上位 200 件のコメント表示する 500

[–]Reilly616[S] 225ポイント226ポイント  (175子コメント)

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 167ポイント168ポイント  (128子コメント)

Have the putinbots come up with their spin about how this is actually good for Russia and that the West/EU's days are numbered? Does anyone want to bet BRICS is somehow involved and the petrodollar is going to fall?

[–]the_monkey_ 245ポイント246ポイント  (103子コメント)

The real tragedy is that Russia actually has SO MUCH potential. It drives me mad even thinking about it being from Canada. They have just as many resources as us, an incredible scientific base, and an even larger common market in the EU, than we have with the USA. And that's before we factor in China.

It has so much history and culture, if they opened up and made it less of a shitstorm to get into I'm sure they could have a booming tourism industry.

But no, Russians continually praise "Strongmen leaders" who don't take shit from the west, because that's what really matters in life. Meanwhile they get absolutely sold down the river by corrupt as fuck politicians, and they praise the shit out of them for doing so

Estimates of Putin's wealth are 80B$. Eighty fucking billion dollars! If our PM tried to steal 1/100 of that he would be dragged out of Parliament and shot in the street by an angry mob. I just don't get what they see in Putin. Maybe that's why so much of their talent leaves Russia for Canada, the UK, the USA, and Australia.

Oh well, it's great for us I guess. Hopefully one day they change course, but looking at their long, shitty political history, I think I could be forgiven for being a pessimist.

[–]i_love_beats 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

That's the irony of certain economies, isn't it. There are so many places that would be powerhouses if the stars were properly aligned. Unfortunately, that's not the case. Some countries are so close, yet so far. I really hate it when countries like the US, Canada, and Australia - face stagnation due to well-funded, well-organized, and well-lobbied business interest groups. Yeah... The world, eh!

I think Russia will always be a very different beast, unfortunately. Even once you take away its economic and natural resources - the knowledge economy there has so much potential. Russia has always been a special beast, just like the US. I don't see it change, ever. I'm just thankful despite all of the political drama, at least they're not letting it affect our space missions. Which is kind of interesting when you think about it.

[–]Morfolk 10ポイント11ポイント  (3子コメント)

Dude, I'm from Ukraine, we have very bad relations with Russia and Russians now and yet I feel the same:

Russia actually has SO MUCH potential.

So many times this. Whenever an argument starts over here about Russia, someone is always quick to point out how their quality of life is higher than in Ukraine. Big. Fucking. Whoop. We, Ukrainians know we are in deep shit, thats' the reason for the two 'revolutions' in the last 10 years. It's not that hard to be better off economically. Russia on the other hand is really close to us while having what you've said:

They have just as many resources as us, an incredible scientific base, and an even larger common market in the EU, than we have with the USA.

They want to be "respected" by the world while failing to recognize they could be leading that world without threatening everyone.

Hopefully one day they change course, but looking at their long, shitty political history, I think I could be forgiven for being a pessimist.

Honestly, at this point I think decentralization and breaking up into smaller more accountable political regions could offer a chance of rebuilding an efficient Russia. Otherwise they are going down and trying to bring their neighbors with them.

[–]Svenardo 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Talking about breaking up Russia is a criminal offense I think, so that's not going to happen anytime soon. Would be a good idea though

[–]asfsfaweafw 49ポイント50ポイント  (64子コメント)

The real tragedy is that Russia actually has SO MUCH potential.

They also have major limitations as well.

  1. Europe: Their trade with EU is limited due to historic reasons. Colonial rivalries, then the cold war, etc. You can't compare US/Canada to Russia/EU. The EU is russia's largest trading partner but they only do a third of the trade between the US-Canada for many reasons. Canada is content on being a sidekick to the US and being a commodity provider to the US. Hell Canada doesn't really even qualify as a real country. It was pass on from britain to the US. Russia views itself as a first-rate power.

  2. China: Common sense says that china and russia are made for each other just like the US/canada. China is a resource consumer and russia has tons of resources. But the US-Canada do about $632 billion in trade per year. Russia-China do about $89 billion. Why is that? Because russia in the past force china to cede a huge chunk of territory and russia and china have had wars/skirmishes/etc throughout history. Neither side trusts each other. So russia essentially missed china's economic boom of the past 30 years or so. That's why the russian far east is continuing to be depopulated. Nobody wants to live there before there aren't any economic potential.

  3. Japan: Common sense, once again, says that japan and russia are made for each other. Japan is one of the largest economies in the third and one of the most resource-poor nations on earth. Common sense says that the russians could have gotten wealthy feeding japan's economy. Unfortunately, after ww2, russia took a few islands from japan and never gave them back. So japan and russia's trade relations cannot be fully realized due to a few tiny barren islands.

4: South Korea: The sino-soviet baby north korea gets in the way of south korea and russia fully realizing their trade potential. South korea and Russia want to connect each other via oil/gas pipelines, railroads, etc but north korea is in the way.

5: Turkey: There are historical animosity between the turks and russians that limits their trade potential. Also, turkey's desire to join the EU gets in the way of turkey fully embracing russian trade.

So on and so forth. Russia's biggest asset is their huge landmass and the resources in that landmass. Unfortunately, conquering all that land means that the russians stole a shitload of land from everyone else. So russia has strained relations with EVERYBODY. Crimea isn't an anomaly. The russians annexed shitload of land from everyone. The russians took land from the germans to the japanese and everyone in between. It's how they became the largest nation on earth.

It has so much history and culture,

That's debatable... A lot of their culture was taken from europe, mongols, turks, etc. And their history isn't that deep or unique. We aren't talking about rome, britain, china, ottomans, persians, etc. Besides, tourism isn't going to save russia. Russia is too big for tourism to make a dent in their economy.

Estimates of Putin's wealth are 80B$.

"Estimates". You mean propagandists who hate putin made outlandish claims. Do you believe obama was born in kenya also?

Russia has a lot of positives, but they have even more negatives. Russia is in a tough spot. A lot of it their own doing.

[–]G_Morgan 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

Trade with the EU is limited because Russian labour is incredibly unproductive. The EU, prior to Ukraine, would trade with Russia all they want. It is Russia who wants trade barriers.

Russia keeps itself outside the normal markets because once trade is established it will cause unemployment to rise in Russia (though the employed would be much better off).

[–]tomdarch 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

People get over their "historic animosities" real quick when there's a buck/ruble/lira to be made. The US trades with Vietnam.

You're absolutely right, though, that this difficult situation for Russia is of their own doing. There was rampant "cheating" in the transition form Communism to private sector, and the nation never really did the hard work to build itself up to be a real player in the international marketplace. Pump some shit out of the ground like Nigeria and when domestic politics is tough, partially invade a neighbor.

[–]gerald_hazlitt 24ポイント25ポイント  (29子コメント)

A lot of their culture was taken from europe, mongols, turks, etc. And their history isn't that deep or unique. We aren't talking about rome, britain, china, ottomans, persians, etc.

I'd call their history quite unique - situated in between the European West and the Turko-Islamic East, a people who were under the Mongol yoke for centuries before creating one of the largest empires in human history.

A lot of their culture was taken from europe, mongols, turks, etc.

I could just as easily wave my hand and say that English culture is derivative, taken from the Romans and French, or that Japanese culture is derivative, taken from the Chinese.

Just because a culture contains components derived from elsewhere doesn't mean it's second-rate. In my humble opinion the Russians have produced the greatest body of literature in the modern era - far superior to anything that the English or Germans have produced (though perhaps not the French).

But the US-Canada do about $632 billion in trade per year. Russia-China do about $89 billion. Why is that? Because russia in the past force china to cede a huge chunk of territory and russia and china have had wars/skirmishes/etc throughout history.

Do you have a source for this claim about Sino-Russian distrust reducing trade? The closer proximity of the major population centres of Russia to the EU would appear a more likely reason if I were to speculate. China and Russia signed a raft of trade agreements just a few months ago (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-china-trade-deals/27001913.html), and then there's that massive pipeline that Gazprom is building to funnel gas to its eastern neighbour (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-gazprom-to-invest-9-billion-in-gas-pipeline-to-china-over-3-years/524447.html).

[–]All-Shall-Kneel 35ポイント36ポイント  (25子コメント)

greatest body of literature in the modern era - far superior to anything that the English or Germans have produced (though perhaps not the French).

now you see, that's a controversial opinion

[–]DrTelus [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Where you feel Russian literature stands depends on your view of lierature's development.

For me Russian literature ultimately doesn't bear comparison to English literature because since the consolidation of Bolshevik power it's produced so little of value. If you were to make a list of great novelists from the mid twenties onwards, great writers writing in the English language would outnumber those writing in Russian by an order of magnitude and possibly two.

[–]starpey [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Putin owns %'s in Russia's energy firms. Full %'s not fractions.

Yes, that is billions.

The propagandists you refer to put it in the $200 billion range. No he does not have that much, but he does have billions.

[–]bozmonster 2ポイント3ポイント  (11子コメント)

Problem is if you give Japan their Islands back, everyone will want something back - Germany will say give us Kaliningrad, Turks will try take over the Caucasus and China will try take Siberia - there's a saying that Russia's only friends are it's navy and army.

TLDR Russia doesn't want to be 2nd best so they end up being 6th or something

[–]Nagransham 8ポイント9ポイント  (2子コメント)

Not sure about the other ones, but I'm having serious trouble figureing out what Germany would want with Kaliningrad. I mean, if you want to get rid of it, give it to Poland or something lol.

[–]Ivanow 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Poland doesn't want it either. Best bet would be independent, Singapore-style, city-state.

[–]G_Morgan 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Germany won't want Konigsberg back. Going to Poland would be a more sensible solution. Though at this point it is as Russian as Moscow.

[–]Melonskal 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

That's some massive leaps of logic you're taking there. Germany wanting a completely Russianized enclave east of Poland, Turkey claiming territories without any Turks in separated by land by Georgia?

[–]sonay 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Turkey will always accept any land. Damn, we love that shit so much. It is a Napolean complex we have had since the fall of Ottoman.

[–]pblum 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Does russia have any neighbors that do not hate them?

[–]inexcess 5ポイント6ポイント  (4子コメント)

People there protested back in 2012 i think, when Putin was elected a 3rd time to office. They were met with brute force. It's what happens every time there, even when the government changes. It's a shame.

[–]ImOP_need_nerf 4ポイント5ポイント  (2子コメント)

How many people?

[–]wald_p 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

17 (local Russian counting agency) to 24 (pro-Western rotten capitalist agency), depends who's counting.

[–]Kimature 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's actually peaked around 200 000. But they weren't you know as serious as ukrainians. So after few hits they just spread away. Was pretty laughable.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 8ポイント9ポイント  (8子コメント)

Putin is even richer than that, he is literally the Russian state. Think about that, all the priceless paintings, sculptures, etc., in the country, he can have hanging in his bathroom by just giving the order.

[–]valakut_ 7ポイント8ポイント  (6子コメント)

If you count Putin's underlyings (the Russian oligarchs), Putin is the world's first trillionaire.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 0ポイント1ポイント  (5子コメント)

It is hard for people who don't understand Russia and Russians, that Putin is Russia. Simple as that, what he says goes.

[–]Pardonme23 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

What happens if he's assassinated?

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

We are all fucked.

edit: Russia is fucked because god knows who comes next, we are fucked cuz the Russkies have abunch of nukes. It's bad for everyone. Russia, fucking shit up since 1917.

[–]gnufreex 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

No, nothing will change, he would get replaced by the guy who will continue all the same policies. Probably Narishkin, or Patrushev. Or Ivanov. They are basically the same, some say even tougher against syphilized world. And one of them would rule to 2024 same as Putin would, using the same plan.

Who will rule after 2024 is little tougher guess. It would be someone younger. Some say Rogozin, some Vorobyov. But it could be someone else.

But ether way, you will not get closer to conquering Russia if you kill Putin in UN summit next month.

[–]DrunkCommy 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Earlier than that man.

[–]pblum 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The russian economy is his personal piggy bank.

[–]quantumcanuk 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Are you Canadian?

It's probably like the anti-American sentiment in Canada, but against the west

[–]peridot_craponite 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

But no, Russians continually praise "Strongmen leaders" who don't take shit from the west, because that's what really matters in life. Meanwhile they get absolutely sold down the river by corrupt as fuck politicians, and they praise the shit out of them for doing so

It's weird to think that Stalin's purges of "subversives" may have literally bred the Russian population to always support its leader no matter how poorly he leads.

[–]mimunto 12ポイント13ポイント  (1子コメント)

Right now they are in the "Denial Phase". They hope the story just goes away if they don't talk about it and haven't found a proper spin yet.

If the story sticks they will enter the "Misinformation Phase". The apparatus has been mobilized and they will say stuff like "Ukrainians shot down MH17" or "right sector crucifies child". Not necessarily to convince everybody, but to create confusion and make sure that those who really want to believe Kremlin has done no wrong has the opportunity.

If they still can't avoid the truth, the "Whataboutism Phase" will begin. "Everybody (especially the US) does this" is the message now. This is both to make it a non-story (i.e. this is the norm, why talk about it) and to justify it. They seem to be forgetting that if even that were true then "everybody" would also have received the same criticism. Note: Denial and misinformation is still running at full speed, which makes this especially funny since they're essentially justifying something they say didn't happen.

All this continues for a while. If they still can't convince anybody and have no solid arguments they will go into the "Done Is Done Phase". "Sure we moved your people to the Gulag and replaced them with Russians, but we can't change that now." "Crimea is Russian now. Doesn't matter how it happened, not going to change, might as well accept it and move on". However, there's still no feeling of responsibility or apology in there. I expect these shills also favors zero sentences for criminals who show no regret for their actions. Note: this is only for external consumption, since the internal market is completely controlled already.

If the event is of sufficient importance, it'll finally rest in the "Revised History Phase". The misinformation will consolidate into a single story that builds nationalistic pride and/or fuels the fear/hatred of a common enemy. The rest of the world has forgotten it by now, so this is only for internal consumption.

[–]apmechev 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Pretty good run though. They already have state propaganda convincing the populace that Stalin did nothing wrong, he was completely justified, etc etc.

It's all just a little bit of history repeating

[–]Idrimi12 135ポイント136ポイント  (215子コメント)

Putin figures the short term loses are worth the long term gains in Crimea and E. Ukraine; I have no idea if that will work or not.

[–]YouAnnoyedMeIntoThis 71ポイント72ポイント  (84子コメント)

Russia's future post-Putin is uncertain. Ultimately I suspect it will have to choose east or west. If it tries to stand in the middle it will most likely falter.

[–]Trot_Sky_Lives 52ポイント53ポイント  (51子コメント)

I see Russian kids learning Chinese in the future.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 44ポイント45ポイント  (38子コメント)

Russian kids will be lucky to work in Chinese factories.

[–]Trot_Sky_Lives 63ポイント64ポイント  (14子コメント)

I hate you for saying that - because I love Russia without Putin and the asshats that are destroying it - but you're so right, it's not even funny.

[–]CleverKnapkins 8ポイント9ポイント  (3子コメント)

Can you expand on why he is so right?

[–]Kimature 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

While gaining the Crimea, Russia sold even bigger chunk of territory to china. The "great Pipe" to China, is being builded on russian money, the price of this gas is pretty low. Chinese overlords are fucking us and we don't have much alternatives. And before that, all disputed territories were given to China.

And what russians don't remember, russia was fucking China really really bad. Opium wars, nuclear testing near china and so on till USSR fell apart. Chinese were second sort people, basically talking monkeys, "sick man of Asia". The amount of humiliation they went through is just huge. And a lot of them were learning in USSR(communist universities), they remember that, they will get us.

[–]RegisteringIsHard 10ポイント11ポイント  (9子コメント)

Maybe those kids' grandchildren. Russia's GDP per capita is still almost twice that of China's and an order of magnitude higher than many other countries in Asia. Short of something catastrophic, like Russia financially collapsing, it would be a loooooooooong time before the economics would make sense for China to consider any large scale outsourcing to Russia.

[–]minnit 14ポイント15ポイント  (1子コメント)

Will they pay them in krokodil?

[–]Nuke_It 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

That's low man...at least Heroin from Afghanistan is plentiful.

[–]Yaver_Mbizi 6ポイント7ポイント  (8子コメント)

That doesn't even make sense - why would China outsource its labour? It's not like they have a heap of resources besides cheap labour; it's even more pointless to outsource to Russia, where labour is less plentiful but more expensive.

[–]gerald_hazlitt 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's not like they have a heap of resources besides cheap labour;

They're rapidly amassing superior intangible capital - knowledge, skill and technology.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 4ポイント5ポイント  (6子コメント)

Are you obtuse? Because the population in China is getting richer and Russians are getting poorer. It will eventually be cheaper to produce things in Russia instead of China.

[–]katskratcher 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

What's the difference between a ruble and a dollar? A dollar.

[–]gameronice 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Average Russians are still living a much much much better lifestyle than Chinese people. And when China reaches a similar level - it will bring a lot of trouble, since currently they have where to grow, most of the country lives in poverty and has no welfare or pensions. Once people understand that they can have a better life, and doesn't need to slave over a grinder, Chine will face recession and other problems.

[–]respect_cat 7ポイント8ポイント  (3子コメント)

The Chinese will be teaching the Russians English.

[–]KingOfTheNorthPole 9ポイント10ポイント  (2子コメント)

The Japanese will be teaching the Chinese people teaching Russians Spanish.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 12ポイント13ポイント  (6子コメント)

You may like this quote; it's Churchill talking about Lenin after he died.

"He alone could have led Russia into the enchanted quagmire; he alone could have found the way back to the causeway. He saw; he turned; he perished. The strong illumination that guided him was cut off at the moment when he had turned resolutely for home. The Russian people were left floundering in the bog. Their worst misfortune was his birth: their next worst his death."

Post Putin Russia? We might all be fucked.

[–]Idrimi12 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

Dugin seems to think a multipolar world would be more stable with his Eurasian theory and the Fourth Political Theory. I'm not sure, I think we will see in the future more polarization between the North and global South, with Europe, North America, Russia, China, Korea(s at some point reunification will occur imo) and Japan versus underdeveloped third world countries and Islamic insurrections.

[–]lowenmeister 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Russia could very well bridge the gap between west and east if they stop being violent assholes and nurtured good relations with both power blocks.

[–]tigersharkwushen_ 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Post-Putin may be a long way off though. He could well live to be 98 or 110.

[–]Big_Baby_Jesus_ 45ポイント46ポイント  (47子コメント)

Crimea isn't worth anything. It's a dirt poor hunk of rock. Eastern Ukraine had some industry, but it's been crippled by the war.

I saw so many comments about how smart Putin was running rings around stupid Obama. But Russia has clearly come out on the short end of this. Their currency has halved in value in the past 18 months. US GDP growth is over 2% now.

[–]ghb52323 19ポイント20ポイント  (27子コメント)

Fives words: Oil and Warm Water Ports

[–]instasquid 64ポイント65ポイント  (11子コメント)

A warm water port whose access to the rest of the world is controlled by NATO.

[–]Maybestof 19ポイント20ポイント  (10子コメント)

Unless there is a war with Russia, the Bosphorus straight is going to remain open. It has been declared as international waters.

[–]iZacAsimov 24ポイント25ポイント  (6子コメント)

And beyond that, Crete can serve as a choke-point, Malta-Sicily-Italy as yet another one, and then there's Gibraltar. Yeah, it's so worth it.

If ports were so important, developing Vladivostok would've been a better use of resources.

But you know what, maybe there's a Prothean archive in Crimea, who knows?

[–]Maybestof 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

I am not saying that those places can't be used as a choke in a war situation. Crimea would not be that amazing in case of a war, no. But in peacetime it could be a really important port for Russia in the future. There is definitely value in it.

I do agree though that the possibility of discovering Prothean archives is much too ignored in geopolitics.

[–]AzertyKeys 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

dude it all makes sense now... First Russia takes control of crimea, now Horizon goes to Pluto and its moon Charon...

HOT DAMN I'm gona have sex with an Asari in 30 years !

[–]iZacAsimov 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Geth can't melt Citadel beams!

[–]G_Morgan 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

The only reason for controlling a warm water port is if there is a war. In truth the whole debate is bizarre. Russia can barely stand up to the British or French navies never mind the US one. Access to ports is the least problem they have in this regard.

[–]Maybestof 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The only reason for controlling a warm water port is if there is a war.

That is definitely not true. You need it for shipping and navy basing among other things. Those are much more important than war for an economy first nation. Currently Russia has to rely on their neighbors giving them access in winter. Crimea gives them a glimpse of independence from that.

I am not condoning that Russia took over Crimea, but there is certainly sense to it. Lots of sense.

[–]Jeffy29 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes, but Russia would have had the Crimean ports no matter what, people in ukraine wanted to the west, but Ukraine still earned lot of money and good favors for leasing Crimean ports to Russia. I doubt they would axed the deal.

[–]Big_Baby_Jesus_ 29ポイント30ポイント  (12子コメント)

Russia has had a port in Crimea for 20 years. They did not need to invade.

[–]ghb52323 10ポイント11ポイント  (10子コメント)

When Kiev had a regime change (pro Russia to pro western) they risked losing the port, which is vital to their navy. Plus now they can expand it as much as they want.

[–]Ehmcee 8ポイント9ポイント  (8子コメント)

They "believed" they could lose the port. Everything was predicated on a 50/50 chance. The new Ukranian regime would of renewed the lease anyways. More than likely.

Edit: BEFORE the jet liner was shot down.

[–]i_love_beats 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

But if both port and land are under Russian control AND ownership, that means they no longer need to pay a third party for transit, import, and other costs. They can also flat out control the labor. I think the economic benefit might be tremendous as well. I could be wrong, but this is basically how organized crime works in modern-day Italy and parts of New York.

[–]joggle1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Russia already had access to a warm water port. Crimea is over 60% ethnic Russians with a large community of Russian military (active and retired). Only in Russian dystopian fantasies were they ever going to lose access to Crimea.

Ukraine has a very weak government who could not possibly kick out the Russian bases at Crimea even if they had wanted to.

[–]Splorz 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

But is that because of sanctions or because of the sudden drop in crude oil prices? Saudi Arabia seems to be facing the same problems right now. This is a consequence of an economy that heavily depends on fossil fuel exports.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Saudi Arabia has access to Western finance, Russia doesn't. Big difference.

[–]sharklazers99 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

If you don't think Crimea was worth anything then you'll be scratching your heads figuring out why he did it.

Take a good hard look at this map https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_bMrCvU8AASi-h.jpg

Georgia and Moldova are pro-western and Ukraine wanted to join NATO.

For Russia taking Crimea and making sure that Ukraine can never join NATO was one of the smartest things they have ever done. They stopped the Black Sea from being a NATO lake with an isolated and contained Russia to one where Russia dominates the Northern part.

Keep on scratching your head mate.

[–]lolfail9001 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

I mean, it's still a fucking NATO lake, because who the fuck cares about Northern part of it, Black Sea's point was always exit out of it and it's fucking locked.

[–]Ascott1989 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

You realise the Black Sea is a NATO lake regardless of whether or not Russia has complete Control of Ukraine? The Black Sea Fleet at the time of a war would be destroyed within hours. Russia doesn't have the capabilities to defend from Moscow to Crimea with airpower.

They only have a few hundred worthy airframes of which those wouldn't last long. They'd be fighting a completely defensive / holding action. Russia can never, ever hope to do anything with the BSF except maybe Harass Georgia but they could do that without taking Crimea.

[–]PLLOOOOOP 8ポイント9ポイント  (5子コメント)

Crimea isn't worth anything. It's a dirt poor hunk of rock.

Cite? Seems to me it has several gas fields and an oil field. The Odeske gas field is confirmed 746 billion cubic feet and will output 35 million cubic feet per day for CNOOC this year.

Not to mention the naval strategic value of the Black Sea.

EDIT: For context, the Yadana gas field in Myanmar is ~7x the size of Odeske, and it's been the subject of many billions of dollars worth of investment for decades.

EDIT 2: Feet, metres. What's the diff?

EDIT 3: Downvoters, what the fuck? You should probably appreciate actual research in a news community. Do you prefer "facts" so fresh out of OP's ass that you can still smell the shit?

[–]Mushroom_Tip 11ポイント12ポイント  (3子コメント)

It's not worth anything right now. Crimea was a net-taker when it was part of Ukraine--It didn't contribute anything to Ukraine's budget and Ukraine had to subsidize it.

Right now the region needs heavy infrastructure investment in terms of bridges, water pipelines, electricity substations, etc.

When Russia annexed Crimea, it also took over its 1.5 billion dollar budget deficit. Doesn't sound like the gas and oil fields are paying off.

[–]anon902503 11ポイント12ポイント  (8子コメント)

Putin figures the short term loses are worth the long term gains in Crimea and E. Ukraine

I don't think that's it at all. His economic plan was already failing before Ukraine started. He's demagoguing the Ukrainians to boost his domestic popularity, keep his people distracted, and keep the more militant rivals at bay.

It's all short term with Putin.

There's absolutely nothing of any long term value in Crimea or East Ukraine other than that temporary nationalism.

[–]kohalikpagan 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I agree. I remember reading that Kudrin was the last Russian politician in government, who was economics savvy. And part of the reason he left was because he was sick of the economy being sacrificed for militarism.

Also, Russia is very dependent on energy and resource exports to Europe. But the EU had been steadily decreasing their dependence on Russian energy for years even before the Ukrainian conflict.

Now with lower oil prices and the sanctions, who knows how screwed Russia might get.

[–]RIngo2222 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

I disagree with characterizing it as short term losses against long term gains in Donbas and Crimea.

The economic damage to Russia spawning from Ukraine will likely contribute to several years of diminished growth. An effect which compounds over time. It also associates Russia with significant geopolitical risk for investors. And Trade with Ukraine is not going to recover for decades if ever

As to Crimea which could be classed as an asset (Donbass can't really be), its economy went into freefall after being 'acquired' by Russia. It will never be recognized and I suspect that crimea specific sanctions will stay forever. It is likely to be a continuing drain on Russian resources.

[–]idunnoiforget 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Crimea doesn't have much commercial value honestly I think the annexation of Crimea was mostly done to make sure Sevastopol naval port stayed under Russian control. As for Eastern Ukraine, that's costing Russia more money then they could possibly get out so it isn't about the money. My guess is that it's to keep NATO out.

[–]SirLasberry 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Putin didn't care about Russia as a country gaining anything from this - he cared to anchor his power in Russia, and that he did.

[–]Benjamminmiller 1ポイント2ポイント  (38子コメント)

No, not anymore. Russia would not have annexed Crimea if it knew the results would be so drastic.

[–]AmericanFartBully 28ポイント29ポイント  (2子コメント)

I don't think it's really about Crimea, per se. Or spheres-of- inflluence.

All of this, this constant gamesmanship and brinksmanship and posturing; it's really just Putin's personality, his leadership style and behavioral tendency. This is how he, continually and consistently, rose to power, and throughout very turbulent times in a very chaotic post-war culture.

It's what he knows. He's like a 1-trick pony, just doing what he knows. And he's just going to continue in that fashion till, one way or another, it does him in.

[–]godless_communism 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Acting like a tough guy gets the public off his back. He discovered that pimping nationalism lets him off the hook.

[–]Lucky13R 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

As a Russian I can tell you that you are wrong on this.

[–]zxz242 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Half of two small provinces is not exactly eastern Ukraine.

[–]mddie 107ポイント108ポイント  (49子コメント)

The main reason Russian GDP dropped for this quarter is because of continued low energy prices. Canada got hit hard too this quarter and was forced to cut rates while US was looking to raise rates later this year. Major energy exporting countries like Russia, Canada, Saudi Arabia all got hit.

Low energy prices is temporary for now because China, India, etc. are not using as much energy because of slowed growth, and China (who is the main buyer of energy) is currently sitting on a lot of stored oil they haven't used yet. The recent Iran deal also didn't help energy prices.

[–]OneOfADozen 44ポイント45ポイント  (8子コメント)

No. The USA is, by far, the largest consumer of oil. The USA is also the world's largest producer of oil. We use most of what we produce, so there are a few countries that actually export more than the USA.

[–]Surferbum08 29ポイント30ポイント  (5子コメント)

The United States haven't exported crude oil since 1975

[–]floopyloopy 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

We export refined oil products, not crude oil itself.

[–]Bttc 7ポイント8ポイント  (2子コメント)

We're currently a net energy exporter. I don't know if we're exporting crude right now, but if we're not, then we're exporting refined oil.

I think the ban on exporting crude oil went away recently, but I'm too lazy to google it.

[–]FlygandeApa 22ポイント23ポイント  (0子コメント)

That is a huge modification of the truth. The us imports large amounts of oil refines it and exports it. This oil never leaves the harbor in the us. the us does not export oil produced in the us.

When it comes to oil consumed in the us a large portion is imported and the us is far from Self sufficient.

[–]junk_science 14ポイント15ポイント  (0子コメント)

IIRC we're the the largest exporter of refined products, not crude oil. We're not near the top on unrefined products. Although there are swaps with Canada and (maybe Pemex?) but I'm not sure how those factor in.

Not disagreeing with you, just adding some info. Cheers.

[–]Thelog0 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

According to the wiki Russia is the largest producer of oil

[–]G_Morgan 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

Low energy prices will pretty much last forever given how the crisis has developed. The truth is the US fracking industry has proven resilient at these prices. Far from going bankrupt, fracking is now producing energy more cheaply than it was before.

This is a long overdue correction from a disruptive technology. It isn't going to go away.

[–]rymarc 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Fracking is a MORE expensive method of oil extraction (compared to traditional wells), fracking was profitable when oil was around $100/barrel. Now that the price of oil has dropped dramatically, fracking makes a lot less economic sense and the amount of fracking in the country will adjust accordingly.

Additionally, more and more public support is growing for either more regulation in regards to fracking or out right bans in many areas. Fracking is not a new "disruptive technology" the technology has existed for decades.

[–]G_Morgan 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Fracking was happening in many places that make no sense. However a lot of fracking will still take place at $60 which we are seeing today.

Yeah fracking will probably contract but if oil prices go above $60 again it'll expand. It'll pin down the market and stop oil cartel's from creating an artificial price again. At that point it doesn't matter if oil is predominantly fracked or not. It only needs to act as a release valve against the OPEC cartel.

[–]godless_communism 12ポイント13ポイント  (28子コメント)

Aren't our pals, Saudi Arabia, dumping oil right now?

[–]Big_Baby_Jesus_ 24ポイント25ポイント  (22子コメント)

No. There is no evidence of that. Their production levels have been pretty flat, just under 10 MBPD, for almost 2 years.

http://ycharts.com/indicators/saudi_arabia_crude_oil_production

[–]kanada_kid 7ポイント8ポイント  (7子コメント)

Huh? That's odd. I was sure I read something about thr Saudis dumping the market with oil.

[–]1111111 19ポイント20ポイント  (0子コメント)

Saudis didn't raise output, they contributed to the glut by not cutting back on it. Cutting back on it wouldn't have decreased oil glut it just would have allowed their competitors to compete for market share and turn a profit.

[–]Vekseid 11ポイント12ポイント  (1子コメント)

They refused to cut production, 'taking one for the team' so oil prices would rise.

That would have been stupid, so they didn't.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

Actually they are smart for doing that. The last time "they took one for the team", everyone else agreed to cut production but then kept on producing anyway.

[–]floopyloopy 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

You can't believe everything you read.

[–]Maybestof 0ポイント1ポイント  (13子コメント)

I thought Saudi Arabia pumping more oil was the reason for the slump in oil prices. If not that, what is it? I am confused.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 5ポイント6ポイント  (10子コメント)

It's the same difference, people are just trying to act smart. Saudi Arabia is pumping more oil than the other oil producers would like, they wanted them to take a cutback, SA told them to fuck off, leading to the same effect, a glut in oil production.

TL DR: SA didn't need to pump more oil to keep supply high. They can depress the price by producing at their current level, and when other producers go bankrupt or have to reduce production, SA can increase production to gain market share.

[–]Maybestof 0ポイント1ポイント  (9子コメント)

So the slump in oil prices is simply because of the 2008 crisis?

[–]MrDannyOcean 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

The slump in prices is because of

  • increased supply (mostly from north american shale, but also Iran re-entering the market soon, some war-torn countries getting back on track, etc)
  • decreased demand (mostly from a slowdown in China, but also impacted by stagnation in the EU, recession in south america and depression in russia among other things)

[–]Trot_Sky_Lives 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

The slump in oil prices is due to global growth slowing down. China is just one piece of the puzzle. This is the thing no one had caught unto yet -- except for a few people that I try to keep up with. Has nothing to do with Russia, actually, and will have consequences for all of us.

[–]BIgDandRufus 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

So the slump in oil prices is simply because of the 2008 crisis?

The slump in oil prices is because of fracking in the US. Over the last 10 years US oil output has increased dramatically. Now the Iran deal promises to bring even more oil to market.

[–]kohalikpagan 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Saudis themselves said it was because Iraq increased production.

[–]sceltwi 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Not really. Dumping would mean that they flood the markets with underpriced oil. They're far from that. Their production costs are below $10, their sales price is the current market rate.

Oil has a very low demand elasticity. Consumers don't suddenly need 10% more or less oil next week, the development is slow and stable. This means you can control the market price with a relatively low market share, just by keeping the total world supply slightly above or below current consumption. The Saudi King usually did that for the OPEC cartel, by lowering the production caps of his own industry. This time he and his successor repeatedly refused to take any measures, thus letting the price fall to its natural market levels.

I see two obvious motivations. First the growing market share of shale oil, which threatens the Saudi's control over the OPEC cartel. Second the Russian proxy war against the Saudis in Syria. I don't think the Saudis will change their oil policies before the Russians stop backing Assad and remove their military from Syria. Regarding economic and diplomatic power the Saudis clearly dominate this conflict. While the only options Russia has left are military threats and FSB terrorism. Useless against Saudi-Arabia.

[–]G_Morgan 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

No they've just refused to reduce output. All Saudi Arabia did was admit that OPEC have no ability to control prices any more.

[–]TheAngryGoat 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

No, most of the new production is from North America.

Everyone else just asked the Saudis "hey can you sell less oil so we can make more money from the stuff we're selling?"

Quite rightly the Saudis said fuck that and carried on producing the same as before.

[–]pfods 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

considering energy is such a huge sector of their economy i'd say it's a pretty big problem.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice -2ポイント-1ポイント  (1子コメント)

So Russia will continue to be fucked for the foreseeable future.

[–]i_love_beats 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

As long as Putin is in charge, I wouldn't expect a healthy economy anytime soon. Guys like him have a natural talent for fucking shit up for as many people as possible. He's pretty much wired to fuck up an economy.

[–]rostasan 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I would also argue that a weaker middle class in Russia gives the economy no where to go. Although once the incomes in that bracket start to increase that would fuel a nice boom for Russia.

[–]hodyoaten 15ポイント16ポイント  (3子コメント)

This is sad... I had high hopes back in the 1990s the US and Russia would move from being great enemies to great allies, but I guess that's not happening. It's amazing how quickly the politics over there got toxic in the 1990s.

[–]jackblack2323 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

They were never forced in the right direction like Japan or south Korea. We should have rewrote their constitution for them, and gave them financial assistance after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Their path to democracy only led to poverty which made them miss the old days.

[–]DataDorker 32ポイント33ポイント  (3子コメント)

Putin's logic: "Hey remember how good the cold war worked out for us? Let's do that again!"

[–]Ascott1989 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Well for him the Cold War was perfect, it basically precipitated his rise to power in Russia. This is what this whole thing is about Putin and he collection of wealth and power.

[–]Aspy343 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Wasn't it the exact opposite - the end of the cold war - that brought him power and wealth?

[–]challenge4 70ポイント71ポイント  (21子コメント)

It looks like the GDP is Russian to the bottom

[–]SiberianShibe 40ポイント41ポイント  (18子コメント)

I bet the decline will be Stalin later on this year.

[–]PhilosopherBat 34ポイント35ポイント  (12子コメント)

The government should have Putin more money into diversifying it's economy.

[–]nevalk 37ポイント38ポイント  (11子コメント)

If that's how they have to learn then Soviet.

[–]ShadowKnightofRegret 39ポイント40ポイント  (9子コメント)

Russia gets very low Marx for its handling of the economy.

[–]PhilosopherBat 25ポイント26ポイント  (8子コメント)

Yeah, if their economy keeps going down they will be Yelstin for mercy.

[–]CatRelatedUsername 32ポイント33ポイント  (7子コメント)

Won't be long till their entire economy is nothing but ruble.

[–]PhilosopherBat 27ポイント28ポイント  (6子コメント)

A highly corrupt government will do an economy a Lada harm.

[–]CatRelatedUsername 13ポイント14ポイント  (5子コメント)

But seriously, though; vodka'n the Russian people do to improve their situation?

[–]banfromallsubreddits 16ポイント17ポイント  (0子コメント)

C'mon guys, give them some Lenincy.

[–]Freekmagnet 10ポイント11ポイント  (3子コメント)

Well, they can stop their crimea-nal activities in other countries.

[–]ghostunit777 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

If it doesn't, there will be little left of the Russian economy but Ruble.

[–]floopyloopy 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

omg russian sounds like rushing --- that's sooo funny and you are so smart for making the connection

[–]ReservoirProp 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

That'll teach 'em to bin all that cheese.

[–]jwax33 17ポイント18ポイント  (29子コメント)

Darn?

[–]vote_pao_2016 10ポイント11ポイント  (28子コメント)

this is not good, i'm not sure an economic collapse in russia is a good thing for the world right now, especially at a time when china has just frozen trades in it's stock market for large stakeholders due to massive sell-off's. it's all fun and games until one of the other 2 superpowers in the world enacts plan B.

[–]Trot_Sky_Lives 8ポイント9ポイント  (6子コメント)

They haven't launched in 1991, nor in 1998. They're not going to launch in 2016 either. Wink wink.

[–]Freekmagnet 33ポイント34ポイント  (11子コメント)

um, I would hesitate to refer to Russia as a "superpower". It's military is second rate, it's total economy is smaller than the state of California's (and shrinking), it's standard of living is degrading, and thanks to Putin it has lost the respect of the rest of the world.

[–]vote_pao_2016 1ポイント2ポイント  (7子コメント)

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

The user should note that nuclear capability is not taken into account as that would defeat the purpose of such comparisons. Instead, the GFP ranking is based strictly on each nation's potential conventional war-making capabilities across land, sea and air. The final ranking also incorporates values related to resources, finances and geography. Some statistics have been estimated where official numbers are not publicly available.

[–]Ascott1989 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

And with that any credibility you had is gone. If you honestly think that global firepower is a reputable source for anything military related then you have zero understanding of it.

[–]vote_pao_2016 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

ok well enlighten me then with a more credible source please, i don't have all day to research shit before i make an offhand remark on reddit.

[–]user_account_deleted 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Might not want to make offhand comments on Reddit then mate. If you don't know the facts behind the comments you're making, you shouldn't make them, otherwise you make yourself look silly.

[–]pfods 13ポイント14ポイント  (0子コメント)

that site is absolute atrocious because most of its "calculations" are based strictly on numbers, not on training, quality of equipment, etc. on top of that, russia being ranked second doesn't make them a superpower. it makes them a distant second next to the only superpower.

[–]assyrianaccountant 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

Who is russia going to attack? I don't see russia doing much without an air presence that rivals the u.s. The only thing russia has is AA systems/Tanks, and if you're going to invade, those AA systems are for defensive measures not invasions. Their naval fleet also severely lacks. Logistics will win a war and Russia cannot establish a good supply chain without air or water superiority. A military needs a good balance.

[–]vote_pao_2016 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

they're a big fish in a small pond, i'm sure they can find someone new to pick on soon, especially if they're starting to get hungry. haven't they been pulling some BS at the border land in georgia or something along those lines?

edit link

[–]Heinemenusch 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

The problem with that ranking is it doesn't take into account the actual capability of the nation to project that power.

Having hundreds of thousands of troops isn't much use if you can't afford to equip and train them properly or afford to have them expend fuel and ammunition fighting.

[–]Heinemenusch 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

There are only 3 Superpowers these days:

  • The USA.
  • China and
  • The EU, which is certainly an economic and diplomatic Superpower if not a military one.

[–]lucidusmentis 13ポイント14ポイント  (6子コメント)

I disagree. There is nothing like desperate economic straits to force a shift in policy. At the very least, projecting military force is expensive, even if Putin refuses to acknowledge that sanctions are contributing to the downturn. Better yet if Russians come to sour on their authoritarian political elite and their aggressive policies.

[–]Freekmagnet 15ポイント16ポイント  (2子コメント)

And just think; the west has much bigger guns in it's arsenal of sanctions that have not been used yet. So far all they have done is targeted a few of Putin's personal friends with asset freezes and travel restrictions, stopped lending Russia money on a long term basis, and stopped exporting western technology to a few key oil and defense industries. Much of the other economic damage is from Putin sanctioning his own people; all the shortages of imported food and consumer goods are from sanctions imposed by Russia, not the west.

If the west reaches the point of no longer accepting rubles, shutting off all access to western credit and financial markets, or stops trading with Russia completely Russia would collapse. Putin is playing a dangerous game with his own country for his own personal gain, and is going to lose one way or another. The world is not going to just sit by and do nothing while Putin threatens the stability of the world by claiming "Crimea is mine! Eastern ukraine is mine! The entire arctic and north pole is mine!"

[–]kern_q1 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

The low oil prices are the major reason for their current economic pain. The thing is that they have no incentive to stop their current activities because the oil prices are not going to go up.

[–]sceltwi 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Russia has been an economic train wreck for decades. And it has been losing power and influence for decades. Every time the oil price falls, the country stands on the brink of ruin. As Russia remains aggressive and hostile to the developed world, the continued balkanization of Russia is only a question of time. No threat of war can change that.

Which superpowers are you talking about? There is only one.

[–]PhilosopherBat 12ポイント13ポイント  (4子コメント)

It's going to be a bad year or two for the Russian economy. But it was nice of them to help out with Iran and getting their oil back on the market.

Edit: there are way to many down votes being thrown around in this thread.

[–]Benjamminmiller 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's going to be a bad year or two for the Russian economy.

How novel!

[–]MacShepherd 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Damn, that's a shame /s

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Man, who would have thought Crimea would be so expensive?!

[–]997tt 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

The economy will eventually recover but Ukraine isn't getting its peninsula back, unfortunately.

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 14ポイント15ポイント  (0子コメント)

The Russian motto since 1917, our economy will eventually recover!

[–]mr_supaco 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Evil conquerors get what evil conquerors deserve.

[–]jacobianjkj 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Its loathsome to see all the Russophobes in one place.

[–]HS_00 -1ポイント0ポイント  (21子コメント)

The Saudi oil overproduction plan is working.

[–]godless_communism -1ポイント0ポイント  (15子コメント)

Yeah... but I have a funny feeling the US is gonna have to kiss Saudi ass for a while and it's not gonna be fun.

[–]smallblacksun 20ポイント21ポイント  (6子コメント)

The Saudis are keeping oil production high in an attempt to drive US shale oil producers out of business....

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

And punish Russia, also we don't know why.

[–]vancouver_boy 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Syria probably

[–]DickCheesePussyJuice 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oh yes, that is why we would punish Russia, I'm just saying we don't actually know why Saudi Arabia is doing what they are doing, it's all just speculation.

[–]nowhereman1280 14ポイント15ポイント  (3子コメント)

Saudi Arabia tanked oil prices in an attempt to knock US frackers out of business. It's not working very well and is costing them now. The Saudi's aren't exactly gaining much from this right now as their entire patronage economy is cut off from the easy money spigot. Really this is a case of US technological progress effecting a sea change shift in the global balance of power and it's really quite impressive.

[–]tempacct011235 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Hopefully we'll transition to renewables before oil pops back.

[–]floopyloopy 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

Saudis havent increased production in a long time though . . .

[–]johnturkey 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Plunges??? really?