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We apologize (self.modnews)

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[–]krispykrackers[A] 93ポイント94ポイント  (61子コメント)

This is important.

Those timelines were promised before we had a real plan of action or any internal dialogue. There's no good way to say this, but they are not reasonable and have given you guys some false hope. We want to do these things but we don't want to ship out crappy products either. Mainly, modmail is going to take a lot of time. It will not be ready by the end of the year.

We also need to discuss tool priorities with you guys. For example, if brigading isn't what you think should be a top priority, maybe we don't construct those tools first? I think once these questions are answered, we can start coming up with some realistic timelines.

*Edit, to be clear, I don't mean that we won't have new features until the end of the year. I think it's reasonable to be able to expect smaller features rapidly. I just wanted to stress that, for modmail specifically since it was addressed over the weekend, an end-of-the-year promise is unrealistic and not going to happen.

[–]FinalMantasyX 536ポイント537ポイント  (60子コメント)

Those timelines were promised before we had a real plan of action or any internal dialogue.

Well that was pretty fucking stupid, wasn't it?

[–]dangerdark 21ポイント22ポイント  (1子コメント)

"We were only pacifying you to get you to stop blacking the site out, none of it was real. But this time you can trust us!"

[–]DaveChild 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

By the way, we have this bridge for sale, if you're interested ...

[–]jonc211 185ポイント186ポイント  (30子コメント)

Sounds like every software project I've worked on.

[–]XavierSimmons 35ポイント36ポイント  (23子コメント)

I long for the days (a thousand years from now) when software project timelines are even remotely as accurate as construction timelines. And even those suck.

[–]academician 40ポイント41ポイント  (11子コメント)

The problem is that constructing software is not like constructing a building. Architecture is rigorously standardized and well-understood; for the most part, you're just building a new variation on something you've built a million times before. With software you often find yourself building something you've never built before, because if you'd built it already you'd just reuse what you had.

How long does it take to do something you've never done? How would you even estimate that? Software estimation involves a huge amount of guesswork of necessity.

[–]NNOTM 9ポイント10ポイント  (5子コメント)

That's not the sole reason, though. The planning fallacy is very common.

[–]academician 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

Sure, but that's a psychological phenomenon endemic to all task estimation, not something fundamental to software estimation. Even assuming actors with perfect rationality, software estimation would still be subject to the problem I described.

[–]danielsmw 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

And even then, you have to account for Hofstadter's law.

[–]autowikibot 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Hofstadter's law:

Hofstadter's law is a self-referential time-related adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter and named after him.

— Douglas Hofstadter, *Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid  *

Hofstadter's law was a part of Douglas Hofstadter's 1979 book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. The law is a statement regarding the difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of substantial complexity. It is often cited amongst programmers, especially in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as The Mythical Man-Month or extreme programming. The recursive nature of the law is a reflection of the widely experienced difficulty of estimating complex tasks despite all best efforts, including knowing that the task is complex.

Relevant: Douglas Hofstadter | Self-reference | Student syndrome

Parent commenter can toggle NSFW or delete. Will also delete on comment score of -1 or less. | FAQs | Mods | Call Me

[–]danielsmw 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Hey u/autowikibot, it looks like you grabbed a quote citation (— Douglas Hofstadter, *Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid *) from the Wikipedia page, but failed to grab the actual quote. Maybe a bug?

[–]llehsadam 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Architecture still has its problems which mostly stem from communication issues and how interchangeable data formats are. I am guessing constructing software might also suffer from those kinds of problems.

BIM is a nice solution that's getting popular nowadays in architecture. I don't know how helpful this can be.. but it's interesting to me at least.

[–]XavierSimmons -1ポイント0ポイント  (3子コメント)

Architecture is rigorously standardized and well-understood;

Exactly. Because we've been doing it for 10,000 years.

you're just building a new variation on something you've built a million times before.

We do that in the software industry, too.

because if you'd built it already you'd just reuse what you had.

Be real. If you had built it before, you'd re-use it -- after you do "just a little" refactoring (i.e., re-write it from the ground up.)

I think the biggest difference is that in software we still have brand new technologies every two months. And these technologies (as you suggested for construction) are not rigorously tested and held to standards. We just use them. But that's because we don't build five story buildings with children at the top so it's ok to build shit that breaks.

Software estimation involves a huge amount of guesswork of necessity.

It's ALL overly-optimistic guesswork. :)

[–]academician 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

Be real. If you had built it before, you'd re-use it -- after you do "just a little" refactoring (i.e., re-write it from the ground up.)

That's true, people do do that all the time, but it drives me nuts. NIH syndrome is a real problem, too. Still, even when we're rewriting we're usually doing it in a new way, so it's still not estimable.

[–]XavierSimmons 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I'm on your team there. Estimating is nearly impossible. Sadly, though, managers still have to manage, and to do so, they have to make project timelines.

[–]EnIdiot 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

As long as they understand that timelines should not be plans written in stone, I'm all with that. What gets me is that the need for "managers" in the traditional sense has effectively disappeared in a world of self-motivated, self-managing teams. I've been in a management position before, and I understand that the best managers just shield their teams from distraction and set the clear visions of what is needed, not how to do it or when it is "due" by (especially when trying new stuff out).

[–]jasenlee 9ポイント10ポイント  (6子コメント)

I long for the days (a thousand years from now) when software project timelines are even remotely as accurate as construction timelines. And even those suck.

I agree but I have seen this work differently with one group of developers over and over. What is this software delivered on time you ask and who makes it?

German software developers.

Seriously.

There is something about the culture of how they engineer things and work where they don't over-promise/under-deliver. Sometimes the UI could use some work but they will tell you up front how long it will take to do something (maybe because they seem to spend twice as much time on planning) and even if it's a date you don't like you can pretty much sit back rest assured that it will be delivered on that date.

[–]___---42---___ 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I'm curious how you came to believe this is the case? I can tell you from extensive first hand experience with German software engineering, I've seen the exact opposite many times. Constant delays and over commits (though certainly not worse than the domestic US counterparts for what I deal with).

Google Siemens software delays if you want obvious really public examples. They've delayed train projects for years because of software delivery timetable issues (I've included some sources below).

Source: http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/chennai/Software-Delay-Puts-Off-Metro-Rails-Commercial-Run/2014/10/18/article2482786.ece

http://www.railjournal.com/index.php/financial/siemens-profits-fall-as-velaro-delays-hit-results.html

[–]jasenlee 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I'm curious how you came to believe this is the case?

I have no article or research study I can point to. I can just offer you my 17 years of industry experience working with teams from China, UK, Russia, USA, India, Canada, Greece, and of course Germany.

German teams have always delivered on time for me.

[–]___---42---___ 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Groovy, sounds like you've been lucky, I've had 25 years of bad luck with German software teams, or on the whole most everyone ships late.

Edit: Or you're better at communicating requirements/putting the smack down.

[–]hardolaf 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Programmers in the US will tell the project manager how long it will actually take and then the project manager says it will be done in half the time at a quarter of the cost.

[–]FatZombieMama 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

As a Project Manager, I double the time and cost predicted. If the programmers were right, everyone looks good for coming in under. They're usually not right, but it's because clients move the goalposts. Then my timeline ends up being close.

[–]hardolaf [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

You're a good project manager. Can we have more of you?

[–]amaxen 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I don't think software project timelines were ever remotely as accurate as construction timelines.

[–]XavierSimmons -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

You may have misread my comment.

[–]SeventhMode 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Software timelines are like the windows "estimated time left" bar. Changing wildly and unpredictable up until there's only a few seconds left.

[–]XavierSimmons 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

A progress bar on a software project would start at 0, move to 90% done in the first three weeks, then take two years to finish the last 10%.

[–]evilnight 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Sounds like every software project I've ever worked on, seen, or heard a story about... even used.

[–]Moruitelda 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sounds like the software projects on the HBO TV shows that I watch.

[–]Arve 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

corrected_estimate = estimate*∏

[–]ReBurnInator 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yep. Promise makers are never aligned with promise keepers.

[–]hederaleaf 69ポイント70ポイント  (6子コメント)

This is the appropriate response. If the goal is to earn goodwill right now, the very last that that /u/krispykrackers, /u/kn0thing, /u/ekjp can do at this moment is make promises they can’t keep. What’s clear is that, even three days ago, someone on the administrative team at reddit was willing to make promises they had no intention of keeping, and it’s poison in the well. The whole enterprise of repairing admin-user (moderator, largely) relationships becomes sullied when one of the actors will lie to get their way.

…and it is a lie to promise something with no intention of delivering it. If the community reacts poorly at the end of Q3, you need to know that you single-handedly did it to yourselves in that one moment of careless deception.

I know this sounds really aggressive. What I’m saying is, it’s 2015, everyone on your software engineering teams knows about the Mythical Man Month, and you’re only hurting yourselves when you’re more worried about reclaiming the status quo than engaging with the people who make you valuable (internally, developers; externally, moderators/content creatora). It’s classic middle-management bullshit.

[–]kmarple1 16ポイント17ポイント  (4子コメント)

"Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." It's also possible that the person making the promises did so in good faith, but later found out they were unreasonable. Common scenario: management probably made promises before checking with the devs.

[–]sirbruce 1ポイント2ポイント  (3子コメント)

This doesn't really chance anything, though. If they made promises maliciously, they should be fired. If they made promises incompetently, they should be fired. Either way, they should be fired.

[–]kmarple1 1ポイント2ポイント  (2子コメント)

I don't disagree, but I've seen plenty of incompetent managers that never got fired.

[–]sirbruce -1ポイント0ポイント  (1子コメント)

That's generally because they don't admit to their incompetence.

We had Reddit openly admitting here that they screwed up. So what are the consequences?

[–]onegaminus 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Some people fall for the bullshit and the machine keeps rolling.

Amazes me how quickly people will be okay with the intruder in the house after he gives them a scratch and a belly rub.

[–]Zazie_Lavender 19ポイント20ポイント  (0子コメント)

As the page about AskReddit's timer says, if the admins communicate with them about delays, there should be no problem

[–]curiiouscat 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

People were freaking out about needing answers. They still are. It was dumb, but they were under a lot of pressure.

[–]SSfantastic 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's almost as if they could have learned from Nucleus's folly. Reddit: the new Hooli

[–]MustacheEmperor 9ポイント10ポイント  (1子コメント)

Yeah, backpedaling already. Truly appalling. Seriously, just name ONE feature we can expect by the end of this quarter. One specific feature, and who is working on it, and a promise that it will be released and functional.

[–]Z0di 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

That implies that it isn't a lie.

[–]FireandLife 11ポイント12ポイント  (5子コメント)

Well that was pretty fucking stupid, wasn't it?

It sort of was, but /u/kn0ting was in full disaster control at that point and wanted to get something across. He did promise those dates (ends of Q3 and Q4 specifically), but the actual details weren't set in stone. And he didn't have a chance to consult his entire staff and engineering team either. Stupid, but I don't think he had much alternative TBH.

Honestly any positive change at all is an improvement from the past. I'd also like to point out that /u/KrispyKrackers has proven herself to be an amazing admin and highly skilled community manager. One of her (I imagine most difficult) jobs is to act as a messenger between those who run Reddit (mainly the engineers and management) and the mods/users. If the engineers know something is impossible, blackouts and protests aren't going to change that. And most importantly, I'd rather find out now than at the set deadline.

[–]_pulsar 20ポイント21ポイント  (3子コメント)

What was stupid was the mods buying this crap and ending the blackout less than 24 hours after it started.

Edit: And now an /r/science mod is saying they know the admins hastily threw out a timeline for improvements and likely won't meet the given timeline, but as long as they're trying hard it's enough for him/her lol

[–]sirbruce 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Ding Ding Ding! We have a winner!

[–]EtherMan 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

the admins in /r/science also admits to taking bribes from the admins in direct violation of both their own and reddit's rules, and try to justify that with the classics of "but everyone does it", and "but I don't consider it to have any actual value", and who can forget the legendary "I had no choice, I had to"... Pathetic.

[–]blue_2501 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Sounds like Stockholm's Syndrome.

[–]DaveChild 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't think he had much alternative

Not making stuff up would have been a good alternative. Taking a couple of hours to make sure the dates promised were realistic would have been a good alternative. Not starting the effort to rebuild trust with what turns out to have been lies would have been a good alternative.

[–]XavierSimmons 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Is that any different than every management commitment ever made for software developers?

[–]romulusnr 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

They just made promises they couldn't keep to shut everyone the fuck up as the site bled money. Gotta corral the sheep, and one way to do that is to promise the moon. Hopefully they won't notice months later when you deliver them a small rock. Or perhaps you'll have already dealt with them all separately till then.

[–]SleepingSheeple 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

These are repeated failures of a very basic nature of any manager.

If I failed that badly, that many times, I would step down from my job. If I weren't fired first.

Pao should resign, and give back every penny she ever got from the site.

[–]WarrenPuff_It 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

This is just frustrating. I think this solidifies why this site is no longer the community we came here for, and it's been taken in a wrong direction.

[–]SeeShark 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

They weren't the ones who promised them, if I understand correctly.

[–]Cacafuego2 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't know if I blame them for trying to get people SOME estimate since everyone was clamoring for one. But not having something approaching a plan and timetable for it after all these years is pretty awful.

[–]JohnStamosBRAH -2ポイント-1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I think she means that it was promised by the mods of /r/askreddit

[–]FinalMantasyX 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

No, the askreddit timelines were based on /u/kn0thing as early as 3 days ago making promises.