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[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

GG Scott Sumner

So this was released.

Not sure what to think about it. I'd like to see how Breakeven Inflation fares (something I can do later in life in grad school!).

The only thing I can say is "1-year forecasts are more-or-less crap shoots".

Breakeven inflation picked up the actual deflation we had during the recession. SPF didn't.

FWIW, SPF didn't do jack all in my regressions for my senior thesis. BE Inf sorta did. One of the Fed branches has a cool data set that does even better. However they finagle expected inflation might be useful for predicting inflation.