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H3 (130MPH) ▼ 18:00 UTC (2 OCT)Joaquin in the Atlantic (self.TropicalWeather)

giantspeckHawaii[M] が 投稿 - stickied post

HURRICANE JOAQUIN

HURRICANE JOAQUIN is the tenth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season and the eleventh storm overall.

  DATE UTC EDT CDT PDT HST
Thread last updated 2 OCT 2015 19:00 15:00 14:00 12:00 09:00
Latest advisory (NHC) (#018A) 2 OCT 2015 18:00 14:00 13:00 11:00 08:00
Next advisory (NHC) (#019)                   2 OCT 2015 21:00 17:00 16:00 14:00 11:00

 

FORECAST GRAPHICS & SATELLITE IMAGERY

Under the "last updated" column, graphics labeled "live" will be the most up-to-date regardless of whether or not the rest of the rest of the information found in this thread has been updated manually by a moderator. This is because the agencies or organizations that maintain these images replace old images with newer images with the same filename. Therefore, the links do not have to be manually changed.
 

FORECAST GRAPHICS

Graphic Source Last Updated
Forecast track graphic National Hurricane Center                    LIVE
Archived 5-day cone graphic       National Hurricane Center LIVE

TROPICAL CYCLONE-SPECIFIC SATELLITE IMAGES

Image Source Last Updated
Latest satellite images U.S. Naval Research Laboratory LIVE
Track, satellite imagery, and data Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies LIVE
Tropical floater imagery (RGB) NOAA Satellite and Information Service   LIVE LOOP
Tropical floater imagery (RBTOP IR) NOAA Satellite and Information Service LIVE LOOP
Morphed Integrated MW imagery Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies LIVE LOOP

REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES

Image Source Last Updated
Atlantic imagery (wide view, IR) NOAA Satellite and Information Service LIVE LOOP
Atlantic imagery (wide view, WV) NOAA Satellite and Information Service LIVE LOOP
Saharan air layer tracking product Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies LIVE

 

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND DATA

Current conditions Change since last advisory
Intensity MAJOR HURRICANE (Category 3) SLIGHTLY WEAKENING
Location 23.8ºN 74.8ºW ↑ (360º) 18.1 nautical miles
Movement ↑ (360º) at 4 knots Remaining northward, ▲ 1 knot
Maximum wind speed 110 knots ▼ 5 knots
Maximum wind gusts
Minimum central pressure 942 millibars ▲ 3 millibars
Environmental pressure 1005 millibars ▼ 1 millibar
Radius of circulation 360 nautical miles NO CHANGE
Radius of maximum winds         15 nautical miles NO CHANGE
Source Date UTC EDT CDT PDT HST
1. Tropical Tidbits 2 October 18:00 14:00 13:00 11:00 08:00
2. National Hurricane Center                   2 October 18:00 14:00 13:00 11:00 08:00

 

FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion (as of 15:00 UTC)
NOTE: This information is only updated during the complete advisories, not during the intermediate advisories.
 
CURRENT INTENSITY:
Joaquin continues to maintain intensity based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aerial reconnaissance data. Central pressure has risen very slightly, though, and satellite imagery shows that the eye is ragged and poorly defined. The storm remains a Category 4 hurricane at the moment.  

FORECAST INTENSITY:
The storm is expected to remain in an environment of light vertical wind shear and warm waters for the next 24 hours with fluctuations in intensity expected for the next 12 to 24 hours due to continued eyewall replacement cycles.

Shear is expected to increase after 24 hours and steady weakening in the storm is expected after that point. Extratropical transition is expected to begin after 96 hours, but some dynamical models suggest that it won't happen until after 120 hours.  

CURRENT MOVEMENT:
The storm is currently drifting northward at 3 knots. A mid-to-upper-level ridge sits to the storm's north while a deep-layer trough and surface front are present over the southeastern United States.  

FORECAST MOVEMENT:
A ridge to the north of the storm is expected to weaken over the next 12 to 24 hours and a non-tropical low is expected to form along the front. This will allow the storm to begin to move rapidly toward the north and ultimately toward the northeast. The GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models are in better agreement that the storm will move generally northeastward during the next 48 hours or so, followed by a more northward turn between 48 and 72 hours. The storm will then be accelerated to the northeast after 72 hours by the westerlies. The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous track after 24 hours and lies between the previous track and the model consensus. Additional eastward adjustments in the forecast are possible with subsequent advisories. This is the third NHC forecast to suggest that the storm will not make landfall in the United States.  

WATCHES / WARNINGS

No changes to the currently issued watches and warnings as of 12:00 UTC (08:00 EDT).

Hurricane Warning Hurricane Watch Tropical Storm Warning
Northwestern Bahamas 1 Bimini (Bahamas) Southeastern Bahamas 3
Central Bahamas 2 Andros Island (Bahamas) Andros Island (Bamahas)
Southeastern Bahamas 4 Turks and Caicos Islands (Bahamas)
Camaguey (Cuba)
Los Tunas (Cuba)
Holguin (Cuba)
Guantanamo (Cuba)

1 - Includes Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.
2 - Includes Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.
3 - Includes Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.
4 - Includes the Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana.  
 

HAZARDS TO LAND

WIND:

Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central Bahamas through today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of eastern Cuba for a few more hours.  

STORM SURGE:

A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  

RAINFALL:

A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  

SURF:

Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

OFFICIAL STATEMENTS

National Hurricane Center:
Homepage | Facebook | Twitter  
  

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK (NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER):

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 74.8 West.  Joaquin is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general
motion should continue this afternoon.  A turn toward the northeast
is expected tonight with an increase in forward speed.  On the
forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will
continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the Bahamas
tonight and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to
begin on Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches).  A Bahamas Meteorology Department
station on San Salvador recently reported a pressure of 969.9 mb
(28.63 inches).

 

CURRENT ANALYSIS PRODUCTS

Other Data Source Last Updated
Sea Surface Temperatures NOAA Satellite and Information Service LIVE
Surface Winds Analysis NOAA Satellite and Information Service 2 OCT 2015, 12:00 UTC
Surface Analysis: 00:00 UTC National Hurricane Center LIVE
Surface Analysis: 06:00 UTC         National Hurricane Center LIVE
Surface Analysis: 12:00 UTC National Hurricane Center LIVE
Surface Analysis: 18:00 UTC National Hurricane Center LIVE
Weather Tools KMZ file Google Earth Blog LIVE
Aircraft Reconnaissance Data Tropical Tidbits LIVE

 

TRACK & INTENSITY GUIDANCE PRODUCTS

Model Ouput Source Last Updated
Track guidance Tropical Tidbits LIVE
Intensity guidance Tropical Tidbits LIVE
GEFS ensemble tracks Tropical Tidbits LIVE
GEPS ensemble tracks Tropical Tidbits LIVE
Tropical Cyclone Guidance University of Albany LIVE
Real-Time Guidance National Center for Atmospheric Research, UCAR LIVE
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[–]Robaye 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

ELI5: How Joaquin is feeding moisture and rain into the East Coast despite being far away

[–]Seymour_ZamboniUnited States 19ポイント20ポイント  (1子コメント)

Evolution of the cone of uncertainty for Joaquin

[–]nydutch 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

This is great. Thanks.

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 14ポイント15ポイント  (60子コメント)

So, here's why all the "the Euro was right" talk is kind of cheesy and problematic:

  1. Most people who are saying such things are doing so in a bragging, condescending tone, as though the Euro model is flawless. It's not.
  2. While yes, the Euro model ultimately predicted that the storm would remain at sea, the Euro model also wildly wobbled from east to west. If you recall approximately 48 hours ago, the Euro model forecasted that the storm would turn sharply to the east and head back into the Central Atlantic. Now the Euro model is forecasting a track that takes it west of Bermuda. That's a fairly significant difference. This shows that while the Euro model was accurate, it was neither precise nor consistent. It showed just as much variance as many of the other models.

[–]Capon3 4ポイント5ポイント  (6子コメント)

You make it sound like there is a war between models lol. Like PS4 vs Xbone.

[–]Zephenia 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

It is in a way, but, the main problem is instead of gaming experience, we are talking serious business. It's the difference of warranted or unwarranted hype with thousands of lives on the line, evacuation orders, and governors declaring or not declaring disaster zones. This is why it pisses people off when someone gets haughty about a single model. They are all equally important to getting the final solution, accuracy for saving lives. It's a needed discussion to move forward in the forecasting community. It's been happening since the first days of hurricane tracking.

[–]SuperPizzaGameNorth Carolina 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

That's because one guy insists that his favorite model is 100% correct and it's bothering people.

[–]dopey_giraffe -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

You, and everyone else who've never even heard of these models until finding this subreddit, need to research them. It has nothing to do with me "loving" the Euro. NEARLY EVERY MODEL HAS AN OTS SOLUTION, AND THEY ALL CORRECTED TOWARDS THE EURO LIKE USUAL. I'm fucking tired of this brigading and explaining my position over and over.

I love talking about weather but you guys are making it awful.

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's not just one guy. I didn't post this to single out any one user.

[–]SuperPizzaGameNorth Carolina 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Still, it's stupid and all these people are doing is just fanning the flames of a model war.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

In a way it's similar. Also like android vs iOS

[–]xerkLouisiana 4ポイント5ポイント  (7子コメント)

Here is the mean track forecast error for Joaquin so far. It has most big models and the official NHS forecast.

Yes the Euro has flipped back and forth a bit on its forecast for 3-5 days out, but so far it's been the most accurate for this system at every time point.

I'm not trying to be condescending or anything here, but there is a reason the Euro has its reputation. Part of it is also that the Euro is published a few hours after the GFS and others, so we end up waiting a bit to see if what is empirically our best model agrees with all the others.

I agree that the Euro is not always the best, but it's done well enough that I think it's earned the respect it gets from both the pros and amateur community.

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 4ポイント5ポイント  (6子コメント)

I'll go with you on that, but I will point out that while the Euro model may have been most accurate with respect to position, it was the least accurate with respect to intensity.

[–]xerkLouisiana 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Absolutely true.

I'm not "rooting" for any particular forecast or model, but things seemed to be getting a little heated, so I thought I'd put some numbers out there.

Also, this chart doesn't take into account any landfall or out-to-sea scenario because the storm hasn't actually gotten there yet. It will be interesting to take a look back at this after Joaquin is history.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 2ポイント3ポイント  (4子コメント)

Idk I have a hard time buying anything being that accurate 96hours out (his graph) that said I'm sure it's very good in the other cases

[–]xerkLouisiana 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

This graph is only up to where the storm is now, so a lot of the reason the Euro looks good is because it's the one that zeroed-in on the southwest movement into the Bahamas while most of the others had the storm going due west or making a turn earlier.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ah ok good point.

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

The problem I'm having is not necessarily the model's accuracy. I can concede that the Euro model was the most accurate when it came to position, but it's problematic that it was least accurate with intensity. Here's why:

Imagine if the synoptic situation wasn't as complex and it was clear to almost all of the models that the storm would make landfall on the East Coast. While the Euro model would have given the most accurate position and timing of the landfall, it would have given the least accurate landfall intensity. If people relied solely on the Euro model's accuracy with respect to position, they'd be caught off guard by the inaccuracy with respect to intensity.

It's a sort of false sense of hope/dread situation.

[–]xerkLouisiana 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think it's worth mentioning that any time rapid intensification is involved, the models usually get thrown for a loop. (Unless it's the HWRF, which seems to regularly turn invests into Cat 5s). The Euro definitely missed this one pretty badly, though.

[–]Zephenia 7ポイント8ポイント  (38子コメント)

I think some of the people on here helped develop the Euro or something. The bragging and condescending tones are bizarre.

[–]dopey_giraffe -2ポイント-1ポイント  (31子コメント)

Just hear me out:

This is my hobby and I've been watching these models for years. The Euro, historically, is the one that's most often correct. There are several reasons for this (better hardware, better data, more funding). When other models start correcting themselves to the Euro, it's nearly always a sign that the Euro is correct. When the GFS corrects itself towards the Euro, it's pretty much a sure shot. I don't have a love affair with the Euro, but it's the model that holds the most weight. If the other models held serve towards an EC landfall, I wouldn't be making any of these claims.

I'm not trying to be condescending, but people are pouncing on me and I'm pulling out my hair because I don't know how to help you guys understand. I don't know what else to say.

Should I just report what I see and keep my personal analysis out of it?

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

I'm not going to question the quality of the Euro model. I am not trying to say that it's shit.

What I'm not too pleased with is the attitude that makes it seem like no one should have been worried about the storm because the Euro was right about it remaining mostly at sea.

It provides a false sense of hope, especially for the people of the Bahamas, a place that none of the models, including the Euro model, thought was going to see a significant impact. And now, the country has a Category 3 hurricane hovering over it.

[–]dopey_giraffe 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

I never ever said no one should have been worried all along. I was convinced we (NJ) were going to at least feel some kind of major effect from this storm up until 2am last night.

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm not talking about you specifically. There have been dozens of people bragging about the Euro model or telling people not to worry because the Euro model would keep the storm at sea throughout the past couple of days.

[–]nydutch 4ポイント5ポイント  (6子コメント)

We're not arguing the superiority of the euro solutions. They are often correct. Especially in the day 4 and 5 solutions but none the less, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

It's your refusal to admit that, that I think is bothering everyone. There's a reason for the word precedent. Sometimes things happen that you never knew were possible.

[–]whyarentwethereyet 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I see what you are saying...at this point people are wishcasting.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 2ポイント3ポイント  (7子コメント)

Yes. It doesn't matter which model is most likely to be right. No model is 100%. I you cant accept that people already dealing with flooding are going to want to continue to keep an eye on the storm as it passes, then you are best just keeping your opinion to yourself.

[–]dopey_giraffe -4ポイント-3ポイント  (6子コメント)

The current flooding is not associated with Jaoquin.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I didn't say that but the hurricane has fed moisture into the trough.

[–]dopey_giraffe -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

The hurricane and the ULL are drawing in the same moisture. That flooding would have happened regardless. Jaoquin's actual contribution is minimal, and yes, the hurricane is likely stealing potential moisture from the system.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

We've discussed this before. Better hardware is not going to make the models magically better, faster yes, not better. Also the models corrected themselves to each other, the euro model was and is wrong as well.

[–]fatmanbrigade 9ポイント10ポイント  (10子コメント)

I'd appreciate if you stopped saying it's not going to affect anyone on the east coast when every single source of information I've got disagrees with you. Major flooding is still a real possibility here with this storm, and there's still a possibility the Euro is too far to the east and it hugs the coast line.

Please stop acting like anything is 100% certain and I'll take your posts with more than just a grain of salt.

[–]whyarentwethereyet -5ポイント-4ポイント  (9子コメント)

You are the one sounding condescending here...the flooding in NC/SC/N GA is NOT associated with the hurricane, those flooding rains are thanks to an ULL. The chances of this thing doing ANYTHING but going OTS is minuscule at best. If it does I'll eat my shoe.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

So are you gonna deep fry that shoe or what?

[–]dopey_giraffe -5ポイント-4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thank you.

[–]fatmanbrigade 3ポイント4ポイント  (5子コメント)

Really? So I'm condescending because I believe in margin of error? Good to know that buddy.

[–]whyarentwethereyet 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

You are doing the exact same thing he was doing, you just happen to have a different opinion.

"Good to know that buddy" is super condescending.

[–]fatmanbrigade 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

No actually I won't try to spin it, that post was meant to sound condescending in regards to be called condescending for asking that we stop speaking about things as if they're 100% certain. Margin of error is and always will be a possibility.

[–]dopey_giraffe -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

The margin of error is pointless to consider here though. Why entertain it? Every off shore hurricane has a small chance of making landfall. Should we declare states of emergencies for all of them too?

[–]fatmanbrigade 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm saying the margin of error is not related to landfall, but to how far toward the coast it might be. It only needs to be a significant amount to the west to actually impact how much moisture the east coast receives regardless of whether it makes landfall. It's not "out of the woods" just because it doesn't make a direct hit, even a pass over the east coast would bring significant issues, that's all I'm saying.

[–]whyarentwethereyet -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

Except you didn't say just that you also said your sources 100% disagree with him and then neglected to post these sources. You essentially said "I'm right and you are wrong, and I'm not going to prove to you why." If that isn't condescending then I don't know what is. It doesn't really matter, most models are in agreement that she is going OTS.

[–]nydutch 9ポイント10ポイント  (0子コメント)

Let's see if our friend chimes in to explain how we're all wrong.

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 8ポイント9ポイント  (3子コメント)

Honestly, it's just not helpful to anyone in this thread who are trying to get accurate information. It also kind of cheapens the work that everyone is doing right now to accurately forecast the storm's trajectory and effects if we're bragging about a single model being "right all along", especially when it really, technically wasn't.

It's also kind of bad timing to be happily bragging about a particular model product when it's almost certain that people have died. The Euro model never originally had the storm hitting the Bahamas. I don't think any of the models did.

[–]Zephenia 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I agree. It's not just Reddit either. The Euro-brag is going on on twitter as well. Luckily the media didn't pick up on it. Replacing one hype with another equally if not more dangerous hype does not help matters.

[–]SuperPizzaGameNorth Carolina 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Honestly, all this happy bragging about their model bring right is already turning me off of this community. Seriously, bragging about a hurricane ending lives because it's following your model? Bad taste, man.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Nor did they predict a CAT 4 storm iirc

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

My biggest gripe is how people where saying it's right. The only part it got right was staying over sea but it got and is still getting how far out to sea very wrong. Hell NAM got that right too at first lol

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 8ポイント9ポイント  (5子コメント)

I've dropped the flair to Category 3 because Tropical Tidbits has the storm at 110 knots, which is a borderline Category 3 / Category 4, and because the latest aerial reconnaissance mission (AF306 Mission #11) showed a peak surface wind of 109 knots. Also, pressure continues to rise with each advisory.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Is that also why the eye is hard to see?

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Not necessarily. An eye could still be easily visible even if it were only a category 1. However, I believe an earlier aerial reconnaissance showed a double maximum wind, which is indicative of a possible eyewall replacement cycle. I don't know if it's still undergoing that process.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Ok, so going down to a category three wouldn't be from an eyewall replacement right? That's too much of weakening to just be from that?

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's not a large drop. The storm was already just a weak Category 4 storm, with winds of 115 knots. The storm is now just a strong Category 3 with winds of 110 knots. A storm's intensity will always fluctuate during an eyewall replacement cycle. It just so happens that the storm was on the border between categories when the latest cycle occurred.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oh, ok. Thank you!

[–]ForgotAboutMike 4ポイント5ポイント  (28子コメント)

Wait...didn't the Euro come out at 2? Any update on that?

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

Still thinks it will go Far East.

[–]ForgotAboutMike 17ポイント18ポイント  (1子コメント)

All the way to China? That's gonna be a violent turn.

[–]Zephenia 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Not before making a stop in Brazil. #Euro

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 11ポイント12ポイント  (0子コメント)

Hey, everyone! I'm updating the thread now. Also, because I'm off for the next three days, I'll probably be awake for the next advisory, as well, because I always seem to fuck up my sleep schedule on weekends!

If I'm gone for any extended period of time, it's because I've stepped away to update my Mac to El Capitan.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 8ポイント9ポイント  (9子コメント)

Looks like its feeding the Carolina rains pretty heavily now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[–]velawesomeraptors 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Also it's suddenly cold! It was in the 80s two days ago and right now it's below 60.

[–]raika11182 10ポイント11ポイント  (3子コメント)

I'm in Virginia and have water coming through my front door. So... yeah.

Edit: Rain, not flooding.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Oh crap. I'm slightly uphill from the Patuxent which is a few houses away from me. Might go check it out. I hope the pier isn't gone again.

[–]raika11182 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I should clarify, it's rain, not flooding. :-)

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oh, good. My house sounds like the wind is going to blow it down. Good thing I don't live in the woods anymore, I think.

[–]squishyblooNorth Carolina 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

Yes, yes it is... :(

glub

[–]Bandeezy 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Just got back from a rain run along the beach. I love this kind of weather!

[–]squishyblooNorth Carolina 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Hah! I'm stuck in Fayetteville... no beach here. :(

I feel lucky actually; we were in Wrightsville earlier this week while it was still nice!

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

I am very sorry. Have you tried shipping your rain to California? Maybe parcel post?

[–]BoxMan6 4ポイント5ポイント  (4子コメント)

Can someone explain why the GEPS in the main thread keeps showing it slamming NC, But the GEFS Does not? Which should we trust and why not?

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

~~I believe geps only uses previous storms to predict where it will go not current conditions ~~

See below

[–]xerkLouisiana 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

This isn't correct. The GEPS is the ensemble version of the CMC/Canadian model.

Basically it's just not very good.

[–]reverendramboSouth Carolina 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Why do we keep using models that are usually wrong?

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ah thanks for the correction

[–]nycpizzaparty 4ポイント5ポイント  (4子コメント)

Is there any chance that this will not head out to sea and actually make landfall on US eastern seaboard?

[–]nydutch 16ポイント17ポイント  (2子コメント)

Yes.

[–]Jay_AP1Tampa 9ポイント10ポイント  (2子コメント)

Well it went from 23.5°N 74.8°W to 23.8°N 74.8°W. 3 mph to 5 mph. And 938 to 942 mb.

At least it sped up a little I guess.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

Straight north huh? Interesting

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

The shape of its outer bands have changed as well. He's on the move. finally.

[–]_supernovasky_Louisiana 10ポイント11ポイント  (8子コメント)

Recon has descwnded to 800 feet to look for the ship.

[–]CarolinaPunkNorth Carolina 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

how do you follow the recon flights.

[–]ozzimark 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Impressive, this must have been in the eye. Any confirmation of this report, aside from the anomaly i'm seeing in the HH mission data?

[–]PhilaDopephiaPhiladelphia 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Will this effect data?

[–]whyarentwethereyet 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

I couldn't imagine being one of those thirty people...must be absolutely terrifying.

[–]rodneyP 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

who cares? Ship is more important

[–]PhilaDopephiaPhiladelphia 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

You're assuming I don't care about the ship. All I did was ask if this effects the data.

[–]ozzimark 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

They took 4 passes prior to dipping down to take a look. Seems like this is an extra pass that they wouldn't have done otherwise, potentially collecting even more data.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 7ポイント8ポイント  (22子コメント)

Ummmm...... https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQUnXbVWUAACiZs.mp4

[–]chrissymadMaryland 3ポイント4ポイント  (6子コメント)

What does that mean exactly

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 5ポイント6ポイント  (5子コメント)

It turned! Maybe

[–]Marino4K 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

That looks due north.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Its not spinning in place or still going west, I'll take it. I just didn't have time to make the .gif say "something's happening!"

[–]chrissymadMaryland 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

You guys are much better at this than I am, I don't see anything but spinning!

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

If you look at the eye in the center it goes northish in the last few frames. Ignore the spinning outside the eye.

[–]Zephenia 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can't tell. Maybe I'm going insane.

[–]Jay_AP1Tampa 3ポイント4ポイント  (6子コメント)

Isn't this from the 9:45 am est update though?

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 1ポイント2ポイント  (5子コメント)

No, look at the Morphed Integrated MW imagery in the main post.

[–]Jay_AP1Tampa 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Well I know it's not live like it says, Cause I seen it over an hour ago and the time stamp stopped at the same time 13:45. This is where it comes from, check out the current time and the time stamp. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/mainpage.html

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

When it says live it just means that the linked loop continues to be updated at regular intervals.

[–]Jay_AP1Tampa 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Haha that makes sooo much more sense.

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, it means that when there's an update, the agency responsible for maintaining that image simply replaces the old image with a new one with the same filename, meaning I don't have to manually search for the new image. The image shown will always be the newest available image regardless of whether I've touched the rest of the post or not.

[–]PhilaDopephiaPhiladelphia 2ポイント3ポイント  (7子コメント)

I cannot see twitter links at work, what is this?

[–]Jay_AP1Tampa 2ポイント3ポイント  (5子コメント)

It's this. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_07.html

[–]dopey_giraffe -2ポイント-1ポイント  (4子コメント)

Doesn't explain much. Does it change anything?

[–]Jay_AP1Tampa 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

To me it looks like it started to go NE, then right at the end it went back to going north.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

It went north a bit along the 75 W line. It's something, at least.

[–]dopey_giraffe -2ポイント-1ポイント  (1子コメント)

What does this mean for the future?

[–]squishyblooNorth Carolina 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Eye stops just short of 75 and jogs north a bit.

[–]chrissymadMaryland 8ポイント9ポイント  (5子コメント)

Is this super abnormal for a hurricane like this? I don't track storms like most here, other than the normal checking the weather but I can't recall any other time where the forecast has been so uncertain, erratic and where a system has just sat and sat over that area this long.

[–]dopey_giraffe 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Not in recent memory, but despite the stalling and wobbles the models still consistently show an OTS solution. That's pretty much all that matters.

[–]chrissymadMaryland 5ポイント6ポイント  (2子コメント)

Unless you're in the Bahamas cause no matter which way it goes at this point they're still screwed for the time being, especially with another one right behind it.

[–]dopey_giraffe -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

Also, Bermuda might be hit by this. They won't have much time to prepare.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sorta, not usually this bad.

[–]_supernovasky_Louisiana 5ポイント6ポイント  (7子コメント)

Does anyone have faith in northeast movement over the next 12 hours?

[–]PhilaDopephiaPhiladelphia 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

/u/giantspeck seems to agree with it... I think the eye is moving north northwest currently, even though it's slow I want to believe this isn't going to fizzle and go OTS

[–]giantspeckHawaii[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm not agreeing with it; I'm simply parroting the official forecast from the NHC.

[–]IzzyInterrobangMaryland 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I almost saw a northeasterly wobble on the RBTOP floater. Probably seeing things at this point.

[–]squishyblooNorth Carolina 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

This is a real, "BITCH, DON'T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!" storm, that's for sure!

[–]DwtD_xKiNGz 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't even know what to think about this storm anymore.

[–]stryfex 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

I have faith in not moving south. That's about it.

[–]Elliott2Pennsylvania! 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

North and maybe a bit east. Dunno if it will stay that way.

[–]Xaila 14ポイント15ポイント  (2子コメント)

http://abc13.com/news/us-coast-guard-searching-for-ship-with-33-people-aboard-missing-in-hurricane/1013382/ Coast guard is searching for a missing cargo ship with 33 on board in the Bahamas.

[–]tkwouterWashington, D.C. 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sad news.

[–]lrsmithwhaleyPanama City, FL 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

:(

[–]Alabama_Crab_Dangle 11ポイント12ポイント  (0子コメント)

I didn't see this posted anywhere, hopefully this is an appropriate place: http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/local/2015/10/02/coast-guard-loses-contact-with-container-ship-in-hurricane-joaquin/73203942/

[–]_supernovasky_Louisiana 3ポイント4ポイント  (11子コメント)

No turn northeast yet, even a bit northwest:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF306-1111A-JOAQUIN.png

[–]ECU_DrummerBest Carolina 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

The previous models predicted it to already be on a NE heading, correct?

I know nothing is safe to assume, but would this generally mean the track could continue it's shift to the west?

[–]_supernovasky_Louisiana 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's off course that's for sure

[–]Salsa-N-Chips 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

What am I looking at here?

[–]RuskiesInTheWarRoomFlorida 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

As I understand it, this is a chart of the actual path that the monitoring planes took through the storm in its most recent flight, measuring pressure & windspeed at the altitude of the plane ("flight-level")

So, it offers a sense of the storm as the plane crosses through the eye, in the diagonal direction, then cross to a corner, frames the storm north/south, and then diagonally crosses through the eye again.

When /u/_supernovasky_ says the storm may be tracking slightly north-WEST, he's referring to the path of the eye itself, which you can track by looking at the numbered orange dots in the center. The first reading is numbered 937, then 938, then up to 940. That path moves slightly northwest.

Now, I may be 100% incorrect, and this chart may be showing something else entirely, but that's what I believe this is.

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