BY YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO -- As the world resumes economic growth after the steep global downturn, a familiar problem may keep Japan from following: deflation.

Economists expect the Bank of Japan in its semiannual outlook Friday to forecast that the core consumer-price index will fall for the fiscal year ending in March 2012, at a rate of at least 0.5%. That represents three years of expected deflation. The central bank has projected a decline of 1.5% for the current fiscal year and 1% for the next.

Economists see little immediate risk of Japan entering a deflationary spiral, in which price declines accelerate as ...