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Robert X. Cringely Contributor

I am a Silicon Valley iconoclast who writes about technology. full bio →

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

I came to Silicon Valley in 1977 and helped start companies now worth a total of more than $1 trillion. My job today is to explain technology to businesspeople and business to technologists. Somebody has to do it. I have been a columnist at Inc, InfoWorld, and Worth, written many OpEds for the New York Times, two best-selling books and several TV documentaries for PBS that have aired in more than 60 countries. My blog has run continuously since before blogs were blogs (1997) with more than one million words available online.

The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

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Next Week's Bloodbath At IBM Won't Fix The Real Problem

I’ve been hearing since before Christmas about Project Chrome, the code name for what has been touted to me as the biggest reorganization in IBM history. Well, Project Chrome is finally upon us, triggered I suppose by this week’s announcement of an 11th consecutive quarter of declining revenue for IBM. Project Chrome is bad news, not good. Customers and employees alike should expect the worst.

To fix its business problems and speed up its “transformation,” next week about 26 percent of IBM’s employees will be getting phone calls from their managers. A few hours later a package will appear on their doorsteps with all the paperwork. Project Chrome will hit many of the worldwide services operations. The USA will be hit hard, but so will other locations. IBM’s contractors can expect regular furloughs in 2015. One in four IBMers reading this column will probably start looking for a new job next week. Those employees will all be gone by the end of February.

In the USA mainframe and storage talent will see deep cuts. This is a bit short-sighted and typical for IBM. They just announced the new Z13 mainframe and hope it will stimulate sales. Yet they will be cutting the very teams needed to help move customers from their old systems to the new Z13.

The storage cuts are likely to be short-sighted, too. Most cloud services use different storage technology than customers use in their data centers. This makes data replication and synchronization difficult. IBM’s cloud business needs to find a way to efficiently work well with storage systems found in customer data centers. Whacking the storage teams won’t help with this problem.

Project Chrome appears to be a pure accounting resource action — driven by the executive suite and designed to make IBM’s financials look better for the next few quarters. Global Technology Services, the outsourcing part of IBM, is continuing to lose customers. That rate of loss — one Lufthansa-size customer every six weeks — seems to be holding. The size of Project Chrome cuts suggest IBM is trying to get three or four quarters ahead of the expected business losses. At this point IBM’s business losses have become a self-fulfilling process with deep cuts followed by increasingly bad service, increasingly madder customers, and more lost business.

The biggest reorganization in IBM’s history will not really begin until the Project Chrome resource actions are done. People let go will be excluded from consideration for the new business units. In a few months those new business units will start to work calling on IBM customers to sell them on the new CAMSS (Cloud, Analytics, Mobile, Social and Security) stuff. They will walk into a hornet’s nest.

Some reorganizations are well thought-out and absolutely essential but Project Chrome won’t be one of those. It will traumatize the corporation and put most accounts into immediate crisis. While survivors dig out from the devastation IBM will change their managers and their job descriptions. With fewer people and changing roles, things IBM has contractual obligations to do for its customers will start to be overlooked. If you are an IBM customer you should probably should start working on plans to keep your projects moving forward and your systems running.

If you are an investor or Wall Street analyst it’s time to take a closer look at IBM’s messaging. Stop believing everything you hear from IBM. Big Blue is a master at controlling the discussion. They state or announce something, treating it as fact whether it exists or not. They build a story around it. IBM uses this approach to control competitors, to manage customer expectations, and to conduct business on IBM’s terms.

So while IBM is supposedly transforming, they are also losing business and customers every quarter. What are they actually doing to fix this? Nothing. In saying the company is in a transition and is going to go through the biggest reorganization in its history, will this really fix a very obvious customer relationship problem? No, it won’t.

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  • rshimizu20 rshimizu20 3 days ago

    This is just one more reason why Ginni needs to replaced now…!!

  • This guy must be the fly on the wall at IBM. He’s nailed everything right on the head, and not afraid to report it like most other reporters that write things to stay in the nice graces of IBM.

  • AmyS AmyS 2 days ago

    Bonnie – you don’t show up in our IBM corporate directory, so I have to assume you are not currently an employee (maybe former?) Just wondering how you know this is accurate since it does not reflect anything I have seen coming from the software side of IBM.

  • Graham Hardy Graham Hardy 2 days ago

    Perhaps Mike with all IT companies being in same boat perhaps consolidation is better than risking it with another risk company, out of the frying pan and all of that

  • LMwic LMwic 2 days ago

    Funny “AmyS”, but you don’t show up in bluepages either… Is it conceivable that we are all hiding our identity?
    Perhaps things are a little more rosey on the software side, but Cringely (although clearly anti-IBM) usually has a pretty accurate and always thought provoking take on IBM’s actions.

  • Keep watching, Amy …keep watching

  • Of course, we are all hiding our identities! You’d have to be insane not to!

    And, no, things are far from rosy on the software side … this article is spot on. Buckle up, it is going to be one hell of a ride!

  • WOW…I’d love to know where you get your information from as I feel it is totally inaccurate. You must have a personal vendetta against IBM to write an article like this. IBM’s reported earnings for 2014 was $92B. Hardly the sinking ship you portray. My opinion is IBM is on the right path of making sure their solutions meet the business outcomes their clients need. My experience has been that IBM has always put the client first, and am confident they continue to transform to be sure that continues.

  • Right. And Enron is about to knock it out of the park too. Just one more quarter, honest.

  • anon anon 2 days ago

    Jeff – how is it that you or the author seem to know so much about what’s coming?? Are you an IBM employee? If so, then you would know this article is as far from the truth as one could imagine!

  • edpereira edpereira 2 days ago

    Laura must be in charge of the firings…

  • JFJF JFJF 3 days ago

    I work for IBM and I care deeply about our customers. I want them to use our products and succeed. And many of us at IBM think the same way. We are passionate and we care about our clients. I am surrounded by talented and enthusiastic individuals.

    IBM has a very healthy working environment, excellent work-life balance.

    IBM had grew a lot in the number of brands over the years through acquiring of exceptional companies and excellent products. We had a re-org and this re-org is a simple consolidation of brands to make us more effective, efficient and more streamline. Think of it as tidying up the house.

    And I don’t know where you got the other information as I have heard nothing about it. No one here is concerned of getting chopped. You made it sound like IBM is chopping all the good people and leaving all the useless one on the boat. That is not the case at all. If someone get chopped, it’s probably because they are not good enough to stay.

  • If you’re still at IBM, you might be good enough to stay but not smart enough to leave.

  • Don’t know what division you work in, JFJF, but this article hits it on the nose. Further, unless you are in middle/upper management or the exec ranks, you probably have no clue that this is coming. Clearly, the author’s sources are execs …I wish it were not true, but, alas, it is. And, it is going to hit like an avalanche starting next week …:-(

  • Excellent work-life balance went by the wayside long ago in the division I worked for. Glad you are in a different boat.

    Instead I got caught up in the line of enthusiastic people leaving to go on to other opportunities. It felt like all the best people were leaving so it seemed like a great line to get in.

  • John D John D 3 days ago

    “Big Blue is a master at controlling the discussion. They state or announce something, treating it as fact whether it exists or not. They build a story around it. IBM uses this approach to control competitors, to manage customer expectations, and to conduct business on IBM’s terms.”

    And both pro-IBM comments on this article are first-time commenters who just signed up this month. Coincidence?

  • All of Mr. Cringely’s most popular posts are IBM slam pieces. The company is transitioning to higher value business and making sacrifices along the way. They are not hitting Wall Street’s marks but it is certainly not the titanic failure he is painting in these articles.

  • LMwic LMwic 2 days ago

    Is it possible that all of his IBM “Slam” pieces are so popular because they spread like wildfire internally through that very company? How disconcerting that the employees of the slammed company are the ones that make the piece so popular.
    I guess after cutting a 1/4 of the workforce Cringely will have to find some new fans and a new target.

  • Sort of true, especially when realizing the effect of the currency differentials between the dollar and other currencies. When adjusting for currency, IBM is down 2% year over year. And some of the best years, like 2011, there were tax-cuts for equipment purchases that expired and were not renewed… so customers pulled back. The biggest problem I see is IBM didn’t hire US folks in the 2000′s. That’s coming back to bite them. 5-10 years out of college, many employees are hitting their stride with innovation and new products. IBM has a demographic split with many older employees – I was one of them and left after 30 years in 2013.

  • Titanic it IS! And, right now, we are throwing off extra weight in an attempt to keep afloat a little longer – hoping that we might actually be able to plug the leak and turn the ship back to safety. Keep your eyes open and watch for the actuals that will most certainly support this author’s article. I am a loyal IBMer and am working my butt off to support the company’s transformation and success, but what I am seeing now does not bode well for its ultimate success.

  • This is very interesting. I would call your attention to a new book out about Marissa, CEO of Yahoo. She was advised by a major stockholder to fire 5,000 people and she refused to do so. She then incorporated a “bucket method” to be used quarterly to decide where the slackers were. Anything is better than a massive layoff. Both these methods avoid the real issue!!! Ordinary people are fired for the mistakes of leadership at the top. CEOs get big bucks even when they fail. Ordinary folks get shafted even when they succeed. Love & Peace, Deborah

  • What higher value business is that? Cloud – already a commodity. Watson – neat, but at Google Watson would be someones 20% project, not something to bet the company on.