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The Value of One Bitcoin (i.imgur.com)

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[–]jeanduluoz 17ポイント18ポイント  (6子コメント)

Sometimes I think about "the next bubble" or where bitcoin will be in a year or two. Posts like this make me realize that when we guess about prices at $500 or $1,261 or $5,000, it's all pretty ridiculous.

If or when bitcoin takes market share from gold as a store of value, takes market share from currencies and succeeds payment and remittance providers like Visa, western union, and paypal (or is coopted by them), and the vast growth in human productivity and value through the development of the IoT, a couple thousand dollars is a joke.

It's not guaranteed to happen, and it wouldn't be immediate, but trying to guess the value that BTC will accumulate and its applications is like trying to describe an alien race. It will be more incredible than anything we could imagine.

[–]Password_Is_hunter3 -5ポイント-4ポイント  (2子コメント)

If this happens, it won't be in any of our lifetimes. That's a very long term outlook.

[–]jeanduluoz 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

That a bitcoin is worth 20k? or 50k? It's quite possible that it never happens. It's also quite possible it happens in a few years.

[–]brg444 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

You clearly have no idea the pace at which the world has changed in the last decades and how it projects to carry on changing at an exponential scade in the coming years. Network technologies like Bitcoin have historically taken no more than a decade or two to be adopted on a global scale. If Bitcoin has not achieved a status at the very least on the level described above within the next 10 years then in my humble opinion it will have failed

[–]bitcoinruss[S] 18ポイント19ポイント  (44子コメント)

I made this excel chart to approximate the USD value of a single bitcoin if it reaches a certain market size. The price is calculated by taking the estimated market size and dividing by 20 million. Yes, I know that there will be 21 million bitcoin. I just wanted a pretty chart :)

The source for the size of the world's money supply comes from Vsauce.

[–]greatwolf 10ポイント11ポイント  (35子コメント)

I suppose 20mil is a reasonable estimate assuming 1mil in coins are lost. Not a bad assumption since if satoshi's stack ever moves, that'll crash the market.

[–]figure_d_it_out 12ポイント13ポイント  (27子コメント)

Why necessarily would it crash the market?

[–]MeanOfPhidias 9ポイント10ポイント  (2子コメント)

It wouldn't necessarily crash the market. /u/greatwolf is just thinking about a possible splash that kind of whale could make suddenly posting 1,000,000 sell orders. Also, it's just a difficult variable to account for in your trading strategy, like "What if Bruce Wayne suddenly dumped all his shares of Waynecorp?"

It really isn't possible to say.

[–]figure_d_it_out 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

This is a good answer. I would assume that satoshi wouldn't immediately sell every coin although who knows. Bitcoin is like a little toddler that doesn't know yet how important it is. Maybe satoshi knows and that's why it's the hold mentality.

[–]MeanOfPhidias 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Personally, I think it's a requirement that the coins never move. It's kind like the saying "Eating your own dog food."

But also it opens up lots of questions. Like, what if in 50 years the coins move? What does that say about Satoshi? Age-wise, intelligence wise? Could it be a single person who handed it down? A group of people? A Government agency or body? Is there an ulterior motive? Did we miss something? Is something broken? Is this a thief? A new type of hardware that computes private keys? The list goes on

And the thing is whether it's today, 50 years or 500 years for as long as Bitcoin is relevant those questions will come up. So, to me, I think it's important that Satoshi never be found or move the coins.

[–]notreddingit 4ポイント5ポイント  (13子コメント)

Because that million coins has always been dormant and are generally going to be discounted in any economic formula of the effective supply of BTC.

Seeing any of that BTC move would immediately increase the perceived supply of BTC.

[–]jeanduluoz 11ポイント12ポイント  (7子コメント)

Or price would fall in reaction to the perceived increase in supply, then increase rapidly because there is much greater information symmetry in the market about the supply of coins.

Not saying that would happen but it's just as likely as crashing the market. In my opinion moreso

[–]notreddingit 6ポイント7ポイント  (5子コメント)

Maybe, yeah. Especially if there was some communication from Satoshi to go along with the movement. Then I could definitely see an increase happening.

[–]amnesiac-eightyfour 8ポイント9ポイント  (3子コメント)

Satoshi moving his stash to 1BitcoinEater.... would probably move the price up decently...

[–]notreddingit 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, that would be quite the sight!

[–]SpaceTire 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

thats just irresponsible and I believe satoshi would send those coins to charity over destroying them.

[–]greatwolf -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

that's true, hadn't considered. sending to a burn address provably guarantees there's a reduction in max supply.

[–]imaginary_username 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

From: Satoshi Nakamoto

To: [The World]

Subject: Why I'm moving 1 BTC today

I Need to eat too, okay? Get off my back already!

[–]SpaceTire 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

the price would only fall if those coins were sent to be sold on the exchanges.

If those coins were used to buy mansions all over the world, the price still wouldn't fall until those coins hit the exchanges and were traded for Fiat or alt coins.

[–]anotherrandomname947 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

The price drop would be temporary. It's not true that Satoshi's coins "are generally going to be discounted in any economic formula of the effective supply of BTC". Satoshi's coins are part of the max. 21 million that can ever exist. The attempts to arrive at a price for bitcoin if mainstream adoption happens take into account that there can only ever be just under 21 million bitcoins in existence. So Satoshi's coins, whether they move or don't, are factored in to the attempt to arrive at a price upon mainstream adoption.

[–]priuspilot 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Whoa.. Satoshi is the Federal Reserve of Bitcoin

[–]SpaceTire 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Or the Mother Teresa of Digital Cash.

The choice is his.

[–]giszmo 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Or the Federal Reserve. Preparing for the Bitcoin standard. Once their 5 million bicoins are worth more than all the dollars in the world, they declare redeemability and proof their control over their coins.

[–]Phrenico 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Says who? I fully expect those coins to move once bitcoin is sufficiently dominant.

[–]jeffthedunker 2ポイント3ポイント  (9子コメント)

If he were to spread out all of his coins on all of the major exchanges, there still wouldn't be enough buy orders to absorb his coins at a consistent price.

[–]redekker 1ポイント2ポイント  (8子コメント)

Wait, wait, wait.

How much bitcoin does Satoshi hold?

[–]jeffthedunker 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Satoshi has hella BTC, to say the least.

[–]gynoplasty -1ポイント0ポイント  (6子コメント)

Somewhere north of one million. The only address I know of which is his holds 1 million.

Edit: it's spread out in the coinbase transactions of the blocks he mined.

[–]maaku7Mark Friedenbach - Bitcoin Expert 6ポイント7ポイント  (2子コメント)

Satoshi's coins are not consolidated in that way. You must be thinking of something else. Satoshi coins are exactly where they've always been -- in the coin bases of blocks mined in the early days.

[–]gynoplasty -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

Oh I meant addresses :-)

[–]sapiophile 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't think that makes sense... What do you mean?

[–]paperraincoat 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Don't the Winklevii clones own a million coins as well? I think they could tank the market as well, but again only temporarily.

[–]greatwolf -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

No, Winklevii Ken dolls own closer to 1%, ~210,000 btcs -- that's an order of magnitude less than satoshi.

[–]SpaceTire 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thats 65 million dollars worth of Digital property

[–]anotherrandomname947 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

if satoshi's stack ever moves, that'll crash the market

Temporarily. Any large stash of coins suddenly being sold is going to move the price down in the short term. But only in the short term.

Satoshi's unmoved coins are part of the maximum 21 million that can ever exist. So they are already priced in to estimates of what a single bitcoin could be worth if Bitcoin goes mainstream.

[–]voephilis 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

where can you find his adress?

[–]TheMacMini09 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

He used a new address for all the coins he mined. Just look at the first few blocks - all mines to separate addresses.

[–]scrimrot 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Satoshi told me that after the next halving, he is going to leverage out a short at bitfinex and flood the supply. Greatest troll and long-con ever; a fiat king. /s

[–]chrisguida 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

He can only sell all his coins once.

[–]SpaceTire 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

And that is the best thing you need to know about whales. Once they are chewed up by all the little pihrannas, it will be hard to get all those coins back with out it costing you a bunch more.

[–]peque2 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

And what if he margin trade to the moon?

[–]KillMarcusReed 3ポイント4ポイント  (5子コメント)

Add a column for the price of bits. Basically it is the dollar exchange rate divided by 1 million (because there are one million bits per bitcoin).

Notice that a whole bitcoin will have to be worth $10,000 before a single USD equals single bitcent(satoshi)

Then, sit there for a couple minutes staring at what you're looking at, and think about that shit. Wait for it.

[–]rePAN6517 4ポイント5ポイント  (3子コメント)

You have a minor error - 1 bitcoin will have to be worth $1,000,000 before a single cent equals a satoshi. Bitcoin is divisible to 8 decimal places. A $1,00,000 BTC would mean 1 dollar would be equal to 100 satoshis or 1 uBTC.

[–]figure_d_it_out 7ポイント8ポイント  (2子コメント)

Actually, there are one million bits in one bitcoin, so one million dollars per would equal one dollar per bit. If you wanted satoshi/dollar parity a single bitcoin would have to be worth $100million.

[–]tophernator 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Can't we all just agree that tonal bitcoins is the way forward? /s

[–]indescription 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I want to see this chart

[–]classic_katapult 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

(btc.txn/s) / (paypal.txn/s) * paypal.marketcap = btc.marketcap ?

[–]Xproplayer 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

random question, how many bitcoins exist currently out of the 21m?

[–]burritofanatic 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

Just still a baby, got it!

[–]MeanOfPhidias 9ポイント10ポイント  (1子コメント)

The reason these graphics fail is because innovation creates wealth.

It portrays wealth as if it were a pie and to get a slice for yourself you have to take from other people. Innovation is like creating more pie so more people can get a slice.

[–]Groove_Criminal 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

So true. Few people realize how wealth can be created, or what wealth even is. Any time energy is put to work, and that work is valued, you've created wealth. This can even happen outside of human society. Plants can put the sun's energy to work and create fruit, and other animals value the fruit. The existence of this plant and the work that it does adds a kind of wealth that otherwise would not exist.

So when evaluating Bitcoin, the question comes down to what kind of value can this system of money add to society? Electronic cash that can be sent anywhere in the world almost instantly and with little friction, that no one controls yet everyone controls, and is backed by an immutable ledger, a record that is forever etched into human history and cannot be changed... sounds pretty valuable to society if you ask me.

[–]thieflar 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

This, of course, assumes that the value of a dollar remains constant.

...which is not a valid assumption.

Not to say this chart is "wrong", though; it can still be a useful reference.

[–]sagnessagiel 7ポイント8ポイント  (0子コメント)

We should note that it is in "today's dollars" and convert accordingly in the future. There really isn't an anchored measure of value in the world, unlike meters or liters.

[–]jrmxrf 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Saving bank accounts for example - is this just USA or worlwide? I guess that's kind of rhetorical question, good luck estimating those in Switzerland or China for example (and remember about power law distribution, estimations based on 'common citizen stores X on his savings account and we have Y citizens' won't work)

Also, paypal for example, is this money stored on paypal, money going through paypal in some timespan or company valuation?

Just trying to get as realistic as possible, I do like what you did.

[–]chrisguida 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Your "current" arrow is pointing to the wrong row :)

[–]fiat_sux4 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm surprised this isn't higher. OP got market cap right (4 billion), but that column is assuming we have 20 million BTC circulating, which we don't yet.

[–]peacewhale 5ポイント6ポイント  (7子コメント)

Great so in the best possible case scenario I'll have a couple million bucks. Better to spend the time we spend obsessing over price moves and invest that time into building a business.

[–]figure_d_it_out 8ポイント9ポイント  (5子コメント)

I work for a living. It'll take me 432 years to save a million bucks. I'll take best case scenario

[–]notreddingit 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Better to spend the time we spend obsessing over price moves and invest that time into building a business.

Definitely. Sustaining any sort of high price requires a very healthy Bitcoin economy.

[–]Throwahoymatie 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

Take off the payment processors and credit cards. Bitcoin is an asset, upon which new (and non-licensed) payment processors can be built.

So it's better to compare it to stuff like the market cap of various national currencies.

[–]notreddingit 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Personally I think gold is most analogous. Not saying that Bitcoin is going to be overtaking gold anytime soon(or ever perhaps), but as an asset I really think they can fill a similar niche.

5% of gold's market cap would be insanely amazing too. 10 years from now? Not impossible if things go well.

[–]notreddingit 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

This plus the fact that the monetary base inflation of Bitcoin is still pretty high and scales with the price, really illustrates just how unlikely we are to see some of the prices that so many people have predicted in this community. I.e five figure BTC and higher. There was an article that listed the 2014 predictions from a lot of people in the industry and it was a bit ridiculous looking back on what a lot of these people were predicting.

5-10++ years from now if Bitcoin is still the primary cryptocurrency or asset in its category then it's a bit different though. The inflation needs to go way down though first. Although then the incentive to mine will have to come from fees or some other arrangement if the network is to stay at similar levels of security. Running the numbers on fees though seems like it's probably the most shaky part of Bitcoin's economic formula. The inflation is killer for the price, but of course it's what results in the extremely secure network that is the cornerstone of Bitcoin.

[–]danda 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

There are significant technical (scaling) issues to solve between here and "major credit card" size. So that may take longer than we think. There are also significant privacy issues that I think must be resolved before the mainstream will want to hop on board... remember the public ledger is a) public and b) forever. When those two things have workable solutions deployed, we may see rapid growth.

[–]livinincalifornia 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The value and purchasing power is not totally dependent on the time it took to create that amount of wealth denominated in USD, which means the price could decouple from your linear expression.

[–]bitcoinknowledge 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

When you compare Bitcoin to other assets and realize all the network effects taking place then potential prices really are crazy to think about:

http://www.runtogold.com/images/potential-bitcoin-prices.jpg

[–]davidpbrown 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The market cap will fragment before it gets too high.

No-one likes a monopoly.. except perhaps those who want a decentralised solution like Bitcoin. hmm.

[–]jcyr 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Folks have been submitting some suggestions. One thing to consider if you take them and opt to make a new chart: add decimal spaces. Just easier for folks to read. :-)

[–]robbonz 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Good approximate values, however If the price is based on the total transferred by said companies, then the actual value is going to be somewhat different, because unlike the companies listed the value of Bitcoin is actually what is also being used in the transfer.

[–]xbcsmith -2ポイント-1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Where can I get some bits then?

[–]abolish_karma -3ポイント-2ポイント  (0子コメント)

You're saying the max this coin can go, is 1000x? Aww.. now I'm sad for all those early adopters.

[–]FR_STARMER -2ポイント-1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Correlation =/= Causation. This chart is meaningless.

[–]IkmoIkmo -4ポイント-3ポイント  (0子コメント)

You can compare bitcoin's volume to that of other payment networks like creditcards or paypal.

Or you can compare bitcoin's value as an asset to other assets, such as gold.

But you can't do both in the same charts.

Even worse, you're comparing the total value of all bitcoins to company valuations, which is an apples/oranges comparison.

Really poor chart, sorry mate. The info is interesting but you need to represent things more clearly.