Interception of Syrian plane may leave scar on relations with Russia

In past years, Turkey and Russia have not allowed any foreign policy issues over which the two countries have a different stance to cast a shadow on bilateral relations. “But the interception of the plane may represent a crossroad with respect to this attitude,” Sinan Ülgen, chairman of the İstanbul-based Economy and Foreign Policy Research Center (EDAM), told Sunday’s Zaman.

In fact, he believes, Russian President Vladimir Putin may once again think of putting off his already postponed visit to Turkey, currently scheduled for Dec. 3, should Turkey take further steps that would disturb Russia.

Despite disagreeing on issues such as the crisis in Syria and the early warning radar system that Turkey allowed NATO to install in Malatya despite Russia’s reaction against it, both countries have “agreed to disagree,” and bilateral relations have been fairly smooth so far. But since the Syrian crisis began, relations have for the first time gotten somewhat tense, though only mildly, when Turkey intercepted a Syrian passenger plane nearly two weeks ago and seized its cargo, which, according to Turkish officials, contained ammunition, and radar parts according to Russian officials.

At an international conference in İstanbul on Oct. 13, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan once again criticized Russia, though not mentioning it by name, for its stance on the crisis in Syria, saying, “If we continue to remain immobile because of the attitude of one or two members of the five permanent members [of the UN Security Council], then it’s a very dangerous future for Syria.”

In an effort to soothe tensions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters during a visit to Luxembourg on Monday that nobody should be concerned over bilateral relations between the countries. “Last week’s incident in Ankara will not damage Turkish-Russian relations,” he said, referring to the intercepted plane, although he added that the Russian side is waiting for an explanation from Turkey about its decision to force the Syrian plane to land in Ankara.

While Russian authorities maintained that international regulations allow radar parts to be transported by a civilian plane and described the cargo as “legal cargo,” Erdoğan pointed out a day after the incident that the plane was forced to land because a civilian plane cannot carry materials used in the defense industry. But Putin obviously doesn’t agree. “It’s only the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council that can serve as a basis for limiting weapons supplies. In all other cases, nobody can use any pretext to dictate to Russia how it should conduct trade and with whom,” Putin was reported as saying on Wednesday at a meeting of a state commission on arms trade.

According to Ülgen, who noted that Turkey and Russia have made a point of not criticizing each other in front of the press in the past, Putin’s message was mainly addressed to Turkey. İlyas Kemaloğlu, the Eurasia advisor to the Ankara-based Center For Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), partly agreed. “Putin’s statement is a message to both Turkey and the US,” he told Sunday’s Zaman. But considering that Turkey and Russia have made much headway in bilateral relations in recent years, he doesn’t believe the countries’ diverging attitudes on the crisis in Syria would adversely affect bilateral relations to the extent of bringing about any major change.

While Turkey and Russia developed a similar stance regarding the presence of foreign powers in the Black Sea, with Turkey not allowing, during the Russia-Georgian conflict in 2008, US ships to enter the Black Sea, the interests of the two countries seem to diverge in the Caucasus and Central Asia. While Turkey’s efforts to establish closer ties with the countries in the region seem to be mainly focused on cultural and economic areas, Russia made efforts to achieve integration with Central Asian countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union while promoting economic and military cooperation. And efforts made by Turkey to further strengthen ties in the region are usually viewed with suspicion by Russia, which tends to see the region as its own backyard.

Turkey and Russia have so far managed to be active in the region alongside each other without a problem. But according to Kemaloğlu, should Turkey make a move aiming to increase its influence in the region to the detriment of Russia, then the risk of conflict may appear. While Ülgen is of the opinion that Turkey’s weight in Central Asia is presently no match for that of Russia, Hasan Ali Karasar from Bilkent University doesn’t even think that Russia and Turkey could be viewed as rivals in either Central Asia or in the Caucasus. “Neither Russia nor Turkey are economically strong enough to challenge each other,” he told Sunday’s Zaman.

Both countries have managed to have compartmentalized their differences so far while achieving great progress in trade, energy and tourism. The Turkey-Russia High Level Cooperation Council was established in 2010, and visa requirements between the countries were practically abolished last year.

Turkey and Russia have a trade volume of $30 billion, $24 billion of which is Russian exports, mainly gas, to Turkey. According to data from the Turkish Ministry of Economy, there are nearly 1,400 Russian firms active in Turkey while more than 2,000 Turkish firms are doing business in Russia. Turkey’s total direct investment in Russia amounts to $10 billion, which represents Turkey’s biggest investment abroad, while Turkish construction firms have so far had a total turnover of $35 billion in projects in Russia. Turkey is also a major destination for Russian tourists, with 3.6 million Russians visiting Turkey in 2011. And Russia will build Turkey’s first nuclear power plant in Mersin, providing $20 billion for its construction.

Although relations between Turkey and Russia may seem to be somewhat tarnished at present, both countries have so much in trade and cultural relations yet to be tapped. And to this end, the Turkey-Russia Social Forum, which was established at the beginning of last year, may be of great help. The forum, through which civil society organizations in both countries will come together on joint projects, is expected to be launched during Putin’s visit. “Developing cooperation in cultural and scientific areas would help to both reduce the negative impact of future crises between the two countries and increase the positive perceptions of the other,” Kemaloğlu commented.