Just two weeks ago, it was reported that Jose Mourinho had signed a pre-contract to become manager of Manchester United. And now the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf has a report that instead, Louis van Gaal will stay on as United manager for another season. At this point, it is nearly impossible to determine what is happening at Old Trafford. But the fundamental question remains: has van Gaal earned another year?
The most notable thing about Van Gaal’s United is how recognizable and consistent its play has become. Last weekend, United got a big win over Everton to keep pace with Manchester City in the fourth place race. The game was mostly slow-paced, and United managed one incisive attack to create a goal while preventing Everton from ever getting in behind its back line. The few half-chances that fell to the Toffees were parried away effectively by David De Gea in goal.
It was not a dominant performance, but Van Gaal’s side deserved the win. United maintained possession while preventing any easy counterattacks. This is not easy to do. Van Gaal has trained his team in a system of “positional play”—a translation of the Spanish juego de posicion — a style of play in which players respond to each other’s positioning in possession to create easy passing opportunities. Man-U. avoids risky passes that could create a counterattacking opportunity for the opposition, and it maintains a positional structure that enables United to snap into a press to win the ball back if it is lost.
By controlling matches in this fashion, United has been the most consistent team in the Premier League under Van Gaal’s watch. The following chart shows the standard deviation of expected goal difference in all league matches since 2014-15. Van Gaal’s United, more than anyone else in the Premier League, rarely blows out the opposition and rarely gets beaten by much. The variance in his side’s performance is very low, a trait usually associated with consistently bad teams, but here it shows a consistent quality without dominance.
Now, positional play does not necessarily mean steadiness and careful play. The manager most associated with this style is Pep Guardiola, whose Bayern Munich has shown a capacity for dominance unmatched in club soccer. But any tactical concept can be applied in a variety of ways, and Van Gaal’s positional play is aimed at preventing opposition chances while being willing to sacrifice attacking penetration.
This can be seen most clearly in Manchester United’s lack of direct attacking. I define “directness” in the space covered in an attacking move. If more than 60 percent of the distance covered in possession is toward goal, this is a direct attack, whereas if more of the distance covered in possession is horizontal or backward rather than progressing to goal, it is not.
More than any other team in the Premier League, Manchester United does not risk direct attacks, but it plays the easier passes that maintain possession.
So it is not terribly surprising here that fans have become frustrated with the lack of excitement in United’s play under Van Gaal. His club maintains a consistent level of play while rarely romping through victories, and in possession his players focus on avoiding mistakes much more than finding opportunities to strike quickly and directly.
Of course, no one would complain if this consistency also came with consistent winning. But instead the Red Devils had the league’s sixth-best expected goals difference last year and stand seventh this season. Helped in particular by the brilliance of De Gea in goal United has continued to concede a relatively low number of goals given its chances conceded, but this overperformance has merely helped United compete for fourth place.
At this point, we know what van Gaal soccer looks like and what kind of results it creates. It is hard to believe that Manchester United fans or executives should be satisfied with consistently pretty good results earned through a style of play that provides little excitement by design.