badeconomics 内の AutoModerator によるリンク BadEconomics Discussion Thread, 04 October 2015

[–]alexhoyer 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Call to action! Please participate in the TPP threads in /r/politics and /r/worldnews if you have time. It's easy to take pot shots from here (and boy do I love pot shots), but I think we should try to contribute a bit more actively to the discourse.

politics 内の SavageHuxley によるリンク Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Well first you're arguing from a debatable premise, while real wages have been stagnant for some time, here is real compensation. Compensation has tracked productivity well (also see here). Wage and productivity decoupling is overstated. Also, somewhat tangentially, consider giving this a read if you have time. Second, looking at point A and point B several decades later and ascribing the outcome to a single policy is poor macroeconomic methodology. Think of the macroeconomy as a maelstrom of numerous forces and events pushing an pulling against one another, all of which realize the economy we observe. Macroeconomics uses computational models and empirics to discern the signs and magnitudes of these forces. Even if what you were saying about compensation were true, the evidence of trade as contributing to this process isn't particularly compelling. Lastly, NAFTA benefitted US workers (though it did benefit Mexico more).

politics 内の SavageHuxley によるリンク Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

We certainly should allocate more funding to worker re-education, but be careful to not commit a lump-of-labor fallacy. Trade has a weak but positive effect on employment and a very weak but positive effect on wages for low-skill and high-skill workers. As always, I'll defer to Krugman on the issue.

politics 内の relevantlife によるリンク Bernie Sanders bashes trade agreement as 'disastrous.' "In the Senate, I will do all that I can to defeat this agreement. We need trade policies that benefit American workers and consumers, not just CEOs of large multi-national corporations."

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

There is no evidence Sanders' characterization of the TPP is appropriate, the full text hasn't been released. With that said, free trade agreements generally benefit US citizens. If Sander's opposition to NAFTA is any indicator, his protectionist rhetoric stands against near universal theoretical and empirical economic consensus.

politics 内の relevantlife によるリンク Bernie Sanders bashes trade agreement as 'disastrous.' "In the Senate, I will do all that I can to defeat this agreement. We need trade policies that benefit American workers and consumers, not just CEOs of large multi-national corporations."

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Free trade agreements benefit average US citizens in the net. Even if that weren't true, you're vastly overestimating the impact of FTAs, trade with India has skyrocketed over the past 20 years even in the absence of an FTA. You are speaking against overwhelming economic consensus on free trade, I though Krugman put this issue to bed but it seems to keep coming up.

politics 内の SavageHuxley によるリンク Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Excellent sub, everyone please at least check it out before coming to a conclusion.

politics 内の SavageHuxley によるリンク Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Not even remotely true, the negotiations are kept secret to produce a harmonized final product. The final product is then produced for the public to discuss well in advance of the actual vote. Nothing about the law goes into effect before public debate.

politics 内の SavageHuxley によるリンク Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Lowering tariffs is good (particularly with Japan if those clauses materialize). Evidence on IP regulations are a bit mixed, though much of the concern here is overblown (TRIPS exempts developing countries from drug patent requirements for example). Harmonization of regulation will work to reduce administrative burdens (particularly important for pharma where drugs have to be recertified in each country they are sold in, FDA approval should be sufficient). It will also work to reduce the ease of animal trafficking, though those policies are somewhat niche. No matter what you're going to hear quite a bit of partisan hackery on both sides.

politics 内の SavageHuxley によるリンク Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Krugman helped to conclusively demonstrate that trade deficits and surpluses aren't an indicator of welfare gains and losses from trade, you can't really read anything insightful about welfare from current account balances.

politics 内の SavageHuxley によるリンク Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached

[–]alexhoyer [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Free trade deals on average benefit middle class workers. More generally, the theoretical and empirical economic evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of free trade, it is one of the areas with the most consensus among economists.

badeconomics 内の AutoModerator によるリンク BadEconomics Discussion Thread, 04 October 2015

[–]alexhoyer 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

In my experience with debates like these the differences aren't just centered around policy, they're epistemological. My prediction is that you'll spend more time discussing how to approach and evaluate the issues than you will on the issues themselves. With that said, I'd say do it just to learn how another discipline looks at the world.

cringe 内の happybubby によるリンク Audience member on BBC's Question Time tries to challenge panel with his knowledge of economics

[–]alexhoyer 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

You've never taken econometrics or experimental design so how can you claim to know how economists approach data?

badeconomics 内の AutoModerator によるリンク BadEconomics Discussion Thread, 03 October 2015

[–]alexhoyer 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

A 50 bps FTT would be catastrophic. Average sec lending spreads are only 10 bps! Only market makers in the most exotic and illiquid securities can make anywhere near 50 bps as is. This policy is lunacy, how the hell did Sanders even come up with these numbers? It's like he doesnt want stock prices to reflect fundamental value at all.

Economics 内の EthicalReasoning によるリンク Record 94,610,000 Americans Not in Labor Force

[–]alexhoyer 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

That is demographic, and is explained by increased school attendance.