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AnalysisAmerica’s Brexit blahs (politico.eu)

EarlReginald が 投稿

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[–]EarlReginald[S] 2ポイント3ポイント  (13子コメント)

Submission Statement: It is immensely interesting how little the American political class are taking note of their greatest security ally jeopardizing the whole European project with their ad-hoc "In" or "Out" referendum. especially since US-EU cooperation is the vital economic plank the Western bloc is based on.

Interestingly enough as well, the Brexit debate is a polarizing force even in American policy circles, with the Democrat's preferring Britain stay in the supranational EU and the Republicans (who already have a soft spot for the UK) always choosing sovereignty and thus supporting a Brexit (by and large).

[–]irreverentewok [スコア非表示]  (8子コメント)

The EU or European "project" has fundamental flaws and conflicts in continental Europe, England leaving just takes most of the teeth out of an organization that would never have utilized them. It's mostly irrelevant anyway, the EU failed to produce the necessary unity to be decisive before major conflicts about Greece and refugees ruined the relationship between E. and W. Europe(even E. and W. Germany).

[–]EarlReginald[S] [スコア非表示]  (7子コメント)

So do you think the British are going to leave? Even further, how do you think the Obama administration would react? Do you think that the Republicans (if they won) would reverse course?

[–]irreverentewok [スコア非表示]  (6子コメント)

I don't know what the British are going to do, but the EU has little value outside of economic integration. Something you can have without trying to make other countries do and pay for things they don't want. If England didn't have to put money and resources into Germany's pet projects they would have more left over for cooperating with the U.S., something that's going to be pretty important in the years ahead.

I think the value and strength of the EU is too often thought of in terms of potential instead of real terms. They just can't be unified enough to commit to important actions, when they try, they start to splinter.

[–]Lion-of-Saint-Mark [スコア非表示]  (5子コメント)

I think the value and strength of the EU is too often thought of in terms of potential instead of real terms. They just can't be unified enough to commit to important actions, when they try, they start to splinter

I agree on the former, not on the latter. EU sounds more like an over glorified free trade area atm. But to say that they'll splinter hen they try to get close is incorrect. The EU had a long history since the founding of ECSC.

I'm usually pessimistic, but the EU Army is still in the table. It becomes more likely if UK leaves, Russian-EU tensions continues,and the Med continues to be a volatile region

[–]irreverentewok [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

The only significant non-economic issue they've faced is the migrant crisis, something that immediately brought threats to leave and proved there's no collective will or potential for one. W. Europe will always have a disproportionately large say that conflicts with the far more numerous, yet smaller countries less willing to take risks.

NATO has the same issues, but fortunately for them the U.S. is committed enough to take on almost all the cost and risk involved. To the point it can almost act unilaterally as long it only asks for token support. Germany won't do that for the EU and only might be capable of it.

[–]Lion-of-Saint-Mark [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

And where are these states leaving? Only the UK is considering, and they have been considering to leave way before the refugee crisis. In fact, these reformist even came out one time - Sweden, Netherlands, and the UK. Germany came in and had a chat with them, then suddenly Cameron is alone.

[–]irreverentewok [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

No one is as far along as England and I'm not saying it'll break up anytime. Just that when the EU tries to get people to do something it increases support for Eurosceptic groups, particularly in E. Europe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism#Euroscepticism_in_the_EU_member_states

[–]trystanrice [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Cameron is alone in campaigning to remain in the EU?

[–]i_already_forgot [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

Europe hasn't been at the forefront of American strategic thinking for a while now. It's either about the Pacific or passing distractions from the middle east.

A bit of a mistake, but makes sense. The Europeans should be able to handle their own affairs...

[–]EarlReginald[S] [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

Europe hasn't been at the forefront of American strategic thinking for a while now

Maybe 5 years ago, but with Russia now engaging in hybrid war throughout the region, I'm not too sure your analysis is applicable anymore. The US wants to see an allied and unified Europe, so it can be a reliable partner on the world stage. I'd posit that Europe is again in the "top 3" US strategic concerns now (ISIS, and China being the others).

[–]i_already_forgot [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

There was a resurgence of interest, but it's started to peter out again - at least in terms of media coverage. Nevertheless, it always has been a top 3 priority...but it's a distant 3. I don't doubt that American planners are working behind-the-scenes, but most public discourse has "moved on", so to speak.

[–]EarlReginald[S] [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

but most public discourse has "moved on", so to speak

Good point. The news cycle is certainly "over" it, except for the customary, once a financial quarter PR stunt by Obama to show we're beefing up defenses.