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BadEconomics Discussion Thread, 16 October 2015 (self.badeconomics)

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[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

The learning curve for matlab is surprisingly high. It took me way to long to figure out how to run a regression.

[–]cheald 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm curious what your opinion of R is.

[–]MoneyChurchChairman of the Kennywood Park Central Bank 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

(X'X)\X'Y

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Yeah, it took me an embarrassingly long time to get to that point.

[–]MoneyChurchChairman of the Kennywood Park Central Bank 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Alternatively, you can use regress. Documentation is your friend.

[–]TophattingsonUndefined Neoliberal Object 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

I suggested it. Now it actually exists. /r/badguardian

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Rule 1: Posts should involve a link to the grauniad website

Edit: Intentional typo? Am I missing a joke here?

[–]TophattingsonUndefined Neoliberal Object 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=grauniad

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Huh. TIL.

[–]autourbanbot 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Here's the Urban Dictionary definition of grauniad :

The Grauniad is a nickname for the UK national newpaper, the Guardian, because of a now ill-founded reputation for typos. The name was given to it by the satirical magazine Private Eye. The Guardian newspaper earned its reputation for lots of misprints in the days of hot-metal printing when it was published in Manchester (it was originally called the Manchester Guardian), and the editions that appeared in London were very early editions brought down by train, before all the errors had been spotted.

Did you read that article in today's Grauniad?

about | flag for glitch | Summon: urbanbot, what is something?

[–]brauer1Undergrad newbie 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Who is the BE nominee for the Canadian Federal Election? I would choose Trudeau and the Liberal Party.

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

See here

[–]besttrousers 5ポイント6ポイント  (5子コメント)

Some friends have proposed that we start a babysitting co-op. They do not know what they have gotten themselves into.

[–]he3-1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I assume you sent them the paper?

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Lucky for them that they included an economist.

[–]wumbotarianKeynesian-on-a-cob 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Tinytrousers!

You liberals and your co-ops smh

[–]somegurkWhy doesn't modern medicine use more leaches? 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

So?

[–]besttrousers 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

So they are now getting emails from me about the optimal stock of baby sitting coupons.

[–]besttrousers 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Boston area BE folks (/u/integralds, /u/p0m, /u/hce3-1):

Want to get drinks this weekend?

[–]he3-1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Going leaf peeping this weekend now all the massholes have cleared out.

[–]p0m"I had a (Keynesian, I guess) economics professor" 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Maybe. I'm completely booked Saturday. Other days could work.

Also muh internet anonymity...

[–]besttrousers 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

You can always wear a guy fawkes mask.

[–]theJalden 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

This is sticky Inflation! We need our stickies backed by something with real value! Bring back the meme standard!

[–]Lambchops_Legionwe should trade in cucumber melon hand soap 11ポイント12ポイント  (0子コメント)

http://i.imgur.com/zW1984m.jpg

Posted in the comments on the top post of /r/funny right now.

Made me chuckle.

[–]Shiloh86I didn't choose the Krug life, the Krug life chose me 6ポイント7ポイント  (13子コメント)

OK, so due to the shortage of RI-style posts recently, I'm going to put forth a policy proposal: it seems we have a lot of new-relatively new users (including myself) who at this point are knowledgeable enough to know what's badeconomics, but not knowledgeable enough to RI badeconomics. At the same time, the more well-known and economically literate users complain often of not being able to find RI-able posts.

So, what I propose is this: the mods create a permanent sticky (sort-by-new by default) in which newer users can link to posts which they think are badecon. The users who are capable of writing RIs can, if they want to write an RI-style post, sift through the posts on the sticky in order to find new material.

Sounds like a good idea?

[–]wumbotarianKeynesian-on-a-cob 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

You can ask people to write RIs for you.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Remember. The best way to learn on the Internet isn't to ask a question, it's to post the wrong answer.

[–]besttrousers 11ポイント12ポイント  (4子コメント)

Counterproposal:

New users should write up R1s, get them torn apart by old users, then write better R1s. We want to increase the long run stock of people who can write R1s.

[–]wumbotarianKeynesian-on-a-cob 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

I support this policy.

[–]besttrousers 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

You are the patron saint of "Writing bad economics on the economics, getting into arguments, modifying your views, writing good economics on the internet."

[–]wumbotarianKeynesian-on-a-cob 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

Feels good and bad at the same time. Looking backwards and cringing is a terrible feeling.

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sucking at something is the first step to being kinda good at something

[–]MysticSnowman 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Very good idea. As a member of the aforementioned "relatively new users" I have seen a multitude of bad economics around the internet, but I'm not knowledgeable to RI it. I hope to contribute to this idea in the future.

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 4ポイント5ポイント  (2子コメント)

How can you know enough to know bad econ when you see it yet not know why it's bad econ?

Really you've just gotta go for the RI. You'll likely get a little chewed up the first time around but all RI writers start somewhere and tend to get better the more RIs they write. I believe in you.

[–]wumbotarianKeynesian-on-a-cob 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

How can you know enough to know bad econ when you see it yet not know why it's bad econ?

"How do you know?"

Nice.

[–]guitar_vigilante 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's more that we (although I have posted once and didn't get torn apart for my R1) know and understand where the major consensus and conclusions of economics are (things like free trade is good, lump of labor fallacy, luddite fallacy, etc.), and we can spot where things are clearly just wrong. The problem comes that we don't have the necessary background sometimes to explain, in economics terms, why they are bad or wrong in a systematic way.

[–]Lambchops_Legionwe should trade in cucumber melon hand soap 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

Sometimes I see bad Econ so bad I don't even know how to write an R1 because I don't know where to start

[–]besttrousers 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

/u/CatFortune's post yesterday was too good at this.

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 1ポイント2ポイント  (6子コメント)

Going to Copenhagen for a week at the end of November. Any locals on here have good recommendations for me to enjoy your socialist hellscape beautiful country?

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 2ポイント3ポイント  (5子コメント)

Yes. Tivoli (beautiful garden/theme park in the middle of the city), if they are open, and The Little Mermaid (aptly named, by the way. She's tiny) is the normal tourist traps. Also, if you are into that kind of thing, the National Museum is quite nice and free of charge. All public museums is, actually. Anything in particular you are interested in?

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

Jackpot!

Definitely into museums for history and art and all that jazz. In particular though good restaurants, beers, and anything that panders to my interest in Norse mythology and viking culture would be things that I'd enjoy the most.

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Just remembered that we probably should page /u/Lambchops_Legion

If you are into Vikings, then you should totally check you the Viking museum in Roskilde. It's like 30 minutes outside of Copenhagen with train, but totally worth it.

[–]Lambchops_Legionwe should trade in cucumber melon hand soap 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I'm not Danish, I'm just obsessed with football/soccer.

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Including Danish soccer? How else do you know FC Midtjylland? It's a club in the middle of nowhere (No, seriously, there is a popular show called "Where the fuck is Herning?", where Herning is the city FC Midtjylland is from), whose only trophy was the league last season

[–]Lambchops_Legionwe should trade in cucumber melon hand soap 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah...I'm weird like that. I know them because they crushed Southampton in the Europa League and they have the same owner as Brentford FC, Matthew Benham. Benham and both his teams are known for taking an analytic approach to the transfer market.

[–]somegurkWhy doesn't modern medicine use more leaches? 1ポイント2ポイント  (15子コメント)

Reposting from the old thread.

Voting when people have non-standard preferences. Some issues are so core to a persons voting position that their preferences may be lexiographic. Is this retarded or are there papers about this? what about if their preferences aren't entirely lexiographic but for one or two important issues they are.

[–]wumbotarianKeynesian-on-a-cob 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

their preferences may be lexiographic.

Hisssss shun the irrational! hissssss

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's rational just not continuous. So no pretty utility functions.

[–]wumbotarianKeynesian-on-a-cob 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ah okay. I got a B in micro 1.

[–]somegurkWhy doesn't modern medicine use more leaches? 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Lexicographic preferences aren't necessarily irrational, at least they may be complete and transitive, it's just your not willing to substitute and your indif. curve ain't a curve anymore.

[–]Polisskolan2 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

what about if their preferences aren't entirely lexiographic but for one or two important issues they are.

That case is contained by the case of general cardinal preferences. For instance, if your cardinal preferences are additive, you can easily assign each alternative "weights" in a way that yields lexicographic preferences, or partly lexicographic preferences.

[–]somegurkWhy doesn't modern medicine use more leaches? 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Hmmm to be honest I know little enough about cardinal preferences, is their a standard representation theorem for them?

[–]theJalden 2ポイント3ポイント  (8子コメント)

Maybe voting preferences are cardinal and Issue A > Issues B + C + D ...

Then again, I'm just pulling this out of the air.

[–]somegurkWhy doesn't modern medicine use more leaches? 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

So by construction the utility gained from issue A must be greater than the sum of the utility derived from any combination of the other policies. Is their a standard representation theorem for cardinal preferences like you have ordinal?

Suppose could assign a probability of zero to choosing a bundle that doesn't contain the individuals preferred stance on Issue A.

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 1ポイント2ポイント  (6子コメント)

Ranking preferences in terms of A > B is ordinal, not cardinal.

[–]somegurkWhy doesn't modern medicine use more leaches? 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Not necessarily or at least not without expanding a bit. If A ≻ B you haven't said anything about whether it is ordinal or cardinal. The standard representation theorem I know will assign a utility value such that U(A) > U(B) and it would be ordinal in that no information is contained about how much more A is preferred to B. But a cardinal representation would also have to maintain the relationship that U(A) > U(B). Though I haven't seen a cardinal utility representation theorem i imagine someone must have drawn one up for fun at some stage.

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ah yes, you are right.

[–]theJalden 2ポイント3ポイント  (3子コメント)

But to add the value they have to be cardinal right? I'm not just saying A > B > C ... I'm saying the weight the voter puts on A, for example 90 exceeds the weight of all other issues added together for example, 10, 8, 3, 1, .1, .0001, etc.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Shit, messed up my response. Sounds like you are defining preferences not over A,B,C,... but over states of the world in which some of those are enacted and some are not.

For example, its not that I like A more than B. Rather, I prefer a world in which A alone is passes versus B alone. But there are other states to consider (like both get passed and both are rejected).

So a complete mapping of preferences isn't over A, B, ... but over vectors like (A passed, B not passed, C passed, ...) and (A not passed, B passed, C passed, etc). So vectors describing which are enacted and which are not.

[–]theJalden 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I'm using "A" as shorthand for "A single issue gets passed, or is supported by my president/representative" while "B + C + D..." is "All the other issues that I place some value in are passed/supported by the politician'

[–]Homeboy_JesusI'm Mr. Mises look at me!!! 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Hmmm I don't think so but I could be wrong. Probably best to ask /u/urnbabyurn about it.

[–]complexsystemschills in kiwi irc #badeconomics all day 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

Second.

Blog readings of the morning

Income and Weight Gain, TL,DR: Instruments matter

Some economics on beer mergers

I've actually heard some mixed things on whether or not US regulators will bring Anti-trust claims against the merger, but I'm watching it a bit.

Economic Effects of Oil Shocks

and related, Real shocks vs NGDP shocks (and their effect on unemployment)

[–]DrSandbagsDow Jones Propaganda Index 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

BTW, I'm registered for SEA if we want to set up a BE meetup.

[–]Lambchops_Legionwe should trade in cucumber melon hand soap 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

First