3) Iran's central government is weak. It is not, contrary to what people think, a fearsome and organized regime. It's a hapless mob of pseudoreligious corrupt tyrants ruling over everyone with an imposed form of Islam, itself a problematic religion and ideology, over multiple ethnic groups. Shi'a Islam is forced down everyone's throats, a welfare class is created of families of revolutionaries and war martyrs, and the government is constantly at war with itself. And when Shi'ism isn't forced down people's throats, it's Persian supremacy.

I agree that the central government is not a ubiquitous, omnipresent force. Why should it be any less feared? Monsters run the country, just because they're inefficient it doesn't de-fang them.

90% of Iran is Shia - it's the state religion. I have problems with it, but to claim that Iran is forced to be Shia is an abject lie. Yet again, look at your own country. In God We Trust, One Nation Under God, and so on.

Iran is a Persian country, with Persian culture dating back much, much longer than America has even been a concept. Every country bordering Iran has been influenced heavily by Persian culture. Much like it'd be absurd to say that "American supremacy is forced down Honduras' throat" just because they wear blue jeans and drive cars.

And the welfare class jibe is quite inaccurate as well. Veterans and their families are remunerated and given pensions. My grandfather collects his pension to this day. How are America's vets doing? Fucking awful, that's how. America's poor, veteran or otherwise, are destitute - no different than Iran's poor or any other country's poor. The rich don't care for the poor, welcome to planet earth.

I don't like constantly comparing Iran with America but since you are American and you espouse a classical neo-conservative hawkish rhetoric, I might as well.

4) The Arabs, Baluchis, Kurds and Azeris are oppressed. Every day you hear about a new young Kurd or Arab hung by the government. The Iranian government conducts ethnic killing of Sunni Kurds on a daily basis. Baluchistan and the Kurdish regions are systematically overlooked by the government to ensure their poverty. No languages other than Persian and Arabic are allowed. Azeris want freedom and to join their Turkish brothers to the north, because they cannot exercise their right to be a separate and autonomous group, unrelated to Persians. The Arabs in the southern regions are some of the most oppressed people on earth, and many sided with Saddam when he invaded them.

Persians are oppressed too. Because the government doesn't care about ethnicity because Iranians as a whole DO NOT VIEW ETHNICITY IN A EURO-CENTRIC WAY.

No government willingly gives up its own lands. Not even America. Balochistan and Zahedan are destitute regions, they wouldn't survive on their own to begin with. What Iran has done (or not done) to that region is negligent but it's still Iranian land. Much like south side chicago has a higher murder rate than fucking Iraq but it is still in Illinois.

Azeri Torks are their own ethnic group, yes, but they're Iranian and have been Iranian for centuries. Maybe even longer than America was a god damn country.

You need to prove that people are oppressed on ethnic grounds, you can't just consistently claim it. Prove it. Provide sources.

5) Iran as it is, is too threatening to US, EU, Israeli and Russian interests. Iran has too large of a coastline with the vital Persian Gulf and can muster itself to close the Strait of Hormuz. It also has access to East Asia and Europe, and faces the Caspian Sea and Indian Ocean. Its potential for power projection is huge. Iran's people are PROUD and stubborn, and a simple regime change isn't going to resolve the problem. For us in the rest of the world to have flowing oil and get to our jobs, a country as big and powerful as Iran cannot exist with such leverage over global energy.

Iran doesn't give a shit if the western hegemony doesn't like it. That's the point of being a belligerent nation. It obviously has its own interests, which is surprisingly enough to some racist, orientalist, blinders-on dinosaurs like you.

At least you called the Persian Gulf by its rightful name, though.

6) Finally, even after the JCPOA, there is NOTHING stopping Iran from pursuing nuclear weaponry after the alloted 10-15 years. Once Iran gets that deterrent capability, it becomes hegemon of the Middle East vis-a-vis Israel. That means Iran sets the terms of the region. That means arms race. That means radical regimes in a volatile region with a violent religion get weapons of mass destruction. It is a worst outcome scenario. A divided and weak Iran will never muster the human capital and resources needed to pursue a nuclear arsenal, and it MUST be kept that way for the good of the world, not just the West.

They're allowed to pursue anything they want. They're a god damn nation. If they end up rewriting the future as-planned-by-Karl-Rove then so be it. They have their own interests and objectives, the US is not and cannot and will not and will never be the global executive of every nation-state. Saudi Arabia has been buying billions of arms in recent years, there hasn't been an arms race despite their inherent cracks and massive potential for unrest.

Think Tank cocksuckers from Princeton boys clubs have their intentions, but they live in a bubble and are paid for by foreign interests as well. The world is different, travel a bit. Strike 3.

I'd give it a couple decades. I believe the Kurds will break away first, and then a civil war will ensue as the people overthrow the Iranian regime. Perhaps 10 years of internal war and there would be a multinational effort to cease hostilities, and borders will be redrawn. In the end, it would allow for a much more stable Middle East.

The Kurds are butchers who killed Assyrians too. The Kurds can try to break off but Iran would suppress it, much like any government would suppress that sort of insurrection.

The middle east will be stable if the west stopped propping up the bad guys every single time. From the Bin Ladens to the Baathists to the Sauds. Every single time the US has been wrong. Just give it a break for once.

I'd like opinions.

You're a moron and the ideas and arguments you've espoused are outdated. Not a moron in the regular reddit-insult way, but in the sense that you regurgitate trite, contrived and utterly fraudulent talking points. It's the sign of a weak mind... with no understanding or insight, or critical thinking applied.