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Why does /badeconomics hate Bernie Sanders? (self.badeconomics)

jlew24asu が 投稿

He seems to be gaining in the polls and Hilary is tanking. The rest of reddit seems to love him. what is wrong with his potential economic policies? what would a Bernie Sanders economy look like?

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[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 18ポイント19ポイント  (21子コメント)

  1. A 15 dollar minimum wage is probably too high. It's hard to say at what point a minimum wage becomes harmful but the majority of economists tend to think that $15 is too high.

  2. He tends to be anti trade. Economists tend to like trade because when countries specialize it results in more output.

  3. He's anti immigration. More immigration can both improve the livelihoods of individual immigrants as well increase world gdp. This sub tends to be particularly pro immigration too.

Also this should be posted in the sticky. See RIV on the sidebar.

[–]gorbachevI am the representative shill, AMA. 7ポイント8ポイント  (2子コメント)

Bonus: We also don't like corporate income taxes. Bernie likes them more than average.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

A compromise is possible, whereby effective rates are increased while statutory rates are lowered.

[–]gorbachevI am the representative shill, AMA. 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I mean, whatever may be politically feasible, that really hasn't got any bearing on what policy is optimal.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 2ポイント3ポイント  (3子コメント)

He's anti immigration.

Is this actually true?

I mean, I know Sanders is against open borders, but so is Michael Clemens (not to mention every other candidate). My understanding is that he has a good voting record on this issue.

[–]strayadvice 5ポイント6ポイント  (2子コメント)

He thinks H1-B expansion is a corporate ploy to attract cheap labor and cites wage stagnation as an indication that demand for labor isn't going up.

[–]errordrivenlearning 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Honest question - can you provide me with some good citations that argue/prove that h1bs aren't a ploy for cheap labor and the stagnant wages aren't a sign of low demand for labor?

[–]cosimothecatBasel III for the Iron Bank 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

As someone who's personal politics (on economics matters and social matters) tend to straddle the two parties, Bernie Sanders is really the crystalization of all the badeconomics from both parties.

[–]jlew24asu[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

just curious, who do you support for president?

[–]cosimothecatBasel III for the Iron Bank 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

I don't know. I can see myself voting for either Clinton or Bush (.... odd saying that...) - both have policies I like and both have polices I detest. But fundamentally, I think they are centralist candidates, which I think is good for the country.

I do know who I will not vote for. That's easier. I will not vote for Donald. I will not vote for Bernie. So I guess if it's Trump vs Clinton, there's no doubt I'll vote for Clinton. Likewise, if it's Bernie vs Bush (or even Cruz), I'll vote republican.

[–]jlew24asu[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

you would take Cruz over Bernie? oh man, say it aint so. really sucks that we are talking about Clinton vs Bush yet again. I think this is why trump is leading. people are sick of political dynasties.

[–]cosimothecatBasel III for the Iron Bank 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

you would take Cruz over Bernie

Them are the breaks. I find Cruz' stance on social issues to be horrible. I find Bernie's stance on economic issues also to be horrible. But if I have to choose between setting social progressiveness back or setting economic growth back, I'll choose the former. If anything, the former can be fixed much much more easily than the latter;

I fully appreciate that this is entirely a result of my own utility function. I'm fully aware that I make such a choice because the social issues only affect me in abstraction while the economic issues affect me in a very real sense. And that others will feel the opposite. And that's great.

[–]venuswasaflytrap 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

A 15 dollar minimum wage is probably too high. It's hard to say at what point a minimum wage becomes harmful but the majority of economists tend to think that $15 is too high.

Is there something that backs this up? I've seen a lot of people on here say that this is so, and intuitively it makes sense to me, but I've never seen anything that explicitly indicates that the majority of economists agree with this.

[–]complexsystemsMWG is my homeboy 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

The issue is that an effective doubling of the minimum wage just has never happened recently, and most of modern studies can only see the relatively minor changes that happen. Even if we assume that there is some positive value that we can increase wages and not see negative employment effects (imperfect substitution between labor and capital inputs, monopsony arguments, etc), I think it might be safe to assume that as that value gets larger, the chance of hitting a negatively impactful area of firms' response is fair a fair assessment. i.e. most cases that say there is a non-harmful effect of raising the minimum wage, or even beneficial effect, still say that if you raise it too much you can see negative employment effects.

[–]venuswasaflytrap 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, I understand that there wouldn't be a case study that accurately reflects the situation, and the reasoning for why a dramatic change would likely be dangerous.

I was more wondering if there was something like an IGM panel survey that showed various economic opinions on the matter.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

IGM had economists split over the $9 minimum wage, which makes me think there is less of a split towards being against for $15

http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_br0IEq5a9E77NMV

[–]jlew24asu[S] 2ポイント3ポイント  (4子コメント)

He tends to be anti trade.

can you expand on that? what exactly is "anti trade" and where/how have you seem him support that.

downvoted? really? are questions and discussion not allowed?

[–]NicCageKillerBees 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

He's been very vocal against the TTP and TTIP, and is pretty critical of NAFTA. His rhetoric in talking about these things seems to imply that he thinks trade is bad and costs the US jobs.

[–]jlew24asu[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

interesting, I didnt know that. I wonder if he has some flexibility there.

[–]Brynden_Rivers_Esq 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Well let's not pretend that NAFTA turned out especially well for us or that TPP would be good for us (us being average americans). I don't think Sanders is anti trade, he's just picked some examples of bad-free-trade to hate on.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well let's not pretend that NAFTA turned out especially well for us or that TPP would be good for us (us being average americans).

No, let's.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Bernie is probably not much worse than most other candidates but at /be we mainly post badeconomics that we find on reddit, and Bernie's fanboys can get pretty bad. If this site were full of Hillary supporters we'd probably be just as harsh.

That said, Bernie is well known for a few positions that are certainly bad economics, such as opposition to trade, support for a 15 min wage, and opposition to increased immigration. Personally I think the only real difference between Bernie and everyone else is that Bernie is beholden to a different set of special interests than everyone else.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 7ポイント8ポイント  (9子コメント)

I like Bernie. Doesn't mean I need to ignore the bad economics of his campaign.

His views on immigration and jobs is antiquated at best. It's what the old unions pushed during each wave of new immigration, Chinese, Irish, etc. It's a position not even held by new labor such as the SEIU, and other major progressive unions.

Bernie makes the grossly incorrect claim that immigration is causing or will cause the depression of wages for the working class. This is simply not true. As every new wave of immigrants comes in, they also bring new businesses and boost demand. They do have some impact for wages of low paid, unskilled native workers. But given the benefits broadly, and the humanity of allowing immigrants come here to build a better life, it certainly should be and largely is a liberal position to have more generous immigration.

If Bernie is so concerned about the low paid, unskilled and rather small group of native workers, he should be promoting ways to give them skills or assistance in other ways.

I'm not against raising the minimum wage. I also don't think it's highly effective one way or the other. And a $15 minimum wage is, in my opinion, just his way of staking a position to pull it up by a more reasonable amount, say to 10 to 11.

I really wish he pushed for more market based welfare alternatives, like a more generous NIT. I'm all for a public jobs program to tighten the labor market. I'm all for public higher education funding increases. I generally like Bernie, despite being more centrist than his positions.

Well, that's until it's crunch time and I vote for Clinton.

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 12ポイント13ポイント  (8子コメント)

/sign

The immigration stuff is a HUGE deal. This is the biggest low-hanging policy fruit right now.

I'll also note that Sanders probably has the best environmental policies (since he's pushed for a carbon tax).

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 6ポイント7ポイント  (6子コメント)

carbon tax

Wow, that's a conservative policy. 1980 Ted Kennedy would never support allowing "companies to buy the right to pollute". Mark based solutions are now liberal in this country :)

[–]besttrousers"Then again, I have pegged you for a Neoclassical/Austrian." 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Economists have done a good job of capturing Democratic elites. Unfortunately, we lost Republican elites in the process....

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thanks, Clinton...

[–]0729370220937022 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

The Conservative party of Canada is against a carbon tax because they are against taxes in general. I don't know much about US politics but I assume it's the same over there.

[–]urnbabyurnNeoPanglossian 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

The carbon tax was sold as a way to offset income taxes. It had support among conservatives through most of the 90s in the U.S. and now is vehemently opposed. For some reason, they think taxing carbon is more economically disruptive than taking labor and capital.

I wonder if the Canadian conservatives had a similar change of heart in the 90s as they did in the U.S.

[–]0729370220937022 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I looked it up and the conservatives actually supported a cap-and-trade program up until 2008.

[–]NewmanTheScofflawRA for Ethan Hunt 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm pretty sure they did, since the Canadian Conservative party supports cap and trade. They want carbon tax to be revenue neutral.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Or O'Malley. He has a long record as a green governor. I've seen him support cap and trade, which is at least adequate.

And I probably should reconsider Sanders and O'Malley. I was really disappointed in Hillary's environmental plan.

[–]Aransentin 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

/u/HealthcareEconomist3 wrote a long effortpost about Sanders here.

He's also a proponent of a fringe economical theory - MMT - which was discussed here.