4
5

BadEconomics Discussion Thread, 25 September 2015 (self.badeconomics)

AutoModerator[M] が 投稿 - stickied post

Welcome to the consolidated automated discussion thread. New threads will be posted every XX hours! You praxxed and we answered!

Chat about any bad (or good) economic events. Ask questions of the unpaid members. Remember to use the NP posts and whatnot.

全 27 件のコメント
並べ替え:
ベスト
トップ新着論争中古い順Q&A

[–]Jericho_Hill#StickyLivesMatter #OverthrowTheMods 10ポイント11ポイント  (10子コメント)

I really hate it how folks suddenly realize that they need something ASAP and then can't believe that i (economist) need time to actually model it right. "But its just a program you should be able to crank it out."

I almost praxxed out a number...just because

[–]CutlasssI am the Lord your Gold 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

Just remember the old saying "poor planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on my part."

[–]neshalchanderman 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

[You boss] needs me to run the monthly reports first. But let me just call him up and tell him you're running behind...

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

I need those TPC reports by tomorrow. Thanks.

[–]Homeboy_JesusCogito ergo sum equus 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

TPC TPS reports

Sorry, can't let that slide

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Upon entering the work force for a year, I learned that Office Space isn't actually a comedy. It's a documentary.

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Upon entering the work force for a year, I learned that Office Space isn't actually a comedy. It's a documentary.

[–]neshalchanderman 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Yeah.

[–]Jericho_Hill#StickyLivesMatter #OverthrowTheMods 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

I almost said "humans are horses". Sure.

Instead , I buckled down and pulled an 11 hour day . I do get credit time for those extra 3 hours and I didn't have to commute all week so, no problem there.

[–]neshalchanderman 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

If my ass is attached to a number, I'm partial to that number being right.

-- The Iron Law of CYA

[–]Jericho_Hill#StickyLivesMatter #OverthrowTheMods 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Caveat Everything

[–]neshalchanderman 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

What's the deal with France? Especially with it's unemployment situation The contrast with Germany is staggering.

[–]Grenshen4pxTwirling towards freedum!! 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartz_concept

Germany was actually the sick man of europe in the 90s as the cost of reunification became a drag on the german economy. The germans were more willing than the french to reform their economy.

The economic policies in france is more common with Scandinavian social-democracy. Higher regulations of the labor market, more welfare benefits, 35 hour workweek. And the french are known to berate Germany and the UK for being more market oriented with their economy. Saying that these "are not real jobs" and that the french would say their people would rather be on welfare and "wait for real jobs". Or in otherwords they think the jobs created in Germany and UK are not full-time and day that their willing to just wait out recessions. Which is somewhat true, lots of jobs created in Germany are minijobs were they get paid 400-500 euros a month and the government provides a little more if the person requires it. The low unemployment in germany as of current is not because of full time positions but the germans counter that they would rather their poor citizens be poor but employed. Compared to the french where their poor, unemployed and on welfare.

TLDR: the french and germans operate on different economic policies, due to the contrasting views on economic policy. Even the french center-right in order to get votes, actually is a little closer to the center-left than other center-right parties elsewhere.

[–]alexhoyerI used to bullseye Keynesians in my T-16 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Poor labor market policies mostly. Very high minimum wage, 35 hour work week, and excessively rigid contracts. It works well for insiders, but it's somewhat similar to Japan in that once you're out it's extremely hard to get back in.

[–]Aqwis 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

How much of an economic advantage does having famous, top-ranked universities give a country? Germany has very few or no universities that appear near the top of international university rankings, while the UK has many. Does this give the UK a real economic advantage compared to Germany? If so, where does the greatest effect come from: from the mere fact that those universities gain prestige from appearing near the top of highly rankings, which helps them attract the very brightest foreign students, or from actual differences in the quality of top UK universities vs top German universities, which makes UK graduates more skilled at their jobs?

[–]brauer1"Undergrad newbie" 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

There is some seriously badecon in this thread but am not knowledgable enough on the topic to do an R1 on it

[–]Homeboy_JesusCogito ergo sum equus 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ah I saw that one, I would recommend checking out SavannaJeff's /r/tradeissues for some inspiration.

Don't be afraid to go for an RI, you might get chewed up a bit by the regulars here but you'll be better for it.

[–]CutlasssI am the Lord your Gold 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

I love it when in these threads a question will get upvoted, but not answered...

[–]geerussell 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I upvoted your implicit question.

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

People ask pretty specialized questions. Wink wink

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

This variance in sticky posting time is causing my stick expectations to be less grounded. I cannot smooth my comments over time like I want.

MY UTILITY IS FALLING MODS. I DEMAND HICKSIAN COMPENSATION.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Attended a seminar yesterday on the 2012 NFL referee lockout. After reviewing the Fail Mary play and a careful empirical analysis, the result is that the temporary referees were no worse than the regular ones. The reason there were more "bad" calls was almost entirely just a regular observation of the first three weeks of any season.

So lucky for the referees, the fail mary (notorius bad call) raised media hype and led to a deal being negotiated with the refs.

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Wait, what? Really? It felt like there was so many bad calls. Did the seminar also look at wrongful no calls?

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

So the first issue is how to determine if a call is bad or not. This is the interesting part. The researchers didn't claim to be able to distinguish on an individual call basis. So the first empirical question was to find a way to measure the difference - specifically the diff-in-diff between the first three weeks of a season and the later weeks.

And to identify "bad" calls, the first issue was looking at the overall number of calls, accounting for play, YTD, first down, second, etc. and other factors describing the specific play. They then tested whether there was a difference in the overall number of calls. Some yes, some no. But when comparing this to the first three weeks of other seasons, not significant.

Then, to test whether these calls were "good" or "bad". The authors looked at the better markets. The idea being that bad calls should affect the relationship between the predicted and actual score (e.g. spread or total score). So the test was whether there was heteroskedasticity - did the variance increase between the predicted and realized values when the substitute refs were there. Nope.

So the thesis was that while there were some very visible bad calls which the media picked up on, statistically there was not. N=1 was giving a distorted picture.

Let me see if there is a link to it... nope, not online, but its under review.

[–]jambajuic3 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

To be fair, in many instances, the officials are not allowed to look at slow-mo videos in order to confirm the calls. They have to watch the videos at normal speed. It is actually a very difficult job. Just yesterday, NFL decided to make a game let the fans try and see what it would be like to review a call. You can check it out here.

http://operations.nfl.com/the-officials/inside-nfl-gameday-central/you-make-the-call/

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sports economics?

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

This Friday we're going to look at consumption, saving, and the life-cycle/permanent-income hypothesis. The key question: does consumption depend on current income a la Keynes or permanent income a la Friedman? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle? If the truth is in the middle, what weights should we attach to current vs permanent income? (And are those weights structural? Lucas is always looking over your shoulder!)

The first paper is Modigliani's Nobel Prize Lecture on "The life cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations," 1986.

The second paper is Carroll and Summers, "Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth," 1991.

Summers is probably a bit too harsh in his conclusions, but the pictures (especially Figures 10.7 and 10.8) are worth looking at.