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Ted Cruz has won the Alaska caucus (nytimes.com)

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[–]Heyitsian [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Take their coats

[–]pcarenza [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

Hey Palin, this one's for you!!!!

[–]GoatTemplarGoats for Cruz [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Sarah "Judas Iscariot" Palin.

[–]chutchins [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

She's not pussy-footin' around anymore!

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (33子コメント)

So, Trump has lost every closed Primary so far. Every primary this weekend is closed. I'm leaning towards Ted will win more this weekend .

That would sort of confirm a lot of Trumps voters are disaffected Democrats.

[–]schermerhornConservative [スコア非表示]  (11子コメント)

Florida is closed it will be interesting to see the results there

[–]LadyLibertyPrime [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

Trump is polling ahead by a good margin there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html

[–]schermerhornConservative [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

True, but it is also a closed primary which Donald has lost in the recent primaries. I'm not saying he won't win I'm just saying it will be outside the norm.

[–]nadafucka [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Don't they usually take that into account when creating polls?

[–]dhamon [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Rubio is from FL, so he'll probably take 2nd.

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

I agree. However my state is crazy and does stupid crap on a regular basis.

I will say that I'm happy Rick Scott didn't endorse Trump like was the rumor. That helps.

[–]shinypretty [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Oh man, so much popcorn needed.

[–]schermerhornConservative [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I'm moving back to Florida later this year so I'll be there to vote in the November elections. I'm really glad Scott didn't give out an endorsement. Now if Marco Rubio will drop out it would make Donald's road a lot harder.

[–]shinypretty [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

I did not realize Florida is closed. That will make things quite intriguing. That's a March 15 one, right?

[–]BarrettBuckeye [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Yep. I'm voting for Cruz in a little under two weeks!

[–]Drpepperbob [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Oh wow you're right, I hadn't thought about that.

[–]tehForce [スコア非表示]  (8子コメント)

Every election I pay closer attention and learn new things. What is a closed primary? Is that where you must be a party member to vote?

[–]shinypretty [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Yep!

Some states, like here in Texas, don't technically have party registration. When I went to vote, the cute little old Vietnamese dude just asked me which party I wanted to vote, and I told him Republican, so he set me up.

Some states, though, you have to have registered as a member of said party before that party's primary.

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (6子コメント)

Correct. So for instance in OK and Alaska you had to be registered Republican to vote in them.... Trump lost. Same in Iowa . Notice he has lost in every state where Democrats can't vote.

Every state coming up this weekend is closed. Of the states, I think Cruz can win Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana.

[–]Jice151 [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Louisiana here.

We actually had a caucus last night for Republican candidate delegates! You didn't vote for a candidate but for one, and only one, candidate's delegates. Our primary is Saturday. The most caucus goers were Cruz. Followed by Trump. Rubio had about 10 ballots cast at my location. Trump had around 50 and Cruz had 150.

Cruz has had a big ground game here.

As a College Republican president, it seems my organization is split evenly between Cruz and Rubio. Cruz has won the youth vote everywhere but Nevada too.

[–]Lefty21 [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

I'm in Kentucky and I honestly have no idea what will happen. Trump was in Louisville yesterday and while there was a noticeable protest group (it distracted him from his speech multiple times), he had many thousands of fervent supporters there.

Rubio is coming to Lexington on Friday (I'm probably going to be there), I haven't heard anything about Cruz coming. I'm torn because I've been a Rubio supporter this whole time, but Cruz is clearly doing better nationally and I don't want to risk Trump getting more delegates.

I guess we'll see what happens Saturday.

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

I know Rand is not supporting anyone, but I would think that a state which elects Rand would be friendly to Cruz.

[–]Lefty21 [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

True, but we've also elected McConnell six times, and we know how well he and Cruz get along.

[–]tehForce [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

OK. I thought open primaries were the exception.

[–]zippityd0dah [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

a lot of Trump voters are disaffected Democrats.

Or, could they be playing a little Operation Chaos?

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Little of column A, little of Column B.

I would ALSO think, lots of Trumps votes in Alabama , etc. are old racist Democrats whose votes normally don't matter in the general election so they have been "republican" for a long time.

[–]zippityd0dah [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I would have accepted "Also yes" as an appropriate response. :)

[–]scandiumflight [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

Ignoring, just for a second, your point on closed primaries I would guess that Cruz takes Kansas. Given Trump's success in Mass, I would guess that Maine will vote for him. That makes Maine a pretty interesting study in how much being a closed primary affects the outcome.

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

You're right. However New England in general seems pretty good for Trump (liberal states).

We'll see. I would think Cruz can win Kentucky and Louisiana being closed as well.

Would also note that both Kansas and Kentucky are Caucus's where Trump has done badly except for the Banana Republic Nevada.

[–]scandiumflight [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I'm trying to figure out where your assessment predicts the influence of non party members influencing the process. It sounds like you don't count Maine as much, since the state was already leaning in Trump's direction. I like/agree with the theory, I think. I just want to hear how/where the effect is taking place and prominent.

Could a Louisiana vs Alabama comparison work?

[–]Glsbnewt [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

I like that theory. It makes sense since Trump has defended Planned Parenthood, supported government-sponsored healthcare, and shows no inclination to reduce the size of government.

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

If he keeps losing in Closed Primaries it's not a theory. If he loses in Maine, a pretty liberal state, that would be even more telling that the actual Republican party is rejecting him.... but DEMS are getting him over the plurality but not majority line.

[–]Glsbnewt [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

To play Trump's advocate, there is an alternate explanation that Trump voters are not regular voters so they did not register in time for the closed primaries, whereas party regulars are more likely to support Cruz or Rubio.

[–]Wolfenstyne [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Right, so people actually involved in the party. That's the point being made when people say "the party has chosen" , well no it hasn't because when they don't let people outside the party decide it votes against Trump. This sort of proves the narrative that the majority of us do NOT want a Trump nomination being forced on us by liberals hijacking the party.

[–]LeMayMayPoster [スコア非表示]  (17子コメント)

That's it! It's over for Trump now, r-right guys?

In all seriousness though, Cruz really is the only one who's actually able to compete with Trump in any significant amount of states. Pretty soon Rubio should be thinking about dropping out, imo.

[–]BarrettBuckeye [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

I wish he would get behind Cruz too, but he won't. Rubio was already making the spin about how he didn't expect to do well on Super Tuesday and how Cruz was supposed to do so much better and has nowhere to go and blah, blah, blah.

All of these guys have massive egos. Otherwise, they wouldn't run for president. Rubio's is getting in the way right now. Trump likely wins even if there is alignment behind Cruz, but it is self-assured destruction if they don't

[–]pearlofsandwichMARCOMENTUM [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Both of those things are true though. Rubio needs to go hard through 3/15. Whomever has more delegates between Rubio and Cruz on 3/16 should offer the other VP to drop out. Rubio's path wasn't supposed to begin until winner-take-all. Cruz was supposed to build a massive early lead through the SEC states, and Trump is undermining that strategy.

[–]GodHatesCanadaLibertarian[S] [スコア非表示]  (5子コメント)

I don't know man. Rubio won Minnesota. As long as we ignore that polling shows him losing his home state by double digits and that he came in 3rd in most super Tuesday states he totally has a chance /s

[–]sisterofshane [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Not to mention that there were three states that he didn't even make the vote threshold in.

[–]ryantiger658 [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

"As the Minnesota Caucuses go, so go the nation" - David Axelrod

[–]Rommel79Conservative [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I thought you were serious at first.

Bloomberg's live delegate count shows Rubio with 106 now compared to Cruz's 226 and Trump's 316. The longer Rubio stays in, the more he guarantees a Trump presidency.

[–]pearlofsandwichMARCOMENTUM [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

The polling in FL is garbage. It is a closed primary. Rubio will outperform the polls for sure.

[–]leeringHobbit [スコア非表示]  (8子コメント)

Cruz really is the only one who's actually able to compete with Trump

With the exception of Texas where he crushed it, that's not really clear. He got only 1 delegate more than Trump in Alaska, and only 2 more than Trump in Oklahoma. 4 more in Minnesota. Without Texas, those gains would be negligible.

[–]BcTsarIvan [スコア非表示]  (6子コメント)

He only got about 50 delegate less then Trump if Rubio wasn't in the race he would almost currently be in the lead right now.

[–]eWal_Jar [スコア非表示]  (8子コメント)

This is seriously amazing. If he can pick up momentum before the conservative states, there is no telling how well he can do!

[–]leeringHobbit [スコア非表示]  (6子コメント)

the conservative states

Which conservative states? Most of the Deep South is over.

[–]IronPathologistSowellian Buckleyite [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

Look back a few elections. It's generally the Jimmy Carter states that are giving him trouble. People there are less conservative than they are "anti-establishment"... Trump's bringing them all back into the Democratic party. Shoot - the people I know in my area that like him were all Democrats in the 70's... It's a big part of his base. The same group of states with both high Evangelical populations and high teenage pregnancy rates - their conservativism is about as well-observed as their religion.

[–]leeringHobbit [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

I know in my area that like him were all Democrats in the 70's

Don't you think it's possible Trump could beat Hillary by attracting white Democrats, in a way that Cruz can't ? Especially since turnout is so much lower this time round on the Democratic side?

[–]IronPathologistSowellian Buckleyite [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Would it matter much if he did? The same case was made for the last two.

[–]SilverBulletKY [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

You missed the sarcasm

[–]scandiumflight [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Which conservative states?

Utah, the nation's most conservative state.

[–]-Rory- [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Getting one more delegate is amazing?

[–]NYCMiddleManLibertarian Conservative [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

And yet this will somehow be spun into a Rubio victory by the MSM and the GOP Establishment.