Riyadh to Beirut: A Post-Assad Ultimatum

In a letter sent from Riyadh to the Lebanese government regarding weapons smuggling out of Syria, the Saudi authorities are in effect asking Lebanon to join the pro-opposition “Friends of Syria” group under Washington’s leadership.

A few days ago, the Lebanese state received a letter from Saudi Arabia, asking for cooperation between the two countries on information about monitoring the possible exit of weapons from Syria into Lebanese territories.

The letter has more aims that it’s contents initially reveal.

First, the request reached Lebanon through a letter sent by the Saudi foreign ministry to the Lebanese embassy in Riyadh.

“[...] In the context of its view of future events in Syria and threats related to leakage of any weapons from Syrian territories to neighboring counties and reaching Saudi territories, the kingdom’s government hopes the Lebanese government will cooperate in exchanging information on the subject,” the letter said.

The Saudi request would have been reasonable if it had been specific in requesting information about unconventional weapons.

But the letter said “any weapons.” It also did not specify whom it fears will receive the weapons.

Essentially, this means the letter is requesting that the Lebanese government join an intelligence effort which began prior to the events in Syria and was undertaken by the West and Israel.

The letter encourages monitoring the supply line arming the resistance in Lebanon through Syria, under the pretext that the latter is now a failed country.

It suggests that there is a danger to regional peace posed by the possible leakage of Syrian weapons to rogue and terrorist elements.

If Lebanon agrees to the request, it would be branding Hezbollah as a “terrorist organization” benefiting from the leakage of Syrian weapons due to the chaotic situation in the country.

Second, it would have been understandable if Saudi Arabia had sent the same request to Jordan, asking for cooperation in intelligence gathering on the transfer of any Syrian weapons to its territories.

Notably, Jordan has common borders with Saudi Arabia, which should increase Riyadh’s fears of weapons reaching its territory through groups connected to al-Qaeda. No such danger exists with Lebanon as it does not have any common borders with the kingdom.

Third, it should be noted that the letter is an application of the “Saudi high [king’s] directive no. 37328 on 10/8/1433 hijri (28/6/2012).”

The decision requested “the approval of recommendations in the minutes of the committee that consists of the foreign, defense, interior, finance, transport, and health ministries and the general intelligence command to consider a plan to prevent the smuggling of Syria’s weapons stockpile to neighboring countries, in the case of the fall of Assad’s regime.”

Recommendations 4 and 5 stipulate “boosting regional cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Jordan, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon and Turkey.”

They aim “to exchange intelligence about identified weapons smuggling operations and initiate action on the international level, especially with the United States, to increase cooperation and intelligence exchange.”

Saudi alarm over the subject would be justified if it was related to the threat of unconventional weapons reaching al-Qaeda elements.

But the letter requests that Lebanon be part of a regional axis, exchanging information “especially with the US.”

This raises concerns that there are unstated aims that can be gleaned from reading between the lines of the letter.

The most worrying of these aims is the inviting of the Lebanese government to be part of a regional and international axis which consists – judging from the countries mentioned in the “high directive” – of the “Friends of Syria” group, which is under the leadership of the US.

In recommendations 3 and 4 of the directive, it speaks about the importance of “coordinating this intelligence effort, especially with the US.”

It is worth mentioning that US diplomacy has hinted to Beirut on more than one occasion that the policy of disengagement from the events in Syria does not excuse Lebanon from its role in the “Friends of Syria” group.

Fourth, even if it is not stated clearly, the Saudi request means that Lebanon is being asked to be part of the campaign to fight the presumed outcomes being propagated by the West.

Instigated by Israel, the theory claims that the Syrian regime, fearing collapse or a foreign attack on its strategic arms supplies, will transfer some of those weapons to Hezbollah.

Riyadh’s letter concludes by saying that “the Saudi government is hoping for a reply from the Lebanese government on this issue.”

It remains to be seen how the prime minister’s office will respond, if it has not already done so.

Finally, it should be noted that the fight against the transfer of weapons from Syria to “rogue and terrorist” groups, under any circumstances, is normally the responsibility of the coordinating committee between the Lebanese and Syrian armies.

This should be the case, unless the Lebanese government also agrees that Syria is a failed state, based on the criteria of the “Friends of Syria.”

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.