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SUPER TUESDAY DISCUSSION THREAD (self.badeconomics)

EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced が 投稿

Urnbabyurn says we can have one so lets see those great election night memes of the dankest quality

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ベストトップ論争中古い順Q&A

[–]roboczarWe're here, we're hetero, get used to it! 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

My hometown is officially feelin' the Bern. I can never return. I shall remain in my landlocked exile.

[–]jsmooth7 2ポイント3ポイント  (10子コメント)

Maybe Cruz isn't that bad? At least he's better than Trump right?

* Listen's to his speech *

Oh yeah that's right, he's insane too. :(

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 2ポイント3ポイント  (9子コメント)

Though Cruz is lightyears ahead of Trump or Sanders in my opinion.

Though after Today it's looking more and more like I may have to do something that as a republican I've told myself I would never do... Support Hillary.

[–]jsmooth7 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

Just from his speech alone, we know Cruz supports:

  • a flat tax
  • the IRS is gone
  • tear up the Iran nuclear deal
  • repeal Obamacare
  • investigate Planned Parenthood for something

So yeah you're pretty much right. (God damn the bar is set low this election.)

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

  • I support a flat tax
  • I don't have enough information to make an informed opinion on Iran deal.
  • Obamacare was neither good nor bad.
  • I agree with you on IRS being necessary and Planned Parenthood being good.
  • you also missed him being stupid on gold standard and audit the fed.

I'm not saying Cruz is good, just we have so many bad candidates this election that he isn't the worst. (I will however say that in my opinion Bush, Rubio, Christie and Kasich were all good candidates. So it hasn't all been bad this cycle)

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Why? I'd rather spend a bunch of money on an non-optimal education policy then go back to the gold standard and drastically cut the social safety net.

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

There's also the whole climate change denial thing. That alone outweighs all of bernies minor offenses.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Well I'm really big on the importance of entitlement reform and Cruz is pro-free trade while Sanders isn't.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Entitlement form in the hands of Cruz would be horrible. They would be cut far beyond the levels needed to balance them. Trade to me is second order to me if we're talking Bernie versus Cruz/Trump.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Though (and yes this can be said about both candidates) in theory he'd have to moderate his views on entitlements to get that through congress.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

I wouldn't say Cruz is necessarily better than Bernie.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

I would, but I'm a conservative and you're a liberal so there's a good chance that our politics is what's influencing or opinions.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Is Sanders guaranteed victory in Minn rn? Because predictit is shitting its pants.

[–]HandjobSally[🍰] 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

The NY Times map was behind.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm aware. They also haven't even started on the metro area where Clinton was projected to do well.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

If Rubio gets less then 20% of the vote in all three of Tennessee, Alabama and Texas I think I'm going to cry.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

So I want Hillary to blow out Sanders everywhere. But I just bet $15 that Sanders would win Minnesota.

I think I value money more than Sanders supporter tears. Those will come later on either way.

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 1ポイント2ポイント  (8子コメント)

Let's pour one out for Minnesota for being so fucking reasonable.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (7子コメント)

Bad news. The NYT's election returns model is projecting a Trump/Sanders win.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Not anymore, it now has Rubio by 11%.

I'm confused by NYT calling Sanders for the Dems though, because Hillary led by 34% in the one poll done in Minnesota this year and with 1% of the vote counted Hillary is winning.

So actually I'm with u/darkestbeforethedon here, Minnesota appears sane. (at least for now)

edit: and I spoke too soon, 15% in and Sanders has a 20% lead in the votes counted.

[–]Sogsworth 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

NYT hasn't called it in its coverage of the results; its election model is projecting a Sanders win, probably based on demographics.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

So it seems. Still 56% voting for Carson+Trump+Cruz.

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

I live in a bubble. I'd appreciate it if you let me stay in it for just one more night.

I wouldn't get mad about Sanders winning there. He is losing the overall race anyway. I wouldn't mind the Dems going after the white working class a little more (less for the GOP to fire up). Sanders is doing well on the Iron Range and I for one think that is a good thing.

If Minny hands Trump a 3rd place finish, they will have done more than enough.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

I want Sanders to lose in MN just because it brings this primary one more step closer to ending.

For the GOP the sad thing is even a Rubio win in MN won't really make his night any better. A decently strong Cruz and Trump showing means that the chances of a Trump win go up after tonight.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Real talk: Reddit is not the electorate. And Trump is light years worse, both in terms of his actual positions and the likelihood of him becoming president, than Bernie.

I'd rather see Bernie win another state if it means that Trump becomes a little farther from the White House.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

A Trump presidency scares me. The chance he gets us into a war is far too high for comfort.

[–]Post_Capitalist_2I am the hypothetical can opener ama 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Watching Trump yell answers at the crowd while Chris Christie stands behind him looking like some fat Italian mafia guy is one of the funniest things I have ever seen. Its like a sketch on SNL thats actually funny. Just for the comedic possibilities I have to support Trump now. I can't believe I actually saw that.

TrumpChristie2016

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (5子コメント)

Yeglasis goes all in on the GOP is doomed thesis.

The problem Republicans have is that is that these flaws are not flaws that a Republican Party politician can effectively articulate to an audience of Republican Party primary voters.

  • Republican Party primary voters think that white people being shamed for racism is a bigger problem than white people doing racist stuff.

  • Republican Party elites are ideologically committed to the defense of inherited wealth and opposed to the regulation of business in the public interest.

  • Republican Party elites essentially share Trump's least-popular and most-obviously-ridiculous policy idea — an enormous tax cut for the right — so they can't criticize it.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't see how they are doomed while they control most state legislatures and governorships.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 2ポイント3ポイント  (3子コメント)

Yeah this is a huge problem I've had with the anti-Trump reaction to Trump.

Having a liberal go on CNN or MSNBC and tell you why Trump is a bad candidate is the most surefire way of getting a republican to want to vote for Trump.

You can't convince Republicans to oppose Trump by doing that, so please stop it.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Except a lot the Trump hate is coming from the more moderate wing of the GOP. It's not just a liberal phenomena.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

but that crowd never got or sought out national media attention.

Before this week none of the moderate republican super pacs and not many major republicans were campaigning against Trump. They were more just sitting by and assuming he would implode.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

This is false. Fox news is very anti Trump, there was a recent #neverTrump hashtag, the fact that the race has been framed as the quest to be the anti-Trump. The fact that there hasn't been a lot of effort directed against Trump should be understood as a tactical error. Not implicit support among the GOP establishment.

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Minnesota. The last semi-sane state in the union?

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

At least the sanest state tonight, with both Clinton and Rubio winning

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thank God it won't be a complete loss for Rubes

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Assuming Sanders wins 3 states, can Hillary safely pivot towards the general election?

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, her margin of victory has been far greater than Sanders. She is overall in a comfortable position to take the nomination.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/

[–]Vagabond21They call me "Bond" because the return on my comments is fixed. 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Fuck PredictIt.

[–]badeconThrowaway 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Why?

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Cuz many of us are losing our monies. I'm down 60% now.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 2ポイント3ポイント  (5子コメント)

Wasn't Minnesota suppose to close at 9 pm EST? That's what every site says and yet 48 minutes later and polls are still open.

[–]kmathew92 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I was just on PredictIt and his shares all of a sudden shot up from 30 cents to 85 cents for Minnesota

[–]badeconThrowaway 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

They caucus by hand. It takes forever. Huge turnout there too.

http://www.startribune.com/

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Thank you, why no entrance polls yet though?

I'm just getting impatient because my boy Rubio's has to win Minnesota if he wants to get nominated.

[–]badeconThrowaway 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Neither Norwegians nor Somalis believe in exit polls.

[–]Kai_Daigoji 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

We've got such a weird demographic breakdown.

[–]badeconThrowaway 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Cruz is going to win Minnesota.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oh God No! Please Not! Minnesota is Rubio's only chance to get a win tonight.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 21ポイント22ポイント  (8子コメント)

You know things are bad in the GOP when fucking Marco Rubio is described as a moderate.

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

He is a decent candidate for moderates but he isn't a moderate

[–]MisterScrewtapeSucking Federal Reserve cock since 1993 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

>MFW

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

2016 GOP

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

Americas overton window is completely fucked.

[–]jorioWhen does baseball season start? 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

You mean fucking awesome? Your revolution is over Lebowski.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's killing me to describe him as such.

[–]KnightModern 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

no shit

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

No

Fucking

Kidding

[–]DarkestBeforeTheDon 9ポイント10ポイント  (1子コメント)

Trump+Cruz+Carson regularly clearing 60% is fucking scary. The Extra Crazy Wing of the GOP is going to have to destroy itself for a "moderate" to get through.

[–]WorldOfthisLordDoesn't actually know economics, but hangs out here anyway 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Trump and Cruz occupy different wings, despite superficial similarities. They're both vehement opponents of the GOP establishment, and Cruz spent several months with his head wedged up Trump's ass, but in many cases their policies are different. Cruz is all about the current GOP philosophy taken to its absolute limit (free market, religious convictions, etc.), whereas Trump is operating with his own philosophy and is turning the GOP upside down while doing so. He supports keeping entitlement programs intact, hates free trade, is clearly not religious at all despite his overtures, praises Planned Parenthood, and of course is a fanatic on immigration.

Now, his extremism on immigration does buy him a lot of favor with the far right (as the Sessions endorsement shows), but he actually polls much better with moderates and in traditionally blue states, because he supports a number of moderate policies. That's why Christie has endorsed him and why a lot more of Jeb! and Kasich's supporters would go to him and a lot more of Cruz and Rubio's supporters would go to each other than simplistic "lanes" narratives would suggest.

Bottom line: The Trump phenomenon is extremely complex, and attempting to blame it just on GOP policy during the Obama years is the height of oversimplification.

[–]bartink 9ポイント10ポイント  (0子コメント)

Go home GOP. You're drunk.

[–]howstrangeinnocence 4ポイント5ポイント  (2子コメント)

Cruz won Oklahoma

This state didn't disappoint me for once

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sanders won Oklahoma.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

But so did Bernie. :/

[–]Sogsworth 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

These live graphs from the NYT are fascinating: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-democrat-delegate-estimates.html

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

NYT takes the reward for most useful election night coverage this primary. Followed closely by 538.

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can't stop staring at the caterpillars.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

That's so useful, I've been trying to do the math in my head all night.

[–]magnax1 3ポイント4ポイント  (15子コメント)

So if the republican convention is brokered, what are the chances of someone like Romney being the nominee last minute?

[–]smoking_JayCutler6 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I think Rubio would end being chosen as the nominee if there's a brokered convention

[–]magnax1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I agree, just thought maybe the republicans wouls try to distance themselves from the whole spectacle

[–]lorenzorye 2ポイント3ポイント  (12子コメント)

Hopefully bad.

Hillary 2016.

[–]magnax1 3ポイント4ポイント  (4子コメント)

Tbh, I think Rubio would do much better against Clinton than Romney. Romney was not well liked, especially before the first debate.

[–]lorenzorye 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

Idk, he'd be able to leverage resources to match Clinton's and he's much more likely to appeal to moderates than Shut-Down-The-Mosques-Rubio.

[–]magnax1 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

As far as Im aware Rubio said hed shut down mosques which inspire extremism, which I think can already be done anyways. I mean, you can't foment insurrection legally.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's basically McCarthyism for Muslim people tho.

[–]magnax1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well, if he started accusing people of being muslim spies blacklisting muslims and holding trials....then yeah.... thats not what he suggested though.

[–]badeconThrowaway 3ポイント4ポイント  (6子コメント)

How many of us pretend to be Hillary supporters because no one else is publicly accepted here? I am sure u/lorenzorye isn't the only one.

[–]Murray_BannermanListen all a ya'll it's an Arbitrage 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I started posting at BE when Sanders released his economic plans, which shifted me. Very convenient timing.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

See my flair. And /u/besttrousers is big on the Rubio bandwagon.

[–]Jericho_Hill#StickyLivesMatter #SupportTheMods 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

i voted for kasich today

[–]lorenzorye 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

I do not pretend to be a Hillary supporter. I am Hillary Clinton.

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Where's my shillin check. I'm tired of getting paid with dank memes.

[–]lorenzorye 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oklahoma went to Sanders no shilling checks for anyone.

[–]TheDesertFox929A conservative in the wild 9ポイント10ポイント  (3子コメント)

Welp, not looking good for Rubio. I suppose I might as well get my "Hillary for Prez because she's not nearly as bad as Trump" t-shirt.

[–]Trepur349Efficient Market Hypothesis <3 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

As I mentioned before, after tonight Trump will be ahead of Rubio by 200 delegates, but if Rubio can get Florida (assuming he can win on home turf) and Ohio (assuming Kasich drops out and endorses him), he'll be only 50 delegates behind Trump on March 15th, and will have momentum.

I'm still holding out on the belief that Trump is inevitable.

[–]say_wot_againSend complaints to hrod17@clintonemail.com 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

He could win Arkansas and Minnesota though.

[–]TheDesertFox929A conservative in the wild 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yea, I hope he can pull them out and meet delegate thresholds in other states like Texas. Maybe just maybe Trump can be stopped by Cruz or Rubio. If not though, I hope to be one of many Republicans who say that we're not disgracing our party by voting for a demagogue in chief.

[–]Webby911What is RIII? 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE SICK AND TIRED OF HEARING ABOUT THESE GODDAMN STICKIES

[–]mobysniperProponent of Geckonomics 10ポイント11ポイント  (2子コメント)

#Rigged.

[–]thesublieutenantWill shill for $100. 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

CNN had a countdown timer going for the Arkansas polls. Literally hit 00:00 and Wolf goes "we have a prediction" and announced Clinton won Arkansas.

[–]beguiledfoil 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

You can't explain that.

[–]p0mthe choice in being a central banker is endogenous 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Less than 500 votes between Clinton and Sanders in MA? Damn knew I shouldn't have swerved around those campaigners on my way to work today. I kid I don't even drive.

[–]p0mthe choice in being a central banker is endogenous 9ポイント10ポイント  (1子コメント)

Time for Clinton '92 '96 '08 '16 baby!

[–]lorenzorye 12ポイント13ポイント  (2子コメント)

FeelTheClint

[–]Kai_Daigoji 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

Apply if Berning sensation lasts more than 6 weeks.

[–]KnightModern 14ポイント15ポイント  (0子コメント)

#NetflixAndChillary

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 2ポイント3ポイント  (3子コメント)

Are the states after Super Tuesday more or less favorable towards Trump than the ST states?

[–]he3-1 8ポイント9ポイント  (1子コメント)

More mixed then the states before.

Assuming he maintains his 30-40% wins then it will likely be a brokered convention, the two routes to the nomination are either winning an outright majority of delegates or doing so in 8 states. He likely needs to win in all but one of South Dakota, New Jersey, Montana, Nebraska, Delaware, Arizona, Ohio or Florida.

Even if he does manage to accomplish one of the two routes the RNC could simply ignore the results, the national voting/caucusing for nominees only emerged 40 years ago and parties are not bound by the results.

[–]HumanKapital_ 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I personally believe that will result in a mutiny with Trump running as a third party, which could result in other Trumpers running in the Senate and House

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Red.

Shirts.

[–]howstrangeinnocence 18ポイント19ポイント  (0子コメント)

All these redditors supporting Sanders and alleging voter fraud makes sense when you realize they are the same people that tried to track down the Boston bombers.

[–]zzzzz94Minister of Bourgeoisie Enlightenment and Propaganda 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

here is the live results/interactive map

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

They don't even have colors for the Republicans who aren't Trump.

Edit: half an hour later, the other Republicans showed up on the map.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 7ポイント8ポイント  (3子コメント)

/u/urnbabyurn /u/wumbotarian should we sort this by new?

[–]wumbotarianArbitrageur in the rare pepe market 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes. Idk how to do it.

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Done

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

<3

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 14ポイント15ポイント  (2子コメント)

Clinton has a political machine that has been carefully honed since 1991 to ruthlessly win elections.

Bernie has thousands of door-to-door volunteers.

Bernie: man of the people. Hillary: shill for Big Automation.

#feeltehbern

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 10ポイント11ポイント  (1子コメント)

I know the rules are changing constantly under the tyranny of the mods but I think you're supposed to shitpost in the silver thread.

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm politically shitposting in the SUPAH TUESDAY thread

[–]pm_me_utils 6ポイント7ポイント  (7子コメント)

The Republicans: party of racists, or party for racists?

[–]smoking_JayCutler6 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

LIEbruls are the real racists

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 6ポイント7ポイント  (5子コメント)

Most kangaroos have tails but not all animals with tails are kangaroos.

[–]pm_me_utils 5ポイント6ポイント  (4子コメント)

GOP: Not racist, but #1 with racists

[–]Commodore_ObviousShilling is my business, and business is good. 9ポイント10ポイント  (3子コメント)

I dunno, did you see Bernie supporters when black people voted for Hillary?

[–]Sogsworth 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Bernie bros on Reddit may be racist but I doubt they are representative of Bernie supporters more generally. Look at this poll, for example.

[–]Commodore_ObviousShilling is my business, and business is good. 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

I wouldn't say racists are representative of all Bernie bros, just like racists aren't representative of all republicans. But are there actually fewer racists among Bernie bros or is it just that their ideological beliefs happen to align with the answers perceived as not racially resentful in that poll? The answers would have been the same if "the poor" replaced blacks and "the rich" replaced whites in those questions.

[–]Sogsworth 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm sure that has something to do with it; it's difficult to measure racism, of course.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

Rubio is disgustingly low in VA for YES right now on Predictit. Snatch some of those up. Really wishing I had put some on Shillary in CO when she was low. I should have had more faith in those pot smoking skiers.

[–]---FARTS---DO YOU SMELL IT? 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

My portfolio is down 40% :-(

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college 3ポイント4ポイント  (12子コメント)

If Sanders ends up losing everywhere but Vermont, there will be no reason to think he still has a shot.

So go Oklahoma and Minnesota, do the right thing and put an end to this.

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 1ポイント2ポイント  (11子コメント)

I see him as doing what Huckabee did by staying in the race after losing the math. It's to keep the message going.

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college -1ポイント0ポイント  (8子コメント)

What makes me a bit irritated and feeling that Bernie is a scoundrel is that he became a Democrat months ago and will keep trying to pull Hillary to the left (hurting her in the general election) and letting his campaign and brigade criticize her (hurting her in the general election). He's hurting the Democratic party for ideological purposes.

[–]he3-1 7ポイント8ポイント  (5子コメント)

Sanders works for Trump.

[–]ampersampmarginal futility 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

but I thought Trump worked for Hillary?

[–]he3-1 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

Its the circle of life. Sanders works for Trump who works for Hillary who works for the Rothschild's.

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Sure. If the US ends up with President Trump, the single biggest culprit would be Bernie Sanders.

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I don't think it's that clear that it hurts her. Many people would argue that a lively but positive primary battle can strengthen the candidate by emphasizing her support while getting more attention.

[–]lord_of_the_rallyPraxxing my way through college 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can see your point, it's not good if a candidate flies to the nomination. However I still believe that unnecessary bashing and pulling her away from the median elector after the party have already converged toward her is negative to her campaign and to the entire party.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

And, more importantly, push Hillary to the left. I suspect that was the main reason of his campaign to begin with, I cannot imagine he actually ever thought he could win this.

[–]lorenzorye 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

But redditors sure did.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 9ポイント10ポイント  (2子コメント)

So exit polls look like we're not seeing a Trump sweep - Kasich might win VT, Rubio might win VA, Cruz might win TX.

[–]Kai_Daigoji 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

The republican delegate math is genuinely terrifying though. With as many winner-take-all states as they have, Trump could become the nominee without ever breaking 50%.

[–]bdubs91You Can't Scrub The Dub 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

Plz America

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ok, now Rove is using his clipboard so this should get fun.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 10ポイント11ポイント  (2子コメント)

Minorities don't have internet

[–]Vagabond21They call me "Bond" because the return on my comments is fixed. 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I must be in the minority of minorities who have it.

[–]brauer1REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS 99% 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

same

[–]wshanahana slightly less shitty libertarian 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

saw this in another thread.

Bernie Sanders right now

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

Remember how Bill Bradley had such a lasting career after 2000? Me neither.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Right, but even by challenging the sitting Vice President and almost winning, he showed that the American People had a Hunger for CHANGE!!!!

/s

[–]Kai_Daigoji 7ポイント8ポイント  (2子コメント)

I'm already half thinking Bernie's going to get Vermont, and that's it.

EDIT: And I'm wrong. Way to go, Bernie, you're OK in our book.

[–]HumanKapital_ 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I thi k he will stay in to raise "awareness", you will just see him and Hillary attacking the Republicans

[–]elev57 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Massachusetts should be interesting. All the others should be Clinton.

[–]Vagabond21They call me "Bond" because the return on my comments is fixed. 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

all in

[–]Webby911What is RIII? 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

squad

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can't decide whether to buy Trump shares to hedge against my anger from hm potentially winning, or to buy Clinton who I think will win with higher chance than the market predicts (blasphemy, I know).

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 5ポイント6ポイント  (19子コメント)

Being a right winger was a lot more fun when the biggest threat to the right was losing to Hillary, but still maintaining control of most local/state govs and congress.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced[S] 6ポイント7ポイント  (18子コメント)

This sub actually brought me more center than I used to be and I'm terrified of 3 of the 5 left and the other 2 are still frightening

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 2ポイント3ポイント  (17子コメント)

Same. Who's your candidate for GOP? I'm rooting for Cruz at this point as the lesser of the three evils that actually has a shot of winning the nomination.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 10ポイント11ポイント  (1子コメント)

Mr Gold Standard himself? Interesting.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

In a field of candidates who are comically badecon, support of gold standard becomes something I can look past. Which really just says something about how awful this field is.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (14子コメント)

I'm curious. Why Cruz instead of Rubio?

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real -1ポイント0ポイント  (13子コメント)

Civil liberties and foreign policy. Rubio wants to restore the NSA and expand it, criminalize gay marriage, shut down mosques, restaurants, and other areas extremists might gather (and monitor them if they aren't shut down). Rubio's foreign policy, at least from what I've gathered from the debates, seems to be "bomb everything that moves and then send in a shitload of troops."

Rubio is better on econ but the civil liberties stances alone are unforgivable to me, and I'm not looking for NeoConservatism on steroids when it comes to foreign policy.

Cruz certainly has many flaws, but he's the only one I can vote for without hating myself for doing it (besides Kasich but by the time PA votes he won't be in the race).

[–]Im_not_JB -1ポイント0ポイント  (2子コメント)

Rubio wants to restore the NSA and expand it

Good.

criminalize gay marriage

Too late; Kennedy already snapped his fingers and made that impossible.

shut down mosques, restaurants, and other areas extremists might gather

There is no way he'd get into office, get briefings from people who actually know shit, and still try to pursue this.

Rubio's foreign policy, at least from what I've gathered from the debates, seems to be "bomb everything that moves and then send in a shitload of troops."

See above. As a rule, I don't trust anything that any candidate says on foreign policy unless they've had a position that directly deals with it.

[–]smoking_JayCutler6 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

You actually want the NSA to spy on Americans?

[–]Im_not_JB -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

I want the NSA to perform legitimate foreign intelligence. There was some amount of legitimate complaint about the 215 program, but it was pretty much fixed as good as could be in USAFA. The rest of the anti-NSA train seems to be running on obviously awful interpretations of Snowden-released info concerning legitimate operations, sheer bullshit, and /r/conspiracy. When most people actually engage with the things NSA actually does, they either become reasonably alright with it or they enter hard cognitive dissonance.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 15ポイント16ポイント  (6子コメント)

I'm sorry what. This is outright falsehoods especially when comparing Rubio with Cruz.

Rubio wants to restore the NSA and expand it

So does Cruz, lets look back to the idiotic apple stuff. Rubio was the only one saying we shouldn't 'boycott apple and let them die'.

criminalize gay marriage,

Lmao, yeah, Ted Cruz is a shining example of supporting gay marriage. Oh wait no, he hates it and wants to get right of it. "Criminalizing gay marriage" Apparently Marco Rubio is Uganda. All I've heard him say is let states decide but keep Doma. I find this distasteful but huge misrepresentation.

shut down mosques, restaurants, and other areas extremists might gather (and monitor them if they aren't shut down)

Ted Cruz

Sound sjust like what Rubio said, close down mosques with 'extremists' or any place with extremists. Which the government already does. You aren't allowed to foment violent insurrection or assaults on the government as it is.

Rubio's foreign policy, at least from what I've gathered from the debates, seems to be "bomb everything that moves and then send in a shitload of troops."

Sorry, but this is the biggest load of shit I've seen. The debates to date have consisted of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump trying to one up each other on how to carpet bomb isis and kill their families fastest while Rubio says shit like http://www.wmur.com/politics/granite-state-debates/2016-gop-debate-marco-rubio-on-fight-against-isis/37862572

Please.

[–]magnax1 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, Cruz is so far right of Rubio its not close. He also wants to shut down basically every Government agency worth noting, and Cruz wants to bomb ISIS until "The sand glows in the dark." Whatever that means.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

So does Cruz, lets look back to the idiotic apple stuff. Rubio was the only one saying we shouldn't 'boycott apple and let them die'.

No Cruz doesn't, his position on the NSA is damn near Paul's. He pushed the USA freedom act (I'll agree it was a very weak remedy but it signals his position) for example and in one of the recent debates went after Rubio over surveillance in which Rubio was clearly to the right of him on that issue.

Apparently Marco Rubio is Uganda. All I've heard him say is let states decide but keep Doma. I find this distasteful but huge misrepresentation.

They both suck on this issue and want to overturn the court ruling.

Sound sjust like what Rubio said

Damn that's concerning as hell... He doesn't say he will shut down Mosques at least but it certainly doesn't look good... Is it too much to ask for a viable candidate who actually cares about due process, freedom of speech/assembly, and the right to privacy? I'm not convinced they're talking about just violent speech, why would they mention it if what they're referring to is attempts to incite violence that are already covered by the law?

each other on how to carpet bomb isis and kill their families fastest while Rubio says shit like

I didn't know ISIS was the only area of concern of foreign policy, and don't thrown in Trump in here because I'd obviously prefer Rubio to him.

You haven't sold me on Rubio, but now I'm definitely reconsidering supporting Cruz.

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

I've been waiting for you to show up. Its unfortunate Kasich is diverting some of his votes, even as much as I like him he is only hurting the moderate non-trump crowd

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

Yeah, despite the above I'm still super soft on Rubio. I just think he's better than the goblin who is Ted Cruz. I really wish Kasich would drop out. I like the guy but I think the country will be better for a Hillary/Rubio race regardless of who wins. Or maybe the Republican party just needs to blow up. I wish the US was structured differently so that there could feasibly be more than two parties.

[–]2x4yPhilosopher King 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

did you have any affection for Bush?

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Jeb!? Yes, he was my number 1.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (2子コメント)

I guess I always assumed that Cruz was as if not more socially conservative then Rubio. Which from what you're saying may have not been a good assumption.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real -2ポイント-1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Cruz is also a Constitutional Conservative/Tea Partier, so apart from abortion which he believes falls under the federal government's role of protecting life, I'm fairly positive he's mostly a state's rights guy when it comes to the other social issues.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

On his website he boasts about his success in opposing gay marriage and championing for religious freedom. I'm skeptical that state's rights actually means libertarianism. It seems to be a coded word for a certain set of socially conservative policy.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 7ポイント8ポイント  (11子コメント)

So if things go as badly for Bernie as the polls are suggesting how long do you think he'll stay in the race?

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced[S] 7ポイント8ポイント  (10子コメント)

Defiant till the convention?

[–]lux514 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Yes, he stated during the first debate, iirc, he's determined to stay in it until the convention.

[–]matty_a 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah but it gets harder if the money stops coming in.

[–]he3-1 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

He is trying to play the Paul card, more then 10% of delegates and you have a hope of changing convention rules to unbind all the delegates.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (6子コメント)

I don't think so. I think he'll feel a decent amount of pressure to drop out earlier to unify that's party for the general election.

[–]magnax1 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Who knows, he may even run independent

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

He has raised quite a bit of money to still pump out his message.

[–]weezer3989Fiat currency can't melt gold bars 8ポイント9ポイント  (3子コメント)

I'd buy that argument more if he actually was a democrat or cared about the party itself. I just don't see him being swayed by arguments about what's best for the Democratic party, when he's only been in the party for slightly longer than he's been running.

[–]theskepticalheretic 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

He's always stood with the Dems as an independent. It's not reasonable to say he's only now a democrat.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

He voted with the Democrats before this election. He was a Democrat in all but name. I would think he would at least have an interest in making sure the GOP nomine didn't win. But I could be wrong, I didn't expect him to throw the former CEA chairs under the bus.

[–]Sogsworth 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

He doesn't need to drop out in order to pivot to attacking Trump and emphasizing his agreement with Hillary on core principles.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 36ポイント37ポイント  (71子コメント)

I wrote the following on a friend's facebook wall, when they asked for reasons to support Sanders vs. Clinton. I was the only pro-Clinton comment.

I am very worried about the future of evidence-based policy in a Sanders administration.

Sanders has been promoting a an economic analysis of his policies that has a fiscal multiplier of 8.1, while the economic literature suggests that it is somewhere between 0.8 and 1.5 (http://econweb.ucsd.edu/.../res.../JEL_Fiscal_14June2011.pdf). Using a parameter that is 20 (!) standard deviations away from the empirical estimates is fairly absurd, and economists (including every former Obama Chief Economic Adviser) have written detailed explanations as to why (https://evaluationoffriedman.files.wordpress.com/.../rome..., http://www.nytimes.com/.../uncovering-the-bad-math-or...).

The Sanders campaign's reaction is to imply that the economists are being bribed (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQkdnAfasFA&feature=youtu.be) (he doesn't say by who - the Clintons? Wall Street? Neither are true).

I think one of the most important qualities a President should have is being able to weigh advice from different outside experts - even when they disagree with you. Sanders' manichaean worldview limits his ability to do this.

[–]wumbotarianArbitrageur in the rare pepe market 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

That's some good pasta you cooked up. I may alter that for future consumption - mind if I do?

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

Go for it!

Note that my estimates of 20 SDs is a bit hand-wavy. I assumed Ramey's 0.8-1.5 range covered a SD in either direction.

[–]wumbotarianArbitrageur in the rare pepe market 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thanks man!

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 5ポイント6ポイント  (66子コメント)

Do you think we should put any weight on Clinton's scandals, constant flip flopping, and term as Secretary of State? Because I agree purely on policy (assuming her current policies are actually what she stands for which is a big assumption) she's much better than Sanders (and at this point just about the entire GOP field too), but I personally would rather see a Sanders victory due to those problems with Hillary.

Granted, I'm a registered Republican in a closed primary state so my vote will be to whoever looks like they have the best chance of stopping Trump (please don't be Marco "let me shut down Mosques/restaurants/public places where extremists might be gathering" Rubio).

[–]Webby911What is RIII? 10ポイント11ポイント  (2子コメント)

No.

The president shouldn't be the best "person", it should be the best politician. Clinton is the best politician, I have no doubt in her abilities to carry out her vision, one which I agree with. I have no doubt in her ability to handle a crisis.

Honestly, and y'all gonna hate me for this, I don't really care if she cheats to win either. I'd consider a public service to keep Bernie/Trump out of the White House. And I know gets into the whole "that's condescending" to dismiss the views of the voters, but if we're being the average voter is dumb, and a decent amount of "smart" voters have bought into fallacies/don't understand politics.

If I can't have my formal Technocracy, Hillary is the best choice.

Edit: Y'all don't hate me for that....you some scandalous heathens

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Oh don't get me wrong I'm a complete elitist myself, if there was a way to rig elections for candidates without risking undermining our freedom and turning into an authoritarian shithole, I'd be all for it. I share your views on the average voter.

[–]Sogsworth 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

The was the thinking behind the superdelegate system.

[–]Jericho_Hill#StickyLivesMatter #SupportTheMods 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

I voted for Kasich today.

[–]theskepticalheretic 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Do you think we should put any weight on Clinton's scandals, constant flip flopping, and term as Secretary of State?

As for scandals, it depends on which one, many are made up of pure politics and lack substance. Flip-flopping I think shouldn't necessarily be seen as a bad thing. Changing your mind isn't a bad thing, especially when it is in light of new evidence. To oscillate between a yes and no position depending on who you're talking to is a bad play though. With regards to her term as SecState, what would you say are the problems?

EDIT: Nevermind, I see you went into detail below.

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 1ポイント2ポイント  (6子コメント)

I legit can't think of any Clinton scandal that would make me want to vote for anyone over her. Like if it came out that she straight up killed a dude 10 years ago, I would still vote for her. The upside from her superior policies far exceeds the downside from any imaginable scandal she might have. Unless like I dunno she literally sold warhead designs to Putin or something.

Unless it's just a question about electability in the general, in which case the scandal would have to be one hell of a scandal to make her less electable than a self declared secular socialist.

Her flip flops on closer inspection aren't as flip floppy as people think. And she consistently pushes for positions I support, but only up to the point where it runs against overwhelming political consensus (like say on LGBT rights). Which is reasonable, I can respect her realism. Biting off more than you can chew is counterproductive.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Like if it came out that she straight up killed a dude 10 years ago, I would still vote for her

I mean I don't even know what to say here, it's just horrifying that you would even say that voting for someone who was involved in a violent conspiracy (and just so people don't misinterpret me I don't buy that she actually had someone killed, we're both going off the hypothetical here) is OK because of "good policy."

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Being vaguely 'horrified' is not that damaging to my, or others', well being, except for the one dude who died. Maintaining world peace, protecting the environment, stabilizing the economy, etc. has far more impact on far more people. Presidents already make life and death decisions constantly, and some of those deaths are almost certainly avoidable. I'm not going to stop looking at the bigger picture. Do I have reason to believe they intend to kill many more people if elected? No? Then whatever.

Now this is all a little hyperbolic to prove a point, because if this was a real scenario, the damage to the rule of law would be considerable and VERY serious, and in reality probably prevent me from voting for them. The point here is, nothing that Hillary has done, as far as I can tell, even remotely rises to the level where it would be enough to outweigh her good policies.

[–]Webby911What is RIII? 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Like if it came out that she straight up killed a dude 10 years ago, I would still vote for her.

True.

Her ambition happens to line up with what's best for the country so I'm kinda okay with any shit she needs to pull to get into power.

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