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BadModerators Discussion Thread, 18 August 2015 (self.badeconomics)

submitted by BMRMikePeople are towns

Our own discussion thread, with blackjack and hookers

Time to inject some liquidity into the discussion market

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[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Today's game:

Take this quiz. Can you guess which social programs are effective/ineffective?

[–]IntegraldsI am the rep agent AMA 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Today's paper: "Alcohol Exposure In Utero and Child Academic Achievement," 2014 EJ. Ungated version.

We examine the effect of alcohol exposure in utero on child academic achievement. As well as studying the effect of any alcohol exposure, we investigate the effect of the dose, pattern, and duration of exposure. We use a genetic variant in the maternal alcohol-metabolism gene ADH1B as an instrument for alcohol exposure, whilst controlling for the child's genotype on the same variant. We show that the instrument is unrelated to an extensive range of maternal and paternal characteristics and behaviours. OLS regressions suggest an ambiguous association between alcohol exposure in utero and children's academic attainment, but there is a strong social gradient in maternal drinking, with mothers in higher socio-economic groups more likely to drink. In stark contrast to the OLS, the IV estimates show negative effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on child educational attainment. These results are very robust to an extensive set of model specifications. In addition, we show that that the effects are solely driven by the maternal genotype, with no impact of the child's genotype.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oster responded on facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/profemilyoster/posts/533329066786412

Highlights:

The study focuses on estimating the impact of alcohol measured by exposure units per week, duration of exposure or binge drinking. As the authors note (conclusion, page 30), the study is unable to say anything clear about low to moderate drinking. The range of consumption in the study is up to 35 drinks a week with a reasonable share of the population reporting binge drinking.

Estimating the impact of a continuous measure of alcohol units in this setting cannot be interpreted as the impact of moving from abstaining to a small number, as it is likely to be at least partially driven by increases at the higher levels. Moreover, the estimated impact of “Any Alcohol” in this setup will also be driven by the impacts of heavy and binge drinking and cannot be interpreted as the impact of light drinking.

To look at the issue of moderate drinking, one would want to limit the sample to women who abstain or drinking in moderation (including eliminating binge drinkers), and then preform the analysis on them. The authors report a version of this in Figure 3, although they do not exclude binge drinkers. The estimates are very noisy (first stages are not reported to is it hard to get a sense of the precision of the instrument here) and even in the 11-15 drinks per week group or 16+ drinks they cannot reject zero. This is certainly not to say that the results suggest low alcohol intact has no impacts, just that this study is not equipped to comment on that.

[–]13104598210I help banks get free monies 3 points4 points  (0 children)

THE ECONOMY IS A PONZI SCHEME

JANET YELLEN IS A NAZI

OUR CURRENCY IS A LIE

[–]EveRommel 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Do anyone have a good paper to explain government debt to the "GOVMET GOIN BROKE" type Austrians?

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The best response is:

"Unplugging the computer and taking a walk" (2015).

[–]Petros557there is no such thing as a market failure 3 points4 points  (0 children)

great presentation on why the free market can solve the discussion thread quantity problem. amen.

[–]Homeboy_JesusCogito ergo sum equus 2 points3 points  (2 children)

How about changing the AotW over at /r/economics, eh?

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 2 points3 points  (1 child)

GET YOUR ACT TOGETHE MODS

[–]Homeboy_JesusCogito ergo sum equus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mod failure across the board. Something something central planning nazis.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We need the mod monopoly on discussion stickies. Otherwise we'll get sticky hyper inflation.

[–]jajakes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Does anybody have a decent set of links on the current state of the literature on the effectiveness of economic sanctions?

Most of what Google Scholar shows me is at least fifteen years old -- and most of it significantly older. Surely there've been some advancements in the last seventh of a century

[–]KEM10le STEM (up until it breaks my bias) 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I found an actual "humans are horses" in the wild. I didn't believe people would actually say this shit, but here it is.

I'd make it a real post but the R1 is just "Humans aren't horses" and I think the Wub is against such silliness.