So you believe if the Nazi's had won 15-20% of the vote in 1932, Hitler would have still been appointed Chancellor?

A good question. Oskar wanted to rekindle his military career very badly. And how many seats did von Papen need to be appointed? He left the Center Party. He had none. The DNVP liked him, though.

In your theoretical does the Preussenschlag still happen, and do the Nazis still have the street punching power that they actually had? Or are they reduced to 15-20% of their paramilitary strength?

if you had to answer the question "Who won the July 1932 elections?", and you had to pick a group or party, who would you choose?

I would honestly say that no one won in terms of the election. Von Papen stayed in power. Weimar was a broken comedy of errors. In a battle whoever holds the field at the end is the "winner." So von Papen? He stayed Kanzler, but it certainly was a Pyhrric victory for him and anyone else, who thought they won. Everyone lost.

We have though established that Hitler was on his way, and I'm not denying that. It was a good election for his party, even though it doesn't bring them to power, but the way Sanders tells it, he was already Kanzler in 1932. He wasn't. It's a bad call on his part.