South Korea Risks Overplaying Its Hand with Japan

By Karl Friedhoff

While his many detractors would never admit it, former President Lee Myung-bak oversaw an impressive rise in South Korea’s international profile. This rise, combined with Korea’s economic and technological achievements, have created a new confidence among the Korean public—polling data shows many perceive the country as increasingly influential on the international scene.

The Park Geun-hye administration is now acting on that confidence in its diplomatic dealings, but it is in very real danger of overplaying its hand when it comes to relations with Japan.

So far, Seoul has snubbed most of Tokyo’s advances for high-level meetings and stuck to a line that Japan needs to do more to address historical grievances first.

A hard line on Japan is thought to be an easy domestic sell that creates benefits for the administration. The problem is that there is no clear evidence to support this—President Lee’s visit in August last year to the Liancourt Rocks, administered by Korea but also claimed by Japan, gave him virtually no increase in his approval rating. The hard line President Park is now taking against Japan has also failed to help her approval ratings. (A more convincing case can be made that being tough on Japan helps to quell criticism from a vocal anti-Japan minority.)

But more importantly, a hard line on Japan could begin to cost Korea internationally—if it has not already—by eroding the positive international image it has worked so hard to create.

If Korea begins to be seen as unreasonable and unwilling to work with Japan—at a time when Japan has made it clear it is willing to work with Korea—it will create more distance in Korea’s relationship with the U.S. for one.

Such a position may help growing ties with China, Seoul’s main trading partner and key player in dealing with North Korea. But South Korea’s current position on Japan will ultimately harm its position in negotiations with the U.S. on issues such as the South’s desire for U.S. approval to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, and the cost sharing arrangement for the U.S. military in Korea.

As policymakers and analysts begin to see Korea as being unreasonable in its handling of Japan, the U.S. negotiating position is likely to harden.

Without a change, Seoul will increasingly be seen as the odd man out, especially as U.S.-Japan ties seem newly invigorated following the recent meetings of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

President Park can show bold leadership on Japan, and she can quiet the inevitable criticism she will face from the vocal minority by articulating to the quiet majority clear reasons for doing so. As a previous commentary on this page noted, a majority of South Koreans are in favor of a Park-Abe summit.

It would not mean forgetting the past, but it would establish a credible way for Korea-Japan relations to get back on track before the exacting international costs take their toll.

The author is a Program Officer in the Public Opinion Studies Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and a Mansfield Foundation U.S.-Korea Nexus Scholar. Views expressed here are his own.