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Non-PoliticalRapes are over-hyped in India (youtube.com)

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[–]platinumgus18Hailo 18 ポイント19 ポイント  (26子コメント)

Rapes are not overhyped, its sad that there are many false cases but the number of unreported cases especially those in marital wedlocks are unfortunately common and in rural areas it is worse. Its simply that all the campaign against rape isn't for the actual victims of it.

[–]tujhekya 16 ポイント17 ポイント  (17子コメント)

Well multiple reports puy that number at 90% so of you extrapolate we only would still have 10 rapes per 100k not putting us in top 50 countries of rapes. Furthermore india has a 25 to 30% conviction rape. compare that to others countries 10%. Marital rape os severely overstated as reason for other Countries having higher rape rates and it borders on conjecture.

I don't understand on what data does india have a rape problem

[–]tallest_tyrion 9 ポイント10 ポイント  (0子コメント)

You can't base your estimates on speculation that 90% go unreported. There are unreported rapes in US,UK and other developed countries too. Maybe it's more in India, maybe it isn't, but without data it's difficult to make assertions.

[–]ameya2693Put your faith in the light! and Shiva... 2 ポイント3 ポイント  (0子コメント)

On the data that Indians are brown and westerners are white. It's subtle racism.

[–]Academic_SuicideOne Goddam Mark 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (14子コメント)

we only would still have 10 rapes per 100k

Current reported rate is 5.69. If 90% cases are unreported, that implies a rate of ~56 per 100k.

[–]iVarun 3 ポイント4 ポイント  (12子コメント)

Have you factored in the unusually high rate of False Reporting in India on this?
Last i read for Delhi it was like 50%+ were False reporting.

This is not the case in other countries the last i heard.

[–]Academic_SuicideOne Goddam Mark 2 ポイント3 ポイント  (4子コメント)

Have you factored in the unusually high rate of False Reporting in India on this? Last i read for Delhi it was like 50%+ were False reporting.

Its hard to say this is a problem endemic to India. I haven't seen data for any others countries. Plus, Delhi is a outlier. After the Nirbhaya case, there was a huge jump in rape cases. In absolute numbers, Delhi now reports a higher number of rapes than most states. So 50%+ false reporting in Delhi doesn't imply 50%+ false reporting all over India.

If you agree that the probability of getting convicted in false rape case is much lower than getting convicted in a true one, and this probability holds approximately the same over all countries, then looking at just conviction rates should be enough. The guy I replied to said that India's conviction rate is much higher.

[–]iVarun 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (3子コメント)

Conviction rate is a factual stat. According to this article it was 23% 2 years back.

My argument was not really on this factor.

My argument relates to this Rape Ratio metric that gets touted for India and other countries. And the subsequent debate on that by constantly having to bring in the Factor about the so called Non-Reporting metric.

The thing even if one was to assume there is Non-Reporting (btw something for which serious data is lacking, its just assumed to be there), one can not slide under the carpet the fact that there is massive False Reporting.

The 50% figure is huge, I am not willing to believe that other countries have this at that high a rate, esp in the West where the so called Non-Reporting metric is assumed to be low because of whatever reason.

As this article states, the 50% figure is a consistent phenomenon which has sustained itself post Nirbhaya (if its to be assumed that is what led to more reporting).

So 50%+ false reporting in Delhi doesn't imply 50%+ false reporting all over India.

Of course, but the way statistics work is it provides models and trends.
IF the so called Non-Reporting model is used for pan India without any data to back that up, its folly to just exclude the False Reports pan-India, given that the reasons attributed to those are really not different in other parts of the country.

So it might not be 50% buts it within reason to assume its still high, esp compared to Western countries.

Bottomline. It goes like this in this Rape Ratio debate. I am repeating my comment verbatim from elsewhere on this comment chain.

India has a certain Rape ratio, then the argument goes, its low because not enough reporting happens. Sure point taken. Even though there is no serious data to categorically state this.

Then we do have serious data which establishes that due to the specific and different dynamics of the India (like the specific and different dynamics of Sweden,etc for them) there is a severely high False Reporting going on.

Which will inevitably and logically mess with what the ACTUAL HYPOTHETICAL Rape Ratio Number will be.

That was my point.

[–]Academic_SuicideOne Goddam Mark 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (2子コメント)

The thing even if one was to assume there is Non-Reporting (btw something for which serious data is lacking, its just assumed to be there)

If you look at the data, you can see that Non-reporting has to exist. I wrote why here. The debate is to what extent the under reporting occurs. Delhi has 3 times the number of cases than everywhere else in India, including other cities, with approximately the same conviction rate. Even a extremely conservative estimate would say that 50% cases go unreported.

The 50% figure is huge, I am not willing to believe that other countries have this at that high a rate, esp in the West where the so called Non-Reporting metric is assumed to be low because of whatever reason.

I don't see why the Non-reporting metric and false reporting metric are positively correlated. Also this is why I was saying that using conviction rate makes more sense to judge how many cases are false, in the absence of better data for other countries. If you agree that:-

  • The police in other countries are as competent as the Indian police, if not better,
  • False cases have a lower conviction rate than true cases and this rate is static across all countries, (follows from 1)

then a lower conviction rate would imply a higher percentage of false cases. We see that other countries have a lower conviction rate and thus have a higher percentage of false cases.

Of course, but the way statistics work is it provides models and trends.

You're providing a model on the basis of one data point which is most likely an outlier? Though to be fair, looking at other data and using conclusions above, the false reporting does seem to be nationwide.

[–]iVarun 0 ポイント1 ポイント  (1子コメント)

you can see that Non-reporting has to exist.

Which is part of the reason i said, its assumed, conjecture. After a period of time, rhetoric needs to lead to Hard factual numbers.

Esp. when this Underreporting gets touted like a Trump Card everytime the Rape Ratio is brought up. It can't be used as a trump card based on conjecture no matter how good it sounds, because after a while it needs to be backed up by studies and actual data.

then a lower conviction rate would imply a higher percentage of false cases. We see that other countries have a lower conviction rate and thus have a higher percentage of false cases.

This doesn't hold.

Because first its based on once again assumption that because other countries have lower conviction rates, those MUST BE False Reporting, this is a false dichotomy fallacy.

There can be multiple reasons for lower conviction rates.

The data for India is much more precise for what types of False Reporting happens. And most of them are quite peculiar/specific to India. Things like Promise to marriage, etc. The numbers are out there for this.

Bottmline once again.

We already have a Rape Ratio, people disagree with this on the Trump Card metric of Non-Reported incidents.

My point is, Sure, add those Non-Reported incidents into the Rape Ratio, meaning the ratio will rise.

BUT, but then one HAS to take into account the False Reporting.

The correlation or relevance rather of these 2 (Non-Reporting and False Reporting) stems from the Fact that for 1 we have actual data and for the other we are relying on assumptions/conjecture/feels. I am sorry after a while it becomes too tedious to believe this, even if its supposedly more intune with reality.

Data wins in the end because you can't have Ratio's based on educated conjecture.

[–]Academic_SuicideOne Goddam Mark [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

My fault. My wording implied that what I said were facts, not educated conjecture. I thought it would be implicit that I was not talking in absolute terms, but nvm.

BUT, but then one HAS to take into account the False Reporting.

No one is not denying that. You're welcome to take false reporting into account if you want. But my point was that even if you take false reporting into account, you probably won't see a drastic change in the overall picture.

There is nothing to suggest that false reports happen only in India or even that it is significantly higher than other countries. In the absence of hard data for other countries, accounting for false cases is futile, especially when there is no indication that there will be a drastic change.

The correlation ...

By correlation, I meant the relationship between two variables. I still don't see any positive correlation between x1(non reporting) and x2(false reporting). I said this in response to your argument where you claimed that since other countries have a low x1, they can't have a high x2. Since there is no positive correlation, that argument makes no sense.

Data wins in the end because you can't have Ratio's based on educated conjecture.

I agree. We have data in India for false reporting. I'm not disputing it. What we don't have is data for other countries in false reporting. Which means accounting for false reporting is pointless, since you can't compare India with anyone else.

As for non-reporting, we don't have data for anywhere. In the absence of hard data, educated conjecture on the basis on data triumphs. Just because it doesn't have a 99% chance of being correct doesn't mean that it is wrong. You can't just compare it with "feels".

[–]perseus0807 -1 ポイント0 ポイント  (6子コメント)

The 50%+ false reported cases were 300. That means only 600 cases were even registered. The people who are actually getting raped aren't going to the police.

[–]iVarun 2 ポイント3 ポイント  (4子コメント)

The 50%+ false reported cases were 300

According to this report, its not just 300.

The report says that between April 2013 and July 2014, of the 2,753 complaints of rape, only 1,287 cases were found to be true, and the remaining 1,464 cases were found to be false.

And statistical models works on normalization meaning, its not an aberration, its a trend which will be present in other data sets as well, potentially not as high as this but even that is conjecture at this point.

And also, the argument that People who get raped don't go to police to report but those don't get raped are fine with and found in aplenty enough to report those false claims, stands on really shaky bending-ass-over-backwards grounds.

[–]perseus0807 2 ポイント3 ポイント  (3子コメント)

The Hindu seems to disagree with your source. I'm not sure which to believe, but nonetheless -

And also, the argument that People who get raped don't go to police to report but those don't get raped are fine with and found in aplenty enough to report those false claims, stands on really shaky bending-ass-over-backwards grounds.

No, it's common sense. Have you ever been to a police station with a woman? The luxury of reporting rape and not feeling molested again, or treated like shit, (getting raped by the police again happens as well) is one that belongs to the upper-middle class.

[–]iVarun 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (2子コメント)

The Hindu seems to disagree with your source.

No it doesn't.

The Hindu is using data from 2013 only and breaking it down into sections even further.

The data analysis by Delhi Commission of Women is from April 2013 to July 2014.

No, it's common sense

Oh so now we shifting posts once again.

Show me the data which states categorically that those false reports belonged to upper-middle class section.

You are sprouting BS after BS.

We are talking data not the feels.

Read the comment chain once again.

India has a certain Rape ratio, then the argument goes, its low because not enough reporting happens.
Sure point taken. Even though there is no serious data to categorically state this.

Then we do have serious data which establishes that due to the specific and different dynamics of the India (like the specific and different dynamics of Sweden for them) there is a severely high False Reporting going on.

Which will inevitably and logically mess with what the ACTUAL HYPOTHETICAL Rape Ratio Number will be.

That was the point.

[–]perseus0807 3 ポイント4 ポイント  (1子コメント)

The point is that you cannot have statistics for rape because there are a quintillion factors that affect this. Otherwise, statistically, Sweden has the highest rape rate in the world. You have to be exceptionally daft, or biased, to believe that. At some point, you have to disregard nebulous stats for experience. Feels, if that's what you want to call them. And I say this as somebody studying statistics, so I'm not some anti-fact retard.

[–]iVarun 1 ポイント2 ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes, but this has to enter the debate whenever this Rape Ratio concept is brought in.

Sweden's ratio must drop because of how they do the reporting, as should India's, after/post including the data from that Non-Reporting metric.
And neither is insignificant, esp given that for one (false reporting we have real data, its irrelevant whether we like it to not)

[–]iVarun 2 ポイント3 ポイント  (0子コメント)

Whats the data on that?

Because simply stating its just cultural man, is not how stats work.

[–]biblepimpIf it makes me uncomfortable, it is wrong! I can call the cops -3 ポイント-2 ポイント  (0子コメント)

That is still much lower than the incidence of Tb in India.

[–]asoka120i love sunny leone 16 ポイント17 ポイント  (5子コメント)

Rapes are overhyped. Naxalites killing loads of people get 3 lines in our national newspaper.

Edit: Just Open your newspaper then look at the crimes at Page 3. A women getting murdered for her valuables gets like a paragraph. While the one who was raped or let's say sexually molested in faraway West Bengal gets something 3/4 th of a page. What does it say of us? . For Indians rape is a crime worse than murder, you can discuss what this means.

[–]eldaisfishMaratha Pao 15 ポイント16 ポイント  (1子コメント)

because this news sells.

No one gives a shit about naxals.

[–]mad__maxEarly in the morning and stop drinking 11 ポイント12 ポイント  (0子コメント)

... or the CRPF, sadly.

[–]omibabaIndian rappist 0 ポイント1 ポイント  (1子コメント)

For Indians rape is a crime worse than murder, you can discuss what this means.

And for feminists in particular, rape is a crime worse than an event which wipes out the entire human race.

[–]wiigamer136Death To Corruption in India![S] -3 ポイント-2 ポイント  (0子コメント)

Feminazis assume that all men are out there to rape.

[–]buckchod -4 ポイント-3 ポイント  (0子コメント)

Anything about a fuck sells in India.

[–]omibabaIndian rappist 0 ポイント1 ポイント  (1子コメント)

there are many false cases but the number of unreported cases

You are forgetting an important category here: the number of unreported false rape cases - situations where a false rape case is not registered because the alleged 'rapist' agrees to the extortion demands of the alleged 'victim' to avoid ruining his life.

[–]kejriwal_stalin 6 ポイント7 ポイント  (0子コメント)

the number of unreported false rape cases

Any other day I would have rubbished this claim, but after watching the Rohtak sister's case I believe you .