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The impending halving really calms my nerves (self.Bitcoin)

rocketsurgeon87 が 投稿

I got into Bitcoin a year ago and experienced the entire secular bear market of Bitcoin, but I really have to say that only having another year of 9% inflation, and the fact that inflation gets to less than 2% in the next five years really makes me feel safer about bitcoin as a store of value.

After the halving ecen a 4.4% inflation is a little rough, but its definitely survivable knowing that it is temporary.

I'm not sure about you guys, but I think I can withstand another tough bear market, maybe pickup a few more coins along the way because I know that in a few years the market won't be flooded with fresh supply of new coins. The future is stable.

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[–]jrmxrf 14ポイント15ポイント  (8子コメント)

Relax. Whether some people want to believe it or not, we're past the experiment part. Different things may shape its future, but Bitcoin is here to stay.

Taking some time to think about the problem of decentralized currency, issue of initial distribution and trust in it, that's all there's needed to stay calm.

Do you think that in the future value will be stored as digital currency? Think hard and come to some strong conclusion.

If the answer is yes, then the value must persist even if currency evolves and technology changes. If it wouldn't do that in case of Bitcoin, you wouldn't be able to trust any newer one because at some point it may also get deprecated. So if we are to use ones and zeros as storage of our wealth, the value that is stored currently as Bitcoin must stay.

[–]jmw74 1ポイント2ポイント  (7子コメント)

Do you think that in the future value will be stored as digital currency?

If the answer is yes, then the value must persist even if currency evolves and technology changes.

This is not necessarily true. Bitcoin is specifically a censorship resistant digital currency. You have to consider the future of that separately.

Personally I think bitcoin and the underground economy will have a symbiotic relationship and both will grow. Will it destroy the "above ground" economy? I very much doubt it. If no one's trying to stop you, why would you go underground?

The bitcoin ledger isn't going anywhere. It may fork many times, but the fork point is in the future, not the past. There's no legitimate reason at this point not to bootstrap a new ledger technology with the current state of the bitcoin ledger. It was a fair start and there probably can't be another one.

[–]jrmxrf 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

There can be and will be tons of them. Thanks to sidechains maybe you will be even able to transfer your value to them. They can also be used to track value stored in something else (e.g. stocks, domains).

But it's impossible for them to gain value based on digital currency scarcity if there is to be such thing in the future. Because once you start creating new ledgers as storage of value, you ruin scarcity.

So if we are going to have value based on digital currency scarcity in the future, it's going to be the value currently stored in Bitcoin.

[–]jmw74 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Because once you start creating new ledgers as storage of value, you ruin scarcity.

There's lots of different fiat currencies made from practically worthless paper (or digital bits), but their value is still nonzero.

I think there will always be multiple currencies because there are feature tradeoffs. It's not just a matter of network effect. However there is probably not room for more than a handful of players. The rest will be tiny niches.

[–]Phrenico 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

You are misunderstanding sidechains then. Sidechains are altcoins that enforce scarcity by being provably redeemable for bitcoins.

[–]jrmxrf 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I suggest reading my sentence with sidechains again.

[–]Phrenico 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Because once you start creating new ledgers as storage of value, you ruin scarcity

This threw me off.

[–]b_coin -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

This is not necessarily true. Bitcoin is specifically a censorship resistant digital currency

It is not censorship resistant. It is currently being censored in many countries around the globe.

[–]jmw74 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

No it isn't. It may be illegal but that isn't actually stopping anyone. It's just a small technical hurdle to run over Tor.

[–]amnesiac-eightyfour 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Same here, but a possible fork is making me a bit more nervous again :)

[–]rePAN6517 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think we'll successfully get past the block size debate by March probably. Assuming that happens, I really like where that puts us. Worries behind us and a lucrative halving just a few short months away.

[–]pokertravis 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Now tell me how this makes you feel:

Now the possible area for evolution is that if, say, an inflation rate of between 1% and 3% is now considered desirable and appropriate in Sweden, then, if it is really controllable, why shouldn’t a rate between 1/2 % and 3/2 % be even more desirable?

I think of the possibility that a good sort of international currency might EVOLVE before the time when an official establishment might occur.

…my personal view is that a practical global money might most favorably evolve through the development first of a few regional currencies of truly good quality. And then the “integration” or “coordination” of those into a global currency would become just a technical problem. (Here I am thinking of a politically neutral form of a technological utility

The currencies being compared, like now the euro, the dollar, the yen, the pound, the swiss franc, the swedish kronor, etc. can be viewed with critical eyes by their users and by those who maybe have the option of whether or not or how to use one of them. This can lead to pressure for good quality and consequently for a lessened rate of inflationary deprecation in value.

20 years of lectures on the mysterious topic of "ideal money": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr.

[–]nimanator 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

Everything that is 100% known and predictable is already priced in. So none of what anyone says about current vs future bitcoin inflation rates, halving schedules & timing, newly mined coins next year vs this year, etc. is relevant to the price (=purchasing power) of Bitcoin.

[–]rocketsurgeon87[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

That is assuming that it is a perfectly efficient market which this is far from. Although its possible that it is already priced in, it is possible that it is not priced in right now.

[–]foolish_austrian 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes. Bitcoin cannot be an efficient market because it would requires that people first understand the consequences of future inflation rates in order to price them in. I suspect that 99% of people have not even considered the impact of the next several block halving, and are therefore unable to have include it in their valuations (which remains near zero for most). The last block halving was misunderstood and called a bubble. I believe next year the same will happen. It will take 2020 for the average person to realize what is happening.

[–]SpaceTire 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Price is not baked in. There are literally BILLIONS of people who haven't heard of bitcoin yet. When each of them want one whole bitcoin, you will see the price do things that couldn't have been predicted or baked in economic theory

[–]JoeSmitson 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

The term inflation relates to prices. Since almost no products or services are priced in btc (they are rather priced in fiat and quoted in BTC), inflation is an irrelevant term. It's just the exchange-determined price that matters. And yes, the increasing money supply influences that rate by miners dumping, but that's not inflation.

[–]Not_Pictured 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Inflation can interchangeably mean an increase in the money supply, or an increase in prices. Neither are wrong.

[–]rydan -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

You really shouldn't be worried about 9% inflation. The thing about Bitcoin is you know exactly what the inflation is today and tomorrow. Knowing that means it will all be priced into the market unlike real currencies whose inflation is never known until after the fact.