Turkey's popularity in Middle East still high but declining

The findings of the joint survey conducted by TESEV, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and KA Research Company were released at a press conference in İstanbul on Thursday. According to the results of the survey, which was conducted in all Middle Eastern countries except Israel, Morocco, Algeria and Sudan, the overall approval rating of Turkey was 69 percent, a fall from last year's 78 percent.

Professor Mensur Akgün, the director of the Global Political Trends Center (GPoT), said, “Turkey's brand value is still important despite a decline, and it must be protected because it is Turkey's most important soft power element in the region.” Akgün urged Turkey to “consider revising its model because some alternatives have emerged,” pointing out that “the most important issue in the region as cited by respondents was economic problems, whereas the common perception cited in Turkey was the Palestine issue.”

On the other hand, the president of TESEV, Can Paker, who described the survey as “measuring the pulse of the region,” considered the results to be very positive because “they indicate that Turkey's popularity in the region is stabilizing after making made a leap in the last four years.” For Paker, the survey results show that “Turkey is still an acceptable actor in the region from which there are expectations.”

In a detailed presentation of the figures in the survey, TESEV's foreign policy program director, Sabiha Şenyücel Gündoğar, summarized the issues and countries that stood out in the research, which was conducted in August via phone interviews. Noting that there was an overall decrease in optimism among those in the Middle East, with only 52 percent of respondents who were hopeful for the future as opposed to 62 percent last year, Gündoğar connected such a decline with the difficulties in the wake of the Arab Spring. She said that “while people in Iran prioritize economic problems, the major concern of Syrians was security and not the removal of [Bashar al-] Assad.”

One interesting finding of the survey was the perception of sectarianism in the region. Although both Akgün and Gündoğar emphasized that there is no sectarian lens in Turkey when looking at the Middle East, both directed attention to the existence of such a perception due to the 28 percent of people who felt that that Turkey pursues a sectarian policy in the Middle East. According to Professor Akgün, “Turkey's policy is not in that [sectarian] direction, but if there is such a perception, then measures to correct it should be taken.” Similarly, Gündoğar said, “We do not perceive the Middle East from a sectarian lens, but any statement by Turkey goes through a sectarian sieve in the region,” adding that “Turkey used to be perceived as more neutral, but it took part in the Syrian conflict and when you take sides, the other party could become sensitive.”

The founder of the KA Research Company, Bülent Kılınçarslan, called on policymakers to closely analyze the outcomes on a country-by-country basis to make a healthy evaluation of the trends in the Middle East. “During the presidency of Süleyman Demirel [in the 1990s] we conducted similar surveys in Central Asia. Everyone was in love with Turkey at the time, but it declined in the following years,” Kılınçarslan said. According to him, Turkey's relations with not only Syria, but Iraq as well are also influential in the perception of a sectarian Turkey. “Since Tariq al-Hashemi, the Iraqi fugitive vice president is currently in exile in İstanbul, Turkey is considered in the Sunni bloc.”

Defining these joint research studies as a “perfect example of second track diplomacy,” Michael Meier from Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in İstanbul said that “the role of Turkey is increasing in the region as it is a very successful model for the Middle East, which is why we should support Turkey's accession to the EU.”

According to the survey, Israel maintained its traditional spot as the number one threat to the region with the exception of Iran and Iraq, while respondents considered the US as the biggest security threat.

Turkey's positive perception in Syria was also in sharp decline as 65 percent of Syrians felt that Turkey's approach to their country was hostile as opposed to just 16 percent in 2011.