100 Days Out, Gallup Poll Sees a Tie

By Jeffry Bartash

This item is republished from Marketwatch.com’s Political Watch blog.

Every candidate since 1964 with the lead in Gallup polls about 100 days before the presidential election won the Oval Office except for Michael Dukakis. So what do the polls tell us now?

Not much. The latest Gallup poll, conducted on a seven-day rolling basis, puts President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney at a tie. Both candidates received 46% support among registered voters.

What’s most striking about past polls is how sharply the electorate can move in one direction or another, even when the frontrunner wins. See the WSJ.com poll gizmo for the current Gallup poll trend, and dozens of other state and local polls. Also,  see Gallup’s site for historical polling results.

In 1992, for example, Bill Clinton held a commanding 56%-36% lead over George H.W. Bush, with independent Ross Perot siphoning off a small portion of the vote. Yet Mr. Clinton ended up with only 43% of the vote vs. 38% for Mr. Bush and 19% for Mr. Perot.

And in 1976 Jimmy Carter’s 54% to 32% advantage over Gerald Ford in mid-summer almost vanished. Carter eked out a victory over Mr. Ford by a 50% to 48% margin.

Those two races illustrate another common feature of presidential contests. The gap almost always narrows, sometimes considerably, as the election nears.

Take 1980. Ronald Reagan moved out to a commanding 45% to 29% lead over Carter in an early August poll. Yet Carter tied the race at 39% in mid-September and actually took a lead, 44% to 40%, in mid-October.

In the end, though, late-deciding voters flocked to Mr. Reagan as he won 51% to 41%.

The only candidate in the past 12 elections to come from far behind to win was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Mr. Dukakis held a 54% to 37% lead in midsummer Gallup polling, but Mr. Reagan’s vice president jumped in front in late August and never relinquished his advantage. He won 53% to 46%.

Going further back, John F. Kennedy in 1960, and Harry Truman in 1948, also registered victories despite trailing in the polls 100 days out. The Gallup data go back to 1936.

Below are the midsummer polling numbers of the past 12 elections, with the final percentage of votes in parenthesis.

2008

Barack Obama – 47% (53%)
John McCain – 41% (46%)

2004

George W. Bush – 48% (51%)
John Kerry – 47% (48%)

2000

George W. Bush – 46% (47.9%)
Al Gore – 41% (48.4%)

1996

Bill Clinton – 50% (49%)
Bob Dole – 35% (41%)
Ross Perot – 10% (8%)

1992

Bill Clinton – 56% (43%)
George H.W. Bush – 36% (37.5%)
Ross Perot – Not applicable (19%)

1988

Michael Dukakis – 54% (46%)
George H.W. Bush – 37% (53%)

1984

Ronald Reagan – 53% (59%)
Walter Mondale – 41% (41%)

1980

Ronald Reagan – 45% (51%)
Jimmy Carter – 29% (41%)
John B. Anderson – 14% (7%)

1976

Jimmy Carter – 54% (50%)
Gerald Ford – 32% (48%)