[Meta] TrueReddit discusses /be

kevstev · 3時間前

Yes, as proportion of labor force all but two months out of the last 11 have broken the prior minimum. The trend down in the LFPR and lots of older workers using DI in place of UI bias this down though, while the labor market is doing quite well you shouldn't read hitting minimums as doing extraordinarily well.

jimrosenz · 3時間前

No. /thread

HealthcareEconomist3 · 17時間前

Most of the empirical evidence shows that there is little-to-no effect from moderate increases in the minimum wage

To be fair the data we use for those studies is utter shit though. I hope Dube uses his jew-gold to go out and build a useful dataset from payroll data so we can put the argument to bed once and for all.

Unresolved issues for me as far as the current research;

Incidence of the additional labor cost, i'm not aware of any decent work looking at compression beyond right above the MW.
What it does to mobility, particularly interested in post-graduation for both secondary and tertiary.
Changes in HCD, are firms more likely to use unpaid internships or not offer internships at all in the presence of a MW?

HealthcareEconomist3 · 17時間前

What is the argument against the human/horse comparison?

Horses don't go out and buy hookers & blow. Horses cannot ever be more then horses, their skills are finite.

If we can make a robot that is more dexterous, smarter, stronger, etc than humans, why would anyone ever hire a human to do something?

See the replies here.

If I could mass produce a robot that is superior to the average human in every objective way, how could that not affect human employment?

Then you are in to magic post-scarcity land, what point is there to employment when you don't use money?

HealthcareEconomist3 · 17時間前

What if machines were built that produced equivalent human labor for less cost in many areas

This has just increased productivity, congratulations on making humans more productive and labor more valuable.

would there always be enough demand to soak up excess human labor supply?

Over what timescale?

Short-run a technology shock can create unemployment. That technology shock acts on prices and labor demand elsewhere resulting in a trend back to full employment, the rate at which the new structural unemployment bleeds off depends on a number of factors such as quality of education systems, slack in labor supply elsewhere etc. If you look at this over a lifetime scale you would see additional growth in lifetime incomes vs if the shock had not occurred as technology shocks increase labor skills (and thus income), the gains to each income group will not be the same (our old friend SBTC) and there will be some downwards mobility but all income groups will probably benefit.

You don't get in to falling labor demand land until you start approaching post-scarcity land.

Would the share between labor and capital always average out to be the same ratio over time as it has been historically?

Possibly not. The literature on automation generally finds growing inequality as the primary concern of automation but its not clear if it will simply be SBTC or SBTC and falling labor share. I would postulate that the main mechanism for labor share to fall would be the technology shocks occurring at such short intervals that employment doesn't have time to recover between them, we haven't seen falling labor share with technology shocks in the past so its somewhat unclear what this might look like in the future.

HealthcareEconomist3 · 19時間前

A massive increase in unemployment due to technology is inevitable anyhow

No its not. Humans are not horses.

HealthcareEconomist3 · 19時間前

If NYC's data is to be believed then about 1.5m workers or 29% of the labor force, their LF stats don't seem to account for external workers though so the real % will be smaller.

HealthcareEconomist3 · 20時間前

Idiots.

Edit:

Byron Brown - Mayor of Buffalo
Kevin Ryan - Tech billionaire
Mike Fishman - SEIU guy.

So we have a politician, a tech guy and a union guy.

MartialBob · 20時間前

One couldnt say how they gonna adapt to these child policy.

It isn't a case of adaptation its a statistical & demographic issue. The issue isn't even simply their very low fertility rate (which is also a problem in the west) but that as it originated from policy rather then natural development its not simply a trend down (see India for a good example of a developing middle-income country, smooth trend down) but rather extreme swings down over the course of a relatively short period.

China's LFPR is expected to begin to decline next year and then accelerate towards 2030 where they will have the most significant 65+ skew in the world (exceeding even Japan), 2030-2035 LFPR is expected to decline by 8%. 2050 they have another swing, by this time 28% of their population will be 65+ (compared to 9% today). Then they enter the quickly falling population phase, another problem in and of itself.

While China certainly isn't going to go backwards its likely India, Indonesia or parts of Eastern Europe will displace China as forever bull.

usrname42 · 21時間前

As we move further into climate change driven migration

While migration does increase with food security issues that migration is intensely regional, populations tend to move around in the same country/region until the acute crisis is resolved. We don't see any additional migration between countries with different levels of development, they are moving away from a crisis not towards a destination so populations tend to remain regional.

Climate based out migration only tends to occur if there is already developed agriculture (IE migration is the result of a change in the local labor market) and still remains very small (estimates for the US place it as <3% additional migration from the corn belt states by 2100 even assuming a 4 degrees A2 scenario). What additional economic pressures exist for your average Zambian citizen with 4 degrees of warming vs today?

there's going to be a lot more need for redistributive land access

Why? Until 4 degrees we have a net increase in potential arable land, beyond 4 its uncertain as with all other projections.

overdeveloped world's

The what?

Much of the refugee crisis in European is at least in part driven by climate stresses.

No its driven by economic perceptions and conflict. Europe is still dealing with waves and waves of Iraqi and Afghani migrants who were able to leave following the invasions.

If Hansen is right the entire population of Bangladesh may need to be relocated within 50 years.

Even assuming the Bangladeshi evacuation distributed among the world the movement is still not unusually high. Even presuming a concentration scenario (moving them all to India) there would still be a number of migration events over the last couple of decades that would be larger as proportion of baseline target population. Also if their current rate of net migration is maintained then they will have a third of their current population in 50 years.

What does an influx of 156 million carbon refugees do to GDP?

Increases it, substantially.

OmahaVike · 22時間前

How do you think a flat $15/hr wage across such disparate local economies will affect them?

Soylent green.

spaceghoti · 23時間前

The cited data is does not support the average worker earnings proposition, that's not what its measuring. Also I would hope I am making falsifiable claims, if I wasn't (and the original author was not) how could they be proven?

HealthcareEconomist3 · 23時間前

No i'm not, I just generate drama. I wouldn't really feel comfortable being as well liked as the one true god, I don't put nearly as much thought in to my posts and spending a couple of decades in specialisms means my current knowledge is not nearly as broad as his.

If he says something that contradicts something I say then he is probably right and I am probably wrong, stacked ranking for the reddit he is easily at the top.

wumbotarian · 23時間前

Locke.
Agnostic as all good scientists are.
Morality is subjective, ethics are objective.
Agree.
Dove.
Yay.
Islam.
Nay.
Partially agree. They do better then most of the other social sciences but applying the scientific method to sociology is extremely difficult compared to real sciences like econ :)

HealthcareEconomist3 · 1日前

Within the next decade we will see underperforming hospitals being acquired by larger companies

Concentration may increase (its certainly not very high right now) but why would you expect this to do anything to margins? There really isn't economies of scale to be had in the sector, buying all your equipment for a chain nationally and then operating a logistical network is more expensive then just having hospitals operate their own procurement. Even single-payer systems don't use national procurement except for high cost equipment.

With technology at its side, the new owners will become more aggressive about payment

The problem right now are the two public payers who don't pay cost for treatment, given those operating facilities generally don't have a choice about accepting public patients and private insurance is not particularly price elastic where are these new profits going to come from?

EHR is probably going to improve efficiency of coding & billing but the savings will be very small, there is nothing else being deployed or in development which would be expected to have an impact on this.

Labor costs are going to stop rising as quickly, stay steady then go down

In a couple of specialisms (notably internal & family) the number of licensed physicians is going to fall over the next decade as licensure rates are bellow replacement rate due to retirement. Healthcare already is the fastest growing sector in terms of labor demand and this is going to accelerate, in a market where demand is growing but supply is growing more slowly then demand what would you expect to happen to prices?

Quality is going to go up, as education requirements increase

What education requirements?

are you trying to push a certain agenda around these woods and downvote anyone who doesn't agree?

Yes, I am really an industry shill.

HealthcareEconomist3 · 1日前

Mass has lots of work too, plus you don't have to work for the gubment.

spaceghoti · 1日前

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=AV_AN_WAGE

Swiss Franc, 2013 - 84 366 US Dollar, 2013 - 56 340

Why do we adjust using PPP? That dataset is also not actually tracking average wages, its reconstructed data so that countries without strong statistical agencies can be counted. This is the actual Swiss data.

HealthcareEconomist3 · 1日前

The margin on facilities has been trending down for some time (as has the number of for-profit facilities), the average for the sector has been negative for well over a decade now. ER's in general are extreme loss leaders (obviously grain of salt but AHA claims there are none that operate at a profit, there may be some but its certainly an insignificant number), you only really see profits of any substance in surgical hospitals and others that operate mostly outside the primary delivery system.

Even in payments the trend is towards not-for-profit as they have such small margins, when Anthem finishes transitioning back to NFP BCBS will be majority non-profit again. United are heading in the same direction.

The only health sector where there is high profits is devices, everything else is either within the normal range or below it.

AutoModerator · 1日前

I have been outed three times, one of those times was by a colleague. When the automation thing started to happen he was emailing me pictures of horses every day for a week, you don't want to work with redditors.

Short of doxing its not a big deal, being able to shoot the shit anonymously has its merits but unless you are saying things you wouldn't say to people IRL its not a big deal.

AutoModerator · 1日前

Neigh.

HealthcareEconomist3 · 1日前

Would rather have healthcare completely out of the private sector. Illness and profit have proved to not be a good marriage.

The number of countries that use predominantly private delivery systems would dispute this.

Even in the US profit making hospitals are fairly rare; ~8% of facilities with a trauma rating are private for-profit, ~27% are public and the remainder are private not-for-profit. On acute care beds (what you end up in when you dial 911) ~83% are public, public hospitals tend to be much larger and frequently acute care beds in private facilities are paid for with public funds.

HealthcareEconomist3 · 1日前

Which dataset? Under average annual wages the highest number I see for Switzerland is CHF84,366

HealthcareEconomist3 · 1日前

Highly recommend a visit to it if you ever get the chance.

I worked in Geneva for 6 months many years ago, last time I was there was 4 years ago and while I do agree its very pleasant the Swiss have as much personality as your average corpse. I quite enjoy the boisterous outgoing Americans :)

I hope that this election we get some candidates will turn towards the Swiss healthcare system in order to fix America's.

The Swiss based their recent reforms on the German system and ACA was somewhat based on the German system too. The only significant differences are the Swiss don't have any public payers (like Germany they just provide a subsidy for individuals to purchase private insurance) and they use an all-payer system.

They actually skew more towards high-deductibles then the US does and the statutory insurance has a co-insurance, they are the only country which beats us in average out of pocket expenses.

HealthcareEconomist3

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