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FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each firm’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, a firm’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race, and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls.
PUBLISHED 1:00 PM EDT | SEPT 25, 2014
PollsterCalls CellphonesNCPP/AAPOR/RoperPolls analyzedSimple Average ErrorSimple +/-Advanced +/-Predictive +/-538 GradeBanned by 538Mean-Reverted Bias
SurveyUSA
◐
●
722
4.5
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
A
R+0.2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
623
5.3
0.0
+0.3
+0.7
C
R+2.3
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
●
407
5.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.3
B+
R+1.1
Zogby Analytics, telephone
376
5.4
+0.2
+0.3
+0.7
C
R+0.5
Public Policy Polling
297
4.6
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
B-
R+0.7
Research 2000
279
5.5
+0.2
+0.1
+0.5
F
✖
D+1.4
YouGov
230
4.3
-0.2
-0.2
+0.3
C+
R+1.2
American Research Group
●
223
7.3
+0.9
+0.7
+0.8
C-
R+0.1
Quinnipiac University
●
●
133
4.6
-0.7
-0.2
-0.3
B+
R+0.9
TCJ Research
133
6.4
+2.1
+3.0
+2.9
F
✖
R+4.5
Strategic Vision, LLC
129
4.0
-0.8
-0.2
+0.3
F
✖
R+1.9
Harris Interactive, online
●
126
5.5
+1.9
+1.2
+1.1
D+
R+1.7
Marist College
●
●
99
5.0
-0.5
-0.2
-0.3
B+
R+1.5
InsiderAdvantage
89
8.1
+1.4
+1.2
+1.3
D
D+0.3
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
86
6.5
+1.9
+2.7
+2.5
F
R+1.4
Gallup
●
●
80
4.3
-0.3
+0.8
+0.4
C+
R+0.8
University of New Hampshire
●
●
75
5.4
0.0
+0.1
-0.1
B
D+1.5
CNN/Opinion Research Corp.
●
●
72
4.6
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
A-
R+0.6
Suffolk University
●
55
5.0
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2
B
D+1.1
CBS News/New York Times
●
●
54
4.8
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
B
D+0.7
ABC News/Washington Post
●
●
50
3.1
-1.5
-0.7
-0.7
A-
D+0.6
Public Opinion Strategies
●
46
6.0
+0.4
+0.3
+0.3
C+
R+2.1
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)
●
46
4.4
-0.4
+0.3
+0.4
C+
D+2.3
RT Strategies
●
●
42
5.8
+0.7
0.0
-0.2
B
D+1.1
We Ask America
42
6.0
+0.9
+0.5
+0.8
C-
R+1.5
Los Angeles Times
●
●
40
5.2
-0.7
-0.3
-0.4
B+
R+0.6
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)
●
●
38
3.7
-1.6
-0.8
-0.6
A-
R+1.5
EPIC-MRA
●
38
5.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
B
R+0.3
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corp.
●
34
3.9
-0.7
+0.3
+0.3
C+
R+0.5
Selzer & Company
●
●
32
4.1
-1.3
-1.5
-1.0
A+
D+0.0
Siena College
●
●
32
5.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.6
A-
R+0.8
George Washington University (Battleground)
●
32
3.5
-0.7
+0.5
+0.4
C+
R+1.0
Monmouth University
●
●
31
4.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
A-
R+0.1
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
●
●
31
4.6
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
B
D+0.2
Pharos Research Group
31
4.0
-0.8
-0.5
+0.3
F
✖
D+0.9
Mitchell Research & Communications
30
5.3
-0.4
+0.1
+0.6
C
R+0.3
Grove Insight
●
29
3.1
-1.7
-2.1
-0.9
A
D+0.5
Angus Reid Global
29
3.3
-1.5
-1.6
-0.2
B
R+1.3
ccAdvertising
●
29
6.9
+1.9
+1.3
+0.8
C-
R+2.6
Dan Jones & Associates
28
6.6
+1.1
+0.1
+0.6
C
D+1.0
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.
◐
27
5.4
+0.2
+0.6
+0.7
C
D+0.2
Market Shares Corp.
●
●
26
6.8
+1.3
-0.1
-0.3
B+
R+1.7
RKM Research and Communications, Inc.
●
26
5.6
-0.5
-0.9
-0.2
B
R+0.2
Research & Polling, Inc.
●
24
4.3
-1.1
-1.2
-0.4
B+
R+0.6
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)
●
●
23
3.9
-1.6
-2.5
-1.3
A+
R+1.1
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
●
●
23
4.1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
A-
D+0.5
Ipsos, online
●
22
4.8
+0.6
+0.2
+0.3
C+
R+0.5
KRC/Communications Research
22
6.9
+0.2
-0.5
+0.4
C+
D+0.2
Ipsos, telephone
●
●
21
3.8
-1.3
-1.2
-0.7
A-
D+0.4
Muhlenberg College
●
●
20
2.9
-2.1
-1.2
-0.7
A-
R+0.5
Mellman Group
●
20
4.9
0.0
-0.2
+0.1
B-
D+1.6
Gravis Marketing
◐
20
3.9
0.0
+0.6
+0.6
C
R+1.4
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
●
19
5.3
-0.3
-1.0
-0.2
B
D+1.2
Tarrance Group
●
19
5.5
-0.4
-0.9
-0.2
B
R+0.9
Pew Research Center
●
●
19
3.2
-0.6
+0.3
-0.1
B
D+0.4
McLaughlin & Associates
●
19
5.7
+0.4
+1.3
+0.7
C
R+0.5
Franklin Pierce University
19
6.5
+0.6
+0.5
+0.8
C-
D+1.3
Blum & Weprin Associates
●
18
4.6
-0.5
-2.8
-0.9
A
R+1.0
GfK Group
●
●
18
3.5
-1.2
-0.8
-0.5
A-
R+0.0
Penn Schoen Berland
●
18
7.6
+1.5
+0.7
+0.4
C+
D+2.5
Global Strategy Group
18
5.5
-0.1
-0.2
+0.5
C+
D+1.0
Ciruli Associates
●
●
17
3.6
-1.9
-2.0
-1.0
A+
R+0.7
Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)
●
●
17
4.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.6
A-
R+0.0
IBD/TIPP
●
17
2.3
-1.2
-0.9
-0.1
B
R+0.7
Columbus Dispatch
●
17
5.1
+0.6
+1.1
+0.6
C
D+1.1
Merriman River Group
●
17
7.4
+2.3
+2.0
+0.9
C-
R+1.8
Critical Insights
●
17
8.6
+2.9
+2.2
+1.0
C-
D+0.3
Elway Research
●
●
16
4.4
-1.5
-1.9
-0.9
A
D+0.5
Franklin & Marshall College
●
●
15
4.3
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
B+
R+0.5
Financial Dynamics
15
2.8
-1.8
-0.8
+0.4
C+
R+0.7
Fleming & Associates
●
14
4.9
-0.9
-1.2
-0.2
B
R+0.5
Pan Atlantic SMS Group
●
13
6.7
+0.6
-0.8
0.0
B
D+0.5
Rutgers University
●
●
13
5.7
+0.6
+1.9
+0.4
C+
D+0.1
Star Tribune
●
13
6.3
+2.0
+1.9
+0.8
C-
D+1.5
National Journal
●
●
12
2.6
-2.4
-2.1
-0.8
A
R+0.2
Google Consumer Surveys
12
2.2
-0.8
-1.2
+0.3
C+
R+0.6
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall, Inc.
●
11
2.4
-2.6
-2.2
-0.4
B+
R+0.0
SoonerPoll.com
●
●
11
6.9
+1.1
-0.4
-0.3
B+
D+1.5
St. Norbert College
●
11
3.8
-2.3
-2.0
-0.3
B+
D+0.1
Richard Day Research, Inc.
●
11
5.5
+0.2
-1.0
-0.1
B
R+0.8
University of Massachusetts Amherst
●
11
6.5
-1.0
-0.4
+0.1
B-
R+0.4
Ward Research (Honolulu Star-Advertiser)
●
11
6.4
+0.7
-0.2
+0.2
B-
R+0.7
Capital Survey Research Center
11
7.8
+0.9
-1.3
+0.3
C+
D+0.1
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
●
11
7.6
+1.7
+2.5
+0.9
C-
D+1.4
Public Policy Institute of California
●
●
10
4.0
-2.0
-1.9
-0.7
A-
R+0.6
University of Washington
●
10
4.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
B
D+0.2
Louisville Courier-Journal
10
3.3
-1.8
-1.8
+0.2
B-
R+0.3
Tel Opinion Research
10
3.2
-1.8
-1.2
+0.3
C+
R+0.0
Landmark Communications
10
4.5
-0.7
-0.8
+0.5
C+
R+0.6
Wilson Research Strategies
10
6.9
+1.1
+0.4
+0.8
C-
R+0.1
Opinion Research Associates
10
6.0
+0.6
+0.9
+0.9
C-
D+1.0
Big Ten
10
4.8
+0.4
+1.3
+1.0
C-
D+1.1
Humphrey Institute
●
10
13.1
+7.4
+6.7
+1.9
D-
D+0.8
Lake Research Partners
●
9
3.8
-1.7
-2.2
-0.3
B+
D+0.5
Western New England University
●
●
9
6.3
+0.7
0.0
-0.2
B
R+1.0
Market Research Institute, Inc.
9
2.9
-2.2
-2.2
+0.2
B-
R+0.3
St. Cloud State University
●
●
9
6.5
+1.1
+1.8
+0.2
B-
D+0.4
Bennett Petts & Blumenthal
9
5.7
-0.3
-0.9
+0.4
C+
D+0.3
Talmey-Drake Research & Strategy, Inc.
●
9
7.7
+2.1
+1.0
+0.5
C+
R+0.4
Harris Interactive, telephone
●
9
5.7
+1.7
+1.4
+0.5
C+
D+0.5
Dittman Research
9
5.9
+0.5
-0.2
+0.6
C
D+1.0
Roanoke College
●
9
6.9
+1.3
+2.3
+0.8
C-
R+0.0
University of South Alabama
●
8
2.7
-2.4
-2.8
-0.4
B+
R+0.4
Potomac Incorporated
8
4.5
-1.4
-1.4
+0.4
C+
R+0.5
Schroth, Eldon & Associates
8
3.2
-2.4
-1.1
+0.4
C+
D+0.6
Arizona State University
●
8
8.0
+2.1
+2.0
+0.7
C
D+0.9
Benenson Strategy Group
8
6.4
+0.5
+0.2
+0.7
C
D+0.5
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc.
8
6.5
+0.5
+0.9
+0.9
C-
R+0.6
Southeastern Louisiana University
8
6.6
+1.5
+1.7
+1.0
C-
D+0.0
Datamar
8
6.3
+1.0
+2.0
+1.1
D+
R+0.4
Brown University
8
9.8
+2.8
+2.4
+1.2
D+
R+0.5
Wenzel Strategies
◐
8
8.2
+3.9
+4.6
+1.4
D
R+1.7
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain)
●
●
7
3.5
-3.1
-2.4
-0.6
A-
D+0.1
Montana State University Billings
●
7
3.6
-2.2
-4.2
-0.6
A-
D+0.6
University of Connecticut
●
●
7
3.6
-1.7
-1.8
-0.5
A-
R+0.4
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc.
●
7
4.2
-1.7
-0.9
+0.1
B-
D+0.7
Riley Research Associates
7
2.7
-3.0
-2.6
+0.2
B-
R+0.1
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates
●
7
5.9
+0.3
+0.7
+0.4
C+
D+1.0
Howey Politics/DePauw University
●
7
6.8
+1.5
+1.0
+0.4
C+
D+0.1
West Chester University
7
5.2
0.0
0.0
+0.7
C
D+0.2
Hays Research Group
●
7
7.7
+2.7
+2.3
+0.7
C
D+1.1
Wiese Research Associates, Inc.
●
7
8.8
+3.0
+2.3
+0.7
C
D+1.3
Constituent Dynamics
7
7.4
+0.5
+0.4
+0.7
C
R+0.0
Hamilton Campaigns
7
6.4
+0.9
+1.8
+1.0
C-
D+1.2
Marketing Workshop
7
9.7
+4.7
+3.1
+1.3
D
D+0.3
University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll)
●
6
6.9
+1.4
-0.1
+0.2
B-
D+0.2
Ethridge & Associates, LLC
6
2.7
-2.1
-2.2
+0.3
C+
R+0.1
Temple University
6
3.7
-1.5
-1.4
+0.4
C+
R+0.4
Magellan Strategies
●
6
7.9
+2.7
+1.2
+0.5
C+
R+0.6
OnMessage Inc.
●
6
9.1
+3.3
+2.4
+0.6
C
R+1.1
Yankelovich Partners, Inc.
6
7.0
+0.5
+0.2
+0.7
C
R+0.1
Public Strategies, Inc.
6
7.9
+0.2
+0.7
+0.8
C-
OpinionWorks
6
7.3
+2.1
+1.1
+0.9
C-
R+0.5
Baydoun Consulting
6
6.8
+2.0
+3.4
+1.3
D
R+1.0
Nielson Brothers Polling
6
8.5
+3.9
+4.6
+1.4
D
D+1.4
Valley Research
6
11.5
+7.0
+5.1
+1.5
D
D+0.4
Time/Abt SRBI
●
●
5
2.7
-2.3
-1.1
-0.3
B+
D+0.2
Virginia Commonwealth University
●
●
5
4.9
0.0
+0.6
-0.1
B
R+0.3
Voter/Consumer Research
●
5
5.1
-0.5
-1.0
+0.1
B-
R+0.4
American Viewpoint
●
5
4.6
-0.8
-0.2
+0.2
B-
R+0.7
Moore Information
●
5
7.4
+1.3
+0.5
+0.3
C+
R+0.4
Crawford Johnson & Northcott Inc.
5
4.6
-3.0
-2.4
+0.4
C+
D+0.1
Glengariff Group, Inc.
●
5
6.1
+0.3
+0.7
+0.4
C+
R+0.1
International Communications Research, Inc.
5
3.1
-0.8
-1.3
+0.5
C+
R+0.1
Rhode Island College
5
6.1
+0.2
-0.2
+0.7
C
R+0.2
University of New Orleans
5
5.0
-0.1
+0.5
+0.8
C-
R+0.2
Ed Renwick
5
6.5
+1.0
+0.6
+0.8
C-
D+0.1
Greg Smith and Associates
5
8.5
+3.0
+2.7
+1.1
D+
D+1.2
20/20 Insight
5
16.6
+9.8
+3.6
+1.2
D+
D+0.0
Millersville University
5
14.1
+8.9
+6.1
+1.6
D-
R+1.5
Marquette University
●
4
0.9
-4.6
-3.7
-0.2
B
R+0.0
MassINC Polling Group
●
4
2.3
-3.3
-2.9
-0.1
B
R+0.3
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research
●
●
4
3.4
-0.4
+1.0
0.0
B
R+0.4
University of Southern California
●
4
4.8
-0.1
-2.4
0.0
B
R+0.6
National Research, Inc.
●
4
5.1
-0.8
-1.8
+0.1
B-
R+0.5
Market Decisions
●
4
5.2
+0.2
-1.3
+0.1
B-
R+0.1
Orion Strategies
4
3.1
-3.1
-4.0
+0.2
B-
D+0.1
Hill Research Consultants
●
4
5.4
+0.3
-0.3
+0.2
B-
R+0.4
Northern Arizona University
4
3.6
-1.9
-3.4
+0.3
C+
R+0.4
Alabama State University
4
6.4
-2.0
-3.2
+0.3
C+
Southern Media & Opinion Research
●
4
6.4
+0.9
+0.5
+0.3
C+
D+0.0
CallFire
●
4
3.9
+0.1
+0.8
+0.4
C+
R+0.5
Clemson University
●
4
12.2
+4.8
+0.9
+0.4
C+
R+0.5
Hendrix College
4
3.9
-2.2
-2.4
+0.4
C+
D+0.5
Frank N. Magid Associates, Inc.
4
4.6
-1.1
-2.3
+0.4
C+
D+0.5
Marshall Marketing & Communications
4
2.8
-3.2
-2.1
+0.4
C+
R+0.2
Scripps Howard
4
3.8
-1.0
-2.1
+0.5
C+
R+0.1
IVR Polls
4
4.1
-3.4
-2.0
+0.5
C+
Philadelphia Inquirer
4
3.0
-1.8
-1.4
+0.5
C+
R+0.3
Richmond Times-Dispatch
4
3.3
-1.2
-1.2
+0.6
C
D+0.3
Market Solutions Group
4
4.3
-1.4
-1.1
+0.6
C
R+0.0
OnPoint
4
1.7
-2.6
-0.9
+0.6
C
D+0.2
Wirthlin Worldwide
4
4.6
-1.0
-0.9
+0.6
C
R+0.5
Purple Strategies
4
3.0
-0.9
-0.5
+0.6
C
R+0.4
Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV)
4
4.6
-0.8
-0.2
+0.7
C
D+0.5
Kimball Political Consulting
●
4
8.1
+3.7
+4.3
+0.8
C-
R+1.0
Marketing Resource Group (MRG)
●
4
10.4
+4.3
+4.7
+0.8
C-
R+0.3
Consumer Logic
4
8.8
+3.2
+2.9
+1.0
C-
D+0.6
Minnesota State University Moorhead
4
9.3
+3.5
+3.1
+1.1
D+
D+0.5
Elon University
●
●
3
3.4
-0.5
+0.4
-0.1
B
D+0.2
New England College
●
3
1.5
-2.0
-3.5
0.0
B
R+0.1
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates
●
3
3.4
-1.8
-2.4
+0.1
B-
D+0.3
Knowledge Networks
●
3
4.1
-0.7
-1.3
+0.2
B-
R+0.0
US News & World Report
3
1.9
-2.8
-4.6
+0.3
C+
R+0.1
NPR
●
3
5.0
+0.1
+0.7
+0.3
C+
D+0.1
Clarus Research Group
●
3
6.8
+1.2
+1.0
+0.4
C+
D+0.5
DFM Research
●
3
6.5
+0.8
+1.1
+0.4
C+
D+0.6
MSR Group
3
3.5
-2.3
-2.9
+0.4
C+
D+0.3
Polling Company/Global Strategy Group (Hotline Bullseye)
●
3
4.6
+1.0
+2.1
+0.5
C+
R+0.4
RAND (American Life Panel)
3
1.2
-1.7
-2.5
+0.5
C+
R+0.0
Missouri State University
3
4.4
-1.9
-2.0
+0.5
C+
D+0.4
University Massachusetts Lowell
●
3
7.1
+2.7
+2.8
+0.5
C+
R+0.1
University Wisconsin—Milwaukee
3
5.3
-1.1
-1.8
+0.5
C+
R+0.5
Braun Research
●
3
9.1
+3.7
+2.9
+0.5
C+
D+0.8
Personal Marketing Research
3
6.2
-2.1
-1.8
+0.5
C+
Ivan Moore Research
●
3
9.6
+4.1
+3.2
+0.6
C
D+0.9
Manhattanville College
3
6.5
+0.1
-1.0
+0.6
C
R+0.5
Middle Tennessee State University
3
6.7
0.0
-0.9
+0.6
C
R+0.3
CVOTER International
3
2.9
-0.2
-0.3
+0.7
C
R+0.3
McCulloch Research & Polling
3
4.9
+1.0
+0.4
+0.7
C
R+0.3
University of Iowa
●
3
15.9
+9.0
+5.1
+0.7
C
R+0.2
Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence
3
4.7
-0.6
+0.5
+0.8
C-
D+0.3
Becker Institute
3
7.6
+1.5
+0.7
+0.8
C-
D+0.7
Illinois Wesleyan University
3
8.2
+2.3
+0.8
+0.8
C-
R+0.7
Midwest Survey and Research
3
7.3
+1.5
+0.8
+0.8
C-
R+0.1
Decision Forecasting
3
8.1
+3.6
+0.9
+0.8
C-
R+0.1
Maine People’s Resource Center
3
7.4
+2.4
+1.0
+0.8
C-
R+0.4
Lycoming College
3
7.3
+1.4
+1.3
+0.8
C-
D+0.7
PSI
3
12.5
+5.1
+2.9
+1.0
C-
R+0.1
Momentum Analysis
3
13.7
+7.7
+6.8
+1.3
D
D+0.5
Data West Polling
3
14.6
+8.7
+6.8
+1.3
D
D+1.3
RBI Strategies & Research
●
2
0.7
-4.6
-6.3
-0.1
B
R+0.0
Stockton College
●
2
1.0
-4.1
-4.7
0.0
B
R+0.1
University of Arkansas
●
2
1.4
-3.9
-4.5
0.0
B-
D+0.1
Indiana University
●
2
0.9
-5.0
-4.5
0.0
B-
D+0.1
High Point University
●
2
0.9
-3.2
-4.5
0.0
B-
D+0.0
Strategies 360
●
2
2.4
-3.0
-4.0
0.0
B-
R+0.2
Keating Research, Inc.
●
2
1.9
-2.0
-3.7
+0.1
B-
R+0.1
GBA Strategies
●
2
3.7
-2.6
-3.5
+0.1
B-
R+0.2
Tulchin Research
●
2
3.5
-1.5
-3.0
+0.1
B-
R+0.2
Dartmouth College
●
2
9.0
+1.2
-0.3
+0.3
C+
University of Texas, online
2
0.5
-4.8
-6.9
+0.3
C+
D+0.0
Belden Russonello & Stewart
●
2
4.7
-0.2
0.0
+0.3
C+
D+0.2
M4 Strategies
2
3.1
-0.8
-6.6
+0.3
C+
R+0.2
Christopher Newport University
●
2
7.1
+1.8
+1.2
+0.4
C+
D+0.4
University of North Florida
●
2
5.1
-0.1
+1.3
+0.4
C+
D+0.3
Frederick Polls
2
2.4
-4.0
-5.4
+0.4
C+
R+0.0
Ayres, McHenry & Associates
●
2
7.0
+1.7
+2.4
+0.4
C+
R+0.4
Louis Harris & Associates
2
0.9
-3.9
-4.3
+0.4
C+
D+0.1
Emerson College
2
0.4
-4.2
-3.9
+0.5
C+
R+0.0
Commonwealth Foundation
2
4.1
-1.0
-3.2
+0.5
C+
R+0.3
Harper Polling
2
1.0
-4.0
-3.1
+0.5
C+
D+0.1
Baselice & Associates, Inc.
●
2
10.0
+4.1
+3.8
+0.5
C+
D+0.2
Market Research Insight
2
2.4
-2.1
-2.9
+0.5
C+
R+0.0
Hellenthal & Associates
●
2
9.3
+3.2
+4.2
+0.6
C
D+0.3
Political Marketing International, Inc./Red Racing Horses
2
4.5
-1.0
-2.5
+0.6
C
D+0.3
Forward Strategies
2
1.3
-3.4
-2.4
+0.6
C
D+0.1
University of Texas, telephone
2
1.9
-3.2
-2.2
+0.6
C
D+0.1
Kiley & Company
2
5.1
-0.6
-1.8
+0.6
C
D+0.2
Texas Credit Union League
2
7.0
-2.0
-1.0
+0.7
C
Gordon S. Black Corp.
2
6.3
+1.1
-0.8
+0.7
C
R+0.4
Rice University
2
5.9
+0.7
-0.4
+0.7
C
D+0.4
West Virginia Research Center
2
6.5
+1.3
+0.9
+0.8
C-
D+0.4
Opinion Consultants
2
6.5
+1.3
+1.2
+0.8
C-
R+0.4
Independent Market Research
2
5.7
+0.4
+1.3
+0.8
C-
D+0.3
CrossTarget
2
7.7
+3.3
+1.5
+0.8
C-
R+0.5
TMR Research
2
7.8
+2.4
+1.9
+0.8
C-
D+0.5
Zata3
2
10.2
+4.3
+2.6
+0.9
C-
R+0.2
Bannon Communications
2
10.4
+4.1
+3.6
+0.9
C-
D+0.6
Abacus Associates
2
12.1
+6.1
+4.7
+1.0
C-
R+0.0
Schapiro Group
2
20.0
+11.8
+5.1
+1.0
C-
University of Alabama
2
12.0
+7.1
+7.1
+1.2
D+
R+0.8
Ohio University
2
8.8
+4.1
+7.4
+1.2
D+
D+0.5
Loyola University (New Orleans)
2
12.1
+7.3
+8.3
+1.2
D+
D+0.8
WCIA-TV
2
18.3
+11.9
+8.8
+1.3
D
R+1.1
Dane & Associates
2
21.2
+16.6
+13.2
+1.5
D
R+1.3
Massie & Associates
2
23.9
+17.6
+15.1
+1.7
D-
R+1.5
Castleton State College
●
●
1
5.8
-3.8
-3.2
-0.2
B
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
●
1
0.1
-6.3
-5.3
+0.1
B-
R+0.0
Clarity Campaign Labs
●
1
0.0
-5.2
-5.3
+0.1
B-
R+0.0
QEV Analytics
●
1
7.3
+2.3
-2.6
+0.2
B-
Hampton University
●
1
3.5
-1.6
-1.9
+0.2
B-
D+0.1
Old Dominion University
●
1
4.5
-1.0
-1.3
+0.3
C+
D+0.1
University Nevada, Las Vegas
●
1
9.0
+1.1
+1.1
+0.3
C+
Vanderbilt University
●
1
8.9
+0.9
+1.3
+0.3
C+
University of Georgia
●
1
9.8
+3.8
+1.7
+0.4
C+
R+0.3
Val Smith
●
1
8.5
+2.6
+1.8
+0.4
C+
R+0.3
Iowa State University
●
1
13.1
+3.9
+2.0
+0.4
C+
Feldman Group
●
1
10.8
+5.2
+4.1
+0.4
C+
D+0.3
Inside Michigan Politics
●
1
13.2
+5.3
+5.5
+0.5
C+
Florida International University/Univision
1
1.8
-4.5
-6.9
+0.5
C+
D+0.1
Lauer Johnson Research
●
1
13.8
+8.1
+7.2
+0.5
C+
D+0.4
University of Tennessee
1
2.7
-1.8
-5.6
+0.5
C+
R+0.1
Market Strategies International
1
1.1
-4.5
-5.3
+0.6
C
R+0.0
RMS Research
1
0.9
-5.3
-5.2
+0.6
C
R+0.0
Canisius College
1
0.1
-8.3
-5.1
+0.6
C
Dynamic Marketing, Inc.
1
3.0
-3.1
-5.1
+0.6
C
D+0.1
Lauer Lalley Victoria, Inc.
1
1.7
-4.5
-4.2
+0.6
C
R+0.1
Cranford & Associates
1
2.5
-3.1
-4.0
+0.6
C
D+0.1
Cooper & Secrest
1
2.6
-3.5
-3.6
+0.6
C
R+0.1
Winston Group
1
6.3
0.0
-3.6
+0.6
C
D+0.2
Wood Communications Group
1
0.8
-4.6
-3.4
+0.6
C
D+0.0
BIGresearch
1
2.0
-2.2
-3.4
+0.6
C
Vox Populi Communications
1
3.5
-4.0
-3.4
+0.6
C
Central Surveys, Inc.
1
1.7
-2.9
-3.1
+0.6
C
D+0.1
University of North Carolina
1
1.6
-3.5
-2.8
+0.6
C
D+0.1
Aspen Media & Market Research
1
3.5
-2.3
-2.6
+0.6
C
R+0.1
Multi Quest International Inc
1
1.9
-2.5
-2.5
+0.6
C
D+0.1
StPetePolls.org
1
1.9
-3.1
-2.5
+0.6
C
D+0.1
Rivercity Polling
1
6.7
+0.1
-2.3
+0.7
C
R+0.2
Red Sea Communications
1
4.4
-1.9
-2.2
+0.7
C
R+0.1
New Mexico State University
1
6.8
-2.3
-2.2
+0.7
C
Diversified Research Inc
1
5.0
-1.7
-2.0
+0.7
C
R+0.2
Neighborhood Research Corporation
1
3.4
-2.2
-1.5
+0.7
C
R+0.1
Iona College
1
4.4
-1.1
-1.5
+0.7
C
D+0.1
Forman Center
1
2.6
-3.0
-1.4
+0.7
C
D+0.1
Analytical Group
1
4.0
-1.4
-1.4
+0.7
C
D+0.1
War Room Logistics
1
4.5
-2.1
-1.2
+0.7
C
Ohio State University
1
3.7
-0.9
-1.1
+0.7
C
R+0.1
Wick Communications
1
2.8
-3.0
-0.8
+0.7
C
D+0.1
Market Trends Pacific
1
4.6
-1.1
-0.6
+0.7
C
D+0.1
Schoen Consulting
1
2.3
-2.6
-0.5
+0.7
C
R+0.1
NRECA Market Research
1
6.3
+0.6
0.0
+0.7
C
D+0.2
ASA Marketing Group
1
5.5
+0.7
+0.1
+0.7
C
D+0.2
Strategic Services
1
5.5
-0.2
+0.1
+0.7
C
D+0.2
University of Miami (Florida Voter)
1
6.9
+1.4
+0.3
+0.7
C
D+0.2
Cromer Group
1
3.9
-1.8
+0.3
+0.7
C
R+0.1
Harvard University
1
6.9
+1.1
+0.4
+0.7
C
D+0.2
University of South Florida
1
3.9
-1.2
+0.8
+0.8
C-
R+0.1
Rossman Group
1
4.2
-1.9
+0.8
+0.8
C-
D+0.1
Hoffman Research Group
1
7.1
+3.0
+1.0
+0.8
C-
R+0.2
Victoria Research & Consulting
1
8.0
+2.0
+1.2
+0.8
C-
D+0.3
Polling Company
1
6.0
+1.2
+1.5
+0.8
C-
R+0.2
TeleResearch Corporation
1
8.6
+1.2
+2.6
+0.8
C-
Ron Lester and Associates
1
18.9
+11.5
+2.7
+0.8
C-
Southern Opinion Research
1
9.4
+3.7
+3.0
+0.8
C-
D+0.3
Great Lakes Strategies Group
1
7.6
+2.8
+3.1
+0.8
C-
R+0.2
A&A Research
1
10.1
+4.0
+3.7
+0.8
C-
R+0.3
California State University, Bakersfield
1
9.9
+3.8
+3.7
+0.8
C-
R+0.3
Marketing Research Institute
1
7.4
+2.0
+3.8
+0.8
C-
R+0.2
New Frontier Strategy
1
21.6
+14.1
+4.3
+0.9
C-
SMS Research & Marketing Services, Inc.
1
9.8
+5.5
+4.9
+0.9
C-
R+0.3
Glover Park Group
1
11.4
+4.9
+4.9
+0.9
C-
R+0.4
Basswood Research
1
13.0
+6.3
+5.0
+0.9
C-
R+0.4
Cherry Communications
1
14.5
+6.6
+5.3
+0.9
C-
University of Illinois at Chicago
1
14.1
+8.3
+5.5
+0.9
C-
R+0.5
Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates
1
13.7
+7.0
+5.7
+0.9
C-
R+0.4
MarketAide Services, Inc.
1
11.2
+4.9
+5.9
+0.9
C-
D+0.4
Tulsa Surveys
1
11.9
+6.5
+6.1
+0.9
C-
R+0.4
Dixie Strategies
1
14.5
+7.9
+6.2
+0.9
C-
GCR & Associates
1
18.3
+9.9
+6.7
+0.9
C-
Anderson Group
1
10.9
+6.5
+6.8
+0.9
C-
R+0.4
Jeffrey Stonecash
1
17.3
+12.3
+10.7
+1.1
D+
R+0.6
Rainmaker Media Group
1
12.7
+8.1
+11.1
+1.1
D+
D+0.4
Neighbor
1
17.1
+11.7
+12.7
+1.1
D+
R+0.6
JMC Enterprises of Louisiana
1
22.9
+17.2
+14.7
+1.2
D+
R+0.7
Riggs Research Services
1
33.7
+28.4
+24.8
+1.5
D
D+1.1
Pollster
The organization that conducted the poll (rather than the organization that paid for or sponsored it).
Calls cellphones
● (Yes) indicates the polling firm usually or always places calls to cellphones — in addition to landlines — as of Aug. 29, 2014. Text messages do not count.
◐ (Sometimes) indicates that the pollster sometimes places calls to cellphones and sometimes does not.
We assume a polling firm has not begun to include cellphones in its samples until we have evidence to the contrary. Pollsters that have routinely begun to include cellphones in their samples but are listed without a ● should contact FiveThirtyEight.
NCPP/AAPOR/Roper
● (Yes) indicates that the polling firm was a member of the National Council of Public Polls (NCPP), a signatory to the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative, or a contributor to the Roper Center data archive as of Aug. 29, 2014.
Polls analyzed
The number of polls conducted in the final three weeks of House, Senate, gubernatorial and presidential general election campaigns since 1998, and the last three weeks of presidential primaries and caucuses since 2000.
Simple average error
A polling firm’s average error, calculated as the difference between the polled result and the actual result for the margin separating the top two finishers in the race.
Simple +/-
A polling firm’s average error as compared with other polls of the same types of elections, also controlling for a poll’s sample size and the number of days between the poll and the election. Negative scores are favorable and indicate above-average performance.
Advanced +/-
How a pollster’s average error has compared to other polling firms surveying the same races, also accounting for the type of election polled, the number of days until the election, the poll’s sample size and the number of other pollsters surveying the same race. Negative scores are favorable and indicate above-average quality.
Predictive +/-
A projection of how accurate the poll will be in future elections relative to other polls, based on a combination of a pollster’s historical performance, the number of polls it has in the database, and our proxies for methodological quality. Negative scores are favorable and indicate above-average quality.
538 grade
A letter grade from A+ to F that reflects a pollster’s Predictive Plus-Minus score. Firms banned by FiveThirtyEight are automatically given a grade of F.
Banned by 538
✖ indicates that the polling firm is not used in FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting models because we are concerned that it has faked some polling results or engaged in other gross ethical misconduct.
Mean-reverted bias
A pollster’s historical average statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates, reverted to a mean of zero based on the number of polls in the database.
By Ritchie King, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver. Report any issues.
Filed under 2014 Midterms, Polling

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