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BadEconomics Discussion Thread, 19 September 2015 (self.badeconomics)

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[–]laboreconomist3favorite words: labor, unemployment, trade 24ポイント25ポイント  (21子コメント)

I think /r/europe has taken the prize as my least favorite sub. Sure the anti-trade rhetoric is bad but at least no one is dying from it. The whole let me quote a couple of uncontextualizd lines from Borjas to justify my xenophobia of people fleeing war torn areas is legitimately infuriating. People are actually dying because you and the demagogues you elect refuse to accept that the belief that migration might marginally lower your standard of living is as baseless as it is callous.

[–]ShootingAnElephantCry Mises and let slip the prax of war 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's gotten pretty horrible these past few months. Last time I looked there were only like four non-immigration related posts on the front page. And even insinuating that immigration might not be that bad will get you downvotes. I got downvoted for saying that in some cases we are mandated by international law to take in refugees at least until their status can be decided.

Yet many of them claim that they are just defending liberal values against muslims, who oppose our western way of living, while at the same time they virtually spit on the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the 1951 refugee convention, both of which I regard as some the greatest achievements of human civilization in the last century.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

Don't go to /r/european by mistake then.

[–]discoFalston -1ポイント0ポイント  (15子コメント)

Question:

Every one is better off from free trade, but can a trade deals be bad enough to the point where one or both parties being worse off? Anything in history that fits this description?

[–]complexsystemsMWG is my homeboy 7ポイント8ポイント  (2子コメント)

It is always possible to construct situations where trade makes everyone worse off. Here is an example from the Standup Economist

Consider a small town with three families: Family #1 wants a snowblower, Family #2 wants a leafblower, and Family #3 wants a lawnmower; each family values their particular need at $200. It also just so happens that Family #1 owns a leafblower, Family #2 owns a lawnmower, and Family #3 owns a snowblower. These sit unused in their respective garages; each family has no use for its current equipment, and therefore values it at $0. The situation appears ripe for gains from trade!

Unfortunately, life in this small town is not so simple: the town is located in a valley that is susceptible to severe air pollution problems. Blowers and mowers emit so much pollution that use of any one piece of equipment will increase hospital bills (for asthma &etc) by $80 for each family. Three additional blowers and mowers will therefore increase each family's bills by $240.

Result #1: All three trades will still take place. For example, if Family #3 sells Family #1 its snowblower for $100 then each family gains $100 from the trade, minus $80 in hospital bills, for a net gain of $20.

Result #2: The three trades together make everyone worse off: if each family sells its unused equipment for $100 and buys its desired equipment for $100 then each family gains $200 from its trades. But each family lose $240 in hospital bills, for a net loss of $40. Conclusion: Trade can make everyone worse off!

But I'm not a trade economist, so I don't know much of the empirical literature there.

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 11ポイント12ポイント  (1子コメント)

But that's an issue of externalities. Other than environmental pollution, which is nontrivial, I find it hard to believe that any pair of countries could produce negative externalities to the other countries in a trade deal.

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Also, that the best case solution is to allow trade and handle the negative externalities in some way. Like a pigovian tax.

[–]laboreconomist3favorite words: labor, unemployment, trade 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

There is the example of India in the 19th century, but that is more of a lesson about how colonialism is economically ruinous for the colony but not the colonizer. Moreover, unilateral trade liberalization during the British Raj says little about trade making both parties worse off which would require an contrived model involving some kind of negative externalities from trade. Perhaps this helps explain why environmentalists are so often the staunchest opponents to modern trade agreements.

It also turns out Marx wasn't wrong about everything.

[–]Lambchops_Legion 4ポイント5ポイント  (10子コメント)

No then the trade deal wouldn't materialize in the first place.

[–]UmmahSultan 9ポイント10ポイント  (8子コメント)

Implicit in asking this question on Reddit is the assumption that all parties are really controlled by a vast conspiracy of evildoers.

[–]discoFalston 1ポイント2ポイント  (7子コメント)

Ha yeah, I should mention I'm not a Bernie-bot, this is more of a theoretical question to help me understand the concept by looking at it from the other end, if that makes sense

[–]Lambchops_Legion 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Read this

An introductory economics course should drive home to students the point that international trade is not about competition, it is about mutually beneficial exchange. Even more fundamentally, we should be able to teach students that imports, not exports, are the purpose of trade. That is, what a country gains from trade is the ability to import things it wants. Exports are not an objective in and of themselves: the need to export is a burden that a country must bear because its import suppliers are crass enough to demand payment.

[–]UmmahSultan 0ポイント1ポイント  (5子コメント)

FYI Sanders' stated belief that too many choices in deodorant causes child hunger is also wrong. There's a reason why he gets zero support outside of rich white Vermonters and college students, and it's not because the sheeple are too confounded by propaganda by the "international bankers" running the media to appreciate the worthiness of his positions.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 3ポイント4ポイント  (4子コメント)

Sanders' stated belief that too many choices in deodorant causes child hunger is also wrong.

I don't believe he ever made that causal link.

[–]UmmahSultan 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

The actual quote:

You can't just continue growth for the sake of growth in a world in which we are struggling with climate change and all kinds of environmental problems. All right? You don't necessarily need a choice of 23 underarm spray deodorants or of 18 different pairs of sneakers when children are hungry in this country. I don't think the media appreciates the kind of stress that ordinary Americans are working on.

Either too many choices of deodorant represents a misallocation of resources that causes child hunger, or it's a non-sequitur. Bernie Sanders is clearly saying that our society chose to make many different kinds of deodorant rather than feed children (due to the evils of capitalism).

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

No, it's a statement about values and priorities, not a causal link.

[–]UmmahSultan 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

The only reason those values are supposedly in conflict is a lack of understanding of the economy. We need good jobs (which may indeed be in a deodorant factory), not subsistence farming.

[–]discoFalston 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

You would hope so yeah, the actual trade part isn't so much what I'm inquiring about so much as the supplementary policies that go into the deal, like patent protection.

"How does something like patent protection effect the net gain or loss from a trade deal?" would be a more specific question.

[–]NewmanTheScofflawthe mail never stops 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Europe is reminding people of Europe 60 years ago. It's not going to be good for their public image.

2070

America: "What are we, a bunch of Europeans"

Canada: "No, we aren't nearly as racist in a crisis"

(the worst case scenario )

[–]strayadviceAncap Warning!!! 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I get the economic benefits of migration. But is it not true that large scale cultural shifts would change social expectations, thence political outcomes? Considering things like the median voter (and public opinion in general) is a strong indicator of political outcome?

[–]andersbender 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I've felt the same way.. doesn't make me feel proud to be European

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 12ポイント13ポイント  (5子コメント)

Fuck y'all, I'm first. New sticky will now come out about every 48 hours.

[–]0729370220937022I have flair-writers block 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Have you considered having the discussion threads sort by new? I think you did it once before and it seemed to work a lot better.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I've been manually changing it about half the time. I keep forgetting to change the default sorting for the sticky though.

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

And yet the sticky says 46...

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

About 48... Makes it harder to guess he time.

[–]complexsystemsMWG is my homeboy 9ポイント10ポイント  (3子コメント)

Sticky hyperinflation is here to stay. Clearly Yellen needs to raise interest rates to curb it.

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

Didn't you hear? Yellen literally admitted that rates could stay zero, FOREVER!!!!!! The smoking gun:

So, I would be very-- I would be very surprised if [never escaping from the ZLB is] the case. That is not the way I see the outlook or the way the committee sees the outlook. Can I completely rule it out? I can't completely rule it out. But really that's an extreme downside risk that in no way is near the center of my outlook.

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

My poor shoes.

[–]arktouros 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

If only these discussion threads were on the gold standard, we wouldn't ever have to worry about thread hyperinflation.

[–]Baratheon_EconomistEverything is endogenous 5ポイント6ポイント  (9子コメント)

Thoughts on Bernie in this clip?

Also: Who's your favourite for the GOP nomination? I ask about the Republicans because the Democratic race just seems dead in the water, at the moment.

[–]postironicirony 10ポイント11ポイント  (3子コメント)

Foreign policy is one of the areas where the executive has massive leeway and the recent debate made most of the field look like fucking lunatics. Fiorina went off about rebuilding 6th fleet or some other insanity. Carson wants to unilaterally back Netanyahu. Bush apparently sees no issues with his brother's foreign policy. When Lindsey Graham has one of the least hawkish and most nuanced positions with Iranian relations out of all the candidates there is something horribly wrong.

I didn't count Rand Paul in this because I'm sure given enough time to speak on the matter he'd bring up something similar to not supporting the civil rights act.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Don't you know thats thier jobs plan. Nuclear warfare with Russia, Iran, and North Korea plus China if its trumpy

[–]MoneyChurchChairman of the Kennywood Park Central Bank 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

Look at all the jobs!

[–]Kai_Daigoji 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Broken windows for all!

[–]Kelsig 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

All the GOP terrify me. Maybe Bush, Kashich, or Rubio the least?

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I guess I admire his ability to own up to his ideas. No dancing around.

I do not want him to be our president, but he owns up to his ideas, which is respectable.

[–]Baratheon_EconomistEverything is endogenous 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

I'd say he danced around; or that he's incapable of nuance. He didn't really say anything of substance.

Wanting universal healthcare and the government to not incessantly represent the interests of the rich doesn't really make you a progressive, and certainly not a socialist.

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

I should clarify I think he doesn't dance around compared to other politicians as much (compare him to Trump). He at least says policies he wants. No vague "make america great again." He is definitely vague compared to say, an economist talking about policy.

[–]Classically_Liberal2Reactionary Shill 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Favorites: Paul (I'm sorry badecon), Kasich

Considering: Fiorina (I need to see some policy proposals from her before deciding)

Nobody else could get my vote without substantial shifts to a more libertarian position (on non-economic issues), so even though I probably sound like a Rubio shill at times, I don't see myself supporting him.

[–]MattStalfs 4ポイント5ポイント  (2子コメント)

So I had this idea for an undergraduate thesis and I was wondering if I could get some feedback on this idea, see if you guys found it interesting.

I'm wondering if there are certain situations where going to community college for two years and then transfering to university would actually cost more money in the long run. My prax goes like this:

  1. Universities open up students to more connections in industry or acedmia.

  2. If one wants to go into academia or an industry that weighs recommendations from professors or other insiders typically not found in community college but often found in university, then the connections found at university are invaluable.

  3. In a situation such as the described, though the upfront cost is higher, it may be more beneficial in the long run to go to university because of the networking options provided.

Thoughts?

[–]Babahoyo 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

that seems like a decent idea. It would be hard to find a data set for it though.

[–]MattStalfs 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah I was thinking about contrasting the incomes of people who work in the same field but went to community college vs university. I would still need to do a lot of work refining that to exclude any extraneous variables.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 7ポイント8ポイント  (7子コメント)

Ok I know this isn't economics but i need to vent.

I'm getting really freaking tired of all the jackass nuclear supporters on either side who say its such a great thing, it will get us off foriegn oil, its cheaper than X, its got no down sides!

First oil and nuclear power have almost nothing to do with each other and in no way shape or form effect the price of each other. Unless they are going to start making toyta corollas nuclear powered they will have nothing to do with the amount of oil we do or don't import.

Second if it was that freaking cheap economically people would be pumping out these facilities everywhere. Theres a problem they have massive build costs and thier operations costs grow more and more especially when you acocunt for security and waste disposal and final decommisioning. These things go over budget during construction constantly and run behind schedule more often than not.

They do have a great safety record but they have scared the living crap out of so many people that no one wants one anywhere near them, this makes it almost impossible to build any new reactors.

Rant over

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 10ポイント11ポイント  (1子コメント)

In fairness, government regulations also help prevent the building of new nuclear power plants. And nuclear (and solar, and wind) aren't replacements for oil but replacements for coal and natural gas for electricity generation, which is still very major.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I agree there is some regualtory things that stand in the way but most of it falls down to its hugely expensive and no one wants them near them.

I totally agree with your last statement but its not what people say and it pisses me off as an energy nerd

[–]geerussell 2ポイント3ポイント  (4子コメント)

First oil and nuclear power have almost nothing to do with each other and in no way shape or form effect the price of each other. Unless they are going to start making toyta corollas nuclear powered they will have nothing to do with the amount of oil we do or don't import.

Wouldn't electric vehicles count as ______-powered where you pencil in whatever feeds the grid, including nuclear?

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced -1ポイント0ポイント  (3子コメント)

Thats such a small minority of vehicles that it would be like saying the New Zealand army effects what the American army does

[–]geerussell 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

Right, it's small now. Unless I read you wrong though, your argument went: Nuclear power as a way to get us off of oil is a jackass argument because cars lock us into oil consumption. That automakers are putting real resources into EV development seems sufficient to at least upgrade it from "jackass" to "debatable" argument about the future.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

But the argument is normally in reference to getting us off foreign oil now. I see your point and long term like 20+ years it could be a valid point but if wind and solar keep getting better and cheaper than nuclear still has no leg to stand on even there

[–]geerussell 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

Reminds me of the old saying about the two best times to plant a tree: 20 years ago, or today.

[–]511neverforget 3ポイント4ポイント  (10子コメント)

What are the economic implications of the mass immigration in Europe right now? There are so many arguments on both sides of the issue so most discussions tend to get dumb fast, but im curious to what you guys have to say about it.

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 9ポイント10ポイント  (8子コメント)

Short run costs, long run benefits, as seen in previous European countries accepting Muslim refugees. This study found the benefits for low-skilled native Denmark workers took 13 years to materialize.

[–]bdubs91Maestro Today and Maestro Forever 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I realize that this evidence is a more apples to apples comparison, but what of Borjas's work showing that low skill immigrants in America lowered high school drop outs wages?

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

Borjas (1994) and Friedberg and Hunt (1995) [see Kerr&Kerr for citations] surveyed wage displacement effects until the early 1990s. Kerr & Kerr (2011) provides a survey of the same for the years since then and finds the reported wage displacement elasticities to be small clustered around zero. FH and other meta-studies also found little impact on native wages for the earlier periods:

overall, their survey of the earlier literature found that a 10% increase in the immigrant share of the labor force reduced native wages by about 1%. Recent meta-surveys by Longhi et al. (2005, 2008) and Okkerse (2008) found comparable, small effects across many studies.

I'm unsure what the Borjas survey found.

Borjas' empirical study is one of many in the wider literature. More recent work finds that, for instance, foreign STEM workers are associated with small wage increases for non-college educated workers, but obviously those aren't unskilled immigrants. Another study which gained attention in the news found that immigrants, by adding to demand, can create 1.2 jobs for local workers. Unlike the Denmark study I linked above, I haven't checked for the exact reported time it takes for the benefits to materialize in these recent studies.

Edit: Oops. I didn't link to Kerr & Kerr (2011). Fixed.

[–]511neverforget 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thanks for the insightful answers

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Yay, a study about Denmark. The country where sigh the second biggest party wants us to close the border

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

Please. Maybe they can play in the big leagues once they call all immigrants from a certain country rapists.

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

Please. Trump can get in the big leagues when he says (no joke, members of the Folketing actually said this) "The German soldiers on our streets behaved better than the Muslim boys. The soldiers were well-disciplined, young German boys". Or maybe "Lars Hedegaard of course shouldn't have said that there are Muslim dads that rapes their daughters, when the truth is they settle for killing them. And turn the bind eye to the uncles raping them". Or maybe just share this, like a guy running for a seat in the city council in the second biggest city

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

By "German soldiers" do they mean the Nazis?

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yup. Either that or the Prussians in 1864, but I don't think the occupied Denmark, as much as they rolled in, took Nothern Germany and rolled out again

[–]smurfyjenkins 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm not an economist (just as interested observer) but here are some economic implications:

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 9ポイント10ポイント  (3子コメント)

DAE COLONEL FEEL THE BERN SANDERS IS THE BAD ECONOMIX??!!

[–]0729370220937022I have flair-writers block 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Honestly I feel he is pretty average in terms of bad economics. This sub just talks about him because reddit talks about him. Also some of his supporters are a little too fanatic about him which can get anoying quick.

[–]ReallyLegitX 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I feel like some of his more rabid supporters are inadvertently working against him. I have nothing against Bernie aside from some of his less appealing ideals, but the reddit circlejerk over him is slowly making me not like him.

[–]commentsrusBring maymayday back! 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

I'm on track with the coursework, but is there anything else I should be doing in my 1st year as an econ PhD?

I couldn't get an RA or TA position this Fall. I'm meeting veteran students, faculty, etc. slowly but surely. I've met my entire cohort and we're all friends and whathaveyou. Am I missing something? I feel like I'm missing something.

Also, is it possible to get a TA position next semester if I didn't have one now?

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Also, is it possible to get a TA position next semester if I didn't have one now?

How would we know? Ask the program chair. My department would make offers to people in the winter for various reasons - people leave their position for another, people drop out, new classes need instructors, etc. Most who get positions in the fall are guaranteed for the entire year though. So you won't get one of their spots until next academic year unless they leave them.

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

How are you getting funding now? Where I am, funding comes from RA/TA employment. If you're being funded right now and don't have TA responsibilities, that's a gift to be cherished.

As for "what to do" -- you know the drill. Form a study group. Keep your head above water in your classes. Go into comp mode starting in January. Find a 3rd-year student in your field who seems to know what they're doing and ask them about what to do in the second year. Find a fifth-year student in your field who seems to know what they're doing and ask them about what to do in the third and fourth years.

[–]ocamlmycamli <3 central planning 2ポイント3ポイント  (6子コメント)

I have to learn options for work. Anybody have good references on textbooks or papers to read? I know what put call parity is and that's about it.

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

My undergrad degree didn't really emphasize that; they were optional.

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Black-Scholes. It is a pretty useful tool in pricing vanilla options, and from that exotic options, if you can figure out how to hedge it.

I actually think that's about it, working from my Financing course I had a year ago. Put-call parity, Black-Scholes and hedging. Maybe a 2-period model to price a European option (That's the one where you only can exercise at one specified day, right?), but that's pretty intuitive

[–]StanleyPierce13 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Are these (1, 2) the sort of things you're looking for?

[–]ocamlmycamli <3 central planning 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

That looks pretty good, thanks! Do you happen to have a similar resource for continuous time as well?

[–]ivansmlhotshot with a theory 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I have to learn options for work. Anybody have good references on textbooks or papers to read? I know what put call parity is and that's about it.

There are lots of textbooks on options and derivatives pricing, from various perspectives. Some of the more popular:

  • Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives by Hull is standard introductory reference (MBA level, lots of background, relatively easy math, long).

  • Shreve: Stochastic Calculus for Finance covers mathematics behind continuous time processes and no-arbitrage pricing quite extensively.

  • Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory by Duffie is short, concise, and more related to economic theory, but also very mathematical and pretty much unreadable.

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

To add to the above suggestions:

  1. Cochrane's Asset Pricing has two chapters on option pricing.

  2. Cochrane's lecture note on investments also has a chapter on options.

Though take those with a grain of salt because I don't really do finance.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Since states don't print thier own currency is it required for them to have balanced budgets or minor budget deficits vs the federal level where large deficits should be avoided but can be absorbed due to the ability to control thier own currency?

[–]100centuriesTo QE #∞ and beyond 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I read somewhere that 49 out of the 50 have a (state) constitutional requirement to present a balanced budget.

[–]EveRommelDAY TUK UR JOBZ, didn't want it anyways, already replaced 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

That could simply mean that 49 out of 50 states are idiots

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

The federal government can never be forced into default because it borrows in a currency it can always print more of. The states, much like Greece or foreign countries that have lots of dollar denominated debt, can be forced into default, so persistent large deficits are not as sustainable as for the US, Japan, etc. Of course, the federal government could always bail out states who get into too much debt and party like it's 1789, but that's a separate issue altogether, and at that point those state deficits have become federal deficits.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Dunno if anyone here is into political betting, but check out these odds on Sanders winning the D nomination. Time to stock up on No shares!

[–]Kai_Daigoji 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Is it wrong that I want to post this in a thread on /r/SandersForPresident, see if they'll overvalue it more?

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

... I feel like there have to be legal consequences or... something I'm not seeing. Cause that sounds like a fantastic idea but I have a nagging feeling it's not for some reason.

[–]ReallyLegitX 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Posting it there seems harmless enough, almost like a BE pump and dump but with more Sanders instead of penny stocks.

[–]Babahoyo 0ポイント1ポイント  (10子コメント)

Undergrads: What class are you most excited about this semester?

mine is international development. I think we are going to start to get into the nitty gritty of how hard it is to measure anything or know anything.

[–]UpsideVII 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Most definitely PhD econometrics. I enjoyed the undergrad econometrics, but it went ridiculously slowly and didn't go into anything very deeply. I'm sure this will go faster. On the downside, it's at 8am four days a week :(

[–]Babahoyo 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

lol im in undergrad econometrics right now. Lectures seem pretty boring and I'm not sure how much we will do that wasn't in introductory stats.

That class time and the amount of classes is a main reason I don't want to take a grad level econ course next year.

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Operation research. I had Linear and Integer Programming last semester, but the professor managed to make a pretty interesting subject really boring. Also LP problems are a really limited set of problems and I think expanding it will be very interesting.

Also, Probability theory. I can see myself working with some pretty math-y economic subjects and knowing probability theory will probably help me there. Also, the professor is really funny.

[–]MichaelExe 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Measure theory is really cool. Both very deep (axiom of choice, measurable and non-measurable sets and Banach-Tarski) and useful (foundations of probability theory). Measures generalize both discrete and continuous probability distributions.

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Yeah, but when I had measure theory, I just struggled to keep my head above water. It almost felt like I was lacking some basic knowledge to really understand it, which would make sense, because I took it with theoretical mathematicians a year ahead of me. In comparison, probability theory seems easy, which might be because I've got a TA position in intro to stats, which, so far, as touched many of the same subjects, just in a more calculation-heavy way, rather than the proof-heavy probability theory

[–]MichaelExe 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Measure theory is not something easy to jump into. I took it in my 4th year, majoring in math, after already haven taken set theory and a couple real analysis courses before it, covering metric spaces and the Lebesgue measure. The course with Lebesgue measure was a big wake-up call; math was kind of easy (straightforward) until then, after getting past first year.

[–]MoneyChurchChairman of the Kennywood Park Central Bank 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

I'm excited to get classes, since I got screwed over by the course request system. But I'm hoping for law and economics

[–]Babahoyo 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think my uni has that. I should take it

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Law and econ was one of my favorite classes in grad school. I was very close to going to law school myself, even got an LSAT prep book and everything. I think you'll like it.

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I almost went the law route as well; too bad there are no jobs. This is not a starting salary distribution I'd like to face after taking out debt to finance three years of legal education.

[–]MichaelExe 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's been discussed before (e.g. here and here, but the papers seem a bit older), but were NAFTA and free trade with China bad for the US?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/12/nafta-job-loss-trade-deficit-epi_n_859983.html

(the paper: http://epi.3cdn.net/fdade52b876e04793b_7fm6ivz2y.pdf)

http://www.epi.org/publication/counting_the_jobs_lost_to_china/

http://www.epi.org/publication/china-trade-outsourcing-and-jobs/

Obviously EPI has its affiliations, but are these studies missing something?

Products, particularly vehicle parts, electronics and computer parts, have been made cheaper by free trade. This must have benefited tech companies, but with outsourcing (even software development jobs), was it worth it for Americans overall? If there were better social safety nets in the US, would a net gain be more obvious? I.e. is it just a matter of redistribution?

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Trade deficits don't lead to unemployment, and that's literally all it takes to debunk these studies since they just try to estimate job gains and losses from exports and imports, an incredibly simplistic analysis.

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Weekend papers:

[–]psyconautics 1ポイント2ポイント  (12子コメント)

Is there one aspect of sanders platform that is good economics? Sanders supporters are making me Want to vomit

[–]0729370220937022I have flair-writers block 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

Carbon tax

[–]grevemoeskrHumans are horses! 0ポイント1ポイント  (10子コメント)

Like most candidates, he has some good economics, like the carbon tax, and some not good economics. There is probably no one with outright bad economics, except for Trump, that wants to lower minimum wages

[–]psyconautics 3ポイント4ポイント  (9子コメント)

I find that most of it is badecon. Financial transaction tax 15$ minimum wage (while the effects of min wage is ambiguous eitc is more effective) Single payer 90% marginal taxes on rich Love for corporate income tax Does not even mention aspects of deregulation that are badly needed to allow for innovation

[–]say_wot_againConfirmed for Google bigwig 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Given that HFTs reduce the amount of alpha fundamental firms can capture and thus could lower the returns to research and make the market more inefficient (not to mention their rapid selling and accentuating of short run crashes), couldn't a tiny financial transactions tax that's only significant for HFTs be okay economics? I mean, batch auctions where trades can only happen every, say, second would likely be better, but still.

HCE3, who is both more qualified and more libertarian than nearly anyone else here, doesn't seem to hate single payer, so I don't know if it can be unequivocally called badeconomics. It's certainly going to be pricey and probably can't fix our cost issues without other major reforms (it didn't when tried in Vermont), but it's far from the worst thing on Sanders' agenda.

Also, does Sanders seriously support a 90% top marginal income tax rate?

[–]Kelsig 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sanders doesn't support a 90% rate per se, just mentions that we had that rate at a time where income inequality was at its lowest during the great compression.

[–]BainCapitalist 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

People don't put enough emphasis on the marginal part of 90 % marginal tax rate. Its pretty meaningless to talk about if you don't know what income bracket you're taxing. It probably wouldn't be that bad if there was only like two or three people who even made enough money to get taxed that much. It probably wouldn't even raise that much either.

All the same, so far Mike Huckabees tax plan is probably the best. No income tax, no tax expenditures, and 30 consumption tax. I'm curious to see if it would actually result in a net increase or decrease in total tax revenue.

[–]0729370220937022I have flair-writers block 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I haven't really looked into the economic implications of FTT/single payer, but I though the consensus on this sub was mixed. What about them is badeconomics?

[–]psyconautics 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I was under the impression that a ftt had bad consequences in Europe. It's not so much single payer, just his Unuanced view that seems to disregard r and d innovation. It's certainly no guarantee that single payer will reduce costs

[–]0729370220937022I have flair-writers block 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The 0.5% FTT was tried in Sweden and failed, however I don't think there is any way America will ever get a 0.5% FTT. I think you already have a small one anyways (I could be wrong though). The the thing that sanders advocates for that really bothers me is price controls on pharmaceuticals. That and the anti trade stuff.

[–]postironicirony 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

This is an economics sub but I find the fixation on candidate's economic positions bizarre. The presidency, especially in the current political climate, can do exactly fuckall in terms of enacting legislation. Given that we have yet another government shutdown imminent over planned parenthood funding, I find focusing on a candidate's economic positions is missing the forest for the trees.

Sander's economic policy might be flat out wrong, but in areas the executive has actual influence (judicial appnts, enforcement, foreign policy, vetoing) he would be a markedly different leftist alternative to Hillary. He also does not have easily dismissable opinions in these areas.

His supporters are fucking insufferable though I agree wtih you there. Personally, I am glad Sanders and Trump are doing so well. Anything with the potential to break the spine of the beltway political circle is good in my books.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

This is an economics sub but I find the fixation on candidate's economic positions bizarre.

Economists think economics is interesting and important.

[–]postironicirony 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well yes but the point I am making is that it is never a discussion on what the president can actually do.

If people were talking about Sander's appointments to the Treasury Dept or whatever that would be one thing (and iirc he has said some odd things about this). Or a change in Justice Department policy with corporate prosecution. There are many things a president can do to directly affect economic policy, but these actions are almost never the topic of discussion. Instead it is endless hooplah about trade and minimum wage.