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BadEconomics Discussion Thread, 21 September 2015 (self.badeconomics)

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[–]usrname42There is no God but Keynes, and Krugman is his prophet 8ポイント9ポイント  (3子コメント)

So the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and First Lord of the Treasury, the Right Honourable David Cameron MP, allegedly fucked a dead pig. (When at university)

British politics has gone insane over the past month.

[–]jambajuic3 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

This sounds somewhat similar to an episode in "Black Mirror". This is hilarious.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

But that was done to save a girl who had been kidnapped! Awesome episode.

[–]Baratheon_EconomistEverything is endogenous 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Lad.

[–]a_s_h_e_nA stable currency, like bitcoin 5ポイント6ポイント  (14子コメント)

as we near 6,000 subscribers (in sports subreddit terms, nearly the size of /r/MCFC) I must say that I'm almost happy that we've never experienced a badhistory-like explosion of numbers (50,000 atm).

Kinda suprising, I mean there have been a few SRD links here and there.

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's because we are reactionaries.

[–]VodkaHazereligion+gvt=economics 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

I think we're below our balanced growth path given the quality of content and popular interest there is for econ.

That said it'd be interesting to find out what factors create the BGP for subreddits. We have a pretty huge dataset on it, too.

[–]Lambchops_Legion 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

popular interest there is for econ.

But is there truly enough popular interest for people to challenge their priors or do they only want to confirm them and are willing to ignore the rest?

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

My priors tell me it's the latter, so I will only listen to evidence that confirms them and disregard anything that would challenge them.

[–]a_s_h_e_nA stable currency, like bitcoin 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think that's what VH means: BE is so small because it's very challenging to mainstream reddit's priors

[–]LithiumEnergyi don't have a fucking clue how economics works 0ポイント1ポイント  (8子コメント)

I subbed to listen to you guys, but I've vowed not to vote on comments since I have no idea whether it is right or wrong. I hope you could employ an restrictive voting system so people need to be validated before they can vote.

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 2ポイント3ポイント  (7子コメント)

I don't know if that's possible with reddit. And in general, I don't think we should do things to make this sub too exclusive or raise barriers to entry for those less familiar with economics. Doing so risks making this even more of an ivory tower. I've rarely seen bad economics get upvoted or good economics get downvoted here, so for now I think we can rely on self regulation (neoliberal shill confirmed) and the high levels of activity by regulars to prevent this sub from getting distorted.

[–]derpflapen 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

People are here because they are curious enough to have their previous beliefs potentially changed. Enough people have figured out that a lot of their daily lives are governed by things that economics is associated with, and so like anything people are curious about people want to learn about it for their own advantage.

Economics is just unique in the fact that people (secretly) agree that most people have no idea what it actually is, and if you want to learn it won't happen by spouting off like a complete idiot. Unless you drink too much.

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Sure, but it's possible to ask questions and more generally be a quality member of the sub without knowing a ton of economics so long as you have the right mindset; see /u/CatFortune for example.

[–]derpflapen -1ポイント0ポイント  (2子コメント)

"It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt."

[–]LithiumEnergyi don't have a fucking clue how economics works 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I disagree with this. I do want to ask questions and am happy to look a fool, because I learn.

[–]derpflapen 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

And so you ask questions so that those who don't want to don't have to. Thanks.

[–]VodkaHazereligion+gvt=economics 4ポイント5ポイント  (14子コメント)

Hey guys,

Wouldn't it be time we start, you know, writing the BE reader? Like start shared Google Docs between chapter collaborators, etc. We seem to have enough chapters to make a pretty big wiki. We can also vote on which chapters should get a write up and which should be hastily forgotten

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 3ポイント4ポイント  (12子コメント)

I did a big, big brainstorm about chapters and writing a book and its hidden somewhere on reddit. We can certainly start, but at the same time if we go forward with this we have to create an agreement about compensation, allow ourselves to no longer be anonymous and find ways to advertise (I.e. get /u/justinwolfers to respond to my comments again and promise to tweet about it).

We would have to find a publisher and stuff too. It's a lot more than just "hey let's write chapters".

We should also find examples (in the mainstream media, maybe) not on reddit that we can point to as bad economics beliefs held by the public.

I'd love to write a chapter on reasoning from price level changes, but there's a lot more than just chapter writing here.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Pay everyone in bitcoin! That way your payment will appreciate over time!

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Agreed. While I'd love to contribute (especially on something re monetary policy if you and Integralds are busy), losing anonymity on this account and having my say_wot_again comments, especially on more divisive topics, be linked to my real identity is a major worry. And splitting compensation between contributors is far from trivial; if only there were some academic discipline that could give us some insight in how to divide money in a fair and efficient way...

[–]Homeboy_JesusCogito ergo sum equus 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

If only there were some academic discipline...

That's a pipe dream at best!

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

We'd probably have to agree on a lawyer. That won't be cheap. I've found some cookie cutter agreements between multiple contributers online.

I dont want to lose anonymity either (I don't mind my name on a book, especially if it blows up, but I'd have to delete this account), and I don't know how undergraduates writing chapters would go over well in the public. IMO, the PhDs/PhD students would have to be the face of the book, which leaves guys like me in an "RA" position who basically becomes a footnote.

For example, Inty would be the "author" of the macro section and you and I would be "oh yeah these guys helped contribute".

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I don't know how undergraduates writing chapters would go over well in the public. IMO, the PhDs/PhD students would have to be the face of the book, which leaves guys like me in an "RA" position who basically becomes a footnote.

For example, Inty would be the "author" of the macro section and you and I would be "oh yeah these guys helped contribute".

I hadn't even thought of that. At least you'll be pursuing an advanced degree and working in the industry.

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I hadn't even thought of that. At least you'll be pursuing an advanced degree and working in the industry.

I'm very aware of my degree not meaning much. I have been told that "my college professors only tell you one side of the story" as if I have a degree in reguritating information on a test.

I'm not exactly "in the industry" though hopefully I'll get an advanced degree.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I never commented on that, sorry!

but there's a lot more than just chapter writing here.

Yeah. I haven't commented in the open thread, but right now it's way too grab-baggy. Who is our audience? What is our message? How do the arguments fit together?

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Don't worry about not commenting. I put more time into job search anyway.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

But could you go back to vodkahaze statment and do a google doc or wiki that is less serious and more just heres the basic run down of these items from the BE point of view?

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

We could yeah. We want to keep it rather private though.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Make it a google doc only shared on request? You have to know about it to know about it kind of thing

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sure we can think about doing that.

I am hesitant to move forward on this - for now anyway.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Assign residual claimancy to avoid the tragedy of the commons!

[–]Baratheon_EconomistEverything is endogenous 3ポイント4ポイント  (21子コメント)

So I was wondering what a nice, contentious, political question would be to throw at this sub and see what happens. And I got one:

Israel, or Palestine?

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

Nopenopenopenope

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

From a cost benefit analysis... they should be able to Coasean bargain and reach some efficient solution, regardless of the UN resolution on Palestine. We just need to define the rights.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

This is the subject of my final paper in a junior year International Relations class.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

OK, let's see how this could work with a numerical example. Let the payoffs from war be normalized to 0 for each side. Peace is worth 100 to P and 90 to I. With equal bargaining powers, then the outcome suggests I pays P 5 for peace.

Asymmetric information would weaken this result. As does the fact that there are multiple leaders. It would be in I's interest for example to specifically elect a far right parliament and PM/President to establish a stronger bargaining position. This of course would imply bargaining may break down with a positive probability.

[–]theJalden 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

It was probably a bad idea to create the state of Israel in the first place. If the Jewish people had to have a state they should have put it where people didn't already live, like Wyoming or something.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

like Wyoming or something.

You mean like Sitka, Alaska!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Yiddish_Policemen%27s_Union

[–]Tiakoneo-mercantilist 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Many of Israel's security measures are counter productive in the long term. Of course this is true of Palestinians as well, but the nature of Palestinian politics means Israel will need to take the first step.

[–]jambajuic3 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Ideologically, I support Israel recognizing Palestine's independence and sovereignty. Israel should remove their settlements and give the land back to Palestine. However, realistically, Israel is too important of an ally in an unstable region for the U.S. to go against. Plus, Israel doesn't want a group such as Hamas to be so close to their borders and I understand their fears/concerns.

Ideally I would like for Palestine to denounce Hamas and for Israel to initiate peace talks. If the independence can grow organically, it would lead to healthier relations between the two countries in the future. Unless Israel starts a genocide, I don't think it would be a good idea to have international intervention.

[–]mosestrodland of the blind. the economist is king. 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Israel is too important of an ally in an unstable region for the U.S. to go against.

The US has loads of allies in the region. The Israeli reliance on US aid, a leash so to speak, is one of the reasons Israel didn't just "go mad" and wipe out the west bank during the second intifada (though of course they did "go pretty mad"). Especially with the rise of ISIS Israel's relative importance as an ally for the USA is declining as the likes of Iran is rising. Israel will thus need to re-engergise their national narrative as a 'western democracy relentlessly under threat from barbaric arab neighbours', probably by engineering a new conflict with the Palestinians and playing the victim. Recent events in Jerusalem semi-support this view.

Israel doesn't want a group such as Hamas

interesting to note Israel created Hamas, similar to the USA viz. the rise of Islamism in general. Between 1967 and the first intifada Israel supported the Muslim Brotherhood and later Hamas through the encouraged construction of Mosques and a support for their activities at the same time as the PLO (opponents of Hamas) and other secular and Marxist-Leninist organisations were suppressed (i.e. PFLP). The idea was that Islamist groups who were traditionally less hostile to Israel would act as a counterweight to the traditionally secular and left-wing monopoly on the Palestine liberation struggle.

[–]jambajuic3 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

The US has loads of allies in the region.

Other than the three I listed, who else would be considered a major ally of the U.S. in the region? Closest I would say is Egypt and Pakistan, but Egypt has plenty of internal problems to worry about right now. And Pakistan is not someone U.S wants to maintain as an ally. Especially now that U.S. - India relations are starting to dramatically improve.

Especially with the rise of ISIS Israel's relative importance as an ally for the USA is declining as the likes of Iran is rising

I do agree that our relations with Iran will improve (Iran Nuclear deal is a great step forward). I also agree that improving relations with Iran leads to reduced dependence on Israel. However, currently, we very much depend on Israel. Iran is nowhere near enough for us to call them an "ally". This will take decades and might even require Iran to be a free country devoid of the influence of the Ayatollah.

Plus, why do you think that Israel will do nothing to assist us against ISIS? From what I understand, one of the reasons why US gave so much military aid to Israel was to act as a counter to the USSR backed Syria. ISIS is a threat to Israel and Israel will act accordingly.

... probably by engineering a new conflict with the Palestines and playing the victim.

If Israel engineers a conflict between them and Palestine, the international community would not be happy. Israel already lost a lot of respect around the world after the bombing campaign they had 1-2 years ago against Palestine.

Israel created Hamas

By the way, thanks for the info about the history of Hamas. I didn't know about it and I will read more about. But, correct me if I'm wrong, even if Israel helped in the creation of Hamas, it doesn't negate the fact that today, Israel does not want Hamas near them at all. They would like to see Hamas destroyed. It might be unfair, but both sides will need to make concessions in order for peace talks to happen. Israel will need to remove their settlements and give the land back to Palestine. In return, Palestine will need to denounce Hamas and elect peaceful officials.

I just don't see the Israeli public and politicians agreeing to give up the settlements without the destruction of the militant forces.

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The US would have had more allies had we not meddled in the affairs of sovereign governments (and had we not supported the English giving colonized land to European Jews).

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 1ポイント2ポイント  (7子コメント)

From a libertarian standpoint, Israel has no right to existence as they are occupying Palestinian land.

That being said Israel exists and it won't go away any time soon. In light of that, Israel should heavily offset their occupation via transfers and not encroaching on their land.

Religious Zionism is important but political Zionism has been destructive and has basically turned into apartheid.

[–]Baratheon_EconomistEverything is endogenous 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

From a libertarian standpoint

I'd have expected a libertarian to take the opposite position, given the authority Hamas holds over Palestinian territory.

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Hamas is blowback. It'd be like Native Americans attacking American settlers (which did happen).

Hamas is awful but the Israeli government is no better.

[–]jambajuic3 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Does any country have a right to existence then? I don't think a country's right to existence should be based on historical relevance. I think it should be based on recognition.

In this case, however, the vast majority of the world powers recognize Palestine as a country. Sadly, the two countries that do matter, U.S and Israel, don't recognize it.

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Does any country have a right to existence then? I don't think a country's right to existence should be based on historical relevance. I think it should be based on recognition.

To an extent, yes. People have a right to form governments. But they don't have a right to go to previously held land, invade it, take it by force and then oppress the people there.

In this case, however, the vast majority of the world powers recognize Palestine as a country.

And? Do they come to their aid militarily when Israel bulldozes the homes of Palestinian people? No. There is no protection afforded to that country.

Furthermore, we cannot just ignore the fact that Israel exists thanks to colonialism. Americans, and all former colonial nations, should hate that and support Palestine.

Sadly, the two countries that do matter, U.S and Israel, don't recognize it.

[–]Polisskolan2 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

To an extent, yes. People have a right to form governments. But they don't have a right to go to previously held land, invade it, take it by force and then oppress the people there.

Wait, is it even possible to form a government without having it invade land owned by other people and oppress them (or at least force them into submission)?

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes. I dont see how people cannot form governments voluntarily.

And governments will form regardless. But after they exist, what rights do those people and governments have?

England colonized Palestine. England then gave Palestinian land to European Jews. That is not moral from a libertarian standpoint.

[–]mosestrodland of the blind. the economist is king. 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

interesting to look at the economic relations between the two

[–]Polisskolan2 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

From a different libertarian standpoint, neither Israel nor Palestine has any right to exist. Israelites have the right to settle unused land, but they don't have the right to drive Palestinians off the land they use. I am pro-Palestinian and pro-Israelite, but against Israel and Palestine.

[–]a_s_h_e_nA stable currency, like bitcoin 2ポイント3ポイント  (9子コメント)

sorry if I'm out of the loop on this, but what's the stance on Fiorina?

the only thing under her "economy" wiki is that she thinks the stimulus was a bad idea, and her website is a shiny mess of nonsense.

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 2ポイント3ポイント  (6子コメント)

She's kinda BE, she wants to double the size of the military and she ran HP into the ground. Probably won't get the BE seal of approval.

Kasich might get the BE seal of approval, but we've not seen the DNC debates yet. Kasich is also basically a RINO so he won't get the Republican nomination, probably, since old, scared, overly religious white horses people have huge sway in the Republican primaries.

[–]a_s_h_e_nA stable currency, like bitcoin 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

oh yeah, I like Kasich far too much for him to actually get the Republican nomination

[–]JPelter 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Can Kasich effectively wield the God card and dig in as a Republican while still being somewhat moderate is the question really.

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

And can he do it without becoming a caricature of himself a la 2012 Romney?

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Maybe. But he's already said that he sort of supports gay marriage (makes the "love people regardless" argument) and that he had no qualms about taking government money to support Medicare (Ohio faced a serious deficit so I don't blame him). So two strikes against the religious right already.

[–]arktouros 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

What about Mr. Paul?

[–]wumbotarianmodeled as if Noah Smith was a can opener 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Lol no

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

College students who plan to go into business often major in economics, but few believe that they will end up using what they hear in the lecture hall. Those students understand a fundamental truth: What they learn in economics courses won't help them run a business.

The converse is also true: What people learn from running a business won't help them formulate economic policy. A country is not a big corporation. The hahits of mind that make a great business leader are not, in general, those that make a great economic analyst; an executive who has made $1 billion is rarely the right person to turn to for advice about a $6 trillion economy.

Why should that be pointed out? After all, neither businesspeople nor economists are usually very good poets, but so what? Yet many people (not least successful business executives themselves) believe that someone who has made a personal fortune will know how to make an entire nation more prosperous. In fact, his or her advice is often disastrously misguided.

https://alvaroaltamirano.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/krugman_a-country-is-not-a-company.pdf

[–]a_s_h_e_nA stable currency, like bitcoin 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

oooh perfect, especially re: trade as it is discussed in the debates

[–]earnbabyearnDefinitely not /u/urnbabyurn 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Reposting this from the previous thread. What exactly do we mean when we refer to international capital movements? If we mean just financial capital (dollars/euros/yen/whatever), why is it a big deal? Isn't the supply of financial capital limited only by the central bank? And if we mean real capital, how does it work when a Western company builds a factory in a developing country? Presumably they're not importing all the resources, so most of the resources and labor that go into that capital are coming from within the nation; in what sense is that capital then coming from abroad?

[–]FatBabyGiraffeWhat do you want it to be? 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Because its using resources (money, human capital, time) that could be used in the domestic market.

[–]___OccamsChainsaw___Nietzsche Understands You 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

I few months ago I remember reading on here, or maybe /r/economics, that having both a modest NIT and a modest minimum wage would be less distortionary than a larger version of either. The comment was sourced. I wouldn't ask but that I can't find it again. I think it was /u/besttrousers who said it but I don't remember. Is that a thing?

[–]no_malis 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

In Canada one of the parties has proposed subsidizing daycare to 15$/day (currently around 30/day in most places I think). Any thoughts on potential impact?

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

In general I don't like subsidizing things that don't have positive externalities. Basically, if daycare is only good for the people who use it, why is subsidized daycare better than just lowering taxes, or giving them a cash transfer? Then they could buy daycare if they want to, or whatever else they need.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

So I keep hearing about how hemp is the god of all products and the only reason it hasn't taken over the world is because GOVMENT GRRRR!!!!

My agrument against it is that if it was so great than all of our enemies would have been using it to undercut us economically. Is this false logic on my part or is hemp really overhyped?