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SINCE the attacks in Cologne several commentators have argued that Europe has a “man problem”. Writing in Politico Magazine, Valerie Hudson, a political scientist, argued that “the sex ratios among migrants are so one-sided...that they could radically change the gender balance in European countries in certain age cohorts”—especially young ones. Is this the case?

More young men than young women have indeed been coming to Europe. Of the 1.2m asylum applicants in the last 12 months of available data, 73% were men, up from 66% in 2012. Those men skew increasingly young: according to Eurostat, the proportion of male asylum claimants who were 18- to 34-year-olds was 40% in October 2015 (the latest available data), up from 35% in 2012. Males between 14 and 17 years old accounted for 11% of all asylum-seekers, up from 5% in 2012.

The numbers, however, differ by nationality. Around 60% of all male asylum-seekers from Algeria and Morocco were 18- to 34-year-olds. By contrast just 48% of the Iraqis, 38% of the Syrians and 31% of the Afghans fell into this age group. Proportions of young males also differ by host country (see chart). Sweden took three asylum-seekers for every 1,000 inhabitants in the 12 months to September 2015. That is the highest ratio in Europe. Alongside this, it also has more young male asylum-seekers: in the past 12 months 17% were 14- to 17-year-olds, compared with only 6% in Germany.

Seeking safety: A flow diagram of asylum applications and rejections

This will alter the sex ratio for some age groups in Sweden. As Ms Hudson points out, the teenage population will become more male: currently there are 106 male 14- to 17-year-olds for every 100 women. If all asylum applications are granted, this will change to 116 men to 100 women, while for those aged between 18 and 34 the male-to-female ratio will go from 105:100 to 107:100. This is worrisome. Skewed sex ratios would mean lots of sexually frustrated young men, which is a recipe for trouble.

But the example of Sweden does not reflect what will happen across the whole of Europe. (Ms Hudson also conflates asylum applications with asylum granted. Not all of the 20,000 16- to 17-year-olds she says entered Sweden in 2015 will receive full refugee status; on current trends, around 17,000 will.) The countries that will be most affected are small, with populations under 10m. Sweden, Hungary, Austria and Norway would see the biggest sex-ratio changes (and only if they accepted all the asylum-seekers who applied). Germany has less to worry about. If it accepted all the young males who sought asylum in the year to October 2015, its sex ratios would go from 106:100 to 107:100 for 14- to 17-year-olds and from 105:100 to 106:100 for 18- to 34-year-olds. Europe does not have a man problem. Sweden may have.