全 69 件のコメント

[–]Kai_Daigoji[S] 30ポイント31ポイント  (55子コメント)

We begin by taking a statement from Matt Yglesias out of context:

Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts.

OK, moron, let's take it from the top:

  • The whole point to automation is to reduce labor costs.

  • Therefore, most workers will be fired in the ideal case you're positing.

  • Therefore therefore, the remaining workers sure as Hell will not be getting longer hours.

  • In fact, they will be getting effective pay cuts, because their hours will be shortened.

Yglesias' column is a hypothetical about new minimum wage laws leading to an increase in automation, and how that will be a good thing. So let's actually look at what he says will happen:

What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored.

So he begins by acknowledging that many of the minimum wage workers would be fired. (Keep in mind that's one of derleth's bullet points he called Yglesias a 'moron' for.) He continues:

Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts.

Or in other words, as I read this, some employees would be fired, and some would be promoted, with automation taking over for the lower skilled employees who were fired. Essentially, instead of low level employees and managers, we'd have robots and (relatively) more managers. This is a bit praxy, but strikes me as eminently reasonable.

The advanced robo-restaurant technology would itself be a valuable American export good, and people would be employed in designing and selling it.

Derleth's responds:

Ah, the classic dodge: "You'll lose your job, but somoene else will get a job!" It would be funny if it weren't borderline psychotic. Let me give you a hint: I will care about that if and when that other person starts paying my expenses.

Freeing up labor by creating a new industry seems like a classic Kaldor-Hicks improvement. I share derleth's skepticism about transfers being made, but I don't think someone is a 'moron' for suggesting it.

But get ready for this:

Some low-wage work would be reallocated out of the relatively low-social-value restaurant sector and into things like child care and home health assistance, for which there is ample demand.

Every time you say something new, you plumb new depths of utter fucking idiocy. Jesus Fucking Christ, how much do you want to kill kids and old people?


We already have a problem with nursing home/assisted living workers taking blatantly abusive pictures of the people in their care and posting them to social media. How much more of that do you want?

This is just insane. I don't even know if it needs an RI. It's just madness.

We have a need both a) for more labor in these sectors, and b) a need for better training and screening. These are not mutually exclusive, or zero-sum. And arguing for things that would reallocate labor to them doesn't imply you want to kill kids unless you're a fucking psychopath.

Back to Yglesias:

Since poor people are now making more money, there will be opportunities to sell them things — things like restaurant meals! — that they couldn't previously afford, which in turn creates demand for new jobs.

Seems unobjectionable to me: productivity gains have widespread indirect effects. So why am I not surprised:

Objection: Assumes facts not in evidence.

Rather than explaining the problem, derleth takes a victory lap:

Really, there's no point in dissecting this one. I've already destroyed the foundations it rests upon.

Really? Lowering the cost of food (say, by lowering the cost of an input) doesn't help poor people, or affect the larger economy?

This myopic view of productivity gains explains derleth's view of Yglesias' last statement:

Right now the retirement age is rising from 65 to 67, and most people think it will have to go up to 70. If robots can do a lot of the work instead, we could put it back down to 65 or even to 62 while still growing the economy.

HOW? ... Do you honestly think robots pay taxes? Do you honestly think businesses will accept a tax increase after they fire employees and invest in robots?

Well, no. I think Yglesias thinks that when we make things cheaper, and lower the cost of living, it increases the amount of leisure workers are capable of taking advantage of. A lower retirement age seems eminently reasonable in a world where automation is reducing the cost of living (or in other words, increasing real wages.)

Stop talking. Just stop talking. You're apparently losing brain cells with every goddamned word.

It's like you read my mind.

[–]EdMan2133 7ポイント8ポイント  (6子コメント)

TL; DR

Humans aren't horses, but this one's insane.

[–]Paul_Benjamin 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

Humans aren't horses, but this one's insane.

Could you say 'crazy'?

[–]derleth -6ポイント-5ポイント  (3子コメント)

Humans aren't horses, but this one's insane.

See, /u/wumbotarian? Personal attack.

[–]wumbotarianElegant English[M] 9ポイント10ポイント  (1子コメント)

You were personally attacking someone as an R1. If you don't like our rules, leave.

[–]TheManWhoPanders 7ポイント8ポイント  (9子コメント)

We already have a problem with nursing home/assisted living workers taking blatantly abusive pictures of the people in their care and posting them to social media. How much more of that do you want?

My take on this comment is that /u/derleth is suggesting that not all labour is the same, and that relocating low-skilled individuals (like those working at a McDonalds) are woefully inadequate to operate a nursing home. There is some merit to that argument. There is some skills training required before they can adequately care for the elderly, but there's no reason to believe that training becomes more easily attainable with automation.

[–]Kai_Daigoji[S] 12ポイント13ポイント  (7子コメント)

People aren't born permanently low skilled. If someone is arguing that we can reallocate labor, it's incredibly uncharitable to just assume they aren't also suggest appropriate amounts of retraining.

[–]brberg 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

People aren't born permanently low skilled.

I suppose there's some interpretation of that statement which is correct, but individual variation in genetic potential for intelligence is definitely a thing.

[–]Kai_Daigoji[S] 6ポイント7ポイント  (3子コメント)

People in the past would have said that a certain percentage of the population wasn't intelligent enough to be a scribe, so mass literacy was never going to be possible.

[–]besttrousers 9ポイント10ポイント  (2子コメント)

It's such a bizarre coincidence that these genetic differences dissapear if children get equivalent educations.

Just really bizarre.

What are the odds?

[–]brberg 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

You mean reading specifically? This definitely isn't true for intelligence in general, which you know because I just linked you to an APA report and lit review giving adult IQ heritability estimates of .75 and .8, respectively.

Even for reading, it's not really true. Yes, reading is easy enough that most people can learn the basics, but there's substantial variation in reading skills among adults in the US who have completed primary and secondary education. Those reading comprehension questions on the SAT aren't just for fun.

[–]derleth -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

If someone is arguing that we can reallocate labor, it's incredibly uncharitable to just assume they aren't also suggest appropriate amounts of retraining.

Which they assume will be cheap and easy enough that everyone will be able to complete it, as opposed to not having the tuition and/or not being skilled enough to finish a properly rigorous course.

[–]TheManWhoPanders -5ポイント-4ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm inclined to disagree. Some people are simply more intelligent than others. That and inherent motivation are things that largely limit the degree to which one respecialize.

Pragmatically speaking, it's probably fair to say that most McDonald's workers (that aren't teenagers) are not the easiest to reallocate.

[–]Webby911I no sumner and u don't 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

nice

[–]DeShawnThordason 8ポイント9ポイント  (2子コメント)

Shouldn't this be posted to /r/badbadeconomics?

[–]Webby911I no sumner and u don't 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

/r/worseeconomics for all you vocab enthusiasts

[–]CutlasssInventor of the Uranium Standard 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

[–]notyourproblem1 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

I really don't think that any r1 that opens with "OK moron" can end well.

[–]Tiakoneo-mercantilist 5ポイント6ポイント  (5子コメント)

The real question is what jobs in a restaurant are actually easily automated. I really doubt robots can do the job of line chefs in most cases, and in terms of the job most college kids have, serving, robots will probably never be able to outside of novelty restaurants. The assumption that low paid=low skilled=easily replaceable is kind of annoying.

[–]Kai_Daigoji[S] 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

A RI on the Yglesias piece is probably doable also. I just chose derleth because of the extreme lack of charity.

[–]deathpigeonxSanderista National Liberation Front 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Yglesias kinda discusses that, and he argues that restaurants not being able to automate would be, ultimately, worse for everyone involved.

That said, it doesn't seem too strange to think that even the cooking in a restaurant could be automated, particularly in fast food restaurants.

[–]Tiakoneo-mercantilist 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

In fast food, maybe, but I don't there there yet exists a machine that can distinguish a bulb of garlic from an onion.

[–]deathpigeonxSanderista National Liberation Front 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

No, but you could, potentially, have a machine where all you need to do is feed in the right inputs to the right parts and make food from that, which would mean you could reduce the cook staff by a lot to just a couple of people sorting ingredients for a machine to cut, cook, and put together.

[–]Lars0 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

in terms of the job most college kids have, serving, robots will probably never be able to outside of novelty restaurants.

But just because sushi-boat restaurants are a novelty today does not mean they will be that way forever.

I agree that low paid=low skilled=easily replaceable is kind of annoying.

[–]VodkaHazeTotally not a Rcist 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

2 meta RIs in one week!

[–]grevemoeskrPhysics 101 don't account for air. Hence, physics is bullshit 5ポイント6ポイント  (2子コメント)

Man. People thought I were harsh in my RI. That guy's a straight-up dick

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's okay, I know you meant the derleth dude. #Nordicfrosttoostronk

[–]grevemoeskrPhysics 101 don't account for air. Hence, physics is bullshit 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

#NordicFrostGone #NordicSpringHere

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