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videoSpontaneous order, not top-down programs like Guaranteed Basic Income, is the way to foster prosperity for mankind [November, 2012] (youtube.com)

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[–]forest_garden 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

Sounds like a capitalist propaganda piece. Guaranteed basic income's purpose IS to facilitate "spontaneous order" because it avoids government intervention in what you do with that money, while reducing poverty. When poverty is reduced, it further facilitates greater participation. It's a virtuous cycle and win-win. That's what you miss.

[–]aminok[S] -4ポイント-3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Global poverty rates are declining at the fastest rate in history. Capitalism works according to any metric that we can study. This is not propaganda, it is fact.

GBI is TOP DOWN order. It is a government monopoly, making it compulsory to redistribute the currency one receives in trade, to others. It is not "spontanteous".

it avoids government intervention in what you do with that money, while reducing poverty.

It allows more spontaneous order than government-subsidized health care, or foodstamps, but it is still a top-down program designed to help people.

The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.

[–]forest_garden 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Oh yeah, did I say propaganda? http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Competitive_Enterprise_Institute

[–]aminok[S] -2ポイント-1ポイント  (0子コメント)

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2016/0207/Progress-in-the-global-war-on-poverty

Almost unnoticed, the world has reduced poverty, increased incomes, and improved health more than at any time in history.

The video is not propaganda. It is fact. The source has a strong view on free markets being the best way to foster prosperity for humankind, because that is what the evidence overwhelmingly shows, and it is trying to educate people, because many people like GBI supporters need to be educated. Nothing wrong with promoting facts.

[–]ptarmiganagain 1ポイント2ポイント  (6子コメント)

"If you look at traffic, you can see the pattern."

  • Yeah, that's because of our signals, signs, and right of way. You know, law. Lack of these result in chaos.

"No central authority has ever commanded that we speak a certain way."

  • One of the best writing systems in the world, Korean, was created and disseminated by Sejong the Great. It is praised for its consistency and ease of learning. Most languages are terrible, including English.

Aside from these terrible examples that these people provided, there is no reason they state that this "spontaneous order" should serve anyone except our aristocratic oligarchy. Technology rides an exponential curve, and you think that the rich (who are riding this exponential curve to increase their wealth) aren't going to rig the game as they go? You think they'll allow the market to be free? You think that they will deign to give us anything more than the meager scraps that will keep the whole system from falling down?

What elitist tripe. Might as well just tell us all to bend over and take it up the ass.

[–]aminok[S] -1ポイント0ポイント  (5子コメント)

Yeah, that's because of our signals, signs, and right of way. You know, law. Lack of these result in chaos.

Most traffic patterns you see on the road are in fact not a result of law, and many traffic laws are a product of driving conventions, where custom was turned into law, rather than the other way around.

And actually, intersections without lights work marvelously:

Accident-free zone: The German town which scrapped all traffic lights and road signs

Spontaneous order!

One of the best writing systems in the world, Korean, was created and disseminated by Sejong the Great.

writing system != language

A language is unstructured, ever evolving and ever expanding, unlike a writing system, which lends itself well to the formal approach.

Aside from these terrible examples that these people provided, there is no reason they state that this "spontaneous order" should serve anyone except our aristocratic oligarchy.

So aside from your terrible responses, the reason we know that spontaneous order serves the world is that we can see the statistics:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2016/0207/Progress-in-the-global-war-on-poverty

Almost unnoticed, the world has reduced poverty, increased incomes, and improved health more than at any time in history.

Some of these gains – especially the declines in poverty and child mortality – rank among the greatest achievements in history. Yet few people are aware that they are even happening. Most people believe that, apart from a few special cases such as China and India, developing countries by and large remain hopelessly mired in poverty, stagnation, and dictatorship. Yet the reality is quite different: A major transformation is quietly under way, affecting the lives of hundreds of millions of people in nearly every corner of the world.

Unsurprisingly, mankind can be trusted to its own devices, without a formal and deliberate intervention to bring a centralized order, where the masses are forced to act in accordance with a grand plan. It turns out that a spontaneous order, where the masses act as individual units, collaborating in unimaginably complex relationships of their own making that are guided by the diffuse mass knowledge of humanity, is superior.

[–]ptarmiganagain [スコア非表示]  (4子コメント)

Bohmte pop: 12,621. Yeah, not going to work in my city. Instant gridlock. There are drawbacks to this system that don't scale up well.

writing system != language

It's written "language". My point exactly is that spoken language is, by and large, terrible because it is a naturally evolving system. It's a bad example because our spoken language is extremely cobbled together, not at all elegant, and very inefficient.

Evolution is a great system, but it has only ever been "just good enough" (females die in labor, appendixes explode, etc). We can, and often do, do better than that if we create our own system. That's why we have things like patents, regulations, and other laws. I'm not going to rely on "spontaneous order" to keep the local factory from dumping sewage into the river.

the reason we know that spontaneous order serves the world is that we can see the statistics:

There are a lot of complex reasons that global poverty is falling. I'm not seeing any statistics in your source as to the weighting of the causes of this (only narrative), and I suspect that it's nigh impossible to tease apart. Do not forget that a factor in the elimination of destitute poverty is foreign aid, as well as the construction of institutions that aid a better future.

My bottom line here is that control of a system is not always good, not always bad. We can't always rely on a system to organize itself and say that it's impossible to tweak it to work better. It must be administered with a tempered hand, of course. It very well could be that minimum basic income could actually aid a market system. After all, if a massive upset in automation leaves large swaths of the population without employment, and not enough time to train for a new job while paying the bills, who can afford to buy these things that are being made by the automated systems? Consumers need money.

Yes, in the past, there have been corrections, but they have been slow because they have all been behind the "knee" of the exponential curve. People might not be able to retrain for new jobs at the exponential pace that technology will replace them.

[–]aminok[S] [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

It's written "language".

A writing system != "written language". It's merely a system for communicating words of a language. Those same words can also be communicated using speech.

Language is not categorically written or spoken. It can be communicated through both mediums.

My point exactly is that spoken language is, by and large, terrible because it is a naturally evolving system.

Natural language is far and away the most incredible communication protocol in the world. A formally designed language would stand no chance of developing fast enough to compete with a naturally evolving language in efficiently conveying the vast complexity of a changing world.

Evolution is a great system, but it has only ever been "just good enough" (females die in labor, appendixes explode, etc). We can, and often do, do better than that if we create our own system.

Biological evolution is just the first phase of the processes of spontaneous order. It is the spontaneous order of the market that led to us developing the complex economy we have today, that provides the great wealth needed to support modern medicine, scientific research, and infrastructure.

Design plays a role in our economy, but it is a small one relative to the role played by the spontaneous order created by market interactions. Nothing we design can come close to the complexity and productivity of a spontaneous phenomenon, like a global free market, a global supply chain, or a global language.

Design is usually ideal for small scale systems, like computer processors, that can be fully formalized by a small number of people working together. Any complex system that can involve more people than can be in direct communication is better handled through spontaneous order, meaning interaction without a top-down order.

There are a lot of complex reasons that global poverty is falling.

The rapid pace of improvement in the global standard of living completely dispels the claims about automation benefiting the rich at the expense of the poor absent redistributive programs. In much of the developing world where these rapid gains are happening, there is no effective government program to redistribute income. In fact, statistically speaking, income redistribution harms GDP growth, which is the number 1 indicator of poverty reduction.

[–]ptarmiganagain [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

The rapid pace of improvement in the global standard of living completely dispels the claims about automation benefiting the rich at the expense of the poor absent redistributive programs. In much of the developing world where these rapid gains are happening, there is no effective government program to redistribute income. In fact, statistically speaking, income redistribution harms GDP growth, which is the number 1 indicator of poverty reduction.

This completely ignores my last two paragraphs. We are transitioning into a more and more skilled labor force, in which gaining skills are projected to not keep up with jobs made obsolete. This can in no way compare to the developing world, which is mostly unskilled labor.

There is a huge difference between someone who's been put out of a job in the developing world and the developed world. We're already seeing people put years into training, putting money into school and bills to get an education, only to find out that their chosen field is being automated. This is happening to paralegals already, who have earned degrees, only to find out that they've already been replaced by "discovery" software. Journalist bots are writing articles now. Multiply this by self driving cars, robots like Atlas, and advanced AI like Watson. There is nothing stopping businesses from adopting this technology.

If you look at a developing country's largely unskilled labor force, these factors are not at play at all since unskilled labor requires little education. Apples and oranges.

[–]aminok[S] [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

We are transitioning into a more and more skilled labor force, in which gaining skills are projected to not keep up with jobs made obsolete.

There is absolutely no evidence for automation eliminating jobs in the developed world.

The unemployment rate in the US is lower right now than it was in 1963, when it was a much less developed economy.

In countries with lower rates of income redistribution, like Singapore, the unemployment rate is even lower, and they are trying to find ways to reduce demand for foreign labour.

There is simply nothing to support the theory of technological unemployment except fearmongering theories.

There is nothing else to say to you, because your entire argument relies on something that is unsubstantiated and contradicted by reality.

[–]ptarmiganagain [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I just gave you two examples. Translation is another one. Pilots are another. I can dig up more if you like. It's not that the industries are being eliminated altogether yet, but it's slowly dialing down the number of workers needed, barring new entries.

This is only the very beginning, and experts are talking about it a lot. I'll dig up some sources on that for you too in the morning. The tech is in the pipeline, and the macro effects are yet to manifest. If you can't see that far ahead at least, you have some serious blinders on your face.

[–]NewlyMintedAdult 0ポイント1ポイント  (13子コメント)

Definitely don't see how this addresses the problems creating a need for Basic Income.

[–]aminok[S] -3ポイント-2ポイント  (12子コメント)

the problems

Which problems? Global poverty rates are declining at their fastest rates in history, wages are increasing, and millions of jobs are being created, EVERY YEAR.

The spontaneous order of global capitalism is working. It's only propaganda and fearmongering that says otherwise.

Global poverty has fallen faster during the past 20 years than at any time in history.

[–]NewlyMintedAdult 1ポイント2ポイント  (5子コメント)

Here is one. The increasing prevalence of automation threatens a variety of low-skill jobs. As technology improves, jobs that once required people (e.g. Truck driving) will be performed by machines (e.g. self-driving cars). When a machine can do almost anything that an IQ 80 human could do, and do it cheaper than the minimal livable wage, IQ 80 humans suddenly become redundant as employees. Without social intervention, that means that said individuals literally can't survive off of their own labor. This is obviously bad.

Furthermore, the is no intrinsic reason that IQ 80 is the limit. At some point, machines will be able to do anything an IQ 100 human can do, and then anything an IQ 120 human can do, and then anything an IQ 140 human can do. At some point, we all end up below this technological waterline. At that point, everyone who isn't getting income by owning shares in said machines is going to be unable to pay their own way, even if they make every effort to do so.

"Spontaneous Order" doesn't solve this in the slightest. Even if a bunch of disenfranchised people chose to come together to form a business or something, that business would be easily outcompeted by others who use cheaper non-human labor. They can't even turn to something like farming to get enough resources to subside on - to farm, you need to own land, and they almost certainly don't.

[–]aminok[S] -2ポイント-1ポイント  (4子コメント)

Here is one. The increasing prevalence of automation threatens a variety of low-skill jobs.

It doesn't threaten anything.

Global poverty rates are declining at their fastest rates in history, wages are increasing, and millions of jobs are being created, EVERY YEAR.

WHY? Because automation increases opportunities for the unskilled and skilled alike.

"Spontaneous Order" doesn't solve this in the slightest.

You are denying the facts:

Global poverty has fallen faster during the past 20 years than at any time in history.

[–]NewlyMintedAdult 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Is there a reason you feel a need to repeat the same lines and the same link with literally every post you make here? It makes your replies look and feel particularly spammy.

[–]aminok[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I need to repeat it to people who are trying to evade the facts to repeat the same myths about automation making the poor worse off.

[–]Tiger3720 [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Millions of jobs are being created until they won't be and the unskilled will likely be the first to go.

I'm not being dismissive of your point. I think you're right in having the discussion and exposing people to this but to deny the future impact of automation and AI is to ignore the tremendous social change that is coming.

[–]aminok[S] [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

AI will never start taking human jobs. AI is limited by our legal system, which will neither allow sentient AI to be owned, nor allow an AI to engage in unstructured and independent interaction with the world, the way humans do.

[–]forest_garden 1ポイント2ポイント  (5子コメント)

Good news indeed. Therefore, now we have plenty of money and technology to fund a basic income and decrease poverty even further.

[–]aminok[S] -3ポイント-2ポイント  (4子コメント)

All we have to do is learn about how spontaneous order maximizes the productive energies of humanity, to understand that any top-down government efforts, including GBI (earners being forced by a government monopoly to hand over the currency they receive in trade, to others) will only handicap our progress.

[–]forest_garden 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Brainwashing victim detected.

[–]aminok[S] -4ポイント-3ポイント  (2子コメント)

That is such an ironic statement for you to make, with your idiotic anti-capitalism obsession.

Your ideological beliefs:

"Corporations are eating the world! They're exploiting the poor and making themselves richer at everyone else's expense! The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer! Stop Capitalism! Institute GBI so that we're no longer slaves! Kony 2012!"

Reality:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2016/0207/Progress-in-the-global-war-on-poverty

Almost unnoticed, the world has reduced poverty, increased incomes, and improved health more than at any time in history.

Some of these gains – especially the declines in poverty and child mortality – rank among the greatest achievements in history. Yet few people are aware that they are even happening. Most people believe that, apart from a few special cases such as China and India, developing countries by and large remain hopelessly mired in poverty, stagnation, and dictatorship. Yet the reality is quite different: A major transformation is quietly under way, affecting the lives of hundreds of millions of people in nearly every corner of the world.

Please stop being such a mindless brainwashing victim for whatever ideology is in vogue.

[–]forest_garden -2ポイント-1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I'm neutral, you're not.

[–]aminok[S] -3ポイント-2ポイント  (0子コメント)

You deny facts when they suggest that spontaneous order works. That is not neutrality.

[–]Hankaron 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

In iceland language does not evolve spontaneously, every time they discover a new thing they call a council to decide on the name of a new thing, they name this new thing based on words they already have, i.e. a Bananna becomes "bent yellow fruit".

[–]aminok[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

So sad seeing greedy GBI supporters downvoting explanations on how economic processes work.

[–]aminok[S] -3ポイント-2ポイント  (3子コメント)

The spontaneous order of global capitalism, free of any government program like a global guaranteed basic income, is helping mankind progress at its fastest rate in history:

Global poverty has fallen faster during the past 20 years than at any time in history.

All we have to do is learn about how spontaneous order maximizes the productive energies of humanity, to understand that any top-down government efforts will only handicap our progress.

[–]Lighthead77golden sun-shee 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Your post might be unpopular on this sub, but I think that the discussion needs to be had. I have yet to see the video (on my short list), but it makes sense intuitively.

[–]aminok[S] -2ポイント-1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Thanks. If you haven't seen it already, I strongly recommend this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYO3tOqDISE

[–]Lighthead77golden sun-shee 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thanks. I just saved your reply.