全 61 件のコメント

[–]Devilshrimp 28ポイント29ポイント  (9子コメント)

And the fun part is that you are just as likely at getting it the next attempt as you were the first time. Yaaay, probability...

[–]Sy_ThePhotoGuy[S] 8ポイント9ポイント  (6子コメント)

“When nothing seems to help, I go look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that blow that did it, but all that had gone before.” ~Jacob Riis

[–]Tizzysawr 18ポイント19ポイント  (5子コメント)

Not quite true in this case. When a stonecutter hammers at a rock, it slowly weakens it so each time he hammers it it is measurably more likely that the stone will break.

Here, however, a dice is being rolled. In these cases, there's no such thing as a probabilistic memory, so to speak, therefore each time you roll the dice your chance of getting the desired outcome is exactly the same.

Put it like this: Let's see you take a coin that isn't loaded. You throw it five times, the coin landing in head all five times. For the sixth time you throw it, what's the chance it will land in head? Well, 50%. The very same chance you had the first time. In standard probabilities the results from previous attempts do not change the likely results for further ones. So, while the chance of heads six times in a row is 1/64, the chance of heads when you throw a coin GIVEN that the past five throws have landed in heads is... 50%. Past outcomes do not affect further ones when a dice is thrown or with similar experiments.

[–]Sy_ThePhotoGuy[S] 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

Yeah, I realized that the quote didn't quite make sense in this context as soon as I posted it. I left it though because I like it. :x

[–]BigFinn 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Let this man feel his feelings!

[–]RykahPo 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Dude I swear my dice don't even have mounts on them. It's like Blizz have decided I don't deserve Phoenix's and shit.

[–]Fuzati 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Get out of here with your logic and science

[–]GrayMagicGamma 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Could be crueler. Given that it will eventually spawn, continuing your camp for the TLPD (or Aeonax, the voidtalon, or that seahorse for that matter) means that it's more likely to spawn in the next hour than the last. It discourages getting up to eat, sleep, etc, especially since only the first player to tag it gets the mount. At least with dungeon/raid drops the chances of your next run dropping the mount will be the same regardless of if you run it five minutes in the future or five months.

[–]RykahPo 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's exactly your reasoning that I've never tried to farm one of those.

[–]JordanTH 9ポイント10ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ooh, ouch. Just goes to show that RNG can be very, very cruel.

[–]samisamer1 10ポイント11ポイント  (3子コメント)

Care to share your addon please? That looks great for a mount farmer like me. I'll greatly appreciate it.

[–]shebba123 2ポイント3ポイント  (15子コメント)

I don't understand...

Why does it say that it has 99% drop chance?

[–]Sy_ThePhotoGuy[S] 21ポイント22ポイント  (14子コメント)

It doesn't have a 99% drop chance.

Basically, 99% of people would have gotten it in this amount of runs. The math the addon does is 1-(1-x)y, where x is the drop chance of the mount (in this case, .01) and y is the number of runs.

The 1-x is the probability of not getting the mount, and raising it to the y is basically saying "you did not get the mount this many times."

This means that (1-x)y represents the probability that you do NOT get the mount in y amount of runs, and subtracting that from 1 gets the probability that you get the mount in y amount of runs.

edit: sorry for the math lesson, I just like probability

[–]zelgaddiss 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Probability is awesome. I just could not be bothered to type it all out

[–]confessrazia 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Why would you use an add-on like that? I'd hate to see how much time I wasted.

[–]Goldfish461 0ポイント1ポイント  (6子コメント)

Reminds me of the time where I ran Magister's Terrace for the first time and got the Hawkstrider(You'll just have to take my word on this, I don't have any proof besides the mount)

[–]Kazas88 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I did 4 ulduar runs to get my mimirons head

[–]Tizzysawr 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Happened to me with Deathwing on 25M Heroic. First kill I ever had was about three months ago soloing the instance.

Mount dropped, I almost died of happiness.

On the other hand, I have killed Baron Riverdance or however the Stratholme guy is called at least 100 times now. No mount yet :(

[–]PsychoSemantics 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

The image of him Irish dancing is too funny XD

[–]TheyCallMeJetG 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Took me ~270 dont give up it is worth it.

[–]fahaddddd 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I got the white bear from the first daily. Still can't believe it.

[–]xxjakotsusamaxx 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I was just leveling my rogue (6th alt at the time) and Rivendare's mount dropped and I won it. The 4 other people in the party including my friend were so mad because they had been farming it on their mains and I just won it as a level 40something. I felt so bad but so good at the same time, haha.

[–]theshoover 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well someone has to be.

[–]greedisgood999999 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Keep at it, you'll get it eventually, that addon is great for making you feel shit, I wish it would still show stuff you already got so I could feel the good as well.

[–]fahaddddd 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

You got jikun in 1 try and rukhmar in 5 and you are complaining ?!

[–]Sy_ThePhotoGuy[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

No, I didn't. The add-on only shows things I don't have.

[–]fahaddddd 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ohh. Alright, well wish you luck with the drake!

[–]Deathstreet 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

one shotted that one, Unlucky bro

[–]Hyunion 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

i feel you. i have 200 kills on the dude and still no drop

[–]Desolaice 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I bought on BMAH for 29k. There was another kind of luck.

[–]BabyGandhi 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

what addon is this?

[–]revboy1 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I got the raptor mount in zul gurub on my second run. I was extremely happy as I saved up gold to buy the savage raptor on ah. So I saved my self a lot of gold and got a cool mount as well.

[–]Breditor 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

460 attempts is cute. Try 600 without success so far.

[–]Sy_ThePhotoGuy[S] 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

Getting there! At 549 now! :)

[–]nawalrage 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

I still cant believe I got Invincible at my first run

[–]kriegsnebel 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

It took me two expansions of farming to get that. Ugh.

[–]Smichty 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I got Blue Proto drake while farming achievement for red one. I got it from 2nd try because I fcked up first time :P It looks so awesome on frost undead DK

[–]TheyCallMeJetG 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

My lucky ones were Mimiron's head (~20?) and Flametalon (1st). All the other rares I have have taken me a very very very long time to acquire.

[–]WhiteLama -2ポイント-1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Looking at those three first mounts on the list and how short it took you to get them, serves you right.

[–]Sy_ThePhotoGuy[S] 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

I haven't gotten those yet. The addon only shows ones that I don't have.

[–]WhiteLama 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Oh thank god.

Since the addon already said "Lucky" on them, I assumed you'd gotten lucky and lotted them.

[–]Winnership 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Makes me not miss this game

[–]GenVG -3ポイント-2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Some people don't seem to understand the fact that every attempt at the mount is a SEPARATE roll. So, there is no gaining chance to get it no matter how many times you do it. You receive the same chance to get the mount on the 1st roll as you would the 10000th roll.

[–]illuminati_on_reddit -2ポイント-1ポイント  (0子コメント)

just to be an thottbot annoying noob

I got it first time........... no really I got it first time when leveling