全 49 件のコメント

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 21ポイント22ポイント  (1子コメント)

BRONZE THREAD

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, or a commodity basket.

To be honest, these ST results are turning out to be less exciting than I had anticipated. My only hope at this point is to see Rove on Fox News having a meltdown over Trump winning and start denying the results because some suburb hasn't reported yet.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 11ポイント12ポイント  (21子コメント)

I wrote the following on a friend's facebook wall, when they asked for reasons to support Sanders vs. Clinton. I was the only pro-Clinton comment.

I am very worried about the future of evidence-based policy in a Sanders administration.

Sanders has been promoting a an economic analysis of his policies that has a fiscal multiplier of 8.1, while the economic literature suggests that it is somewhere between 0.8 and 1.5 (http://econweb.ucsd.edu/.../res.../JEL_Fiscal_14June2011.pdf). Using a parameter that is 20 (!) standard deviations away from the empirical estimates is fairly absurd, and economists (including every former Obama Chief Economic Adviser) have written detailed explanations as to why (https://evaluationoffriedman.files.wordpress.com/.../rome..., http://www.nytimes.com/.../uncovering-the-bad-math-or...).

The Sanders campaign's reaction is to imply that the economists are being bribed (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQkdnAfasFA&feature=youtu.be) (he doesn't say by who - the Clintons? Wall Street? Neither are true).

I think one of the most important qualities a President should have is being able to weigh advice from different outside experts - even when they disagree with you. Sanders' manichaean worldview limits his ability to do this.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced[S] 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm sure the responses were either crickets or did you earn your shill card points for the day?

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 1ポイント2ポイント  (19子コメント)

Do you think we should put any weight on Clinton's scandals, constant flip flopping, and term as Secretary of State? Because I agree purely on policy (assuming her current policies are actually what she stands for which is a big assumption) she's much better than Sanders (and at this point just about the entire GOP field too), but I personally would rather see a Sanders victory due to those problems with Hillary.

Granted, I'm a registered Republican in a closed primary state so my vote will be to whoever looks like they have the best chance of stopping Trump (please don't be Marco "let me shut down Mosques/restaurants/public places where extremists might be gathering" Rubio).

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 6ポイント7ポイント  (17子コメント)

scandals

Honestly, the anodyne nature of the emails we've seen so far are probably the most encouraging thing. If I had to release every email I've sent in the last 4 years, you'd find much worse!

constant flip flopping

I have no idea what flip flops she did. Clinton seems to be fairly ideologically stable to me.

term as Secretary of State

Well, of course.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Honestly, the anodyne nature of the emails we've seen so far are probably the most encouraging thing. If I had to release every email I've sent in the last 4 years, you'd find much worse!

Well given how she deleted a bunch of the emails, I can't help but think she might have had something to hide, and if she did she would not have been stupid enough to release them when she was deleting her "personal" Emails. There have been a lot of others though, you know like foreign leaders from oppressive nations giving the Clinton Foundation lots of money while she was Secretary of State? That seems like a conflict of interest to me. Then there's the whole going after all the women who accused Bill of assaulting them, lying about some scenario where she ended up in Bosnia under sniper fire, having to be brave/surviving this dangerous encounter that never happened. And I really hate to bring it up because the Reps have been absolute idiots with the way they've gone about this (nobody gives a fuck about the whole video nonsense, GOP!!), but the fact that she refused for months to send the Benghazi consulate the plane they were requesting and other aid that they wanted because they knew the region was really damn insecure (I'll have to find my previous writings on this but from memory the consulate had received multiple bomb threats, had been attacked once, and the Red Cross had already left the area due to violence) and they wanted to be able to escape is quite a big problem in my mind.

I have no idea what flip flops she did. Clinton seems to be fairly ideologically stable to me.

Iraq (and no this wasn't a "I was fooled but then realized it was a mistake after we didn't find WMDs type flop. She was still for it in her 2008 campaign). Gay marriage, she came out in favor of the year it hit 50% in the poll. She once said "the war on drugs can't be stopped because there's too much money involved" now she's not so much in favor of the war on drugs. That alone shows how poor her judgment can be, in my opinion, because obviously the reason there's so much money involved is the fact that they are illegal so there's a huge risk premium which pushes up the prices. She helped negotiate the TPP and has now said it isn't up to her standards (and she's been similarly confusing about everything trade related flopping on NAFTA, opposing CAFTA). She was tough on crime, now not so much. She was against ground troops in Syria, then flopped on them, and now supports a no fly-zone on top of that. She was "adamantly against illegal immigrants," now she's pro-amnesty.

I understand changing one or two positions over time as either new evidence shows up (which clearly doesn't dictate her view changes - see her trade flops) or to garner votes from another candidate but when you flop on so many different positions, seemingly based on whatever is politically expedient at the time, that says to me your main concern is getting elected, not doing what is right or sticking to any sort of principles.

I can understand someone who recognizes these issues and still considers her the better candidate, just through prioritizing things differently than I do. What I don't understand is why people trust her or act like she's such an incredible candidate who really is going to be a phenomenal president. Perhaps more importantly, I'm worried about the kind of message this sends. We all want a woman to be president someday, in part because we want to signal to young women that they too can get into politics and achieve this (or anything else they wish to). Yet I worry what kind of signals it would send to those young women if the first woman elected is someone who a) only wins by being so connected and running against Donald Trump of all people, and b) is known for being corrupt, untrustworthy, and someone who has fought against women etc). Also think of the ammunition that might give sexists for opposing female presidents in the future. These are my concerns, although I'd be happy to be proven incorrect.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, none of this is especially convincing to me.

Remember, the human brain is a pattern-matching machine with a crazy tendency to find false positives. Yes, Hillary was pro-Iraq War and anti-gay marriage in 2002, but not 2016. The same is true of the vast majority of people. Yes, she hasn't released every e-mail she has ever written. So what?

If you want to find a pattern where's she's untrustworthy, you can. That doesn't mean it's there. She's been in the public eye for 30 years, so if you want to find whatever pattern you want to, you can.

[–]moistest_grampa 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Iraq (and no this wasn't a "I was fooled but then realized it was a mistake after we didn't find WMDs type flop. She was still for it in her 2008 campaign).

On April 26, 2007, she appeared with seven other Democratic candidates at the first debate of the campaign, held at South Carolina State University in Orangeburg, South Carolina and broadcast on MSNBC. Of her initial Senate vote to approve the U.S. role in the Iraq War, she stated, "If I knew then what I know now, I would not have voted that way." She further stated, "If this president does not get us out of Iraq, when I’m president I will."

[–]jb4427 -4ポイント-3ポイント  (13子コメント)

TIL being a former cabinet member...and a damn good one at that...disqualifies you from being president

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 4ポイント5ポイント  (12子コメント)

I assume /u/vShockAndAwev disagrees with "a damn good one at that". If so, that seems perfectly valid.

[–]jb4427 -3ポイント-2ポイント  (11子コメント)

I'm not sure how he could. She played a big part in repairing relations that the Bush administration destroyed.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

I don't know enough about FP to really judge her effectiveness here.

Do you think she did substantially better than the counterfactual (for example, a John Kerry or Bill Richardson Secretary of State?).

[–]jb4427 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Kerry has also been very good in my opinion. I think he would've made a great president as well.

[–]throwaway44017 -1ポイント0ポイント  (4子コメント)

She also played a large role in the Libyan War which turned out pretty damn poorly.

[–]jb4427 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

I don't think Libyans think so, considering their abusive dictator is dead.

[–]throwaway44017 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I remember when Republicans said the same thing about Saddam in Iraq.

[–]jb4427 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

We didn't put troops on the ground in Libya for a decade. I'm a democrat and Saddam being gone was one reason to (initially) support the Iraq War.

[–]Sogsworth 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

You don't know what the counterfactual in Libya would have been. One can easily imagine it devolving into a protracted civil war absent Western intervention, similar to what we've seen in Syria.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real -2ポイント-1ポイント  (3子コメント)

The reset button with Russia, pushing to arm so-called moderate Syrian rebels who turned out to be ISIS, trying to overthrow Assad, a secular dictator who is fighting ISIS and sort of protecting religious liberty (more so than the alternatives, etc), the illegal invasion of Libya that destabilized the region.. Where has she had success?

Bush administration was awful as well, no disagreement there. She seems like a continuation of it though. A confused foreign policy that can't decide what it's goals are or what its trying to accomplish, and commits itself into too many different skirmishes and doesn't even give enough force to win them.

[–]jb4427 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

reset button with Russia

Stopped reading there. If you don't think Putin caused all of that, you don't know your facts.

[–]Kakya 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Moderate Syrian Rebels were not the ones who turned out to be ISIS, the argument can be made that ISIS ended up stealing a ton of weapons from the rebels, but ISIS stole a whole lot more from the Iraqi Army during the initial blitz of Mosul all the way down to Ramadi. ISIS isn't the only group Assad is fighting and his rule has been iron fisted and cruel, to the say the least, not a perfect example of a benevolent dictator.

Finally, Libya was not invaded, the UNSC authorized the use of airpower against the government forces who, before the deal was made, had its leader on state television say that he will find all those protesting and rebelling against him (at this point, this was the whole city of Benghazi and the entire east of the country) and kill them like cockroaches, in every street, in every alleyway, in every house. You might say this was an exaggeration, but I'm glad we didn't have a chance to see if it was. The UN and the West are blamed (rightly so) for not intervening earlier and stopping the Genocides in Yugoslavia and Rwanda and they shouldn't be blamed for identifying a flashpoint for a genocide (a leader promising to kill all those opposed to him) and stepping in to stop it from happening.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I may be wrong on the moderate rebels but the point is it was a huge miscalculation and the weapons/humvees/etc ended up in ISIS' hands. Besides, those "moderate rebels" are fighting Assad, who is fighting ISIS. Surely we should worry about ISIS first, Assad later.

And don't get me wrong Assad is terrible, but every time we get rid of a secular dictator it seems we get something even worse in return. The guy sucks but he seems like the best case scenario for Syria at the moment. Definitely while the region is so volatile.

Gaddafi sucks too, but my problem is that Libya is a destabilized mess that ISIS is invading now, and that Congress did not authorize the bombings. I think that would be a violation of the War Power's Act.

Also, he had signed a nuclear agreement with us (in 2003 I believe), so killing someone who agrees to get rid of their nuclear weapons program is not a very good way of positioning to make other deals with nations to prevent them from acquiring said weapons.

The middle east is not comparable to Rwanda and Yugoslavia, IMO, although I'm by no means an expert on those genocides, but according to my understanding of those issues I would have definitely supported intervention there. There's already a massive amount of resentment towards the west which increases each time we intervene, and is then exploited by terrorists to recruit more and more people.

[–]flyingdragon8Retro Neoclassical Kanyesian 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I legit can't think of any Clinton scandal that would make me want to vote for anyone over her. Like if it came out that she straight up killed a dude 10 years ago, I would still vote for her. The upside from her superior policies far exceeds the downside from any imaginable scandal she might have. Unless like I dunno she literally sold warhead designs to Putin or something.

Unless it's just a question about electability in the general, in which case the scandal would have to be one hell of a scandal to make her less electable than a self declared secular socialist.

Her flip flops on closer inspection aren't as flip floppy as people think. And she consistently pushes for positions I support, but only up to the point where it runs against overwhelming political consensus (like say on LGBT rights). Which is reasonable, I can respect her realism. Biting off more than you can chew is counterproductive.

[–]jsmooth7 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

So many discussion threads to choose between today!

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 2ポイント3ポイント  (7子コメント)

So if things go as badly for Bernie as the polls are suggesting how long do you think he'll stay in the race?

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced[S] 2ポイント3ポイント  (6子コメント)

Defiant till the convention?

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 2ポイント3ポイント  (4子コメント)

I don't think so. I think he'll feel a decent amount of pressure to drop out earlier to unify that's party for the general election.

[–]weezer3989Fiat currency can't melt gold bars 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I'd buy that argument more if he actually was a democrat or cared about the party itself. I just don't see him being swayed by arguments about what's best for the Democratic party, when he's only been in the party for slightly longer than he's been running.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

He voted with the Democrats before this election. He was a Democrat in all but name. I would think he would at least have an interest in making sure the GOP nomine didn't win. But I could be wrong, I didn't expect him to throw the former CEA chairs under the bus.

[–]Sogsworth 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

He doesn't need to drop out in order to pivot to attacking Trump and emphasizing his agreement with Hillary on core principles.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

He has raised quite a bit of money to still pump out his message.

[–]lux514 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes, he stated during the first debate, iirc, he's determined to stay in it until the convention.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 1ポイント2ポイント  (8子コメント)

Being a right winger was a lot more fun when the biggest threat to the right was losing to Hillary, but still maintaining control of most local/state govs and congress.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced[S] 2ポイント3ポイント  (7子コメント)

This sub actually brought me more center than I used to be and I'm terrified of 3 of the 5 left and the other 2 are still frightening

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 1ポイント2ポイント  (6子コメント)

Same. Who's your candidate for GOP? I'm rooting for Cruz at this point as the lesser of the three evils that actually has a shot of winning the nomination.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

I'm curious. Why Cruz instead of Rubio?

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Civil liberties and foreign policy. Rubio wants to restore the NSA and expand it, criminalize gay marriage, shut down mosques, restaurants, and other areas extremists might gather (and monitor them if they aren't shut down). Rubio's foreign policy, at least from what I've gathered from the debates, seems to be "bomb everything that moves and then send in a shitload of troops."

Rubio is better on econ but the civil liberties stances alone are unforgivable to me, and I'm not looking for NeoConservatism on steroids when it comes to foreign policy.

Cruz certainly has many flaws, but he's the only one I can vote for without hating myself for doing it (besides Kasich but by the time PA votes he won't be in the race).

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

I guess I always assumed that Cruz was as if not more socially conservative then Rubio. Which from what you're saying may have not been a good assumption.

[–]vShockAndAwevSupply don't real 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Cruz is also a Constitutional Conservative/Tea Partier, so apart from abortion which he believes falls under the federal government's role of protecting life, I'm fairly positive he's mostly a state's rights guy when it comes to the other social issues.

[–]centurion44Vox Bourgeosie 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm sorry what. This is outright falsehoods especially when comparing Rubio with Cruz.

Rubio wants to restore the NSA and expand it

So does Cruz, lets look back to the idiotic apple stuff. Rubio was the only one saying we shouldn't 'boycott apple and let them die'.

criminalize gay marriage,

Lmao, yeah, Ted Cruz is a shining example of supporting gay marriage. Oh wait no, he hates it and wants to get right of it. "Criminalizing gay marriage" Apparently Marco Rubio is Uganda. All I've heard him say is let states decide but keep Doma. I find this distasteful but huge misrepresentation.

shut down mosques, restaurants, and other areas extremists might gather (and monitor them if they aren't shut down)

Ted Cruz

Sound sjust like what Rubio said, close down mosques with 'extremists' or any place with extremists. Which the government already does. You aren't allowed to foment violent insurrection or assaults on the government as it is.

Rubio's foreign policy, at least from what I've gathered from the debates, seems to be "bomb everything that moves and then send in a shitload of troops."

Sorry, but this is the biggest load of shit I've seen. The debates to date have consisted of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump trying to one up each other on how to carpet bomb isis and kill their families fastest while Rubio says shit like http://www.wmur.com/politics/granite-state-debates/2016-gop-debate-marco-rubio-on-fight-against-isis/37862572

Please.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Mr Gold Standard himself? Interesting.

[–]Vagabond21They call me "Bond" because the return on my comments is fixed. 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can't decide whether to buy Trump shares to hedge against my anger from hm potentially winning, or to buy Clinton who I think will win with higher chance than the market predicts (blasphemy, I know).

[–]Kai_Daigoji 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm already half thinking Bernie's going to get Vermont, and that's it.

[–]wshanahana slightly less shitty libertarian 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

saw this in another thread.

Bernie Sanders right now

[–]urnbabyurnPezzonovante 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ok, now Rove is using his clipboard so this should get fun.