・・・・ It is hard to avoid the conclusion that South Sudan’s ruling elites were more interested in power than in doing the hard work of nation building.
・・・・Unlike many other nations, South Sudan’s army is not an institution that builds a national ethos and common identity but is instead a civil war in waiting. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 現地政府の指導者や有力者に国家建設や国内統治のマジな意志があるかどうか疑問で 部族対立や軍閥割拠、石油収入のバラマキや分捕りに興味が集中。政府軍にも国の統 一と安定化を目指すところがないという。内戦の起きやすい絶好の条件が揃っている ようなもので、それを防ぐのが国連のPKOだけというのでは・・
The soldiers whose service is honoured at the Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo ? peasant boys and shopkeepers' sons as well as Samurai generals ? died trying to make that idea a reality. Just as the young communist fighters remembered at the Museum of the War of Chinese People's Resistance Against Japanese Aggression in Beijing died defending their country's interests. No easy symmetry is intended here. The Japanese were indeed the aggressors and the atrocities for which they were responsible are well known.
Yet Chinese self-defence did not stop when the country's core territory was secure, but went on, over the years since the second world war, to seek to resume control over every scrap of land to which the Chinese empire had ever laid claim. Absolutist notions of what national power should mean have, in other words, not gone away. Attenuated they may be, but they are still not without risk.
Thus China's expressions of outrage over the visit to the Yasukuni shrine by Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe have some justification, given the historical record, but they also show China at its most unrelenting. The Chinese speak of provocation, but do not mention that represented by their own military concentration around the islands over which the two countries have been quarrelling.
There is on both sides, but particularly on the Chinese side, a reluctance to grasp that the insecurities of their countries spring out of the same historical context, and that the solution is to abandon absolutist ideas about who should control eastern Asia and its waters, ideas which by their nature are irreconcilable. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ＊ガーディアンはとても明瞭にリベラル色の鮮やかな新聞であるので、安部首相の 靖国参拝に強烈に批判的かと思って読んで見ると、期待したほどではなく中国への 日本の侵略の歴史から反発は理解できるところもあるにせよ、最近の中国の軍事的 拡張主義のほうが問題ではないかという。英国リベラル紙がこういう態度であるこ との背後に中国の東シナ海・南シナ海での拡張主義やADIZに見られるPLAの動向に 対する警戒感が有るのだと思う。そういう意味でリベラル紙であっても中国の軍事 的拡大主義には（場合によっては保守派以上に）批判的で、国内の似非リベラルと は全く異なる。
ttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/140102/chinese-tycoon-chen-buy-new-york-times Benjamin CarlsonJanuary 3, 2014 10:40 This eccentric Chinese tycoon is trying to buy The New York Times Clownish recycling magnate Chen Guangbiao promises better China coverage. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ＊NYTを買いたいと言い出して物議を醸しているChen Guangbiao というしとは、何か とお騒がせの好きなしとのようで、中国の空気汚染騒ぎの時に「新鮮な空気の缶詰」 を売るとかいうパオーマンスをやったりしていて、売名が好きなように見えるしと。 NYTの買収費用は24～30億ドルとみなされていて、支配権の有るA株をファミリーが抑 えていることからも買収が現実的なのかは疑わしいと思える・・
・近隣住人の目撃者が一人だけおり、遺棄の現場には黄色のタクシーの後ろに黒い車が 停車していたが、発砲の音がした後に２人をタクシーから引きずり出し、走り去った。 “Solo hubo una persona que vio lo sucedido y asegura que un taxi amarillo se estacionó en el sitio y atrás llegó un auto negro de donde empezaron a bajar a unas personas desde el interior del taxi”, ha declarado un vecino, citado por el diario Extra. ・女性は西語を話さないが容態は安定、７２時間は経過を見ないとと医師がコメント ・近隣ではタクシー強盗（タクシーから強盗される方）が頻発、３０日には業務中の 女性警察官がタクシーを利用中に連れ去られて裸にされた上、写真をばら撒くぞと脅された （こちらは３日後に４人が逮捕された）
Tres horas antes, al salir del Hilton, se movilizaron en un servicio de transporte ejecutivo, el cual les cobró 3 dólares, pero hubo un percance entre el conductor e Hitomi Tet Suo porque no quería pagar el valor de la carrera, tal como se precisa en el documento judicial. http://extra.ec/ediciones/2014/01/03/cronica/hasta-100-lucas-por-homicidas-de-japones/
It is striking that at the very moment when the Obama administration is pleading with Congress to be very careful in its behavior, the Iranian regime has no fears and no hesitation to engage in this subversion. They must have calculated that the Obama administration is so committed to these nuclear talks, and so committed to the “Rouhani narrative” ?that Rouhani is a moderate and we must help him succeed? that nothing they do will affect administration policy. Sadly, and dangerously, they appear to be right. Not these arms shipments to Bahrain, nor shipments early last year to Yemen, nor the famous plot to blow up the Saudi ambassador in a restaurant in Washington, D.C. have had the slightest impact on administration policy.
This helps explain why the Arabs are so nervous: they see the United States hell-bent on a nuclear deal and willing to ignore everything else the Iranian regime is doing. It’s an analogue to Obama policy in Syria, where we have embraced a deal on chemical weapons that leaves Assad free to murder as many people as he likes as long as he does not use that one method.
・・・・・ One can only imagine the satisfied laughter such a position causes in Tehran. And the fear it engenders in capitals like Manama, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi. こうしたオバマ政権の政策はイラン政権をして満足の笑みを浮かばせ、マナマ、リヤ ド、アブダビの政権をして恐怖を起こさしめる。
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama wrapped up 2013 with an average 41% approval rating in December, unchanged from November. However, his monthly job approval declined steadily through most of 2013, including a three- percentage-point drop in March.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant made the claim on Saturday in a statement posted onto a website page used by Sunni militants. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ＊シリア、イラク、レバノンその他でのスンニ派とシーア派の武力紛争が激化する 一方で、何処へ行き着くのか見極めがつかない。アラブの春（）以降の、この問題 は西欧、特にアメリカの政策失敗ではないかと思ふ
Earlier Saturday, officials in Ethiopia said talks were delayed because there was no agreement on an agenda. So far, the two sides have spent most of their time holding separate meetings with mediators from the East African regional bloc IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development). 直接会談は予定より遅れている。政府側、反政府側は直接ではなく、第三者のIGAD と各々会議していて間接的に交渉している
戦闘は続いているがBorからJubaへの攻撃はひとまず見合わせる模様 Fighting continues in South Sudan as negotiators prepare for direct talks. Government troops have been advancing on Bor, the rebel-held capital of Jonglei state. Earlier, forces loyal to Machar said they were preparing to advance from Bor to the national capital, Juba. But in a Friday interview with "The Telegraph," Machar said his forces would hold back on attacking the capital in hopes of achieving a "negotiated settlement." ttp://www.voanews.com/content/south-sudans-peace-talks-delayed/1823372.html
ttp://www.piie.com/blogs/china/?p=3676 China Economic Watch A Bad Year for Chinese Stocks by Nicholas Borst | January 3rd, 2014 | 08:53 am 中国経済ウオッチ（ピーターソン国際経済研究所） 中国株式市場の2013年のレビュー：株式市場にとって悪い年であったが by Nicholas Borst
グラフ：上海総合指数の推移 ttp://imgur.com/ReEtNvX The current P/E ratio of 11 seems far too low for a rapidly growing economy. Adding in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange brings the average up slightly to 14. For comparison the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 20. 上海総合指数のPERは11で、敬愛成長の高い国の株式市場としてはあまりにも低い。 深セン株式市場の指数は14である。ちなみにS&P500のPERは現在20である。
グラフ：株式の「トータル・ソーシャルファイナンス」に占める比率の推移 ttp://i.imgur.com/kGhCwMc.png The macroeconomic consequences of dysfunctional equity markets are significant. Because most companies lack the option of seeking financing through equity, they instead turn to debt markets. This has been one of the factors leading to the rapid increase in China’s debt-to-GDP ratio. The equity share of total social financing was a measly 1.2 percent as of Q3 2013. At the height of the stock market in 2007, the share of equity financing was six times greater, but still low compared to less bank- dominated financial systems. 株式市場の機能不全がマクロ経済に与える影響は大きい。多くの企業が株式によ る資金調達という手法を使えず、銀行からの負債に依存する。此れは中国の対GDP での負債比率の急速な上昇の原因の一つである。トータル・ソーシャルファイナ ンシングに占める株式の比率は2013年のQ3で僅かに1.2％である。2007年にはこの 数値は6倍であったが、それでも銀行からの負債に比べて小さな値であった。
China’s dysfunctional equity market reveals that the country is not immune from the boom-and-bust cycles that affect financial markets around the world. In some respects, the boom-and-bust cycle in China has been worse. More than five years after the bubble popped, the stock market is still far away from returning to its previous high. This contrasts poorly with the crash and subsequent recovery of the S&P 500 in the United States. 中国の株式市場の機能不全は中国経済が世界の他の国と同じようにブーム＆バスト のサイクルから免れ得ない事を示す。ある意味で中国のブーム＆バストのサイクル は他の国よりも悪い。バブルの終焉から5年以上を経て、株式市場は依然として以前 の高みから遠い。これはS&P500がクラッシュして、その後に速やかに回復している のに比べて対比的である。
The growth of credit in China remains excessive. Well-functioning equity markets are one of the tools that will help reduce the overreliance on issuing debt. This brings in to focus how important fixing China’s stock market is to putting the Chinese financial system on a more sustainable path. Let’s hope for a better new year for Chinese markets. 中国経済のクレディットの成長率は未だに過大である。よく機能する株式市場は 銀行負債への過剰な依存を改める手法であるが、中国の株式市場の修復は重要で 中国の金融システムのより良い維持可能性にとってそうである。2014年が良い方 向に向かう事を期待したい。
Obama first enunciated those foundations in his June 4, 2009, speech to the Muslim world at Cairo University. Ever since, they have been the rationale behind US counterterror strategy and US Middle East policy. Obama’s first assertion is that radical Islam is not inherently hostile to the US. As a consequence, America can appease radical Islamists. Moreover, once radical Muslims are appeased, they will become US allies, (replacing the allies the US abandons to appease the radical Muslims). Obama’s second strategic guidepost is his claim that the only Islamic group that is a bona fide terrorist organization is the faction of al-Qaida directly subordinate to Osama bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Only this group cannot be appeased and must be destroyed through force. ・・・・ ・・・・ Kirkpatrick’s claim that al-Qaida played no role in the attack was refuted by the Times’ own reporting six weeks after the attack. It has also been refuted by congressional and State Department investigations, by the UN and by a raft of other reporting. His claim that the YouTube video did spur some of the attackers to action was categorically rejected last spring in sworn congressional testimony by then-deputy chief of the US mission to Libya Gregory Hicks.
・・・・ ・・・・ Again, it is not at all apparent that the Times realized what it was doing. But from Israel to Egypt, to Iran to Libya to Lebanon, it is absolutely clear that Obama and his colleagues continue to implement the same dangerous, destructive agenda that defeated the US in Benghazi and will continue to cause US defeat after US defeat.
Amid this vacuum, fanatical Islamists have flourished in both Iraq and Syria under the banner of Al Qaeda, as the two countries’ conflicts amplify each other and foster ever-deeper radicalism. Behind much of it is the bitter rivalry of two great oil powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, whose rulers ? claiming to represent Shiite and Sunni Islam, respectively ? cynically deploy a sectarian agenda that makes almost any sort of accommodation a heresy.
“I think we are witnessing a turning point, and it could be one of the worst in all our history,” said Elias Khoury, a Lebanese novelist and critic who lived through his own country’s 15-year civil war. “The West is not there, and we are in the hands of two regional powers, the Saudis and Iranians, each of which is fanatical in its own way. I don’t see how they can reach any entente, any rational solution.”
The post?Arab Spring al-Qaeda, what I dubbed al-Qaeda 3.0 last year, has had its setbacks. A year ago this month, the French intervention in Mali broke up the largest al-Qaeda sanctuary ever. The fighters fled to new sanctuaries in Libya and Niger, and now multiple al-Qaeda franchises and sympathetic movements are thriving in the lawless Libyan desert. Al-Qaeda’s franchise in Yemen is still dangerous, regularly targeting the military and police across the country. The organization also maintains sleeper cells in Saudi Arabia and recruits Saudi dissidents to learn to fight jihad in Syria.
Al-Qaeda 3.0 is more dispersed and decentralized than its predecessors. Its leaders, such as Golani and ISIS leader Muhammad al-Baghdadi, are more secretive and elusive figures than bin Laden, Zawahri and Abu Musab Zarqawi, the Jordanian who founded al-Qaeda in Iraq. They have kept their identities secret better than Awlaki or Kashmiri did, obviously to avoid death. Only on Dec. 25 of last year did the world see a photograph of Golani, or at least a man Iraqi intelligence says is Golani.
As Kirk Sowell, based in Amman, who heads a political risk firm put it: “The opposition is now pretty much united against Geneva II. The Syrian Opposition Coalition had indicated some willingness to participate conditionally, but it looks like they have realized that is a losing game.
No one representing any real fighting force will be there. The core Islamist force, the newly formed Islamic Front, certainly will not participate. They’d probably only be open to a conference framed around how a transfer of power is carried out, and not one involving Assad in any way.”Unless the west is able to convince at least the western- backed opposition to unite and attend, the project of the talks even beginning is now in question.
The dip among Democrats explains why Obama has of late focused on economic inequality (unemployment insurance, a minimum-wage increase, etc.) in his speeches and policy proposals. Those moves are aimed at rallying the party’s base and, with it, Obama’s approval numbers. But his standing among independents and Republicans speaks to the broader difficulties for the president in rebounding to Clinton or Reagan territory in his second term. 民主党支持者の中でさえ支持率の低下していることがオバマ大統領をして最近の 格差問題へのフォーカスの原因である。それは民主党支持層のオバマ支持を復活 させる狙いが有るのだが、無党派層や共和党支持層の不支持が大統領の支持率の 大幅回復を難しくさせる
Add it all up, and you can conclude two things: 1) Obama’s best (only?) strategy to move the needle on his approval numbers in the near term is to rally Democrats, and 2) even if that happens, he will still find himself well short of the lofty ratings enjoyed by Reagan and Clinton in their second terms. 結局のところ大統領の支持率復活というのは（１）最も効果的でありそうなのは 民主党支持層の支持を回復すること（２）それが出来たとしてもレーガンやクリ ントンの大統領第二期の支持率には及びそうにない
The idea had some high-powered fans. Zbigniew Brzezinski loved it. In January 2009, marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing, he called pursuit of the G-2, "a mission worthy of the two countries with the most extraordinary potential for shaping our collective future." Newly-minted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton got caught up in the "happy" fever, declaring, "The opportunities for us [the U.S. and China] to work together are unmatched anywhere in the world." このG2論というのはブレジンスキーのお気に入りのアイデアで、2009年の米中 国交回復30周年に彼は米中の二国の「我々の未来を形作る最も偉大な可能性を 有する使命」であるとした。ヒラリー国務長官はこのアイデアに傾いて「世界 に類を見ない二国間の協力関係の機会」と述べた。 ・・・・ The idea quickly died a natural death. And no wonder: there was a huge divide between the notion that the U.S. and China could agree on how to solve the world's problems (and the related idea that they could then convince the rest of the world to go along) and reality. And reality wouldn't budge. しかし米中二国が協力して世界の諸問題を解決するというアイデアは二国間の 巨大な乖離と、その（非）現実性から、直ぐに死に絶えた。（後略）
1. President Vladimir Putin and Russia 2. Iran 3. Bashar Assad and his Damascus Regime 4. Japan 5. Al Qaeda and Violent Sunni Jihad 6. Climate Skeptics 7. Saudi Arabia 8. Germany 9. The Egyptian Military 10. The UK
1. The Muslim Brotherhood and Democratic Islamism 2. The EU 3. The Obama Administration 4. Israel 5. Democracy 6. Turkey 7. Brazil 8. Club Med (Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece) 9. The Syrians 10. Argentina
・・・ All this made it possible for the US to execute a pivot to Asia; while cutting the defense budget overall, it could put a few more assets into the Indo-Pacific, reassuring allies about US staying power, restoring tranquillity to the region without taking on any risk or new responsibilities.
・・・What a difference a year makes. The US has been forced to pivot back to the Middle East, and not because things were going well. Al Qaeda is back, having successfully morphed from a group in the AfPak hills into a global（ry
While Chinese nationalists want the big story in Asia to be the end of China’s “Century of Humiliation” and the Return of the Middle Kingdom, Japanese nationalists think they out-teched China in the 19th and early 20th centuries, and they can out-tech it again. Nobody knows how this will work out, but in 2013 Japan made China and the world sit up and take notice of its ambitions.
>>351 ベスト10、ワースト1－0のリストから判るようにラッセルミードはオバマ政権の外交 政策、特に中東政策に対して禿しく否定的で、痛快な書き方で・・・ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ・・・and this very risk-averse administration is now engaged in two desperate, against the odds negotiating efforts. Somehow, the Obama administration has managed to put itself into a position where unless it achieves the near-impossible (peace treaty between Israel and Palestine, resolution of the US-Iranian standoff) in a few months, it will be judged a definitive failure. One never wants to be in this kind of a position if only because the more desperate you are to reach an agreement, the higher the price of the agreement becomes.
There’s a pattern here. The administration is determined to avoid risky actions around the world but doesn’t want to be criticized by either liberal humanitarians or conservative nationalists as spineless. It makes tough-sounding statements as a substitute for action and, if the tough words don’t work, it backs down. It’s not clear yet that the White House understands how dangerous this approach is, or just how much it does to undermine the administration’s negotiating position abroad. オバマ政権はリスキーな行動を回避しようとするのだが意気地なしと批判される事を恐れて タフな言辞を使用して行動の代わりにしようとする。そういうタフな言辞に効き目のない時 は、この政権は退却する。それが如何に危険であるか、また外交の交渉力を毀損するかを解 っているのか疑問である
The wage surprise draws its inspiration from the Netherlands, where a consensus emerged in the early 1980’s that in order to sustain employment, the burden of taming rampant inflation should be shared by employers and the employed. That consensus was enshrined in the 1982 “Wassenaar Agreement,” named after The Hague suburb where it was forged.
Japan is now witnessing the emergence of a similar national consensus, or, rather, the Dutch consensus in reverse: a shared sense that the government, major industries, and organized labor should work together to increase wages and bonuses (while facilitating incentives that could enhance productivity).
In the documentary, former Labour ministers reflect on their decision to open the doors to workers from Eastern Europe in 2004, when Poland and seven other countries joined the EU. この番組の中で、前の労働党政権の労務大臣は2004年の労働党政権のポーランドなどの 7つの国に対する移民制限緩和の政策について回顧した。
Jack Straw, foreign secretary from 2001 to 2006, said: “The predications were completely catastrophic. I mean, they were wrong by a factor of ten. On immigration, it was bluntly a nightmare and it got more and more difficult. “We did get it wrong and I deeply regret it. I regret it because it undermines trust in government, if you’re that wrong.” また前の政権で2001－2006年の外務大臣であったJack Strawは「以前の予想は全く誤っ ていて破滅的だ。10倍位の予測の数字の誤りがある。この問題は悪夢のようで更に解決 の困難なものになっている。我々の政策は失敗だった。私は深く後悔している。それは 政府への国民お信頼を傷つけることになった」
But David Blunkett, home secretary from 2001 to 2004, told the programme he did not regret the decision. He said: “I’m unapologetic because if you don’t have legal, managed migration and people don’t sign up so they pay national insurance and tax, they’ll work illegally.” Theresa May, Home Secretary, told the programme: “I think the problem in the past has been that there’s been this general assumption that immigration was always good for the economy. しかし2001－2004年の内務相のDavid Blunkettは後悔していないという。「私は後悔 していない。正規の移民が管理されるかたちで存在しないなら違法な不正規の移民が 増えるだけだから」内務相のTheresa Mayは「問題は過去において、移民は常に経済 にプラスという前提があったことだと思う」と述べた ttp://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/three-out-of-four-want-immigration-cut-says-poll-1-3258318 Three out of four want immigration cut, says poll
The obvious solution here is for Congress and the White House to stop manipulating the tax code as America's de facto energy policy: Thorough federal tax reform should sunset this arbitrary favoritism for wind energy and other politically favored industries. ホワイトハウスと議会は税制の操作による、この政治的にバイアスされたエネルギー 産業への優遇措置を期限どおり終結させるべきである
Late in 2013, Big Wind fought fiercely to renew its expiring subsidy but failed. We hope that means many members of Congress see this as a mature industry that long ago outgrew its infancy and understand that the nation's new wealth of lower-cost natural gas has profoundly rewritten U.S. energy economics. 風力発電機業の大手は昨年、優遇措置の延長に向けて積極的に活動したが支持を得るこ とに失敗している。議会の多くは、この産業が既に出発段階を超えたとみなしていて アメリカの低価格天然ガスの存在からもエネルギー経済上、支援する意味が少ない。
The wind lobbyists will be back in 2014, pleading for more handouts from American taxpayers. Tell your members of Congress that a government $17 trillion in debt ? and still borrowing heavily ? can't afford to keep protecting this industry from cheaper competition. 風力発電ロビーは今年も優遇措置獲得のためにガムバルようであるけれど、国家財政の 17兆ドルの負債の存在から見ても、安価な代替のある産業を支援すべき意味は無い
Travelling with a convoy of government troops in South Sudan seeking to retake the rebel-held town of Bor, the BBC's Alastair Leithead witnesses the forces coming under attack. 南スーダンの Borを反政府勢力から奪還すべく政府軍が行動中だが、待ち伏せ攻撃で ロケット砲などの襲撃を受けている This is the army fighting the army with tanks and heavy weapons - and tens of thousands of people here have been forced to flee across the Nile and are now in need of food and clean water.
ttp://www.businessinsider.com/eurasia-group-10-greatest-risks-2014-1#ixzz2piguAeV6 EURASIA GROUP: Here Are The 10 Greatest Risks To Global Stability STEVEN PERLBERG JAN. 7, 2014, 7:22 AM 2,2 ユーラシアグループ：2014年のグローバル・リスクTOP10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. America’s troubled alliances アメリカの外交における影響力の低下に伴ってロシア、中国の台頭。 Obama administration, with a tactical and risk-averse approach to foreign policy along with a weak (and not well-trusted) second-term foreign policy team. Add in a handful of significant missteps?regarding Syria, the response to the NSA/Snowden affair, and the need for domestic focus on congressional infighting and the Obamacare rollout fiasco?and you have the makings of a perfect US foreign policy storm. リスク回避型のオバマ政権の外交姿勢と、オバマ第二期の国内の支持の弱さがシリア 外交でのミスやNSA盗聴問題、スノーデン問題と合わせ、議会対策と国内問題処理に 悩殺されるとみられることからアメリカ外交に問題が多そうな
2. Diverging markets Voters in six of the largest emerging markets?Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey インド、ブラジル、インドネシア、トルコ、南アフリカ、コロンビアは選挙の年。 途上国経済の成長鈍化の予想されるなか、幾つもの途上国で政治的な変動の起きる可能性 それらの国は新たな政治サイクルに入る可能性。
3. The new China The biggest risks economically are in the financial sector, where the leadership recognizes significant problems with bank solvency and is likely to proceed with removing moral hazard in the banking system to lay the foundation for tougher liberalizations over the coming years 中国経済の最大の問題は金融セクター。指導部は銀行の支払い可能性問題とともに金融 セクターの改革を婚儀数年にわたって慎重に進める。
Beijing hopes it can smoothly navigate a transition to a normalized banking sector, but that will be difficult without triggering a larger credit event. Yet politicians are becoming more tolerant of these risks, and with key officials involved in financial reform such as Wang Qishan and Zhou Xiaochuan set to retire in 2017, these changes will be among the regime’s most front-loaded. 政府は銀行セクターの近代化を図りたいが大きな信用の問題抜きにそれを行うことは困難 しかし指導部は以前よりは、今はこの問題への取組に積極的
4. Iran We believe that the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran will probably reach a final deal (60% chance). 我々の推測ではイランとP5+1の核爆弾開発抑制の合意の成功確率は60％である。 The probability of a deal creates significant risks in itself, especially given sharper tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the expanding proxy war in Iraq, and the negative impact of a steep decline in oil prices on petrostates (more on that with risk #5). But that other 40% is still a very big number, and it’s worth looking at what happens if diplomacy fails. 合意が成功すれば、それはいらんとサウジアラビアの間に緊張が高まり、これがイラクで の代理戦争などに発展する。また合意は石油価格の大幅低下につながる可能性があり影響 がおよぶ。また失敗の可能性40％と言うのは決して低い値ではない。
8. The Middle East’s expanding unrest そして中東の不安定化が拡大 Middle East, gripped by instability for the past three years, has yet to reach bottom.
9. The capricious Kremlin The implications of an all-powerful leader with a shrinking support base and a flair for the unpredictable are worrisome. Policy has already become more erratic and lacking in strategic vision. ロシア政権への国民の支持は低下、その政策は荒っぽさが目立つようになって戦略的展望を 欠いている Or the sudden dismemberment of Russia’s state-owned (but reasonably professional) news organization Ria Novosti to be replaced by a more tightly controlled outfit run by an ultra-nationalist friend of the president. And though the technocratic elites are grumbling, Putin isn’t yet listening. During 2014, as the economic picture remains grim, Russia’s investment climate will suffer from greater policy unpredictability. 国営メディアの突然の解体や極右ナショナリストの手による代替などにエリート官僚が不満を いうがプーチンは聞き入れない。経済状況は良くなっておらずロシアへの投資は予知不可能性 に悩まされる
10. Turkey Among emerging markets, stability in Turkey is especially vulnerable from a range of directions. In particular, Turkey is facing serious spillover effects from the ongoing civil war in Syria and a reemergence of the Kurdish insurgency; and Erdogan’s increasingly emotional and aggressive behavior threatens to further unhinge market and investor confidence. トルコは隣国シリアの内戦の余波や国内クルド族のゲリラに悩まされエルドアン首相の最近の 政治問題などもあってトルコへの投資やトルコの市場への足かせになる
The Taliban, realising that the White House had no serious desire to defeat them by force of arms, decided that there was no point in taking part in the negotiating process. As the old Taliban saying goes, the West may have all the watches, but we have all the time.
And so, if the NSE's predictions prove to be accurate and the Taliban retake all the territory vacated by the withdrawing American and British troops, then Afghanistan, which was supposed to be "Obama's War", will turn out to be the single greatest foreign policy disaster of the Obama presidency. If that happens, even Democrat voters will be asking whether the sacrifices made by the thousands of American service personnel who have been killed or suffered serious injury in the Afghan conflict were in vain.
State broadcaster accuses companies of owing billions in taxes 国営TVは不動産開発業者が数十億元の税金を支払っていないというのだが
CCTVは昨年の11月に不動産開発業者が不動産の売却に関連して税金を正しく支払って いないと糾弾する番組を先週放映した。さらに先週には新たな番組で国内最大の不動 産開発業者であるVankeを槍玉にあげている So what has CCTV said? It launched its first fusillade in November, saying that 45 real estate companies owed Rmb3.8tn ($628bn) in land taxes. It alleged they had regularly flouted a law requiring that land appreciation tax be paid when they sell 85 per cent of homes in any new development. Officials across the country “have to seriously study and solve this problem”, the CCTV anchor intoned. 昨年の11月の番組ではCCTVは45社の不動産開発業者が3.8兆元の税金を支払っていないと 糾弾した。開発した不動産の85％を販売した時点で支払われるべき税金が納められず 「この問題は真剣に追求されるべき」とアンカーが述べている。
この非難に対して中国の不動産開発業者はいわれのない誹謗だとして一斉に否定している。 さらに税制当局も誤解があると言っている。格付機関のフィッチは不動産業者の販売と 納税について特に問題はないと言っている。 Fitch Ratings said it was “normal and consistent” for there to be a timing gap between the sale of property and payment of land taxes. Even the Chinese tax authority rubbished the report. “This is a misunderstanding and misreading of tax policies and the way taxes are levied,” the state administration of taxation said.
しかし、このCCTVの不動産開発業者への攻撃は単純ではないと見られていて中国政府高層 の政治的意図が背後にあるものと推測されている。政府は不動産価格の高騰を抑制しよう と苦慮してきて、不動産販売に規制を加えようとしている。さらに習近平政権には不動産 開発セクターと地方政府の関係を断ち切りたいという思惑がある。 But the problem for Chinese developers is that the issue may not simply be a question of true or false. There are growing suspicions that CCTV is preparing the ground for an official assault on the property sector. “It is self-evident that the government is getting its knife ready,” said an opinion piece on the website of China Securities Journal, a state-run business newspaper. The CCTV reports could be a precursor to a change of tack, signalling that Xi Jinping’s year-old administration wants to put an end to the cosy relationship that has developed between property companies and local governments.
習近平政権の反腐敗キャンペーンで国内の贅沢品の販売にはすでに影響が現れている。 CCTVのキャンペーンは習近平の次のターゲットが不動産開発セクターであるかもしれ ないことを示す。しかし不動産開発セクターへの攻撃は経済的に重大な影響を及ぼす 恐れもある Mr Xi’s campaigns against bribery and wasteful spending have already cut into the fortunes of global companies from watchmakers to drugmakers. If the CCTV reports are indeed a sign that his next target is the Chinese property sector, the consequences for the global economy will be even farther reaching.
＊名物ベテラン記者のウッドワードが書いている In a new memoir, former defense secretary Robert Gates unleashes harsh judgments about President Obama’s leadership and his commitment to the Afghanistan war, writing that by early 2010 he had concluded the president “doesn’t believe in his own strategy, and doesn’t consider the war to be his. For him, it’s all about getting out.”
Leveling one of the more serious charges that a defense secretary could make against a commander in chief sending forces into combat, Gates asserts that Obama had more than doubts about the course he had charted in Afghanistan. The president was “skeptical if not outright convinced it would fail,” Gates writes in “Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War.”（ry
The relationship between senior military leaders and their civilian commander in chief is often tense, and that was certainly my experience under both Bush and Obama. Bush was willing to disagree with his senior military advisers, but he never (to my knowledge) questioned their motives or mistrusted them personally. Obama was respectful of senior officers and always heard them out, but he often disagreed with them and was deeply suspicious of their actions and recommendations. Bush seemed to enjoy the company of the senior military; I think Obama considered time spent with generals and admirals an obligation.
A key cause is excess plant China where fixed capital investment topped $4 trillion last year, matching Europe and the US combined. “This is transmitting a deflationary impulse through the global system,” said Julian Callow from Barclays.
（サムスンについて） This was technology in search of a purpose. As a fast follower, Samsung is a fearsome competitor. But it needs someone to follow. CESで展示したいくつかのデモは技術の応用分野を模索しているようだ。サムスンは 速度の早い（他企業で開発された製品の）フォロワーで、恐るべき競争相手であるが しかしながら、それは（コピペ元ととしての）フォローすべき誰かの存在を必要とする
（SONYについて） The contrast with Sony could not have been greater. Yes, there was plenty of hardware fetishism on display. It almost seemed a throwback to better times, as Sony executives talked of packing ever more into smaller, sleeker devices. In truth, though, Sony’s ability to differentiate itself through miniaturisation went out with the analogue world SONYは対比的で（独自のモノを作ろうという）殆どハードウェア・フェチシズムとも 言うべき製品をCESに展示している。それはかってのSONYのようにより小型のより薄い 製品を作ろうとしている。SONYのミニチュアリゼーションというのは同社の昔からの 差別化戦略である Mr Hirai is trying to pick up the pace as Sony searches for its digital destiny. But the familiar questions remain: can it execute on the plan, how fast can it move ? and how much pain is it prepared to take along the way? SONYの平井社長はディジタル時代のSONY復活に向けてペースをあげようとしているの だが問題は戦略の実行の確実さ、その早さ、痛みに耐える耐性であろう
FTに途上国経済を論じる「beyondbrics」というコーナーがあって中国経済について 面白い人材が参加しているので読む価値のあるものと思うのですが最近の評論のひとつ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/01/08/hello-2014-biting-the-bullet-in-china/#axzz2pu21XPvV Hello 2014: biting the bullet in China Jan 8, 2014 11:48am by guest writer The 14th in our series of guest posts on the outlook for 2014 is by Andy Xie
中国経済ウオッチャーのエコノミストたちが今習近平政権に注目しているのは改革の 成否ではなく不動産バブルの行方である・・ ・・・ Since 2008 China has depended on a vast property bubble to fund fixed asset investment that leads the economy. Ambitious structural reforms usually involve a period of economic slowdown. Doing so amidst a bubble economy may trigger a deep downturn. This is why financial markets have been focusing on the downside from bursting of the bubble rather than the upside from successful implementation of the reform program.
投資主導の中国経済を国内消費指導に転換する（という李克強の政策）のは容易では なく短期に可能のことでもない・・ ・・・・I suspect that China won’t be able to repeat its experience from a dozen years ago. No significant investment response is likely before the reforms have been carried out and the bubble economy deflated. In the late 1990s, China had a massive labour surplus and low export market share. Foreign direct investment was waiting for a signal to pour in to take advantage of the situation. China joining the WTO was the signal that multinationals were waiting for. Today China’s export market is saturated, and overcapacity is widespread across most industries. Hence, even if the government manages to shift the economy to consumption from investment, there is no urgency to expand capacity now. Waiting for a better economy to begin reform is likely to be a long one.
今の中国経済の最高優先順位であるべき政策はバブルの拡大阻止である。 The latest economic works conference has put controlling debt risk as the top policy goal this year. Its substance must be stopping the bubble economy. Otherwise, the debt risk will only rise.
その意味から、2014年の中国経済に成長は良いことではない The growth news from China may not be good in 2014.
経済成長の鈍化が中国社会の不安定さを増すというのは誤りで今では労働力不足があり 経済の沈静化は社会の安定性を増すだろう An economic downturn wouldn’t threaten China’s social stability at all. Shortage of manual labour is widespread at present. A downturn would cool inflationary pressures and decrease living costs, which would enhance social stability. （後略）
QUESTION: The Chinese seem to have significantly expanded the area in the South China Sea in which they say that commercial fishermen must receive permission from the Chinese Government to fish. MS. PSAKI: Mm-hmm. QUESTION: Is there any reaction from the United States? MS. PSAKI: Mm-hmm. I believe you’re referring to the Hainan provincial restrictions. The passing of these restrictions on other countries’ fishing activities in disputed portions of the South China Sea is a provocative and potentially dangerous act. These regulations appear to apply to the maritime space within China’s so-called nine-dash line. China has not offered any explanation or basis under international law for these extensive maritime claims.
QUESTION: In general, the United States has counseled that these maritime disputes in the South China Sea not be decided unilaterally, but -- MS. PSAKI: Mm-hmm. QUESTION: -- worked through ASEAN. So is it your view that this is a unilateral decision that is against your advice to those involved to settle this through ASEAN? MS. PSAKI: Well, certainly. I think to your point, our longstanding position has been that all concerned parties should avoid any unilateral action that raises tensions and undermines the prospects for a diplomatic or other peaceful resolution of differences. And clearly, passing legislation that claims ownership over territory in a disputed area would certainly be of concern to us, as I expressed.
QUESTION: Can I move the subject to Afghanistan? MS. PSAKI: Sure. Do we have any more on China? Go ahead. QUESTION: So, do you have any thoughts on Japan’s willingness and calls to establish an emergency hotline with China, given the uptick in maritime tensions? MS. PSAKI: I haven’t seen that specifically. As we’ve long said, we support efforts by either country to resolve differences through dialogue. So if that’s an effort toward that, that would be positive, but I’d have to check with our team and see if there’s more specific reaction to that.
QUESTION: (Inaudible) follow up on the Hainan province announcement? MS. PSAKI: Mm-hmm. QUESTION: How are you going to advise your United States commercial vessels or whatever trying to do activities in the area? MS. PSAKI: I don’t have any update on that. Obviously, this announcement just came out, but beyond that, I’ll see if there’s more we have to add on that front.
かの有名な9条の元 マッカーサー三原則（「マッカーサーノート」）第二原則 （原文） War as a sovereign right of the nation is abolished. Japan renounces it as an instrumentality for settling its disputes and even for preserving its own security. It relies upon the higher ideals which are now stirring the world for its defense and its protection.No Japanese Army, Navy, or Air Force will ever be authorized and no rights of belligerency will ever be conferred upon any Japanese force. （邦訳） 国権の発動たる戦争は、廃止する。日本は、紛争解決のための手段としての戦争、さら に自己の安全を保持するための手段としての戦争をも、放棄する。日本はその防衛と保 護を、今や世界を動かしつつある崇高な理想に委ねる。日本が陸海空軍を持つ権能は、 将来も与えられることはなく、交戦権が日本軍に与えられることもない。 ttp://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%9B%BD%E6%86%B2%E6%B3%95%E7%AC%AC9%E6%9D%A1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GHQが日本国から未来永劫に国軍を抹消しようという明瞭な方針で占領政策を進めたわけ です（もっとも朝鮮戦争勃発で、あっという間に方針が180度変わりますけど）
Judges, anti-corruption investigators and official auditors have launched a barrage of attacks against the administration of Yingluck Shinawatra, prime minister, prompting speculation of a possible repeat of a 2008 “administrative coup” that ousted a previous government. タイの反腐敗調査委員会は政府に対して対抗的な姿勢を表明し、このため2008年 のようなクーデター勃発の憶測も発生
Analysts say the sudden burst of condemnation from supposedly independent official institutions underscores establishment hostility to the Yingluck government ? and could be a means used to overthrow it if an opposition shutdown of Bangkok, planned from Monday, fails to do so. “It’s difficult to avoid a sense of deja vu,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “The decisive direction of this may be determined by agencies that ostensibly promote accountability.” 反腐敗調査委員会は独立の組織ということになっているが、政府に対向する姿勢を 明確にしたことで政府に批判的なエスタブリッシュメントが、反政府勢力の政府 打倒の行動が失敗した場合に、政府を追求するために使われるのではとの憶測が。 バンコクのChulalongkorn大学教授のThitinan Pongsudhirakは「これはdeja vu と言わざるをえない。この（委員会の示した）明確な方向性は表面的には政府の アカウンタビリティを求めている」 While the institutions all say they are independent, analysts said their decisions appeared to stray clearly into politics.
ttp://fLGFV credit risk and the rate wall of China David Keohane Spending some time as AV’s Bombay wallah. Noticeably sweatier but not much else has changed. 中国地方政府のLGFVのクレディット・リスクと金利の壁
From BofAML’s Bin Gao and Claudio Piron (our emphasis):
The trouble with higher interest rates is that a large amount of bonds are coming due for rollover. The heaviest redemption will come relatively soon in March and April of this year. Knowing the risk, the NDRC has recently issued a directive, allowing local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) to roll maturing bonds in the market.
The trouble is, as the urbanization expands into third and fourth tier cities, the quality of borrower worsens even more. Looking at the LGFVs, recent borrowing have been concentrated in the AA segment, a sector whose yield has risen a lot more and has passed 2011 peak (Chart of the day). Worrying about the cost of bond roll, we examined the credit spread, yield spread between policy bank bonds and credit bonds, and argued it would widen. Since then, overall yield has moved higher and the spread has been fluctuating based on the market closes (Chart 5). Yet, the AA spread failed to narrow.
So, again, why the aggressive behavior now? One answer Sinologists give is bureaucratic: The military made me do it. The argument here is that China's civilian leaders, who are always looking for ways to increase their own support within the competing factions of the Communist Party, will accordingly give the military more resources and more leeway to garner that support.
The other argument offered to explain recent Chinese behavior is linked to American weakness.
If one had to predict, dealing with Beijing in the year ahead is not likely to get any easier ? if anything, it may be even more difficult.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. added just 74,000 jobs in December to mark the smallest increase since the start of 2011, suggesting that the nation entered 2014 with less momentum than a raft of other economic indicators had signaled. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 6.7% from 7.0% - the lowest level since October 2008 - but the decline appeared to occur mainly because more people dropped out of the labor force.