47
48

Uber and the Great Taxicab Collapse (youtube.com)

Eagle-- が 投稿

全 70 件のコメント
並べ替え:
ベスト
トップ新着論争中古い順Q&A

[–]_red 30ポイント31ポイント  (1子コメント)

Took an Uber the other day, during the conversation the driver announced that in fact he had been a taxi driver for 15 years. That he had actually protested in front of city hall to stop Uber from coming to town.

I asked him why the change of heart. His response was interesting...said that after thinking about it he realized (a) it was a futile fight, if thats what the public wanted that he should join instead of fight against, (b) that if he got a four door with leather seats he could service both UberX and Uber Select, thus get the chance for higher rates, (c) It was so much safer for him! No more picking up anonymous sketchy people from side of road.

[–]FacehAnti-Federalist - /r/Rational_Liberty 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

Dear God it restores my faith in humanity to see that some people can change their mind and adopt positions they previously opposed when exposed to new arguments and information.

Said faith will be destroyed in short order, but still... warms my heart.

[–]LibertyAboveALL 12ポイント13ポイント  (25子コメント)

Government price distortions really destroy the average person when it finally collapses. The drop-off is much greater than what would naturally occur and without people nearly as prepared for it.

[–]tossertomlet's find out 5ポイント6ポイント  (2子コメント)

But don't you know Uber exploits its drivers?

[–]Muffinator4Friedmanite 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

They're employees! Who work as much or as little as they want, whenever they want.

[–]Celtictussle"Ow. Fucking Fascist!" -The Dude 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Just like all employees. Show up when you want, leave when you want, wear what you want, use the equipment that you want, pay your own taxes, and take on all the risks of operation....just like all employees...

[–]shadowofashadow 0ポイント1ポイント  (36子コメント)

This all seems so futile, the entire industry will be on its head in a few years when automatic cars start coming out en masse. Uber is even going to have trouble competing at that point.

[–]soskroodBuilding Pylons 15ポイント16ポイント  (4子コメント)

why? I heard that uber plans on owning automatic cars.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/feb/03/are-driverless-cars-the-future-of-uber

[–]shadowofashadow 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

I guess I should have said that any company that fails to adapt will be squeezed out, much like the current taxi system.

Uber has an opportunity, let's hope they don't act as silly as the current taxi drivers.

[–]theforshizzalistAnarcho-Capitalist 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

I think Uber stands to benefit in the short term when automated cars become a thing. Self-driving cars are probably going to be a high-price item so many of us regular folk will still be sporting our people-operated vehicles. At a fair price, I would totally use Uber more if they had self-driving cars.

Once self-driving cars get cheap enough though, they might have some trouble staying in business.

[–]shadowofashadow 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

The interesting point to me is that once they become ubiquitous everyone becomes a taxi. Sitting at work? Lend your car out to make a few bucks on the side while you're at the office.

Just shows how the markets will always be disrupted by new technologies, many in ways that people currently in the industry could never even imagine.

[–]Not_PicturedAnarcho-Objectivish 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The real long term problem for Uber is that their entire business can be replaced by a robot. I am very curious how much actual labor their app requires on the back end. I assume ridiculously little outside of their legal department.

I am very thankful for them popularizing the employment model. Eternally grateful in fact, but I'm short Uber.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -1ポイント0ポイント  (29子コメント)

few years when automatic cars start coming out en masse

The technology for self driving cars is in its infancy. They can not distinguish a cardboard box or trash bag from a rock, nor can they understand police or construction workers directing traffic, or other temporary route modifications. The tech needs at least several decades more development.

The people at Google have only ever tested with pre-mapped routes in a controlled environment. They know they will not have a working prototype out within another generation or two, but they keep the charade going for PR.

The best we'll get is drivers assist, which is already in use in many luxury models. However, these are a far cry from "automatic."

[–]shadowofashadow 3ポイント4ポイント  (5子コメント)

I think you may be a little out of date on your info.

The people at Google have only ever tested with pre-mapped routes in a controlled environment

Pre-mapped routes yes, but not in a controlled environment. They've done hundreds of miles on open roads.

I agree they are probably overhyped a bit at this point, but decades is way too far of an outlook.

[–]stankbucket[🍰] 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

They've done hundreds of miles on open roads

I think you may be a little out of date on your info. It was at 700K over a year ago and over 1M this year

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -3ポイント-2ポイント  (3子コメント)

They premapped the routes specifically to avoid factors that the technology can not operate in. By definition, that "open road" was controlled.

If I'm out of date, show me an example of the car understanding ad hoc instructions from a traffic officer. We're several decades out, at least, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's another half century. The tech is nowhere near where it needs to be.

Sources for my comment, straight from Google engineers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Anarcho_Capitalism/comments/3nqo3z/googles_selfdriving_cars_still_face_many/

[–]shadowofashadow 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

By definition, that "open road" was controlled.

This does make sense.

I guess the stuff I had read was all being overly optimistic. I thought they were already doing road testing for trucks and whatnot.

I'll take a look at the link you provided. Thanks.

[–]stankbucket[🍰] 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

That is over a year old.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

And what has changed? I'm making claims backed by Toyota, Google, MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Berkley, and other industry players. I'm not trying to piss in your beer, but prove me wrong. I have seen nothing that leads me to believe Google is anywhere close to overcoming these challenges.

[–]CyricYourGodAnarcho-Capitalist 2ポイント3ポイント  (18子コメント)

You're over-exaggerating with "decades". We're within a decade for a fully automatic self-driving car. Image recognition is basically there.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -2ポイント-1ポイント  (17子コメント)

I'm not against progress, so please show me one example of the car's software following ad hoc instructions from a traffic officer.

It needs to do what this guy says with near perfect accuracy.

https://youtu.be/j-0-Rcv0kM4

This would be a massive innovation, generations ahead of Watson. It would be true AI or close to it, and found in a vehicle. It would revolutionize far more than transport. And it flat out doesn't exist. We're talking several decades at the least, possibly closer to a century. And even that may be optimistic.

[–]CyricYourGodAnarcho-Capitalist 2ポイント3ポイント  (16子コメント)

Just because it's not implemented doesn't mean it can't be invented. It's no different than how the Kinect reads body movement and interprets them as input. The technology exists it just needs to be programmed. You're making it more complex than it is but it's nothing more than interpreting arm movements and context.

[–]hotoatmeal 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

nor is it even necessary... I could imagine a system where the car could figure out that it needs a human to understand the directions, and calls 'home' to a call-center of people whose only job is to take such overrides and somehow explain them to the car.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -2ポイント-1ポイント  (14子コメント)

nothing more than interpreting arm movements and context.

And verbal commands. And putting them in context is extraordinarily difficult. Mind you, none of this is standardized, because it would have to follow the arm movements and context of a screaming mother or lazy union member filling potholes. Of course it can be invented, but we don't even have a proof of concept for this sort of technology.

We're within a decade for a fully automatic self-driving car.

You're saying that we're within a decade of commercial artificial intelligence.

[–]CyricYourGodAnarcho-Capitalist 1ポイント2ポイント  (13子コメント)

I don't know where you drive but verbal commands are almost never used by traffic cops. They direct traffic using their hands because it turns out most people have their windows rolled up. However, again, we already have verbal interpretation technology. Have you used Siri? Are you even aware of how technology has progressed in the last 10 years?

everything you are saying already have technological solutions that exist, they only need to be programmed

I'm done arguing on this because you appear to be ignorant on how software works.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -2ポイント-1ポイント  (12子コメント)

almost never used by traffic cops

I was verbally instructed the other day in a traffic jam after a game, not just by the officer, but by other people in their cars before that.

I'm done arguing on this because you appear to be ignorant on how software works.

You can't even give one example? That would shut me up good, and quite frankly, blow my mind.

[–]CyricYourGodAnarcho-Capitalist 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

You can't even give one example? That would shut me up good, and quite frankly, blow my mind.

I don't even know where to start. It's like explaining color to someone who only can see black and white. You don't even understand the problems and yet you're trying to declare there can only be certain solutions. We don't need machines that can speak fluent English and have abstract thought. You only think we do because you're either too lazy or too ignorant to understand otherwise.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

Fair enough, but I'd encourage you to read these articles. Everything I said is sourced by Google engineers, MIT, and other industry players.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Anarcho_Capitalism/comments/3nqo3z/googles_selfdriving_cars_still_face_many/

Pedestrians are detected simply as moving, column-shaped blurs of pixels—meaning, Urmson agrees, that the car wouldn’t be able to spot a police officer at the side of the road frantically waving for traffic to stop.

[–]stankbucket[🍰] 0ポイント1ポイント  (8子コメント)

You seem so obsessed about traffic cops and their instructions. Just like they have a whistle as a tool would they not have the ability to signal any driverless cars as to what the hazard is? This kind of stuff is very easy to do.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -2ポイント-1ポイント  (7子コメント)

Just like they have a whistle as a tool would they not have the ability to signal any driverless cars as to what the hazard is? This kind of stuff is very easy to do.

And you can't find me just one link?

[–]bandholzi like triangles 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

The people at Google have only ever tested with pre-mapped routes in a controlled environment.

This statement is not true. Google is testing self driving cars in the neighborhood I live in. I can assure you it's not a controlled environment. That being said, it is a low traffic area and they stay within those confines. I see both the Lexus's and those little bubble cars around all the time.

I don't think we are decades away from road ready products; but I do think we are decades away from mass implementation and legislation changes.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 -3ポイント-2ポイント  (0子コメント)

it's not a controlled environment.

It is controlled in that they sent their geospatial team out there beforehand and they know for certain that there are certain factors they do not need to address. If there were a traffic officer directing traffic, they would be utterly incapable of following the instructions.

They are making progress with the low hanging fruit. The technology required to analyze and respond to unstandardized verbal commands does not exist.

  1. Build car
  2. Build some systems
  3. Artificial Intelligence?
  4. Legislation
  5. Commercialization

We don't even have a proof of concept for number 3. It needs to be generations more advanced than Siri and Watson.

Google often leaves the impression that, as a Google executive once wrote, the cars can “drive anywhere a car can legally drive.” However, that’s true only if intricate preparations have been made beforehand, with the car’s exact route, including driveways, extensively mapped. Data from multiple passes by a special sensor vehicle must later be pored over, meter by meter, by both computers and humans. It’s vastly more effort than what’s needed for Google Maps.

Google’s cars are better at handling some mapping omissions than others. If a new stop light appeared overnight, for example, the car wouldn’t know to obey it. However the car would slow down or stop if its on-board sensors detected any traffic or obstacles in its path.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530276/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/

[–]crash-and-bern_hard 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I think ad-hoc problems can have ad-hoc solutions. I don't like Google's approach to solving the problem. Those working on driver assists will likely come out with a better solution, incrementally pushing boundaries, and Google will end up scrapping their project.

That said, humans directing traffic can be parsed using Kinect like technology. In any case, control of the vehicle can be temporarily transferred to a remote operator so long as the AI is aware it can no longer operate autonomously. This would make economic sense if the remote operators are in charge of a fleet that's larger than the operating staff. In this sense, I'd think Uber will have a part to play in ushering in "driverless" tech.

How long will it take? It's tough to say, ML has been growing at a pace never seen before in the last half decade. But that's mostly powered by technological breakthrough. I however don't think AGI is required for this application. Watson is no simple feat, but that's not a similar problem either. Parsing verbal communication shouldn't be a requirement, otherwise deaf people shouldn't be allowed to drive.

[–]Cialis_In_Wonderland我让你的内裤沙沙了 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Those working on driver assists will likely come out with a better solution, incrementally pushing boundaries, and Google will end up scrapping their project.

This is my opinion as well, and it is shared by Toyota.

http://www.design-engineering.com/general/toyota-sees-future-fully-driverless-car-132263/?utm_source=DNG&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DNG-EN09042014

[–]Celtictussle"Ow. Fucking Fascist!" -The Dude -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

Uber as a business is not about the tech. The tech is dead nuts simple. Uber the business, and it's entire net value, is about fighting entrenched transportation monopolies one city/state at a time.