あなたは単独のコメントのスレッドを見ています。

残りのコメントをみる →

[–]newdefinition 1ポイント2ポイント  (45子コメント)

At some point the major investors (endowments, pensions, etc.) are going to have consider that whether or not divesting from fossil fuels is the "right" thing to do, it might be a smart financial move. There's two trends in play:

  • Short term - other big investors are divesting, which is different than just selling because they're unlikely to ever buy the stock again. That just lowers the overall demand and lowers the price you could get when you want to sell. It also means less liquidity in the market, so if there's a time when you have to sell you'll get a worse price for them.
  • Long term - oil stocks are going to go down in value eventually, there's a worldwide trend towards renewables. It might take decades, but it's extremely unlikely that oil companies are going to very profitable in 100 years. So, everyone knows they're going to have to get out eventually, but when will that point be? 90 years? 50 years? The more investors divest now, the closer that point gets.

And oil price and demand aren't linearly correlated, a relatively small decrease in demand (say 10-20%) can cause a crash in profitability. It's kind of like the housing market, a lot of investment has been made with the assumption that prices will always go up eventually. As soon as it looks like that might not be true, there's a lot of assumptions that get called in to question, and a lot of 'sure bets' start to look pretty bad.

[–]Isord 2ポイント3ポイント  (42子コメント)

Your long term assumption seems to ignore that many oil companies will diversify as they see the writing on the wall. Though I doubt they will be as profitable with renewables as they are with oil.

[–]isleepinahammock 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Maybe they will, maybe they won't. If I'm a stock owner of say, Chevron, what do I really gain from Chevron getting into the renewable energy business? The people at Chevron have no experience with it. They might develop this in time, but why would I want them to using my money?

In other words, if they have say $10 billion on hand that they would like to invest in renewable energy, I would probably prefer if they just paid that out as a dividend instead. I can then take my portion of that dividend and invest in a company whose whole specializes in solar or wind and is already competitive in the market.

[–]newdefinition -2ポイント-1ポイント  (40子コメント)

Maybe they will? But that's something we could say about literally any company. The oil companies don't have any competitive advantage in manufacturing or installing renewables compared to existing renewable companies, or even unrelated companies like GE or Amazon.

[–]AeonZ 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

GE is the biggest wind turbine manufacturing company in the US and one of the largest in the world. Its heavily involved in renewables!

[–]meeeeoooowy 0ポイント1ポイント  (25子コメント)

Huh? They are investing in renewables...

[–]newdefinition -2ポイント-1ポイント  (24子コメント)

Whether they are or not isn't that important. It's if they're a better investment in renewables than other options. If I think solar is going to be a good investment, do I buy stock in BP for their Solar division, or do I buy stock in SunPower or First Solar inc.? Solar is a tiny portion of BP. Why would I invest most of my money in an industry that's going to decline, and a little bit in a growth industry?

The return on investment in those two solar companies hasn't been great over the last 10 year, but in 2011 BP shut down their solar division because they couldn't make it profitable.

[–]meeeeoooowy -1ポイント0ポイント  (18子コメント)

I said "they", not BP. BP is obviously in a different boat right now.

And whether or not you invest in the them for renewables short term is not important, if they diversify enough and make revenue based on their renewable investments is all that matters for long term.

They are in the business of making money.

[–]newdefinition 0ポイント1ポイント  (17子コメント)

That's not how investing works. They can't just do something new, they have to do it well. Actually not just well, but better than the competition.

Should I invest in Barnes and Nobles because they're diversifying into e-readers? It's a small amount of their business and competition is doing it better.

Not to mention that oil and renewables are substitutes, as one does better, the other does worse. Even if Chevron scoops up some profit as people switch to renewables, it's going to be partially or completely offset by losses from oil.

I want to invest in companies that are going to do something well, and aren't going to get dragged down by a shrinking industry.

Explain why the oil companies have a competitive advantage in solar or wind?

[–]Givensherthed 0ポイント1ポイント  (7子コメント)

They can do something new well because all of the majors have renewables divisions currently. They're learning how to do it well without sinking 90+% of their capex budgets into renewables. Let other groups try to compete in that space when they're fighting for crumbs, and then when there's a full load available, Exxon and chevron will step in and fight. Also, you ignore acquisitions which is a major way that major firms pivot. GE has changed directions plenty of times based on what becomes profitable. You're assuming oil companies can't do the same.

Oil and renewables aren't substitutes. Renewables provide electricity, which doesn't compete with oil. It competes with natural gas, which hurts oil companies a bit, but they certainly aren't substitutes. Further, when oil does well, so does solar, and vice versa, because high fuel prices drives demand for alternatives (ie, high natural gas costs/electricity costs drives the investment in alternatives). You have the substitute thing backwards. Substitutes mean that one being high drives the price of the other up, not down. If one grocery store raises prices by a dollar for chicken by a dollar per pound, suddenly turkey doesn't get cheaper, it rises in price as well because consumers still need poultry, but want to pay less, so supply remains the same while demand rises. Basis economics.

As I've mentioned in other replies to your vastly uneducated comments, chevron already invests in renewables. And them investing in geothermal technologies doesn't really hurt the oil price. Reduced demand for oil or higher supply of oil affects oil price. And again, renewable demand doesn't affect oil because renewables are used to power and heat homes, whereas oil is used to drive cars, planes, boats, and make plastics and other things. If electric cars become competitive, and we're talking actual significant amount of cars, not tesla putting 500k cars on the road over 5 years, then that would affect the price of oil. But electric cars are not what you said. You said renewables. Which is dumb.

Oil and gas isn't shrinking, by the way. Eventually, it will as the world moves away from oil. But demand has been increasing by a huge amount and continues to do so. Maybe in a decade we'll see that level out, but it sure as shit isn't shrinking currently.

For the third time, they don't currently have an advantage in solar or wind because it doesn't make sense to. If you had the opportunity to invest $100 and make either $50 every year but it declines by 3 dollars every other year for the next 20 years or $2 but it'll grow by $3 every year for the next 20 years, what do you choose? You choose the $50 and ride that for 5 years and then buy the other investment from the other guy with all that cash you've made. Now you've made a ton of money on the early investment and picked up the other one as it starts making actual margin! Wow! Business!

[–]newdefinition 0ポイント1ポイント  (6子コメント)

Is your advice really to just "invest in all the oil companies because they also invest in renewables"??

If you had any real data at all, you could pick a couple companies that are better positioned, and say why.

[–]Givensherthed 1ポイント2ポイント  (5子コメント)

That's not my advice. My advice, which I spelled out, is invest in oil companies because they actually make money now and are low risk, relatively high return stocks compared to extremely volatile renewable companies which are more of a gamble than an investment. Then, when renewables become more of a sure thing and aren't propped up by regulatory help and subsidies, then move into that space. It's pretty simple, but if you're absolutely set on misinterpreting everything I say I guess it can become difficult.

Companies that are better positioned than who? In what field? Are you talking solar vs oil? Ok - let's say companies in oil and gas that are better positioned than First Solar.

Exxon, Shell, BP, Total, and Chevron. Most minimajors, like Apache, Anadarko, Pioneer, etc. are also better positioned. All of those companies have pretty large cash reserves, strong financing, and a deep asset base that can be profitable even in low oil price environments. Combine all of that with an oil price that is recovering and long term will continue to recover to levels that are even more profitable - probably in the 60-80 range longer term (long explanation here but basically the supply glut will balance due to reduced capex from larger companies and state run governments and thus reduced production combined with the temporary stoppage of shale plays that are largely irrelevant in the medium term combined with increasing demand from India and China). Data on all of this can be found with the IEA for demand, and then with each individual company's capex numbers - alternatively there are groups that have aggregated these numbers - something like $400 Billion in capex has been cut, and the resulting production loss is pretty well documented. You can search for that yourself.

As far as a group like First Solar, they're heavily reliant on actual cash subsidies from the government - you can find the information widely on the internet, but essentially the gist of it is that renewable energy is the most heavily subsidized energy per unit of energy of any type of energy. If the government decided to reduce subsidies or cut all subsidies, renewable energy would be most affected. First Solar is the strongest of the solar companies, but they're in a market similar to oil - they're selling a commodity and really can only compete on price. That means that if someone comes up with a different method of manufacturing PV cells, or one of their components become more expensive, their competitive advantage disappears. In a developed industry, this isn't as much of a worry. But when your only advantage is price, and the price is of renewable energy is subsidized by the government, and your entire industry is subject to a challenging regulatory environment that could entirely change your business at the drop of a hat (see: energy grids and all the issues surrounding charging solar customers more in order to have them pay their fair share of infrastructure costs or disallowing the selling of energy back onto the grid) and that all could spell reduced demand for solar. Combine ALL of that with the time-proven fact that development of a technology is not exponential forever, and eventually solar growth will drop off somewhat and will not gain in efficiency as fast as it currently does. That could have an effect on the profitability of solar companies and investors outlook on those companies. Solar has widely crashed from its highs in 2008 (FSLR was at ~300/share then), and there are starting to be more realistic expectations for the sector as a whole. Solar is a gamble with a lot of variables. Oil is still a bet, but a much more sure one. It's like betting on the 4-1 horse vs the 25-1 horse.

[–]meeeeoooowy -1ポイント0ポイント  (8子コメント)

Why would you assume they wouldn't do it well? They have an insane amount of resources and energy experience.

And yes, that's how investing works. It really doesn't matter if you invest or not, or the reasons why. That affects shareholders and has nothing to do with their ability to enter a new market.

[–]Mr_Again 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Energy experience isn't really a thing. They have experience extracting fluid from below ground and refining it, which doesn't cross over into solar or wind in any great degree. They would have great experience in carbon sequestration, if carbon taxes ever made that profitable.

[–]newdefinition 0ポイント1ポイント  (6子コメント)

Why would you assume they wouldn't do it well?

I'm not assuming anything. You're the one who appears to be assuming that they would do well, and not just well, but enough better than competitors to make them a good investment. I'm looking for data that would support the decision. Is there any data showing that their renewables business is more profitable than companies that are focusing on renewables?

And they're not in the "energy" business, they're in the business of drilling holes in the ground. If they were to expand in to lithium mining I'd have a lot more favorable view of their chances.

They have an insane amount of resources

Is your argument "companies with a lot of capital always do well"? I don't think we'd have to spend too long thinking to come up with a very long list of large companies that had things go very badly for them.

Active investing is about picking a small number of companies to focus on. The default choice is to not buy, there has to be compelling data to pick a particular company out from its competitors. Since you seem to be so confident, from the current oil companies, which one has the most profitable renewables business? And what percentage of their overall earning does it account for? Because I'm not just going to buy every oil company because "they are diversifying in to renewables", I'd buy the one or two that are doing it the best.

So, do you have any data to back up your strongly held opinions??

[–]meeeeoooowy 0ポイント1ポイント  (5子コメント)

They either will or they won't. No one has a crystal ball.

I do have more insight than most as my dad worked for big name oil companies his entire life. They do dumb things and he didn't drink the kool-aid, but in the end I think they will do what it takes to keep their stronghold on energy. And simply have the resources to do so.

Edit. I'm too busy right now to look up numbers. Also... It's just my opinion...

[–]Givensherthed -1ポイント0ポイント  (4子コメント)

Renewables being a tiny portion of BP is irrelevant. If BP (even how downtrodden it is in this price environment) has renewables as 5% of its portfolio, then it has just as much invested in renewables as First Solar because it's so much bigger. It can acquire First solar or Sunpower easily if it wants to. And it is a much less risky stock to invest into with arguably better returns in the next 5-10 years. Betting on First Solar is a much riskier bet than BP with about the same upside.

There's a reason big oil companies don't invest much in renewables yet. They're not very profitable. When renewables begin to approach profitability levels of oil and gas (either due to increased renewable margins or decreased fossil fuel margins) then that's when you'll see big oil firms shifting to more investing in renewables and buying competitors in that space. It doesn't make sense for them to even start that yet.

And while BP isn't investing in solar, they've invested 75% of First Solar's entire market cap in biofuels alone and also have a significant amount of wind farms.

[–]newdefinition 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Oh, this is brilliant, I'll wait until a company is actually profitable and then I'll buy it for it's new inflated market price? The point of good investing is to be able to predict ahead of time when a company or sector is going to do well and get in before the price jumps.

So, you're investing advice for me is to park my money with a company so they can sit on it for a decade, and then use it buy a profitable company?

I almost can't think of a worse plan.

But if you're so sure, go nuts, buy up that BP stock, you can hold on to it for awhile until I need to cover my shorts.

[–]Givensherthed 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

That's why they have their own investments and renewables divisions? Also, yes, that is how it works. In the oil sector this year, Shell bought out BG, which is a profitable company, in order to gain its production fields and eliminate excess staff, which should give them a net benefit. They still benefit, even if the company is profitable. Apply the same line of thinking to a renewable company. You let them become profitable, and then you buy them, lay off the financial/HR/overhead or otherwise integrate it into your own and save a huge amount of operating costs there while still getting the production. Thus, you've purchased a profitable company and reduced its expenses immediately, allowing you to buy a company that's valued correctly at a premium and still make money off of it. Again, if you had any business experience you would know this.

Investing in a company with a steady dividend and a history of solid growth is a bad plan? Ok.

I'm not sure if you saw this, but BP has been reporting pretty good numbers given the oil price situation, and they've been outperforming expectations. Go ahead and buy shorts.

[–]newdefinition 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Your argument is in favor of any acquisition. By this logic I could invest in any company because they would buy solar companies and gain a competitive advantage.

[–]Givensherthed -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

Not really. I'm saying that it's theoretically possible for any company to make an acquisition and make a profit on it, but it depends on the company. As oil majors are investing smaller (to them, but still hundreds of millions/billions per year) sums in renewables and have started to brand themselves as "energy" companies rather than oil companies, it makes sense for Shell, BP (Beyond Petroleum), Chevron, etc. to make those kinds of acquisitions, and those are the companies that would realistically pivot into renewable energy, as opposed to Apple suddenly deciding to purchase a solar company.

You're making a gross oversimplification and taking a very narrow view of what I said in order to make your point. I'm assuming you're doing that because the alternative is that you're actually an idiot.

[–]Givensherthed -1ポイント0ポイント  (12子コメント)

You can acquire competitive advantage. It is a very distinct possibility that a group like Shell or BP could continue to exploit oil and gas for the next 25 years and then acquire a solar/wind company as solar and wind become more successful, thus gaining the expertise in that field through acquisition.

Total has started doing this with its acquisition of Saft. Do you think Total had any competitive advantage in battery making before this announced acquisition? No. Will the after? Almost certainly.

Also, groups like shell and BP are invested in renewables currently as a learning process. They'll have those skills in the future without having to plow all their money into it now, when it isn't profitable yet. When it becomes profitable, they'll have the background to compete. There's very little incentive to compete there now.

[–]newdefinition 0ポイント1ポイント  (11子コメント)

I could take 100% of the argument you're making it now, and apply it to BP in 2010. There's literally zero data to back up anything you're saying. It's 100% wishful thinking "this big company will gain a competitive advantage". Oh yeah? Are they all going to gain a competitive advantage? Over each other too? They're all going to be the best??

I'm not going to split my investment in renewables over a dozen oil stocks to gain a few percentage points in exposure to the segment I want, and then watch as 90% of my investments lose out to the 10% that did well.

Like I said, you seem to have a very strongly held opinion, but no data to back it up, it's just your opinion.

But that makes sense, for a good investor to outperform, it means that there has to be someone else to take the other side of the trade. It's people like you who have strong opinions with no data to support them that end up taking the other side of good trades.

[–]Givensherthed 0ポイント1ポイント  (10子コメント)

What argument of mine could you apply to BP in 2010? That they can acquire competitive advantage? How does that relate to BP?

How is there 0 data? There's data showing that Total acquired Saft. Google it, it happened in the last week. There's data to show BP, Shell, Chevron, and Total (not sure about Exxon because I haven't looked) are all invested in renewables. It's listed on their public websites and you can find it in their financials. And there's no data on the possibility part of what they could do in the future, but there is plenty of historical evidence of big firms acquiring smaller firms in different industries to pivot to that industry. GE is a huge example - check out their forays into various industries over the years. They've become a true conglomerate and diversified into several industries. Maersk has pivoted into different industries, too. There are plenty of examples of what the oil majors could do. That's your data.

Also, how do you think the oil majors exist today? They don't all have competitive advantage over each other. They all compete in the same space. If there was one who had an advantage, that would turn into a monopoly. There are ~5 large firms that make up the biggest oil companies in the world, and they all compete with each other. They're all slightly better than another at different things, but there's no vast competitive advantage. That's how business works.

It's fine that you don't want to invest that way, and that's your choice. If you truly believe that renewables are the way to go, and that's not an invalid opinion, then you can feel free to invest in renewables now. But given the rate renewables are actually making money, the smart bet is to invest in oil for the next 5-10 years and then pivot into renewables. You're taking on a lot of volatility by investing the way you are. Again, that's fine, but it's not the way that a balanced investor would invest because you're making a bet rather than following a strategy.

I'm up ~8% per year over the last 5 years, but you believe what you want.

[–]newdefinition 0ポイント1ポイント  (9子コメント)

So, you're saying that you can predict the point at which you should 'pivot' from oil to renewables? You can time the market well enough to pick the time to go all in from one sector to another?

If you're really that good and you're only getting a 8% YoY return, you're wasting your talents.

[–]Givensherthed -1ポイント0ポイント  (8子コメント)

Not saying I know when that point is. My guess is about a decade for oil demand to start declining, but it could be anywhere from 5 years to 50 years or more, depending on the continued development of renewables and growth of China/India/other 2nd world countries. There's a point to pivot, but there's not a huge point in taking risky bets with similar levels of return to safe bets until something significant happens.

[–]newdefinition -1ポイント0ポイント  (7子コメント)

but it could be anywhere from 5 years to 50 years or more,

Oh yeah, this is brilliant investing advice. You should pivot sometime in the next 5 decades. That's nearly the dumbest investment advice I've ever heard.

[–]Givensherthed -1ポイント0ポイント  (6子コメント)

That's not my investing advice, that's just a representative view - no one knows when it'll happen. Again, you're being an asshole just to be an asshole without any actual point. There's nothing you're pointing out, you're just purposefully interpreting what I said in the narrowest way possible and making it fit into something you can argue against. Possibly because you're grasping for straws?

[–]pm_me_yahtzee_highs [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

You seem to think we have a way to satisfy our energy needs without oil (and coal and natural gas) in the next fifty to one hundred years. I'm not going to take the time to convince you that this isn't the case if you can't work it out yourself using some simple energy estimations. I will simply say that we are not fifty years away from replacing oil with alternatives. Anyone who tells you we are doesn't know what they're talking about, or, like me, is asking for money to fund research for non-renewables. Our energy predicament is very serious exactly because nobody knows how it's going to work right now, and political winds aside, nobody is seriously considering divesting from fossil fuels because we can't live the way we do without them.

[–]newdefinition [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I'm going to guess you're assuming that all fossil fuel companies will remain profitable as long as production is above 0?

Also, what does divestment have to so with politics?