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SUPER TUESDAY DISCUSSION THREAD (self.badeconomics)

EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced が 投稿

Urnbabyurn says we can have one so lets see those great election night memes of the dankest quality

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ベストトップ論争中古い順Q&A

[–]MrDannyOceanpenguin economist 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Clinton is running above expectations every single state other than Oklahoma vs Sanders

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-11918052

[–]Llan79 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Sanders winning Colorado, OK and Vermont will probably drag the race out a little longer, but Hillary is almost guaranteed to win at this point. But Rubio winning MN and Cruz winning TX+ OK means maybe a brokered convention on the GOP side - good for the Dem nominee.

[–]HandjobSally[🍰] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Imagine the fallout if the Republicans managed to push an establishment nominee out a brokered convention.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

Two words.

Draft

Romney

[–]HandjobSally[🍰] 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

The worst thing to come out of Trump president run is the amount of bold and large font comments on Reddit.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

MAKE MITT GREAT AGAIN

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

BRING BACK MITT

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

Remember my War of the Five Presidents? Tonight is simultaneously the Red Wedding and the invasion of Winterfell. The Lannisters and Greyjoys have killed Robb Stark and with it, Winterfell's last hope.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Who would be Stannis though? Webb?

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Hillary. She is unlikable, never smiles, insanely competent, and will brutally murder Bernie in the most underhanded way to win the throne.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I wonder what will be her Blackwater.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

Bad nights for Sanders, Rubio and Cruz. They all fell short of the amount of delegates they need to be on track for the nomination. Rubio might not meet the 20% threshold in Texas and Alabama, which is huge. Cruz relies on southern, more conservative states, so while he did okay, he still is far behind the amount of delegates he would need to be on pace for the nomination. Rubio better pray that Kasich drops out.

What I am arguing is based on 538's projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/

Anyways, it seems to me that this election is pretty damn set overall. We are going to have Clinton and Trump as the nominees. Only think that could save Republicans is a brokered convention, which honestly seems like a very big possibility at this point. But if they do make a deal and Republicans nominate someone else, we will likely see Trump run as a 3rd party candidate.

[–]gizitistatismologist 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Cruz relies on southern, more conservative states, so while he did okay, he still is far behind the amount of delegates he would need to be on pace for the nomination.

These were also, like, all the states he would do best in.

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

does anyone have the picture of darth maul battling with obi and qui, except it is trump, rubio and cruz - respectively?

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 3ポイント4ポイント  (7子コメント)

If Bernie wins 4 states after how terrible the GOP night was... I've fucking give up on this cycle.

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

But he berninated the countryside!

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 7ポイント8ポイント  (3子コメント)

Bernie is done. Bernie was done after S.C. This sub needs to get over him. He has a 0% chance of winning. He got smoked on super delegates and can't win in the south. Hillary knows this. Everyone knows this.

People vote for different people for many different reasons. Everyone has understood for the past 5 days that Hillary will be the candidate for the Dems. Most Bernie voting is now signaling to Hillary that she needs to be aware of:

  • Workable trade assistance
  • Income inequality may not be a huge economic issue but it is a big social issue (at least on the left)
  • The white working class is there for the taking if the Dems want them (at least a good chunk of them)

Don't get lost in a politicians most fervent believers. They are always over the top. Bernie votes today are just signaling the Dems on what could be important in the future.

[–]MisterScrewtapeSucking Federal Reserve cock since 1993 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Most of us know this. I just get so annoyed by the hivemind.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

If you look at my recent comment history, it's clear I've shifted from Bernie bashing to "OH MY GOD DONALD TRUMP!!!" mode. And yes, Bernie is still well behind Clinton. But dammit, in a night where my last distant dreams for the GOP died, I would have liked Hillary to simply curb stomp Bernie. Going 7-4 isn't enough for me anymore.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I completely feel you, having her crush him would have been the highlight of my week, now what do I have to look forward to?

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Don't worry, Sanders had a bad night.

[–]Kelsig 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Predictwise has showed a doubling of his likelihood of getting the nomination after today

[–]roboczarWe're here, we're hetero, get used to it! 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

My hometown is officially feelin' the Bern. I can never return. I shall remain in my landlocked exile.

[–]jsmooth7 5ポイント6ポイント  (27子コメント)

Maybe Cruz isn't that bad? At least he's better than Trump right?

* Listen's to his speech *

Oh yeah that's right, he's insane too. :(

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (26子コメント)

Though Cruz is lightyears ahead of Trump or Sanders in my opinion.

Though after Today it's looking more and more like I may have to do something that as a republican I've told myself I would never do... Support Hillary.

[–]jsmooth7 8ポイント9ポイント  (15子コメント)

Just from his speech alone, we know Cruz supports:

  • a flat tax
  • the IRS is gone
  • tear up the Iran nuclear deal
  • repeal Obamacare
  • investigate Planned Parenthood for something

So yeah you're pretty much right. (God damn the bar is set low this election.)

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (14子コメント)

  • I support a flat tax
  • I don't have enough information to make an informed opinion on Iran deal.
  • Obamacare was neither good nor bad.
  • I agree with you on IRS being necessary and Planned Parenthood being good.
  • you also missed him being stupid on gold standard and audit the fed.

I'm not saying Cruz is good, just we have so many bad candidates this election that he isn't the worst. (I will however say that in my opinion Bush, Rubio, Christie and Kasich were all good candidates. So it hasn't all been bad this cycle)

[–]Murray_BannermanListen all a ya'll it's an Arbitrage 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

Flat tax? Why?

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 -1ポイント0ポイント  (2子コメント)

eliminates all loopholes, simplicity has economic advantages, is fairer (based on my more conservative definition of the term), studies have shown that it's better at raising revenue and is better at fostering economic growth and it has worked well in the Eastern European countries that have implemented them.

Though Personally I'd rather elimate all income and corporate taxes, implement a high sales tax (that exempts necessities) and convert welfare to a basic minimum income so that it's not too harmful to low-income families. Flat tax is better then what we have now though, in my opinion.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

worked well in the Eastern European countries that have implemented them.

Where?

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Hungary, Slovakia, Rumania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia and others.

Pretty much the entire region had flat taxes at one point, then Ukraine, Czech and Albania switched away.

[–]Kelsig 2ポイント3ポイント  (6子コメント)

Obamacare was neither good nor bad.

Unless you consider the whole 17 million additional insured people...

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (5子コメント)

though it also added some harmful regulations and was a step in the wrong direction for healthcare reform.

[–]Kelsig 2ポイント3ポイント  (4子コメント)

My point was that generalizing it as neither good nor bad isn't really logical.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Though couldn't you argue the same thing in regards to generalizing it as good, like you have done?

I've acknowledged that it's done some good, it's also done some bad though and overall I don't think it's clear whether the good outweighs the bad or the bad outweighs the good, and thus I think my assessment that it's neither good nor bad is a fair one.

[–]Kelsig 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

I didn't say it was good besides one normative argument

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Well sorry for interpreting your comments as supporting Obamacare, I'd be very surprised if you now told me that you don't.

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

I think what he meant is that there hasn't been a really ideal Republican candidate, they all have one flaw or another (mostly overly aggressive foreign policy) but yes, I agree that Bush, Rubio, Christie, and Kasich are good

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I'm fairly hawkish on foreign policy though. I agree every candidate is flawed in some way, but welcome to the real world, nobody is perfect.

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

What is your personal foreign policy

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (5子コメント)

Why? I'd rather spend a bunch of money on an non-optimal education policy then go back to the gold standard and drastically cut the social safety net.

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

There's also the whole climate change denial thing. That alone outweighs all of bernies minor offenses.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Well I'm really big on the importance of entitlement reform and Cruz is pro-free trade while Sanders isn't.

[–]Kelsig 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/23/exclusive-ted-cruz-obamatrade-enmeshed-in-corrupt-backroom-dealings/

what

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Entitlement form in the hands of Cruz would be horrible. They would be cut far beyond the levels needed to balance them. Trade to me is second order to me if we're talking Bernie versus Cruz/Trump.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

Though (and yes this can be said about both candidates) in theory he'd have to moderate his views on entitlements to get that through congress.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 6ポイント7ポイント  (3子コメント)

I wouldn't say Cruz is necessarily better than Bernie.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

I would, but I'm a conservative and you're a liberal so there's a good chance that our politics is what's influencing or opinions.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's more that Bernie wouldn't be able to implement his terrible ideas while Cruz would. If Democrats controlled both houses and most state governments, I'd at least think about Cruz over Bernie.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Fair enough, that's certainly a valid assessment.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Is Sanders guaranteed victory in Minn rn? Because predictit is shitting its pants.

[–]HandjobSally[🍰] 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

The NY Times map was behind.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm aware. They also haven't even started on the metro area where Clinton was projected to do well.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

If Rubio gets less then 20% of the vote in all three of Tennessee, Alabama and Texas I think I'm going to cry.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

So I want Hillary to blow out Sanders everywhere. But I just bet $15 that Sanders would win Minnesota.

I think I value money more than Sanders supporter tears. Those will come later on either way.

[–]bob625 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Gotta hedge

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

S4P called me Pete Rose for betting against the candidate I support lmao

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 2ポイント3ポイント  (8子コメント)

Let's pour one out for Minnesota for being so fucking reasonable.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (7子コメント)

Bad news. The NYT's election returns model is projecting a Trump/Sanders win.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Not anymore, it now has Rubio by 11%.

I'm confused by NYT calling Sanders for the Dems though, because Hillary led by 34% in the one poll done in Minnesota this year and with 1% of the vote counted Hillary is winning.

So actually I'm with u/darkestbeforethedon here, Minnesota appears sane. (at least for now)

edit: and I spoke too soon, 15% in and Sanders has a 20% lead in the votes counted.

[–]Sogsworth 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

NYT hasn't called it in its coverage of the results; its election model is projecting a Sanders win, probably based on demographics.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

So it seems. Still 56% voting for Carson+Trump+Cruz.

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

I live in a bubble. I'd appreciate it if you let me stay in it for just one more night.

I wouldn't get mad about Sanders winning there. He is losing the overall race anyway. I wouldn't mind the Dems going after the white working class a little more (less for the GOP to fire up). Sanders is doing well on the Iron Range and I for one think that is a good thing.

If Minny hands Trump a 3rd place finish, they will have done more than enough.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

I want Sanders to lose in MN just because it brings this primary one more step closer to ending.

For the GOP the sad thing is even a Rubio win in MN won't really make his night any better. A decently strong Cruz and Trump showing means that the chances of a Trump win go up after tonight.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Real talk: Reddit is not the electorate. And Trump is light years worse, both in terms of his actual positions and the likelihood of him becoming president, than Bernie.

I'd rather see Bernie win another state if it means that Trump becomes a little farther from the White House.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

A Trump presidency scares me. The chance he gets us into a war is far too high for comfort.

[–]Post_Capitalist_2I am the hypothetical can opener ama 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

Watching Trump yell answers at the crowd while Chris Christie stands behind him looking like some fat Italian mafia guy is one of the funniest things I have ever seen. Its like a sketch on SNL thats actually funny. Just for the comedic possibilities I have to support Trump now. I can't believe I actually saw that.

TrumpChristie2016

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (6子コメント)

Yeglasis goes all in on the GOP is doomed thesis.

The problem Republicans have is that is that these flaws are not flaws that a Republican Party politician can effectively articulate to an audience of Republican Party primary voters.

  • Republican Party primary voters think that white people being shamed for racism is a bigger problem than white people doing racist stuff.

  • Republican Party elites are ideologically committed to the defense of inherited wealth and opposed to the regulation of business in the public interest.

  • Republican Party elites essentially share Trump's least-popular and most-obviously-ridiculous policy idea — an enormous tax cut for the right — so they can't criticize it.

[–]WorldOfthisLordDoesn't actually know economics, but hangs out here anyway 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Reihan Salam has a much more optimistic take on the situation than Matty Ice. Both have a point, as much hinges on whether Trump wins the nomination, how GOP voters and GOP politicians react, and whether he wins the election.

But one thing that's worth repeating is that the Trump phenomenon is enormously complex, as any national political movement must be, especially one that's so confounded observers. Attempts to boil it down to "that one thing the GOP did I didn't like" is facile. You basically need a history of the US since at least NAFTA and Perot, if not the whole sixth party system. All the articles and tweets and whatnot about why Trump get part of the solution, but none can come close to a full explanation.

There were a ton of necessary conditions, but scarcely any sufficient ones.

[–]lorenzorye 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't see how they are doomed while they control most state legislatures and governorships.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

Yeah this is a huge problem I've had with the anti-Trump reaction to Trump.

Having a liberal go on CNN or MSNBC and tell you why Trump is a bad candidate is the most surefire way of getting a republican to want to vote for Trump.

You can't convince Republicans to oppose Trump by doing that, so please stop it.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (2子コメント)

Except a lot the Trump hate is coming from the more moderate wing of the GOP. It's not just a liberal phenomena.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

but that crowd never got or sought out national media attention.

Before this week none of the moderate republican super pacs and not many major republicans were campaigning against Trump. They were more just sitting by and assuming he would implode.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

This is false. Fox news is very anti Trump, there was a recent #neverTrump hashtag, the fact that the race has been framed as the quest to be the anti-Trump. The fact that there hasn't been a lot of effort directed against Trump should be understood as a tactical error. Not implicit support among the GOP establishment.

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Minnesota. The last semi-sane state in the union?

[–]thabonch 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

For the GOP, at least.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

At least the sanest state tonight, with both Clinton and Rubio winning

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thank God it won't be a complete loss for Rubes

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Assuming Sanders wins 3 states, can Hillary safely pivot towards the general election?

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, her margin of victory has been far greater than Sanders. She is overall in a comfortable position to take the nomination.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/

[–]Vagabond21They call me "Bond" because the return on my comments is fixed. 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Fuck PredictIt.

[–]laboreconomist3ClintonBro, Cuck Knight for Shillary 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

This is why I'm voting for the free market. #thefreererthemarketthemoreaccuratethepredictionresuts

[–]badeconThrowaway 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Why?

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Cuz many of us are losing our monies. I'm down 60% now.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 2ポイント3ポイント  (5子コメント)

Wasn't Minnesota suppose to close at 9 pm EST? That's what every site says and yet 48 minutes later and polls are still open.

[–]kmathew92 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I was just on PredictIt and his shares all of a sudden shot up from 30 cents to 85 cents for Minnesota

[–]badeconThrowaway 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

They caucus by hand. It takes forever. Huge turnout there too.

http://www.startribune.com/

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Thank you, why no entrance polls yet though?

I'm just getting impatient because my boy Rubio's has to win Minnesota if he wants to get nominated.

[–]badeconThrowaway 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Neither Norwegians nor Somalis believe in exit polls.

[–]Kai_Daigoji 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

We've got such a weird demographic breakdown.

[–]badeconThrowaway 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Cruz is going to win Minnesota.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oh God No! Please Not! Minnesota is Rubio's only chance to get a win tonight.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 23ポイント24ポイント  (8子コメント)

You know things are bad in the GOP when fucking Marco Rubio is described as a moderate.

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

He is a decent candidate for moderates but he isn't a moderate

[–]MisterScrewtapeSucking Federal Reserve cock since 1993 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

>MFW

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

2016 GOP

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

Americas overton window is completely fucked.

[–]jorioWhen does baseball season start? 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

You mean fucking awesome? Your revolution is over Lebowski.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's killing me to describe him as such.

[–]KnightModern 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

no shit

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

No

Fucking

Kidding

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 9ポイント10ポイント  (2子コメント)

Trump+Cruz+Carson regularly clearing 60% is fucking scary. The Extra Crazy Wing of the GOP is going to have to destroy itself for a "moderate" to get through.

[–]WorldOfthisLordDoesn't actually know economics, but hangs out here anyway -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

Trump and Cruz occupy different wings, despite superficial similarities. They're both vehement opponents of the GOP establishment, and Cruz spent several months with his head wedged up Trump's ass, but in many cases their policies are different. Cruz is all about the current GOP philosophy taken to its absolute limit (free market, religious convictions, etc.), whereas Trump is operating with his own philosophy and is turning the GOP upside down while doing so. He supports keeping entitlement programs intact, hates free trade, is clearly not religious at all despite his overtures, praises Planned Parenthood, and of course is a fanatic on immigration.

Now, his extremism on immigration does buy him a lot of favor with the far right (as the Sessions endorsement shows), but he actually polls much better with moderates and in traditionally blue states, because he supports a number of moderate policies. That's why Christie has endorsed him and why a lot more of Jeb! and Kasich's supporters would go to him and a lot more of Cruz and Rubio's supporters would go to each other than simplistic "lanes" narratives would suggest.

Bottom line: The Trump phenomenon is extremely complex, and attempting to blame it just on GOP policy during the Obama years is the height of oversimplification.

[–]nolvorite 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

one hell of a political science study I'd say. lol

[–]bartink 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

Go home GOP. You're drunk.

[–]howstrangeinnocence 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

Cruz won Oklahoma

This state didn't disappoint me for once

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sanders won Oklahoma.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

But so did Bernie. :/

[–]Sogsworth 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

These live graphs from the NYT are fascinating: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-democrat-delegate-estimates.html

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

NYT takes the reward for most useful election night coverage this primary. Followed closely by 538.

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can't stop staring at the caterpillars.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

That's so useful, I've been trying to do the math in my head all night.

[–]magnax1 3ポイント4ポイント  (15子コメント)

So if the republican convention is brokered, what are the chances of someone like Romney being the nominee last minute?

[–]smoking_JayCutler6 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I think Rubio would end being chosen as the nominee if there's a brokered convention

[–]magnax1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I agree, just thought maybe the republicans wouls try to distance themselves from the whole spectacle

[–]lorenzorye 3ポイント4ポイント  (12子コメント)

Hopefully bad.

Hillary 2016.

[–]magnax1 6ポイント7ポイント  (4子コメント)

Tbh, I think Rubio would do much better against Clinton than Romney. Romney was not well liked, especially before the first debate.

[–]lorenzorye 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

Idk, he'd be able to leverage resources to match Clinton's and he's much more likely to appeal to moderates than Shut-Down-The-Mosques-Rubio.

[–]magnax1 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

As far as Im aware Rubio said hed shut down mosques which inspire extremism, which I think can already be done anyways. I mean, you can't foment insurrection legally.

[–]lorenzorye 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's basically McCarthyism for Muslim people tho.

[–]magnax1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well, if he started accusing people of being muslim spies blacklisting muslims and holding trials....then yeah.... thats not what he suggested though.

[–]badeconThrowaway 4ポイント5ポイント  (6子コメント)

How many of us pretend to be Hillary supporters because no one else is publicly accepted here? I am sure u/lorenzorye isn't the only one.

[–]Murray_BannermanListen all a ya'll it's an Arbitrage 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I started posting at BE when Sanders released his economic plans, which shifted me. Very convenient timing.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

See my flair. And /u/besttrousers is big on the Rubio bandwagon.

[–]Jericho_Hill#StickyLivesMatter #SupportTheMods 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

i voted for kasich today

[–]lorenzorye 7ポイント8ポイント  (2子コメント)

I do not pretend to be a Hillary supporter. I am Hillary Clinton.

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Where's my shillin check. I'm tired of getting paid with dank memes.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oklahoma went to Sanders no shilling checks for anyone.

[–]TheDesertFox929A conservative in the wild 10ポイント11ポイント  (4子コメント)

Welp, not looking good for Rubio. I suppose I might as well get my "Hillary for Prez because she's not nearly as bad as Trump" t-shirt.

[–]laboreconomist3ClintonBro, Cuck Knight for Shillary 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Excuse me, but in what world is the preference set {Rubio > Clinton > Trump} rational?

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

As I mentioned before, after tonight Trump will be ahead of Rubio by 200 delegates, but if Rubio can get Florida (assuming he can win on home turf) and Ohio (assuming Kasich drops out and endorses him), he'll be only 50 delegates behind Trump on March 15th, and will have momentum.

I'm still holding out on the belief that Trump is inevitable.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

He could win Arkansas and Minnesota though.

[–]TheDesertFox929A conservative in the wild 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yea, I hope he can pull them out and meet delegate thresholds in other states like Texas. Maybe just maybe Trump can be stopped by Cruz or Rubio. If not though, I hope to be one of many Republicans who say that we're not disgracing our party by voting for a demagogue in chief.

[–]Webby911What is RIII? 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE SICK AND TIRED OF HEARING ABOUT THESE GODDAMN STICKIES

[–]mobysniperProponent of Geckonomics 10ポイント11ポイント  (2子コメント)

#Rigged.

[–]thesublieutenantWill shill for $100. 8ポイント9ポイント  (1子コメント)

CNN had a countdown timer going for the Arkansas polls. Literally hit 00:00 and Wolf goes "we have a prediction" and announced Clinton won Arkansas.

[–]beguiledfoil 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

You can't explain that.

[–]p0mthe choice in being a central banker is endogenous 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Less than 500 votes between Clinton and Sanders in MA? Damn knew I shouldn't have swerved around those campaigners on my way to work today. I kid I don't even drive.

[–]p0mthe choice in being a central banker is endogenous 9ポイント10ポイント  (1子コメント)

Time for Clinton '92 '96 '08 '16 baby!

[–]lorenzorye 11ポイント12ポイント  (2子コメント)

FeelTheClint

[–]Kai_Daigoji 9ポイント10ポイント  (0子コメント)

Apply if Berning sensation lasts more than 6 weeks.

[–]KnightModern 15ポイント16ポイント  (0子コメント)

#NetflixAndChillary

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 2ポイント3ポイント  (3子コメント)

Are the states after Super Tuesday more or less favorable towards Trump than the ST states?

[–]he3-1 9ポイント10ポイント  (1子コメント)

More mixed then the states before.

Assuming he maintains his 30-40% wins then it will likely be a brokered convention, the two routes to the nomination are either winning an outright majority of delegates or doing so in 8 states. He likely needs to win in all but one of South Dakota, New Jersey, Montana, Nebraska, Delaware, Arizona, Ohio or Florida.

Even if he does manage to accomplish one of the two routes the RNC could simply ignore the results, the national voting/caucusing for nominees only emerged 40 years ago and parties are not bound by the results.

[–]HumanKapital_ 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I personally believe that will result in a mutiny with Trump running as a third party, which could result in other Trumpers running in the Senate and House

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Red.

Shirts.

[–]howstrangeinnocence 23ポイント24ポイント  (0子コメント)

All these redditors supporting Sanders and alleging voter fraud makes sense when you realize they are the same people that tried to track down the Boston bombers.

[–]zzzzz94Minister of Bourgeoisie Enlightenment and Propaganda 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

here is the live results/interactive map

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

They don't even have colors for the Republicans who aren't Trump.

Edit: half an hour later, the other Republicans showed up on the map.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 7ポイント8ポイント  (3子コメント)

/u/urnbabyurn /u/wumbotarian should we sort this by new?

[–]wumbotarianArbitrageur in the rare pepe market 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes. Idk how to do it.

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Done

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

<3

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 14ポイント15ポイント  (2子コメント)

Clinton has a political machine that has been carefully honed since 1991 to ruthlessly win elections.

Bernie has thousands of door-to-door volunteers.

Bernie: man of the people. Hillary: shill for Big Automation.

#feeltehbern

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 11ポイント12ポイント  (1子コメント)

I know the rules are changing constantly under the tyranny of the mods but I think you're supposed to shitpost in the silver thread.

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 11ポイント12ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm politically shitposting in the SUPAH TUESDAY thread

[–]pm_me_utils 8ポイント9ポイント  (7子コメント)

The Republicans: party of racists, or party for racists?

[–]smoking_JayCutler6 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

LIEbruls are the real racists

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 8ポイント9ポイント  (5子コメント)

Most kangaroos have tails but not all animals with tails are kangaroos.

[–]pm_me_utils 5ポイント6ポイント  (4子コメント)

GOP: Not racist, but #1 with racists

[–]Commodore_ObviousShilling is my business, and business is good. 9ポイント10ポイント  (3子コメント)

I dunno, did you see Bernie supporters when black people voted for Hillary?

[–]Sogsworth 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

Bernie bros on Reddit may be racist but I doubt they are representative of Bernie supporters more generally. Look at this poll, for example.

[–]Commodore_ObviousShilling is my business, and business is good. 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

I wouldn't say racists are representative of all Bernie bros, just like racists aren't representative of all republicans. But are there actually fewer racists among Bernie bros or is it just that their ideological beliefs happen to align with the answers perceived as not racially resentful in that poll? The answers would have been the same if "the poor" replaced blacks and "the rich" replaced whites in those questions.

[–]Sogsworth 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm sure that has something to do with it; it's difficult to measure racism, of course.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

Rubio is disgustingly low in VA for YES right now on Predictit. Snatch some of those up. Really wishing I had put some on Shillary in CO when she was low. I should have had more faith in those pot smoking skiers.

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

My portfolio is down 40% :-(

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college 3ポイント4ポイント  (12子コメント)

If Sanders ends up losing everywhere but Vermont, there will be no reason to think he still has a shot.

So go Oklahoma and Minnesota, do the right thing and put an end to this.

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 2ポイント3ポイント  (11子コメント)

I see him as doing what Huckabee did by staying in the race after losing the math. It's to keep the message going.

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college -1ポイント0ポイント  (8子コメント)

What makes me a bit irritated and feeling that Bernie is a scoundrel is that he became a Democrat months ago and will keep trying to pull Hillary to the left (hurting her in the general election) and letting his campaign and brigade criticize her (hurting her in the general election). He's hurting the Democratic party for ideological purposes.

[–]he3-1 7ポイント8ポイント  (5子コメント)

Sanders works for Trump.

[–]ampersampmarginal futility 5ポイント6ポイント  (2子コメント)

but I thought Trump worked for Hillary?

[–]he3-1 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

Its the circle of life. Sanders works for Trump who works for Hillary who works for the Rothschild's.

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Sure. If the US ends up with President Trump, the single biggest culprit would be Bernie Sanders.

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I don't think it's that clear that it hurts her. Many people would argue that a lively but positive primary battle can strengthen the candidate by emphasizing her support while getting more attention.

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can see your point, it's not good if a candidate flies to the nomination. However I still believe that unnecessary bashing and pulling her away from the median elector after the party have already converged toward her is negative to her campaign and to the entire party.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

And, more importantly, push Hillary to the left. I suspect that was the main reason of his campaign to begin with, I cannot imagine he actually ever thought he could win this.

[–]lorenzorye 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

But redditors sure did.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 11ポイント12ポイント  (3子コメント)

So exit polls look like we're not seeing a Trump sweep - Kasich might win VT, Rubio might win VA, Cruz might win TX.

[–]FluffyerthanthouA little Walrascal 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Except then the republicans can broker the convention

[–]Kai_Daigoji 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

The republican delegate math is genuinely terrifying though. With as many winner-take-all states as they have, Trump could become the nominee without ever breaking 50%.

[–]bdubs91You Can't Scrub The Dub 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

Plz America

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ok, now Rove is using his clipboard so this should get fun.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 11ポイント12ポイント  (2子コメント)

Minorities don't have internet

[–]Vagabond21They call me "Bond" because the return on my comments is fixed. 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I must be in the minority of minorities who have it.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

same

[–]wshanahana slightly less shitty libertarian 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

saw this in another thread.

Bernie Sanders right now

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

Remember how Bill Bradley had such a lasting career after 2000? Me neither.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Right, but even by challenging the sitting Vice President and almost winning, he showed that the American People had a Hunger for CHANGE!!!!

/s

[–]Kai_Daigoji 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

I'm already half thinking Bernie's going to get Vermont, and that's it.

EDIT: And I'm wrong. Way to go, Bernie, you're OK in our book.

[–]HumanKapital_ 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I thi k he will stay in to raise "awareness", you will just see him and Hillary attacking the Republicans

[–]elev57 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Massachusetts should be interesting. All the others should be Clinton.

[–]Vagabond21They call me "Bond" because the return on my comments is fixed. 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

all in

[–]Webby911What is RIII? 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

squad

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can't decide whether to buy Trump shares to hedge against my anger from hm potentially winning, or to buy Clinton who I think will win with higher chance than the market predicts (blasphemy, I know).

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