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Wednesday Sticky (self.badeconomics)

wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[M] が 投稿 - stickied post

Here's the Wednesday Sticky.

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[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 10ポイント11ポイント  (3子コメント)

If you're all interested, go to /r/SandersForPresident and read all the Sanders equivalent of Paulbots defend Bernie's vile statements about immigrants.

The best yet: "he has nuanced opinions."

EDIT: A great jobs program for Bernie Sanders would be building a wall between Mexico and the United States. It has all the benefits Sanders wants! "High paying" temporary construction jobs, infrastructure spending, xenophobia and makes Mexicans and Americans worse off!

I wonder why no one thought of this program before?

[–]alexhoyerhoard plywood now for our ANCAP overlords 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

Think about it, there are two countries side by side with similar wealth levels, they decide to implement open borders, but one is a low-tax, low-public service country, the other is a high-tax, high-public service country. Alone, each model can be sustainable, but if you add open borders to the mix, then people who can't work: students, the old, the disabled, etc... would move to the second country to profit from the social benefits. Meanwhile, healthy adult workers would move to the first to benefit from the low tax level and keep more of their wealth. In the end, the welfare State collapses due to a loss of revenue and always higher demands for benefits.

Fucking quality prax

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well it's 100%, half of Europe collapsed upon the creation of the EU... Wait a minute?!

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 3ポイント4ポイント  (11子コメント)

I hope Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are the candidates for the presidential election. How boring would Bush/Clinton be.

[–]UltSomnia 1ポイント2ポイント  (10子コメント)

I don't know if there's any correlation between being popular this early and winning.

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 1ポイント2ポイント  (9子コメント)

I don't think either Sanders or Trump are actually popular...

[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (8子コメント)

Trump is. Most democrats I know hate Sanders.

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 0ポイント1ポイント  (7子コメント)

Is Trump really likely to get the nomination?

If he did I think it'll be a slam dunk for the Democrats.

[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I doubt it. If he did, Dems instantly win the Presidency.

In the primary debates, I think Jeb and Rubio will put him in his place.

The only problem with Trump is that he can run his campaign on his own wallet. So Trump could possibly stay in for a long time.

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

And the same for Sanders, inst-kill if he was put forward.

[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think so, yeah.

[–]UltSomnia 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

IIRC, the GOP went through a billion fad candidates last time, eg Santorum, cane, other people, before settling on the safe Mitt Romney. I don't see why it'll be different this time. I don't know who this year's Romney is, but it isn't Trump.

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Why does everyone seem to think I think Trump will win? He's a joke candidate, like Sanders.

[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

This year's Romney is Bush or Rubio. Most likely Bush but after reading that Vox article on Rubio I'd like to see more of what he has to say.

[–]schnaken 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm convinced that Cain was just trolling. He was actually very qualified and no serious person quotes the Pokemon movie at a political rally.

[–]wyman856I think, therefore I am a horse 2ポイント3ポイント  (14子コメント)

Out of curiosity, are there any hardcore grand strategy and/or boardgamers here?

I know at my university, there's a lot of economics people who do both and I wonder how that compares at large.

Grand strategy games I play are CKII and EUIV, although in this department my group has mainly been playing CKII for the past few months.

In terms of boardgames, I play practically everything. Euro games tend to be my least favorite overall, Terra Mystica is my jam though! As of late, I have gotten crazy into Star Wars Imperial Assault.

[–]haalidoodiOn second thought, let's not go to r/econ. It is a silly place. 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Civ 5 and Vicky II here, if I didn't have tons of work through school I probably would play EUIV as well. I imagine the min-maxing nature of these games naturally appeals to the same crowd that ends up studying economics.

[–]smurphy1What is fiat? Baby don't tax me. 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Here. Though not an actual economist (just find it an interesting topic. Same with History).

I've been playing EU4 recently while waiting on HOI4. A few months ago I was playing a lot of VicII. For boardgames I really enjoy a good game of diplomacy or Twilight Imperium.

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

EU is horribly difficult to me.

[–]smurphy1What is fiat? Baby don't tax me. 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

EU is the easiest of the games I listed there. HOI and VicII are far more complex.

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I've only played EUII, and only as Aztecs, it was not easy.

Edit: Correction, it's EUIII I own.

Have you played CK?

[–]smurphy1What is fiat? Baby don't tax me. 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I have played CK2 and enjoyed it a little at first but now it doesn't seem to draw my interest any more.

[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I play Civ V. Though I mostly play FPSs (been a PC shooter nerd since I was 4 years old) and MMOs.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

I've been repeatedly watching myself drive Sweden into the ground in Vicky II. That economic system is hard to master. Everytime I raise taxes too high I get massive rebellions.

[–]haalidoodiOn second thought, let's not go to r/econ. It is a silly place. 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Oh hey, I used to play Sweden a ton! Here's a hint: don't worry about money too much, research prestige techs ASAP (your ridiculous starting literacy will help), become a GP, sphere Denmark and form Scandinavia. From there, grow your pop and build your factories while you have state capitalism. Alcohol and furniture are a good start (sphere Brazil for tons of tropical wood) with cars/radios/airplanes/etc. good in the late game.

I've rarely had rebellions purely because of purely high taxes, make sure there's no other factors raising militancy (though keep in mind that high militancy can also be used to force through those sweet, sweet social reforms). Colonizing Africa is a good option and source of resources, manpower and prestige, while staying out of European wars as much as you can will give you a fair advantage. By around 1880 you should have the manpower (and more importantly, the tech advantage) to take on Russia 1v1 for Finland; keep your clergy and craftsmen numbers high to maximize literacy and factory output, eventually switching to laissez faire or interventionism.

Let me know if you're having some specific issues, I've been learning a lot about the game myself with my Argentina and Brazil games so I've got a lot to share.

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Some questions:

  1. Should I be manually managing the trade system?
  2. Once I hit GP is it worth the prestige penalty to sit out of a crisis? Or should I try to join up on the stronger side?
  3. How many clerks to I really need? I've been aiming for 2:1 for a craftsman clerk ratio.
  4. Likewise, how much clergy do I actually need?

[–]haalidoodiOn second thought, let's not go to r/econ. It is a silly place. 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

  1. While the trade screen has some great info on it, including what you're able to import/export, how much of such and such a resource is available to your nation (especially useful for coal, which you'll probably be permanently be struggling with--sphering Spain can be an easy way for Sweden to get more coal though), you can't really do much except stockpile, which actually takes away from what is available to your factories and pops. It's good for buying excess factory production (an alternative to direct subsidies in some cases), but not that important.

  2. I usually wait as long as possible and join the strongest side, though in some cases it's worth sitting out, especially since GB can be a real wild card (most of its military is scattered all over the world, so even if it's the top military power, a strong France or Germany can easily beat them). Fortify your border with Russia and maintain a strong navy, and you're pretty much invulnerable from attack though.

  3. Clerks are one of the few things I haven't really figured out, though the wiki can probably help you with that. 2:1 seems awfully high though, but maybe that's just me.

  4. Clergy boost literacy, and provide research points up to 2%. Since Sweden doesn't have to worry about literacy too much (though I would still recommend raising it over time to boost research), 2% is a good number to aim for--anything over that and you'll only be getting marginal benefits in literacy improvement, which isn't really worth the costs for Sweden.

[–]irondeepbicycleI got 99 problems but technological unemployment ain't one 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I went through a huge board game phase with some friends. My favorites were probably Puerto Rico and Resistance. most of my reliable board game friends moved away, so I might get more into it in the future.

I also went through a huge Civ V phase that I'm mostly over. Haven't been gaming much lately.

[–]RIPCountryMac 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Currently playing HoI3, waiting for 4. Tried CK2 for a while but couldn't get into it.

I just wish I could get a modern/Cold War version of Hearts of Iron.

[–]Homeboy_Jesus 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm a big fan of chess. Best board game of all time IMHO. However, I also enjoy the economics that go into a game of Settlers of Catan.

[–]haalidoodiOn second thought, let's not go to r/econ. It is a silly place. 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

Please forgive English, I am Polska.

My name is Haali Dooditsky. I grow up in smal farm in Eeast Poland to have make potatos for monies. Father say “Haali, potato harvest is bad. Need you to have study professional Econ in Amerikanski for make many invest in Eeast Poland so make monies for head-scarf for babushka.” I bring honor and investings to fatherland and babushka. Sorry for is not have English. Please into investings Eeast Poland.

-excerpt, “haalidoodi: an autobiography”

[–]btfx 0ポイント1ポイント  (6子コメント)

Last week I posted a poorly formed multi-question post, with the first part being about trickle-down economics. So let me try again:

Where exactly does trickle-down break down?

Let's say there is some arbitrary need for fiscal stimulus, someone will get more income, at which point they have several transaction opportunities for their extra buck:

  • Spend money on consumption
  • Spend money on capital or capital maintenance
  • Spend money on securities or bonds
  • Put it in the bank
  • Put it in a matress

For the first four, this just makes spending the money someone else's problem. Either the goods producer, the labor seller in the case of maintenance. The speculator, or the loans/finance department at the bank.

For the mattress case the stimulus is effectively stopped/negated.

I postulate that rich people are less likely to stuff a mattress than poor people, therefore stimulus targeting them is going to be more effective.

So what is wrong with this model? (Or perhaps, what is most wrong, or best demonstrates the wrongness of this model?)

Do we just point to data and say "Bush tax cuts are less effective stimulus than food stamps" or is there some theory trying to explain why?

[–]smurphy1What is fiat? Baby don't tax me. 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Banks don't lend deposits or out of their reserve position. The only difference between stuffing a savings account and stuffing a mattress is the savings account earns interest for the saver and slightly lowers lending costs for the bank (by increasing reserves at a cheaper rate than borrowing from other banks). I would also add that buying newly issued treasuries is effectively the same thing as a jumbo savings account. In all 3 instances the spending stops.

Another point is what the intention of stimulus is. Let's assume a stimulus that went to just the rich could increase GDP more than one that goes to poor people but it doesn't result in as many jobs for the poor or wage growth. Does that make the trickle down more effective? Depends on the goals of the stimulus.

[–]haalidoodiOn second thought, let's not go to r/econ. It is a silly place. 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

Let's just get this straight: economists have never advocated "trickle-down economics". Economists advocate supply side policies (meaning those meaning to expand the aggregate supply part of the economy) under certain circumstances, though there's a lot of confusion over the definition of that as well (tax breaks are more demand-side than supply-side, while infrastructure and education investment are firmly supply-side policies with some immediate demand-side effects as well).

I postulate that rich people are less likely to stuff a mattress than poor people

How do you figure this? It's fairly well established that the poor have much lower propensity to save than the wealthy.

I'm sorry if I'm coming off as a bit aggressive, but one of my greatest pet peeves is confusion over what supply-side, demand-side and trickle-down mean.

[–]_Rory_T.K. Whitaker's Ghost 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

The user is asking what is wrong with (what some people call) trickle-down economics, not what it is.

[–]btfx 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm sorry if I'm coming off as a bit aggressive, but

Not at all, I never claimed trickle-down was "real economics", I'm explicitly asking why it's not. I'm also aware that supply side is a real thing and not some Koch brothers Illuminati scheme.

I postulate that rich people are less likely to stuff a mattress than poor people

How do you figure this? It's fairly well established that the poor have much lower propensity to save than the wealthy.

Not disputing that, I specifically separated bank saving (where you might expect only the reserve ratio to get "stuffed") and literal cash hoarding.

[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

How do you figure this? It's fairly well established that the poor have much lower propensity to save than the wealthy.

Actually /u/besttrousers has stated the opposite - people think the MPC (1-MPS) is higher for the poor but it really isn't.

[–]haalidoodiOn second thought, let's not go to r/econ. It is a silly place. 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm surprised to hear that--what source was he using for it? It seems extremely counterintuitive...but who am I to doubt besttrousers?

[–]PonderayFollows an AR(1) process 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Any suggestions for books to augment MWG? I have Varian but would like something which covers game theory in more detail. Good exercise selections are a major plus.

[–]wumbotarianI want to be the Walrasian Auctioneer when I grow up[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Man, Economy and State.

Sorry, couldn't resist.