全 13 件のコメント

[–]proindrakenzolShekel Hoarder 3ポイント4ポイント  (5子コメント)

Correlation is not causation.

It may not be, but a lack of correlation (re: lowering taxes and a strong economy) does show a lack of causation.

[–]Reg_MonkeyJust run OLS 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

Only if everything is ceterius paribus.

[–]PM_ME_ECON_ARTICLES 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Wait. Wouldn't minimum wage effects on employment be an example of how that's not always true?

[–]proindrakenzolShekel Hoarder 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you're asking.

My statement is that the lack of positive correlation between lower taxes and a better economy shows that simply lowering taxes clearly does not positively impact the economy.

Randroids and supply-siders love the "correlation does not mean causation" thing to throw out all sorts of empirical evidence, but never mention that empirical evidence to the contrary is strong evidence of a lack of causation.

[–]Fraxyz 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Correlation can't measure non-linear dependence.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

It may not be, but a lack of correlation (re: lowering taxes and a strong economy) does show a lack of causation.

Depends on the way you look at it, if you compare US growth prior to 1980 to post 1980 then yes it will appear there is little to no causation. If you look at the level paths of nations post 1980 the ones like Singapore, Hong Kong, and the US have actually gained on the rest of the world despite the fact that one should expect some catchup growth. Plus the JFK and Coolidge tax cuts seem to have been quite stimulative, and the macro literature suggests tax cuts are very stimulative. I wouldn't say it's a settled issue but acting as if there is no evidence for a correlation is a bit silly.

[–]AltAccount4862 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

You know sometimes we ask why people wave away economic theory and consensus from experts whole admonishing others for waving away climate science.

Here, we have someone who waves away both. ¯\(ツ)_/¯

[–]zzzzz94Minister of Bourgeoisie Enlightenment and Propaganda 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

every branch of science is corrupt and filled with shills

[–]HumanKapital_[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

R1 Op cited an article from The Cato Institue by an author who "plays a key role in the libertarian movement" and called it "Economics for Dummies" . The author (who doesn't seem to have a degree in economics) attempts to cast aspersions at all of Keynesian Economics. He talks about the success of "supply-side" economics in the 80's and how the great Regan destroyed the evil Keynes and then attempts to label all economist who believes in Keynesian concepts as liberal. You won't find many economists who don't think investor expectations don't affect investments. He then brings up 8 points why the income tax should be cut.
1. In a free country, money belongs to the people who earn it. The most fundamental reason to cut taxes is an understanding that wealth doesn’t just happen, it has to be produced. And those who produce it have a right to keep it. We may agree to give up a portion of the wealth we create in order to pay for such public goods as national defense and a system of justice. But we don’t give the government an unlimited claim on our money to use as it sees fit.

While this idea does have merits, he seems to heavily underestimate the effects of capital deepening by projects like the American Freeway System and research from programs like DARPA. These projects and many others have greatly increased American wealth.

  1. Private individuals and businesses use money more efficiently than governments do. People with their own money at risk spend or invest it carefully. You don’t find many $600 hammers or insolvent retirement programs in the private sector. Money will do more good for more people in private hands than in government hands.

This is not always true. Due to the economics of scale, it is sometimes a lot more economically feasible for the government to run programs. This is especially true when having to deal when there is no barrier to entry or negative externalities.

  1. High taxes discourage work and investment. Taxes create a “wedge” between what the employer pays and what the employee receives, so some jobs don’t get created. High marginal tax rates also discourage people from working overtime or from making new investments. It’s true, as some critics say, that our current marginal rates of 39.6 percent (somewhat higher when combined with other taxes) do not depress economic output as much as the 70 percent rates that taxpayers faced in 1980. But most economists now agree that a reduction in marginal tax rates will increase output to some degree.

We know Y = C + I + G both G and C are the same, moving one to another has no effect. Countries with higher rates of taxes of the US produce the same amount per capita as the US. Northern Eurpeon Countries have higher GDP per capita but have a higher tax rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

  1. If we don’t cut taxes, Congress will spend the money. If one thing is certain in Washington, it is that Congress will spend every dollar it can get its hands on. Every interest group wants something—a road, a dam, a social program, more teachers, more policemen, more corporate welfare—and members of Congress want to be liked. The only way to “put the surplus in a lockbox” is to let the taxpayers keep it.

Using the tax revenues to close the national debt and invest in infrastructure or research could be a good thing.

  1. Lower taxes are the only real check on the expanding size and scope of the federal government. If we want smaller government, our best strategy is to reduce the amount of money Congress has to play with.

This is an ideological based argument and could hurt the money fiscal multiplier. Government spending should be based on what gets the best fisical multiplier.

  1. For Bush and Republicans in Congress, this may be the most important reason of all: Republicans win when they cut taxes. Tax cuts unite the Republican base. The tax consumers in our society are well organized; the taxpayers need to be organized, too, around a tax cut program. In 1980, 1984 and 1988, Ronald Reagan and George Bush won three presidential elections by promising to cut taxes and then cutting them. George Bush raised taxes and lost the next election. I wager this is a lesson not lost on George W. Bush.

The Bush Administration tried to have their cake and eat it too. They cut taxes and increased spending, this led to large needless deficits. For me personally, this killed the idea of "fiscally conservative" of having balanced budget and spending wisely.

[–]gorbachev 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

High taxes discourage work and investment. Taxes create a “wedge” between what the employer pays and what the employee receives, so some jobs don’t get created. High marginal tax rates also discourage people from working overtime or from making new investments. It’s true, as some critics say, that our current marginal rates of 39.6 percent (somewhat higher when combined with other taxes) do not depress economic output as much as the 70 percent rates that taxpayers faced in 1980. But most economists now agree that a reduction in marginal tax rates will increase output to some degree.

We know Y = C + I + G both G and C are the same, moving one to another has no effect. Countries with higher rates of taxes of the US produce the same amount per capita as the US. Northern Eurpeon Countries have higher GDP per capita but have a higher tax rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

You might want to refine this. At present, it's not good economics. Asserting that taxes, categorically, are not distortionary is insane. It runs in the face of a massive public finance literature.

[–]gorbachev 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

You may want to quote with ">" characters.

[–]MoneyChurchIt's Baaack: r/BE's slump and the return of the sticky trap 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

We know Y = C + I + G both G and C are the same, moving one to another has no effect.

Y = C + I + G is an accounting identity, not a model. It tells you nothing about the effects of taxes, just how you would measure it. You can say that moving stuff from C to G has no effect on Y, but that glosses over how C, I, and G are determined. How are you moving C's over to G, and how are people responding to that? This is why we model optimizing agents---so we have a coherent idea of what we are holding constant when we introduce policy changes, letting us make coherent predictions about their effects.

I would be very interested to see a model with endogenous labor supply that doesn't show a Laffer curve.

Government spending should be based on what gets the best fisical multiplier.

Why? Should fiscal policy always be oriented towards stabilization? Why not spend in such a way that corrects microeconomic inefficiencies, like you were talking about above with economies of scale or negative externalities? Why not leave stabilization to monetary policy, which can't so easily correct microeconomic inefficiencies?