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europe

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all 151 comments-
[–]AustriaSukrim 119 points120 points121 points  (12 children)
Does it take into account the water wars of the 2040s and the rise of the penguin overlords in 2054?
[–]European/British CitizenLimitlessLTD 9 points10 points11 points  (4 children)
It might do, how many penguin years are in a human year?
[–]Raleigh NCLampjaw 3 points4 points5 points  (3 children)
About 4.
[–]Kingdom of EnglandG96Saber 6 points7 points8 points  (2 children)
That's flippin' ridiculous.
[–]FranceGrutte_Alk 1 point2 points3 points  (1 child)
Chill a little with the shitty puns.
[–]EnglandImperito [score hidden]  (0 children)
That pun didn't fly with me
[–]Romaniaceballos 26 points27 points28 points  (0 children)
I, for one, welcome out new penguin overlords.
[–]/r/theNetherlandsTonyQuark [score hidden]  (2 children)
water wars of the 2040s
Well, I know who's going to win that! Oh, you mean the war for water, not against?
[–]Galiciawcctnoam [score hidden]  (1 child)
Let's be honest here: you've had a good run in your war, and you've kept the upper hand for a while now, but deep inside you know water is just bidding its time.
Like thermodynamics, there's no victory or draw possible, only defeat.
[–]/r/theNetherlandsTonyQuark [score hidden]  (0 children)
Psh, our dikes can withstand a 1 in 10,000 years storm. The sea is our bitch.
[–]Slovakia, not SloveniaNeutraCitizen 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
this doesnt take into account anything, it follows current trend . if you take into account anything like war, climate changes or something like that you can literally throw this projection into trash bin
[–]warhead71 [score hidden]  (0 children)
So how would your projection be?
[–]menemenetekelufarsin -1 points0 points1 point  (0 children)
Well since it accounts for no politics and no history in the next thirty years... might as well be that.
[–]HungaryRubci 23 points24 points25 points  (10 children)
Poor pension systems.
[–]PortugalGabensInventory 14 points15 points16 points  (5 children)
I'm not even counting on ever receiving mine.
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa 12 points13 points14 points  (3 children)
Don't be a pessimist. You'll get your pension by the time you're 80. Then you'll have five years to enjoy yourself before your nervous system is harvested for use in the robotics industry.
[–]United KingdomEwannnn [score hidden]  (2 children)
You joke, but pension age at least in the UK should have and should be rising far faster than it is. To give an example in 1950 the retirement age for men was 65 but average age of death was 71. Now the retirement age is still 65 but average age of death is 82. That's 11 extra years the state, and by extension working age adults, have to pay for.
Every 6 years at current rates average age of death (median) increases by 2 years, yet the retirement age is only increasing by 1 every 6 years (66 in 2020 and 67 in 2026). This is totally unsustainable.
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa [score hidden]  (0 children)
Luckily the UK hasn't short sightedly sold off potentially profitable nationalized industries for ideological reasons and crass electioneering. So you'll be able to use that to fund pensions.
You know, like how Norway has 900 billion in its pensions based on profits from nationalized oil, or the dutch government makes 100s of millions each year from Dutch rail.
[–]PortugalGabensInventory [score hidden]  (0 children)
Interesting point.
The age of death may rise but what about the difference in quality of life in those later years, are they comparable?
[–]Northern SerbiaSandpaperThoughts [score hidden]  (0 children)
Yeah, me neither. My pension money is stolen long ago.
[–]flamesholder [score hidden]  (2 children)
Contrary to the popular belief the pension system does not require ever increasing population. In fact, an increasing, but increasingly poor population is likely to lead to low pensions. It is better to have fewer, but better payed employees. As the efficiency will improve, and as long as as there is enough competition between companies for employees, their salaries will increase. So, in fact, shrinking population is good because it shifts the labour market in favour of the workers. Seriously, any thinking socialist should be against immigration of unskilled people - they will only burden then society and mess up the market, leading to ideas like lowering salaries. Low salaries mean low tax income. Low tax income means low pensions.
[–]United KingdomEwannnn [score hidden]  (1 child)
Immigration of low skilled labour are only a burden 40 years from now. In 40 years robots will likely be doing everything and we'll all have a basic income. To be honest I'm worried about the dependency ratio here and now, not 40 years from now.
[–]flamesholder [score hidden]  (0 children)
Unemployable immigrants are a burden on the society now - police, social benefits, crime, limitations to our freedoms, yes, they are a burden now.
[–]European Unionrzet [score hidden]  (0 children)
There is no pension for us.. get over it, you will work till you die :/
[–]Bulgariateheroic 7 points8 points9 points  (0 children)
And the worst thing about our median age is that we won't be as high as Italy only because we die too much.
[–]PrOLAND, MasoviaRoxven89 8 points9 points10 points  (6 children)
Fu*k you Portugal if not you we would be first in 2060.....
[–]Portugalandy18cruz 9 points10 points11 points  (0 children)
Undisputed collapsed welfare system 2060 European champion!
Edit: Grammar
[–]European UnionMordiken 5 points6 points7 points  (4 children)
Yes, we definitely need to fuck more.
[–]lonely_hunter20 1 point2 points3 points  (3 children)
Or do something about the young people that are leaving.
[–]United Kingdom0zymandiasss 13 points14 points15 points  (0 children)
Or the old people living.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (1 child)
They're going to other parts of Europe anyway so the map remains the same.
[–]lonely_hunter20 [score hidden]  (0 children)
On Europe, yes. On Portugal, no. The map shows that.
[–]Swedenmosharo 5 points6 points7 points  (4 children)
Interesting! Do you have a slower version or a slideshow if I want to take a closer look? From where did you get the data?
[–]SwedenNaked-Viking 9 points10 points11 points  (1 child)
Press this little hand and then move your cursor across the gif.
[–]Swedenmosharo 4 points5 points6 points  (0 children)
Thank you for this.
[–]FSMPBUH[S] 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
The data is calculated from the UN World Population Prospects projections, available here http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
You should be able to pause and manually move at gfycat, which is what's linked
[–]Swedenmosharo 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
Ah, okay, thanks.
[–]European UnionRotterdam_ 9 points10 points11 points  (5 children)
On the long term, this will be a way bigger problem than the current refugee crisis. If you think the welfare state is going to have problems in 10 years because of the refugee crisis, wait until in about 50 years the pension population is almost as big as the working population. We simply won't be able to sustain that....
[–]Netherlands & Croatiatrollxic 3 points4 points5 points  (1 child)
This is the current situation in Croatia (due to poor employment); but we are.. Sustained?
[–]Northern SerbiaSandpaperThoughts [score hidden]  (0 children)
If you manage to convince people they should be happy because at least they're not starving, everything is sustainable.
[–]The NetherlandsPhalanx300 [score hidden]  (2 children)
We will have to. Demographic experts have concluded that it is inevitable. Eventually all countries will have this and population will have reached its limit on earth. Adding new people does not prevent this, rather it will move that date back but it will still happen.
[–]European UnionRotterdam_ [score hidden]  (1 child)
I never said adding new people to our country (if that is what you mean by adding people) would end this. I'm just saying it'll be a bigger issue.
[–]The NetherlandsPhalanx300 [score hidden]  (0 children)
Just stating it considering most people see it as a solution for said problem.
[–]European/British CitizenLimitlessLTD 12 points13 points14 points  (16 children)
Does anyone know what factors mean that Italy will hit a median age of 50 first in Europe? Do they have a lower birth rate than Germany?
[–]Sloveniaperen3 13 points14 points15 points  (10 children)
Yes.
[–]50% Sardinia 50% PiedmontElvishCopter 4 points5 points6 points  (3 children)
As of 2015 Germany had a lower birthrate.
If you look at the animation it seems that around 2025 Germany will have some kind of increase in the birthrate.
[–]Sloveniaperen3 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
Data for 2015 are estimates. Anyway I don't know. If you check last few years, theres a slight trend upwards in germany's fertility and birthrates, while italy's is slightly downward or stagnating.
In any case, these projections always turn out to be off the mark.
[–]Panzie-Kraut [score hidden]  (0 children)
My guess is Germany has larger net immigration
[–]Indiaperseus0807 1 point2 points3 points  (5 children)
That's interesting, why is this the case? I would have thought that the Catholic influence (not that there isn't Catholicism in Germany, but more) would have encouraged making babies.
[–]Sloveniaperen3 2 points3 points4 points  (3 children)
Noone knows. Catholic influences doesn't help much. Poland, for example, has one very low birth rate but is very catholic. UK, France and Sweden are examples of high birth rates in the EU.
Part of it is, i think how the economy is doing and hence how safe people feel with their jobs and regard the security of the future. Many european countries saw upward trends in birth rates prior to the crisis and then downward or stagnating after that.
[–]lltr2 [score hidden]  (1 child)
Poland, for example, has one very low birth rate but is very >catholic. UK, France and Sweden are examples of high birth rates >in the EU.
People who are 20-30 years much more often prefer to think for themselves and church isn't part of their lives exept for weddings etc.
[–]flamesholder [score hidden]  (0 children)
I would say that the problem in Poland is low salaries, long working hours, and ever temporary employment. Besides, on a general level, the agriculture can feed only a finite amount of people. There are already too many people in Europe and we should be thankful that people are responsible and are not procreating like rabbits.
[–]European Unionkesselvon [score hidden]  (0 children)
UK, France and Sweden are examples of high birth rates in the EU
Migration.
[–]Flandersmodomario [score hidden]  (0 children)
People don't make babies because the pope/priest tells them to really.
Maybe some fundies will believe what they have/had to say about condoms but I'd say those are very rare.
[–]lonely_hunter20 2 points3 points4 points  (2 children)
It's because the priest from Vatican don't have kids. /s
[–]FranceGrutte_Alk [score hidden]  (1 child)
They do have kids, one a day on average.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
Casuals. I'd tell them to get on my level but in this instance I think I'll pass.
[–]Italyninfo 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
Higher life expectation in the EU.
[–]Republic of FlandersRomebeach 3 points4 points5 points  (3 children)
Did anyone notice how quickly Northern Africa ages? The gap between them and us will be insignificant by 2060, that's mental!
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
No/few jobs. They emigrate or they stay at home and don't have kids.
[–]Dumbo is the cutest elephantmyrpou [score hidden]  (0 children)
Sweden only goes up 6 years.
[–]Job Stealing GuiriLupineChemist [score hidden]  (0 children)
Birth rates there have fallen dramatically. A lot of it is because of education of women. Despite alarmism and a lot of extremism right now, I'm actually fairly optimistic about the long term prospects of the Arab world.
[–]Buxfitz 2 points3 points4 points  (1 child)
Interesting how Bosnia & Herzegovina goes from joint 2nd youngest to joint oldest.
[–]getinthezone [score hidden]  (0 children)
People are mass leaving it, and once it joins the EU I don't think many young people will be there.
[–]Sunovman 5 points6 points7 points  (6 children)
Please have more kids guys? My grand-grandmother had 14 kids, my grandmother had 4, my parents had 2, I have 1.
Making kids is fun, we could go back to 4 I guess.
[–]European Union23PowerZ 2 points3 points4 points  (1 child)
How many of your great grandmother's children grew up to adulthood?
[–]Sunovman [score hidden]  (0 children)
It was a WWII in Poland so I don't know, but my grandmother always tell me stories about them, so I guess most of her sisters and younger brothers grew up, only older brothers died on the front.
[–]Northern SerbiaSandpaperThoughts [score hidden]  (0 children)
Please have more kids guys?
It kinda gets more and more difficult to find girls that want kids, and if they do, they want no more than 1.
[–]lonely_hunter20 [score hidden]  (0 children)
If they are fun, you can have 14 too.
[–]NaQu [score hidden]  (1 child)
That's just a horrible way to solve this. The world is already experiencing overpopulation.. And within the next few centuries we're not even going to have enough, well, anything to supply the current population.
We need fewer people to be born on this planet, and we need our old people to be able to work for longer.
[–]Sunovman [score hidden]  (0 children)
Yeah, but it is not Europe to be blamed. You want to sell this pitch go to India or try doing something about Africa.
[–]IrelandM78 5 points6 points7 points  (28 children)
Everyone is dead set against migrants coming into Europe, yet from the looks of that gif we're going to need a steady stream of them to help pay for everyone's pensions.
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa 7 points8 points9 points  (5 children)
Robot vacuum, robot lawnmower, robot dishwasher, robot window cleaner, robot cars, robot taxis, robot trucks, robot drones, ...
It is estimated that in some sectors up to 50% of current jobs will simply no longer exist in 50 years.
It's already happening. Logistics is a huge sector, I worked at a company where they replaced 100 people with 2 people and robots to package, label, sort and place shipments in the warehouse. Infinitely better service for customers - fast, accurate, less damage. Much cheaper.
That's the sad thing about these migrants. They think that they'll be able to get a good job here. Soon they won't even be able to become a toilet cleaner for a living.
[–]PortugalTalkingHawk [score hidden]  (1 child)
That's why we need to revamp the way our system works. As it is, no country could sustain 50% of unemployment. We either change the way our society works to make sure everyone lives life with dignity, or we let them starve in the streets and they will riot.
This isn't really an immigrant problem. It's just a bigger problem if we let a lot of immigrants in, but it's a big enough problem for the amount of peope we already have.
[–]European Unionrok182 [score hidden]  (0 children)
Exactly. Automation will increase productivity, we'll have more resources and time to spend looking after the quality of life. Ofc much more progressive taxation system will be required, but in Europe that shouldn't be a problem, as most of us are already lefty. If we reach this robocop level of automation, then the working class won't have to work anymore. In order to keep themselves occupied they can do extreme sports for example or play video games.
[–]IrelandM78 [score hidden]  (0 children)
That's a very good point, but it's going to hit us very hard too, not everyone is cut out for University, and millions of unskilled workers are going to find themselves surplus to requirement.
[–]3rd Spanish Republicjape13 [score hidden]  (1 child)
It is estimated that in some sectors up to 50% of current jobs will simply no longer exist in 50 years.
And a lot of even more menial and artificial jobs will have been "invented" to cover for these.
Like in the previous century. Today, it can already be said that more than 50% of population works, directly or indirectly, for the entertainment sector...
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa [score hidden]  (0 children)
After the invention of the car, most horses went to work at the glue factory.
[–]Earthrazorts 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
if you looked at pension age you would know very few of us will live to enjoy them long enough
[–]European Unionkesselvon [score hidden]  (0 children)
Population replacement isn't a solution to this problem
[–]The NetherlandsPhalanx300 [score hidden]  (0 children)
Nope. This development is inevitable long term. See the studies of Hans Rosling for more information. (Here)
So adding new migrants to try and combat this will be no solution to the underlying problem.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (18 children)
What's the point if European civilisation collapses? Personally I'd rather see the whole continent turn into a wasteland than North Africa.
[–]AMASlyRatchet [score hidden]  (1 child)
Yeah, just like when Enoch Powell predicted the collapse of British civilisation (or, well "rivers of blood") because of Indian and African immigration to the UK in the 60s. They don't seem to have made us collapse yet. In the mean while, I'm enjoying all the lovely curry
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
Yes, those things are exactly the same. For fucks sake.
Firstly, Indians are considered "model immigrants", like the Chinese. Africans less so.
That said, we're not talking about a minority group here co-existing along the majority with similar fertility rates after a couple of generations.
The population of Europe is aging. Once a population goes below replacement level, it will continue to contract indefinitely unless there's a boon or the factors that led to this low fertility in the first place are addressed. So we're not talking about the people that will live alongside us as a minority of the population, but those that will replace us when we're gone.
It seems to me that people like you fundamentally fail to understand how population growth works. Many in this thread already have made posts that makes it obvious they seem to be believe that after our population starts to collapse, it will magically stabilise at some desirable, environmentally conscious and "sustainable level. That's not how it works
[–]IrelandM78 [score hidden]  (15 children)
You're being melodramatic, European civilisation is not going to collapse, if anything it will be enhanced by the diversity.
[–]lewrongopinion [score hidden]  (5 children)
"Enhanced" - is that codeword for "Islamicized"?
[–]IrelandM78 [score hidden]  (4 children)
No not at all, Europe has over 500 million people, a few million migrants won't change much.
[–]lewrongopinion [score hidden]  (0 children)
Keep dreaming!!
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (2 children)
Says he, without irony, in a thread about Europe's incoming population collapse.
[–]IrelandM78 [score hidden]  (1 child)
There's nothing ironic about what I said, the demographics are changing and the population is projected to fall slightly but it will reach an equilibrium. The sky isn't going to fall just yet so you can relax a little.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
[...] the demographics are changing and the population is projected to fall slightly but it will reach an equilibrium.
Why?
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (8 children)
That's sarcasm right?
[...] if anything it will be enhanced by the diversity.
Can you give some specific examples about how we'd be enhanced by this diversity? Something beyond the usual asinine "oh their food is nice" would be good.
If you're referring to cultures from other developed countries, yes it might have a positive effect even as it lowers social cohesion, but they won't be the ones from where our immigrants come from.
Diverse implies existence along a spectrum—unless you believe all cultures are of equal value—then for optimum maximum diversity you need to integrate cultures from every region of that spectrum. That's a fucking dumb idea.
As a gay dude, I for one would prefer not to be "enhanced" by the diversity of being stoned to death or thrown off a building. Just saying.
[–]IrelandM78 [score hidden]  (7 children)
Well the migrants will be quite different obviously, but their children and their children's children will be European. It's been happening since the year dot, like it or not humanity is one big melting pot.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (5 children)
Well the migrants will be quite different obviously, but their children and their children's children will be European.
Well, they will be born in Europe. So technically they will be European. But will they hold European values?
[–]IrelandM78 [score hidden]  (4 children)
Well put it this way, there's something that we're doing wrong in Europe that the Americans are doing right, over there the new migrants identify as Americans yet over here they don't identify as European, I'm not sure what the reason for this is, but we are going to have problems until we solve it.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
Well put it this way, there's something that we're doing wrong in Europe that the Americans are doing right [...]
I was born in Cuba, grew up in the states and now consider myself European. I'm an immigrant twice over. I haven't noticed anything inherently different about American culture in respect to immigrants vs. Spanish culture.
Have you considered that there difference is less about what you're doing than the kind of people that are coming to your country?
[–]Sloveniaxaerc [score hidden]  (0 children)
there's something that we're doing wrong in Europe that the Americans are doing right
Well, they are not taking in hordes of uneducated people from Africa and the middle east.
[–]UlsterUltach [score hidden]  (1 child)
The United States started as a colony. It doesn't have a native people (as a state, obviously Native Americans are native to the area). You can't be ethnically American.
This is not a problem that needs to be solved. It's not a problem to begin with. An Irish-speaking Catholic called Seán Ó Flaibhertach who is an Irish citizen from birth, has lived in Ireland all his life and whose ancestors have lived in Ireland for thousands of years is always going to be more Irish than an Arabic-speaking Muslim called Ahmed Haddad who arrived in Ireland at the age of 30 off the plane from Lebanon and applied for Irish citizenship. Legally they might be both Irish but there's no question as to which of them would be more comfortable identifying as Irish. This isn't a problem, it's just how people work in terms of identity.
Europe isn't America, and it's never going to be America. It doesn't have to be.
[–]IrelandM78 [score hidden]  (0 children)
What I'm saying is that both are receiving migrants, one has been very successful with integrating them into society, the other is having issues.
[–]flamesholder [score hidden]  (0 children)
Our experience with immigrants from the Middle East proves the contrary. The second generation tends to radicalize because we reject their ideas of society. The parents and religious leaders tend to have a tight control over the children. Uneducated parents discourage children from school which hampers there integration and participation in the job market.
[–]Earthrazorts 12 points13 points14 points  (7 children)
does it take into account million refugees in germany?
[–]50% Sardinia 50% PiedmontElvishCopter 27 points28 points29 points  (1 child)
There are already 81 millions German citizens. Migration is probably even less then the error tolerance of that projection.
[–]Europehumanlikecorvus 7 points8 points9 points  (0 children)
The error tolerance of such projections is pretty extreme, e.g. we had alone this year a 5% change (more births) which nobody expected, and many of the future parents accounted into these stats, are just born now...
Also birth rate is also not a good measure - a better one is the total fertility rate - relating to how many kids a women will have on average in her fertile life-span. The current birth rate is also lowered, by more parents deciding to have kids later, which is very much the case in Germany, and is lowering the growth to a degree less than just looking at the birth rate, may make it seem.
For the immigration - Germany had a net immigration of ~400,000 over the last 65 years (that's excluding the World War displaced and refugees), more than 25 million immigrants. That's a very important factor. But the current refugee inflow is not, yes. So far this is, depending on how many you think will stay, just a year with maybe twice or at most triple the immigration of an average year.
[–]tcostart 1 point2 points3 points  (2 children)
The current wave of refugees will be over 50 years old by 2060.
[–]redCashion 2 points3 points4 points  (1 child)
Refugees are likely to have children at a much higher rate than is common among German natives.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
Only for two generations; after that the fertility rates are indistinguishable.
[–]melolzz 3 points4 points5 points  (1 child)
Germanys median age is the second highest of the world (See here sort by Rank).
Even with the higher fertility rate of immigrants and refugees, Germany is heading towards a big problem in the future. The population is getting older and the burden on the social, medical and economical system is going to be get heavier by every year.
[–]Europehumanlikecorvus 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
The productivity is also going up and the costs for young people / kids decline. So it is not that simple. Some economists think it is not a (big) problem at all.
It is very difficult to get clear data of how big the problem will be, but you should be very suspicious about any data supporting huge problems, because those are in the interest of the financial sector, in particular insurances, which pushed and abused this already to weaken our pensions system in Germany pretty much a decade ago. Back then some minority economists already calculated, that with the same numbers (the numbers always quoted were the worst case scenario...) and everything taken into account, the standard of living and the inflation corrected income for workers could still rise despite the demographical change.
[–]BelgiumTheApatheist 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
Odd, we started out as one of the oldest countries, but we'll become one of the youngest? Perhaps it's the effect of sucking Eastern and Southern Europe dry of educated youth flocking to Brussels.
It would be good if those Arab number start ticking over 30 though, so their population isn't 90% youthful ignorance.
Too bad no one thought of the aesthetic consequences of socialized health care.
[–]Triple spanish flag ;Dlets-start-a-riot 1 point2 points3 points  (3 children)
Any idea why Italy and Iberia are the first ones in get to fifties?
[–]United Kingdomwill_holmes 2 points3 points4 points  (1 child)
I don't know about other countries, but Spain, Portugal and Italy are common places for our pensioners to retire to.
[–]European UnionShalaiyn 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
And have the highest median survival rates.
[–]Italyninfo [score hidden]  (0 children)
We live longer.
[–]LessFapMoreGym 3 points4 points5 points  (4 children)
Why are the less developed countries showing higher numbers?
[–]Italyninfo [score hidden]  (1 child)
TIL Italy and Spain are less developed than eastern Europe.
[–]Franceloulan [score hidden]  (0 children)
And Germany is so underdeveloped.
[–]PortugalTalkingHawk [score hidden]  (0 children)
Ignoring the "less developed" part since I know what you mean... it's caused by young people emmigrating because they have no jobs in their native country. They move elsewhere and they build families, have kids, etc. elsewhere.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
Post-communist collapse. All former soviet countries saw a massive depopulation that is still ongoing after the fall of the Soviet Union—also, Eastern European immigration to the West.
[–]Remember this, every race start from the block,lolmonger 2 points3 points4 points  (8 children)
It's fundamentally because of the sexual revolution: the pill, women in the workforce, the youth for generations being told that marriage and children is the death of freedom and living, etc.
Generational shifts have occurred in terms of how people view marriage, how they view sex, how they view having children, how they view home life vs a career, mostly changing to views which are fertility negative.
All that will happen is less educated demographics will doubly replace the native ones: as their baby boom (era, not numbers) populations start dying off in the next 20 years, and the 20yr old cohort then is primarily made up of those demographics, not the native educated one's children.
In the US, it'll mean that whites will no longer be a majority by 2040, and people like me and Hispanics will combine to form the demographic majority.
For Germany, considering how few people have children and how few children they have, and how old the cohort of ethnic Germans is now, I think the demographic shift will be even more pronounced.
It is something I fear will lead to a lot of cultural and social discord.
[–]Portugalnot_sucking_it 5 points6 points7 points  (1 child)
All that will happen is less educated demographics will doubly replace the native one
Less educated demographics are not inherently foreigners
populations start dying off in the next 20 years, and the 20yr old cohort then is primarily made up of those demographics, not the native educated one's children.
Which shouldn't be a problem if there's a good education system to back up social mobility.
[–]Remember this, every race start from the block,lolmonger [score hidden]  (0 children)
Less educated demographics are not inherently foreigners
Nor are foreigners necessarily less educated.
But, of those foreign populations which have been coming in large numbers, often extralegally to Europe and the US, higher education is often not a feature, and this means they are generally socioeconomically encultured still to have many children.
Which shouldn't be a problem if there's a good education system to back up social mobility.
Also if the foreign demographics cease being foreign in any sense but the genomic one.
But it is precisely that which I think will not happen, and along with economic misfit, there will be deep cultural and potentially even legacy linguistic divides. Very unharmonious.
[–]UkraineAken_Bosch [score hidden]  (1 child)
that whites will no longer be a majority by 2040, and people like me and Hispanics will combine to form the demographic majority.
TIL Hispanics are asians
[–]Remember this, every race start from the block,lolmonger [score hidden]  (0 children)
People like me = Asian origin persons.
Our population is growing quite rapidly (though, we also tend to assimilate to a great degree, economically and socially because our immigration was controlled for that ability). Insofar as there is some "we" (I simply identify as American), we don't stand to compromise as large a portion of the population as Hispanics/hispanohablantes/Latinos, but combined with them, and black Americans, for the first time in USA history, whites will cease being the majority around 2043.
I'm of mixed feeling about this, because I think it will come attendant with so much foreign immigration and local enclave dynamic that it means the culture, the social and political norms, of the US which I quite like, will be changed into something else entirely.
Cultural assimilation takes a long time, and if we've so many immigrants that in a single generation even basic demographic numbers shift so completely, how can we be assured our societal integration keeps up?
I want America to stay American.
[–]GermanyNyxisto [score hidden]  (2 children)
I mean you could have summed that up as "ermahgerd non-white people" instead of writing that wall of text. Also people said that stuff during the eugenics boom in the US in in the early 20th century and guess what you are now the sole superpower on this planet and not a failed civilization, funny how that goes right
[–]Remember this, every race start from the block,lolmonger [score hidden]  (1 child)
I mean you could have summed that up as "ermahgerd non-white people"
As a non-white person, no, I couldn't have, because my immigrant parents were always on our ass about being precise and exacting in our speech and writing.
Also people said that stuff during the eugenics boom in the US in in the early 20th century and guess what you are now the sole superpower on this planet and not a failed civilization, funny how that goes right
.....You do realize I am indeed saying that it's pre-1965 immigration policy that we should probably think about returning to, albeit with exceptions for educated, and well off people?
Perhaps instead of trying to sum up what I wrote with "ermahgerd non-white people", you should read a little more carefully what I wrote.
[–]GermanyNyxisto [score hidden]  (0 children)
which pre 1965 immigration policy? The US immigration policy right now is infinitely harsher than it ever was in history. It's a nightmare right now to immigrate to the US.
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
Not really, the former majority will inherit from their rich parents and live in gated communities playing golf. They will be looked after and helped by robots: robot vacuums, robot grass mowers, robot cars, robot drones, robot security and robot cleaners. They will make money from the money they invested in factories and business almost entirely run by robots. Uber, google, amazon, etc.
The less educated majority will fight amongst itself, but behave because they have no job in a highly roboticized economy. No money, no food. So you need to behave or you won't be fed. You need to go through the charade of job searching and behaving, or your monthly allowance will be cut off.
Ten years ago, most people would have thought this comment was funny.
[–]The Netherlands (and Belgium, they just don't know it yet)darian66 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
So when do we get ahead of the curve?
[–]SpainEryemil 0 points1 point2 points  (7 children)
We're looking at a whole continent withering and dying. Fucking depressing.
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa -1 points0 points1 point  (6 children)
The world is overpopulated. We don't live in a society where you need millions of people to grow potatoes anymore.
Better to have a country of 10 million living in absolute comfort enjoying the benefits of ever increasing automation, than a country of 100 million where most are poor, a detriment to the environment and a threat to human survival.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (2 children)
The world is overpopulated.
Overpopulation is a function of how many people a certain region can support at a certain standard of living; by this metric the developed world is the least overpopulated part of Earth.
In the same sense, we've yet to hit peaks of any significant resource. Scarcity is dropping across the entire world, be it water, energy or food.
Better to have a country of 10 million living in absolute comfort enjoying the benefits of ever increasing automation, than a country of 100 million where most are poor, a detriment to the environment and a threat to human survival.
That's a false dichotomy. You can have a large, productive population that, thanks to technology, is not dependeant upon of the environment regardless of its state. What we're seeing here is the opposite of that. The fertility rate required for population replacement is 2.1, anything under that and you'll see contraction and demographic collapse. And once this collapse begins, it's not going to stop at whatever amount of people hippies believe that "Mother Earth" can carry unless the underlying reasons why people are not reproducing are addressed. It's a perfect example of a tragedy of the commons.
At the end of his book Apex, the transhumanist novelist Ramez Naam wrote:
“This is about people power, Dr,” she said. “You told me once this century’s most vital raw material is the human mind, did you not?”
Lakshmi Dabir nodded again.
“Good,” Ayesha Dani said. “Because we seem to have more of those than anyone. Now go unlock them. This will be the Indian Century.”
This is not meant to be a cautionary tale about how the poor, foreign masses in developing countries are going to make us irrelevant. That process is already in motion, we couldn't stop it if we wanted to and I for one don't believe we should; it's a good thing.
What it should bring to mind is the fact that the human brain is a resource and having more of them is a boon, even if the byproduct of producing the handful one minds that will drive technological progress is hundreds of thousands of less productive ones. A large population is a boon in the long term, not only for any specific country but for humanity as a whole.
[–]saljkdsakljsadlkjdsa [score hidden]  (1 child)
At the end of his book Apex, the transhumanist novelist
At the end of this century, according to global scientific consensus, global temperatures will have risen significantly. This is already going to happen, there is next to nothing we can do about it.
There is a not insignificant likelihood that the warming of permafrost will result in the release of enormous amount of methane, causing a cataclysmic feedback loop that it is already too late to stop.
the human brain is a resource
A resource that will become obsolete sooner rather than later. The singularity is approaching, according to transhumanist novelist Stephen Hawking.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
Do you any a point to make that's actually relevant to the discussion?
[–]Northern SerbiaSandpaperThoughts [score hidden]  (0 children)
The world is overpopulated.
Not really. Parts of Africa and Asia might be, but Europe is generally underpopulated, especially eastern Europe.
[–]North Rhine-WestphaliaSensitive_nob [score hidden]  (1 child)
We are not overpopulated and we will never be. Predictions go up to 11 billion until the end of the century and then it will look like this all over the world. I can just recommand Hans Rosling over and over again. Because this is knowledge everyone should get.
[–]hcstrache -1 points0 points1 point  (0 children)
We are fucked.
[–]Czech RepublicOv3rpowered -1 points0 points1 point  (7 children)
Somebody should've thought about compensating for this before deconstructing traditional family model.
[–]Czech RepublicOv3rpowered [score hidden]  (3 children)
What's your explanation?
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (2 children)
Don't have one. If I were to venture one I'd say it has to do with industrialisation.
Back in the day when everyone was a subsistence farmer all you had to do was pop up a dozen kids, half of which would die before making it to adulthood and you'd be guaranteed a safety net and the success of your genetic lineage.
These days, kids are a lot more expensive. If you want them to be successful you have to invest a lot more into them. Look at Chinese sons; for them to get married parents need to buy them a freaking house.
It seems to me that the current shift closely resembles the different forms of parental investment among species. Some animals have lots of offspring, most of which will die, and others invest more resources into fewer offspring which have a higher likelihood of survival into adulthood.
The issue for us is that you only need one child to continue the family line and pensions—or the high comparatively higher wages of a single kid—completely do away with the need for lots of kids to take care of you, while the fertility rate to keep a population from collapsing remains a stubborn 2.1 kids per woman.
Those are my two euro.
[–]Czech RepublicOv3rpowered [score hidden]  (1 child)
That's plausible, thanks. I like the (implied?) link to r/K strategy dichotomy. So in the end I'd say that industrial and post-industrial societies need to support traditional model of families all the more to compensate, otherwise there won't be any post-industrial societies in the future.
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
My solution is for governments to subsidize reproduction at every level; child care, education, direct money transfers, assistance for young adults etc.
Instead of making child rearing prohibitively expensive we should be trying minimize as many of the factors that make people refuse to have kids as we can.
On the other hand, that does lead to single mothers which are horrible for society but then again, not as bad as complete extinction.
I think better protecting the reproductive and parental rights of father wouldn't hurt either. Our societies completely fail dads at every turn.
Trying to force people into getting married and following the traditional model won't work because countries that already follow that model are still not having kids anyway.
[–]3rd Spanish Republicjape13 [score hidden]  (1 child)
That map is extremely useless, since a difference between a 1.4 and a 1.5 fertility rate may already cause a ginormous difference in population metrics. No surprise it turns out all the countries are the same color...
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
Every single blue countries is at below replacement level, as are a few of the green ones. Once you drop below that number the only difference is how fast the population shrink. It's relevant to the overall discussion but not to Ov3powered's comment.
And as an example of my point, France and Libya have the same fertility rate, as do Uzbekistan and Finland.
[–]flamesholder -2 points-1 points0 points  (3 children)
Well, it is not surprising. It is good news in fact. It means that the average life length is increasing and that the size of the population is at a stable, sustainable level. As the life spans approach and exceed 100 years, it is mathematically expected to see a median close to 50 years.
[–]European Unioncggreene2 1 point2 points3 points  (1 child)
Yes but none of the pensioners will be working and wont contribute any tax
[–]FranceGrutte_Alk [score hidden]  (0 children)
Why are you saying they don't pay taxes?
[–]SpainEryemil [score hidden]  (0 children)
It is good news in fact. It means that the average life length is increasing and that the size of the population is at a stable, sustainable level.
That is not what it means. Life expectancy is rising very, very slowly and by 2060 will only be around 82 in Europe, if you project the same current trends that this graph is based on.
These numbers are almost completely due to blow-replacement level fertility.
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