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Bubble? (i.imgur.com)

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トップ新着論争中古い順Q&A

[–]bludstone 5ポイント6ポイント  (3子コメント)

October 2015

[–]mcsoapthgr8Voluntaryist 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

That might be a year too early - there are events to influence in the latter part of 2016.

[–]bludstone 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Nope.

https://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/ECM-1970-2084.jpg

And the convergence is becoming MORE likely as the date gets closer and more data comes in.

Look for a liquidity crash and the start of national currency crises, probably the manifestation of whats going on in greece right now.

It also comes hand in hand with a drop in confidence of governments.

[–]MaxBoivin 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

No, it's gonna be mid september, after the sh'mittah... </Jeff Berwick>

[–]LinearSimconDisillusioned? 9ポイント10ポイント  (3子コメント)

Ain't a bubble until it burst /Politicians.

[–]Jew_Fucker_69Voluntaryist 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

"recovery"

[–]PostNationalism/r/postnationalist[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

[credit for OC to /u/dudeabodes]

[–]tphantom1 -1ポイント0ポイント  (0子コメント)

How Can Our Bubbles Be Real If Politicians Aren't Real?

[–]KittyCatipalistLaissez-Faire 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

Look at all that stimulus!

[–]PhilipThePaintmaster 3ポイント4ポイント  (4子コメント)

What is the unit on the vertical axis?

[–]dudeabodes 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

S&P 500 index

[–]Giorria_DubhVoluntaryist 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

The super-rich hoarding all the babyfood and deoderant

[–]LinearSimconDisillusioned? 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

Aka the Bernie Sanders index.

[–]SpaceHeederbean apple 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think it's S&P 500 Index closings.

[–]SpaceHeederbean apple 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Even just extrapolating the "non-bubbly" slope from 1990-1995, you get something between 1400 and 1800 as where the index "ought" to be to reflect real growth of the economy. 2100 could be a bubble, but it's not even as outsized as the dot com bubble. That doesn't mean that a correction wouldn't be massive--just look at the housing bubble--but with both previous bubbles on the graph there was something majorly wrong with the fundamentals that was incentivizing people to throw more money into assets than they could plausibly be worth on any reasonable horizon.

Arguably, one explanation for the current trend could be a second tech bubble. If every web 2.0 IPO is being valued based on what it would be worth if every living human used its service and never migrated to any competitor ever, then you should expect those fevers to break almost any day now.

So, what am I supposed to conclude from this graph other than "some stocks are probably overvalued, but the economy is still growing?"

[–]LibertyAboveALL 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Driving interest rates so low has discouraged traditional, low-risk savings choices (CD, money market, etc.) and herded so many people into the stock market where they do not belong long term. This has again caused the S&P 500 PE ratio to be way above the historical average of ~16: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Combined that perversion with 401k plans, which I refer to as 'financial concentration camps ', have caused way too many poor 'long term' investments. No can say when it will get corrected, but it appears to be more sooner than later at this point.

[–]CodenamePinguAw Yuss we got the Bastiat 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Also, the housing bubble hit hard because most every citizen had a stake in it. Some rich people will go bankrupt if there is a second tech bubble, with some small repercussions but not much.

[–]road_layaAgorist egoist 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Everyone should afford more!

[–]wrothbardclassy propeller 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

What do we want?

Mo' money.

[–]Giorria_DubhVoluntaryist 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

I personally expect a good chunk of silicon valley and LA to take a dive at some point: It's a sure sign of a bloated industry when they seem to care more about socjus than their actual product.

[–]NJ1449Don't tread on these 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Looking back at all the startups that have courted me in the past 7 years or so and failed since, I'm so glad I stayed local and comfortable with a proven company rather than going for big money and a 1 1/2 hour commute. I would go into an interview, they'd offer me a $5 bottle of water, and the interview would be held in a conference room with a giant plasma TV and 3 game consoles hooked up to it. They'd ask me a couple of lateral-thinking puzzles, and then move on to trying to talk about video games or sports. Nothing about start-up culture ever felt sustainable to me.

[–]whatgold 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The Fed won't let it pop this time

[–]Chubberbun 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

How would one profit off of a bubble if you thought it was bursting soon?

[–]danielzopolaAnarcho-Capitalist 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

If you are really sure it's gonna pop any minute take out loans as big as you can and buy gold :-)

[–]NJ1449Don't tread on these 2ポイント3ポイント  (10子コメント)

If the dot com bubble was made of a bunch of websites that were oversold and underused, and the housing bubble was made from a bunch of god awful mortgages people couldn't afford, what is this one made from? I hear 'student loans' getting brought up a lot, are we really about to tank because a whole generation of brats had no business going to college but did anyway?

[–]dudeabodes 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm thinking quantitative easing has a lot to do with it.

[–]skw1dwardAnarcho-Capitalist 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Subprime auto loans? Sovereign debt? QE? Dollar collapse? ~0% interest rates? Subprime mortgages again?

[–]LibertyAboveALL 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

The things you named off are just highlights from the last couple of bubbles. The 'housing bubble' was really an overall 'credit' bubble and this appears to be similar event without a large concentration in any one area - student loans are bad, but not like real estate was in ~2005. Some are also referring to this one as a 'U.S. bond bubble' since interest rates are considered to be too low at this point.

[–]Giorria_DubhVoluntaryist 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

are we really about to tank because a whole generation of brats had no business going to college but did anyway?

You will if they can't afford to pay their loans and it turns out like borrowing $500,000 to study anthropology isn't a sound investment.

[–]TYsir 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

I did 2 years of college, decided it wasn't for me and didn't finish because I didn't want to take on the debt. now my classmates are graduating and I am working a professional job making more than any of them will be in two years.

less debt more money. I am the first in my family to not finish college in like 4-5 generations and I make as much as some of my siblings.

[–]NJ1449Don't tread on these 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

You did it right. When my time came and I saw all the people around me going out for degrees, still completely unable to decide on a path for themselves, switching majors and wasting credits, the degree appeared to hold a negative value to me. Taught myself instead, never looked back.

[–]TYsir 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I feel that if I had been at a university rather than a liberal arts college I may have found more options and completed my degree but two years in the work force has given me an invaluable advantage and experience.

[–]ktxy 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

You're the exception, not the rule. Unfortunately, college is actually a good deal, at least for good students. The returns from education are well known and documented, even including the debt.

[–]danielzopolaAnarcho-Capitalist 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well you might be just lucky. According to Bryan Caplan, education is one of the best investments. Collage graduates make on average 70% more than high school graduates.

[–]NJ1449Don't tread on these 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Your responses tell me "more of the same", and any sludge that was cleared out by market forces after the last collapse was re-introduced to continue to prop up interest rates. I suppose it's all just speculation until systems fail, and then forensic analysis will tell us specifically what failed this time.

[–]dream_tiger 2ポイント3ポイント  (8子コメント)

Student loan bubble.

[–]CodenamePinguAw Yuss we got the Bastiat 0ポイント1ポイント  (6子コメント)

How is that a bubble? Explain pls. I thought it was when a group of assets was increased in price over speculation. How do loans fit in there?

[–]funkypot 1ポイント2ポイント  (4子コメント)

College education is the "asset" that is overvalued

[–]CodenamePinguAw Yuss we got the Bastiat 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

So what happens when it bursts.

[–]funkypot 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Recession. Economic collapse

[–]SLeazyPolarBear 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

It is not as simple as the answers here. The federal government can take its money by force. This is different from the housing bubble, which really burst when people finally couldnt pay their loans. The government doesn't need to do all this foreclosure and liquidation that the housing market did. They will just garnish anything you make.

Not saying this isn't a bubble, just that it will look different when shtf

[–]patron_vectrasC4L / Catholic 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The federal government can take its money by force.

By doing what? These kids don't have the money.

[–]gizram84 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't understand the idea of this being a bubble though..

When the mortgage bubble burst, the obvious recourse was a spike in foreclosures. The bank had an asset to reclaim. This increased the number of houses for sale in the market, drove down prices, and put people on the street.

What does a student loan bubble look like? There is no asset to foreclose on or repossess.

How does it affect the rest of the market when the "bubble" bursts? This one always confuses me. I can't picture it at all.

[–]TYsir 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think it was Verlacker that was the first to engineer the soft landings we have experienced in the past without predicting what the stock bubble will hinge on how can this be possible?

[–]n9aave0 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

If you draw that chart and divide it by the ratio of money printed up (QE). You'd probably see a sharp down-trend, not an up trend.

[–]spatchcockNon initiation of force, Self Ownership, and Property Rights 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

For those who want verification of the source

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