Russia likely to welcome Turkish bid for Shanghai membership

Turkey is already a "dialogue partner" of the SCO, and Turkish membership in the six-nation organization is probable, according to Russian analysts.

There has been no official statement on the issue from the Russian government.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sparked a debate over whether Ankara's axis is shifting from West to East, given the stalled negotiations with the European Union, when he said last week that Turkey, tired of a deadlock in its EU bid, could bid farewell to its EU aspirations and join the SCO instead. "I have recently said to Mr. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin: ‘Take us into the Shanghai Five. Take us and we say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?” Erdoğan said, referring to the SCO by its previous name.

Noting how it was seen as impossible until five years ago even to imagine lifting visa requirements between Russia and Turkey, the analysts say that Erdoğan is now talking of membership in the SCO, an organization that is set to become stronger in the near future. But experts say China may raise objections, given its unease with Ankara's stance towards the Uighurs, an ethnic Turkic community that complains of oppression at the hands of Beijing. Such an objection, however, might be overcome by Russian intervention to soften the Chinese stance, according to Russian experts.

According to Aslanbek Mozloyev, an analyst at the Diplomatic Academy of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the EU promotes a homogenous culture, which he said is the reason why the 27-nation bloc is keeping Turkey waiting. The SCO, on the other hand, is an organization characterized by the cultural diversity of its members.

“The cultural diversity among the SCO member states is obvious. Chinese, Slavic and Turkic civilizations are all represented in the SCO. India and Pakistan -- even though they are not members -- are also involved in the organization. Turkey's SCO accession may seem difficult, but it is possible,” Mozloyev said, adding that Russia will probably not say "no" to the request.

Mozloyev argued that international organizations set up after World War II are now facing major crises but noted that joining international organizations is still a need for nations. “Surviving by yourself is impossible. The SCO is not yet an alternative to the EU. However, as a matter of fact, the SCO's future is anticipated as being more successful and brighter than the EU's. Erdoğan is looking for a broader horizon than the one the EU can offer.”

The EU is already a club of states and sees Turkey as alien to its structure, says Mozloyev. “Turkey's announcement regarding possible SCO accession and the statement of willingness at the most senior level is a very positive development for Russia. Turkish-Russian ties are moving towards a strategic partnership,” said Mozloyev. He also noted that the SCO with Turkey's membership will be much more influential, with much more troubleshooting leverage across the region.

Turkey's SCO membership to change regional balance

Another Russian expert, Fyodr Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, says Turkish membership in the SCO might be possible but underlines that China would raise significant objections if Turkey actually makes a request for membership.

In addition, the possible membership of Turkey -- a country that conducts an independent foreign policy and plays a major role in world politics -- is likely to affect the balance of power within the SCO, according to Lukyanov.

"The issue of the Uighurs is important. China believes Turkey supports them [in their struggle against the Chinese government]. Therefore, China might say that Turkish membership in the SCO is conditional on Turkey cutting that support. I don't believe Turkey would agree to that," he said. "But I still believe that Turkey could be a member of the SCO, just like it is a member of NATO. Unlike NATO, SCO is not a military organization."

But others say Turkish membership is unlikely given Ankara's status as a NATO member and a US ally. Sergey Markov, a former Russian parliamentarian, says some facts should not be forgotten, underlining that there is no country that is both a full member of the SCO and an ally of the United States. "The SCO is not a pro-US organization and does not necessarily pursue policies that are in line with US priorities. Turkey, on the other hand, is a NATO member and a US ally. Turkey would have to give up NATO and the US in order to become a full member of the SCO. But Turkey is not ready for this," he said.

According to Markov, China would block any Turkish bid to join the SCO, meaning that Turkey could only be an observer in the SCO, not a member. He said India, an observer in the SCO and a US ally, is an example.

The US has responded with skepticism to Erdoğan's Shanghai statement. "Obviously it would be interesting, given the fact that Turkey is also a NATO member, so we have to see how that goes," US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters earlier this week.