God, I've got to say, this big guy is one unique specimen of a footballer, to say the very least.
It's becoming increasingly clear among most of us that Big Felli simply does not work in Louis Van Gaal's Manchester United side. But why? Why is a player who we know from his Everton days can be a real treat being reduced to either a predictable target man or a midfield liability?
He Doesn't Show Up For Big Games
In the last fifteen games Fellaini has played a major role in (played at least forty five minutes), we have won just four: Sheffield United, Liverpool, Derby County and Stoke. This gives us a low win-rate of just 27% (rounded up to the nearest whole number.
There's no doubt that the Liverpool performance was a highlight for Fellaini, hitting the crossbar before Wayne Rooney applied the finishing touches. That's what many think. However, even that performance, despite the praise for him after the match, wasn't a master class by any stretch.
As for the other three are low ranking teams which Manchester United should be winning 100% of the time. That's definitely the case for Derby County and Sheffield Wednesday. As for Stoke, perhaps I'm being a bit hard on them. They're a good side, but they're no Manchester United.
Fellaini has not played particularly well in any of these four matches. The header in the Liverpool match is an outlier in an otherwise poor overall performance in each of these four performances.
Looking past those four wins, he hasn't really turned up against big teams. When have we needed him? Wolfsburg and PSV? Arsenal earlier in the season? Chelsea? He's been invisible. He isn't the player that turns up when we really need him. Sure, he did it against Liverpool, but that overshadowed the rest of his poor performance.
That word does well to describe how Fellaini has played in big matches, and even in general. 'Poor'.
So we've established that he doesn't turn up for big matches. But why?
He Isn't Suited For LVG's Midfield Play
There's no problem with Fellaini playing the short pass back to Smalling, or to the wing backs. He's fine with that. But he lacks the passing quality to make any decent form of attacking pass. He could act as a playmaker while he was at Everton, but now LVG's system encourages him to recycle and retain.
But his actually ability has decreased too. Taking the Liverpool game as example, he had a pass accuracy of 72% (rounded to the nearest whole number). Not bad, some would say. But this is in LVG's system. So let's put some perspective on it.
If Fellaini made 100 passes in a game (highly unlikely, but we'll roll with it). He's made 28 missed passes, in a zone where he is supposed to be an anchor man in the midfield, shielding the defence. In the Liverpool game, he made fifty odd successful passes. So in a place where it's not safe to give the ball away, he's made a mess of fourteen. Not bad looking at the figures, but think of it as if he's on the pitch.
He's in a role where he mainly operates the line dividing the first and second third of the pitch. Imagine miss-placing fourteen passes in that area, most of them short passes due to LVG's philosophy. Very few (if any) of these missed passes are Hail Marys (if anything, he's on the receiving end of them, but we'll get to that later). So how many chances comes out of these miss placed passes. Four? Five? Who knows, but Fellaini's a defensive liability. This, coupled with his lack of attacking vision and passing ability makes him exploitable and, as much as Van Gaal might not want to admit it, not suited to the system.
'Plan B' Is Flawed In Practice
Now there's a second side to Fellaini's game. That is his role as a target man. This is typically employed when we are a goal behind and when we need to apply more 'direct' measures. This in turn transforms the style from 'Cryuff's Guide', which has built the formations of footballing greats like Barcelona and Bayern Munich, to 'Football 101 - The Tony Pulis Handbook'.
This 'Pulis' approach involves putting Marouane up front, dropping the player in the #10 spot (or Zone 14, as I believe some people call it.) back into midfield, and surrounding Fellaini with the quick forwards we have in the likes of Martial.
Now on paper, this doesn't look so bad. We have many prolific long passers in the likes of Daley Blind and Michael Carrick (assuming he is on form) and, to a not quite world class extent, Mata and Herrera. Fellaini is known to be powerful in physique and a dominator of the skies. Some of our forwards can be great at poaching when the opportunity is right. So, looking good?
Well, not in practice.
Predictability plays a huge role in defending this tactic. Hoofing the ball aimlessly up the pitch leaves defenders with plenty of time to gang up on Fellaini or even take him on one-v-one. Now, usually this would give Martial (or whoever Van Gaal throws in as an inside forward) the space to break away with a burst of pace and score. Hey, this worked last season while we were going through the 'Long Ball United' and 'Boring Boring Man Utd' phase.
But it just doesn't work. Defenders have found a way to take Fellaini out of the game. Especially if he's played in a full seventy or eighty odd minutes before we revert to these tactics. This leads me onto my next point.
He Lacks The Work Rate And Intensity To Defend In The System
Now a lot of players crumble under the workload of Louis Van Gaal's pressing system. In the system, you are expected to diagonally press the opposition, essentially 'corner flagging' them, for the lack of a better term. This can be tiring both mentally and physically, constantly shifting across the pitch instead of simply holding your line like some teams do.
But Fellaini is a particular target for laziness. This becomes most visible when the opposition break away on the counter. Playing Fellaini against Leicester is most likely going to be a complete disaster. I think everybody notices when a counter attack breaks, that Fellaini rarely runs back to defend. To be perfectly honest, he doesn't even make an urgent attempt to get back. He jogs back, and he is quite lackadaisical.
Compare this to other players, who put in ninety minutes of pure hearted effort into their performance, and chase players down the entire pitch. Now I know Fellaini is no Hector Bellerin or Jamie Vardy, but he's often deployed for a physical presence against physical opposition, such as Nemanja Matic or other big, defensive midfielders. So he's met with an even match. At least make an attempt to get back for crying out loud!
For A Possession Based Side, He Gives Away Too Much Fouls
...and therefore possession. I know it might be a bit stereotypical to be the person that just assumes 'Fellaini is a big awkward guy who gives away lots of fouls', but it is true. To cut him some slack, a lot of the fouls are players going down easily, either due to Fellaini being significantly stronger than them or otherwise, them going down too easily, knowing that they will get a foul from the ref.
So the referee's and the opposition players are both targeting him for fouls. Therefore, he's a liability, regardless of whether or not he's actually dirty.
This part is short, because it's short and sweet:
Fouls = Possession Given Away
Possession Given Away = Bad (Especially In LVG's System)
Therefore:
Fouls = Bad
I know Felli's got some unwarranted 'flame' (the only way I can describe it) over the past few months (hell, the past few years almost), but I don't think he belongs at United.
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