Most orbital debris is U.S. or Russian in origin. But China’s space program exacerbates an urgent issue.
In one of this fall’s most anticipated blockbusters, Gravity, an astronaut duo played by George Clooney and Sandra Bullock are left adrift in space after their shuttle is destroyed. The culprit is Hollywood’s newest villain: space debris. Unfortunately for present day astronauts, this is not just Hollywood’s febrile imagination at work. As innocuous as it may sound, space debris is extremely hazardous and could even be lethal. In fact, the National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA) has initiated an entire program, the Orbital Debris Program Office, dedicated to studying and monitoring this man-made phenomena. The international community, including the European Union and United Nations, has meanwhile been pursuing resolutions to mitigate and reduce space debris.
Orbital Debris: Just Trash?
NASA classifies space debris into two groups: natural (meteoroid) and artificial (man-made) particles. Most artificial debris is found in orbit around the Earth; hence it is called orbital debris. NASA further defines orbital debris as “any man-made object in orbit about the Earth which no longer serves a useful function.” This includes nonfunctional spacecraft, abandoned launch vehicle stages, mission-related debris and fragmentation debris.
Presently, both the Department of Defense (DOD) and NASA track orbital debris as miniscule as 2 inches (5 centimeters) in size. Per NASA estimates, there are more than 500,000 pieces of debris larger than a marble and up to 20,000 pieces larger than a softball floating around the Earth’s atmosphere. This debris is incredibly dangerous as it whizzes in orbit at speeds in excess of 17,500 mph. At these velocities, even the smallest piece could incapacitate a satellite or spacecraft.
As early as the 1970s, scientists working on both the U.S. and Russian space programs were becoming increasingly alarmed by the exponential growth of orbital debris. NASA’s Donald J. Kessler studied the potential dangers of colliding space debris. In what was later dubbed the “Kessler Syndrome,” he postulated that the volume of space debris increases with the number of launches, especially in the low Earth orbit (LEO). Over time, the density of debris will increase, causing collusions that produce even more debris. Often, this debris will fall harmlessly to Earth. But Kessler believed the remainder could ultimately form a “debris belt” around the Earth that would inhibit space travel. A 2008 report by the Council on Foreign Relations concluded that orbital debris is like radioactive fallout after a nuclear detonation because it can linger for many years.
Currently, the LEO has the highest concentration and rate of growth of debris than any other orbit. Debris concentrations more than doubled in the LEO between 2004 and 2009. There are myriad reasons why the LEO is a preferred orbit but one of the most important is that it is good for Earth observation missions (weather, intelligence and communications satellites). Most satellites operate on Sun-synchronous orbits in this region at altitudes of between 370 to 560 miles (600 and 900 km). As a result, this is also the orbit where the most collisions occur. The UN’s Office of Outer Space Affairs Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space draft report in 2010 notes that the first collision in this region occurred on February10, 2009 between an Iridium-33 (U.S.) and Cosmos-2251 (Russian) satellite. This event alone produced more than 2,200 traceable items.
The emergence of a new player in space complicates the issue. With China’s first successful satellite launch in 1970, the advent of manned spaceflight in 2003 with astronaut Lang Liwei, a proposed Moon rover launch by the end of this year and the planned Tiangong-2 (Heavenly Palace-2) space lab to debut around 2015, the volume of orbital debris is expanding rapidly. This amplification of the “Kessler Syndrome” threatens not only the international community’s stellar assets but also Chinese ones as well, including the safety of their astronauts, commonly referred to as taikonauts.
Photo Credit: REUTERS/Jason Lee
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JMT
This article is a fascinating (albeit brief) look into what is an interesting and important topic. I did not particularly know much about it before now, however I did not interpret it as being hopelessly anti-Chinese as some commentors/readers obviously have.
The main point of this article seems to be to highlight the increasing amount of space junk contributed by Chinese activites. However it seems clear to me that the vast bulk of space debis is Russian and American in origin. In my view countries should take full responsibility for minimising and reducing space debris whether they be American, Russian, Chinese or anyone else. Taking that further, the Chinese cannot justify a carefree attitude to space debris simply because more of the current space debris is American and Russian.
Some of the commentors to this article probably need to take a chill pill. It seems so easy for readers to interpret an article as pro/anti China or United States etc, but it doesn't have to be this way. Can't we just agree that space could do with a bit of a tidy up?
Dewey Last
Object Mass Reentry Date (age in years)
Mir 120,000 kg 23 March 2001 (15years) Skylab 69,000 kg 11 July 1979 (6 years) Salyut 7 40,000 kg 7 February 1991 (8 years)
There is a saying, "What goes up, must come down." The author has not researched "orbital decay", or purposely did not include the related topic. The lower orbiting debris will decay rapidly into the atmosphere, while the higher orbiting debris will take considerably more time.
Basically, the title of this article suggests China is mainly to blame. The largest objects are US and Russia. The questions to ask is: What orbit [high or low] did the China anti-satellite test have? What is the re-entry date of the debris?
——
I have not been posting recently due to having posts censored [a bit angry because of it]. Articles need to be completely researched. Articles like this do not paint the whole picture of the problem. And yes, there is a problem, however orbital debris has a life span. I just want to vent a bit here about the way posts are censored. Also the quality of articles. Especially like this one which is anti-China in nature.
Observer
Junk and chinese = fit perfectly.
MRM
China again disregards the impact of their actions on the global commons, much like the massive increase in air pollution from brown coal and sea pollution from dumped garbage. Soon there will be dead Chinese pigs floating in space, and they will continue to complain about the west. Blaming the west is valid only in that is where China obtained the ability to destroy the environment at an unprecedented rate.
F u
Anyone who has set precedents of creating space junk needs to shut their trap.
It's going to take another 50 years for China to catch up to the amount of space junk created by the U.S. alone, but I doubt it will given that China has not even come close, not to mention it recently stopped hazardous and recycled waste imported from the West, fulfilled promises of reducing emissions (beyond India's promise), is one of few countries to ban plastic grocery bags, pursued green technologies despite Western resistance, having the lower energy consumption and emissions per capita, etc.
F u
Here's another one: Looking forward when Western coal exports to China is eliminated if not reduced – the primary cause of air pollutants.
Oro Invictus
Although I do not deign to suggest I serve as any sort of representative for the commentators here, I would still like to apologize to the author for the extraordinarily poor character of the majority of comments here. Of the comments at this time of writing (the first 18), only Jonathan, TDog, the author (VornDick), Errol, James R.S., and, arguably, cdk and MYK’s could not be construed as trolling. The sheer number of comments made here out of insecurity or such is appalling, especially when it is clear most did not read the article. Indeed, I have no idea how so many blatantly inflammatory and non-constructive comments made it through the moderators.
In any case, thank you for the article, Mr. (Dr.?) VornDick, I appreciate anyone who brings to light the catastrophic impact of orbital debris and the threat of Kessler Syndrome. While I do wish the article was longer (it seemed too topical and could really have benefited from things such as statistics comparing the rate of orbital debris creation for each major nation-state), it was still a good article and one utterly undeserving of the childish lambasting it has received from the majority of comments here.
Paul Cobbaut
I agree it is a good article, but the bias is lousy. China hardly adds to the space debris compared to USA (check the numbers). The title should not have included China.
Paul Cobbaut
Why blame China when both Russia and USA did the exact same (launching a rocket to destroy a sattellite in orbit). Most debris out there is American and Russian, not Chinese! They gain nothing by increasing the debris in orbit.
RON.P
Hang the gunslinging criminals!
Kanes
Variable-orbit spy asattelites would be mostly at risk from space junk. may be the Chinese adventure in 2007 was to prevent a possible US spy sattelite over restive western China. USA copied Chinese technology a year later and a ship launched missile struck an orbital vehicle. That too contributed to space junk in no small measure. Economically, the financially weakest space agency and the most expensive rocket users will be the two biggest losers of space junk. Muddy the waters if you can compete best in muddied waters!
admiral Cheng
Love to know that the imperialists are jealous of China's achievements in Space. Sorry to disappoint you people again. In mere two more years China's space program is going to be the best and most techonologically advanced.
Lord Fauntleroy
American here: nobody really cares. Your medal is in the post.
magouyu
I just feel that there is nothing that China can be allowed or do and nothing that they do would not be met with western condemnation and accusation. the wholewestern media is rubbish. Until they are ready to accept China as a country and as a power (doesn't have to be Super power) its not worth reading any of their extremely biased and hypocritic articles on China, often donw without basis but with the sheer evilness and jealousy at heart.
swoosh
One reason why China should just ignore the west.
RONY.J
But keep an eye to ALciaDA