Page 1 of
2 A Russia
House on the Indian Ocean By M
K Bhadrakumar
The building blocks of the
historic visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin
to Pakistan in September have begun arriving in
Islamabad. It is a poignant moment in the region's
history and politics. This will be the first time
a Russian president visits Pakistan since its
birth in 1947.
The Russians are
fabricating some hardy bricks for the mansion they
hope to build in the region which forms a
beachhead on the Indian Ocean - a mansion large
enough for their friends in Pakistan and in the
neighboring countries of India, Iran and
Afghanistan to consort with them.
But
then, the very sight of the Russian bricks
infuriates the United States. The point is, this
Russia House will stand bang on the
way of the New Silk Road
that the US has been planning, which also needs to
run through Pakistan. If the access is blocked, it
becomes problematic for the US to keep together
the body and soul of the tens of thousands of its
troops who were hoping to settle down in the Hindu
Kush and Central Asia as pioneers in the "Wild
West" of China's Xinjiang and on the "soft
underbelly" of Russia.
In sum, the battle
is joined for influencing Pakistan's future. The
stakeholders are many and a keen struggle lies
ahead, since at the core of it lies a host of
other issues of profound consequence to world
politics - energy security of the two big
power-houses of Asia (China and India), the future
of the New Middle East, and of course, the US
strategy to contain Russia and China.
Moscow deputed a talented and vastly
experienced diplomat to visit Pakistan in May to
make an estimation of the lay of the land. He was
a surveyor of great experience whose reputation is
the stuff of legends in the Hindu Kush mountains -
Ambassador Zamir Kabulov, Russia's point person
for Afghanistan. By the choice of Kabulov, Moscow
also gently stated its broad intentions as regards
its architectural design, namely, that it is a
mansion with Afghan characteristics.
Following up on Kabulov's visit, Russian
experts began arriving in Pakistan. The proposals
they brought are of momentous significance to the
long-term security and stability of the region.
Moscow has zeroed in on energy cooperation as the
fulcrum of its nascent cooperation with Islamabad.
A six-year old idea reappears ...
This is a shrewd decision by Moscow since
energy security is a key issue in Pakistan's
political economy today, no less important than
terrorism. Much of Pakistan gets only a few hours'
electricity in a day and the people's rancor is
visible. Moscow has assessed that energy security
is integral to Pakistan's capacity to maintain
"strategic autonomy" as a South Asian power of
standing and, therefore, by assisting that country
in this sphere, Russian geopolitical interests in
a vast swathe of the Greater Middle East
stretching from the Persian Gulf to China's
Autonomous Region of Xinjiang would also be
served.
Besides, in immediate terms,
mutual understanding with Pakistan is becoming an
imperative need for Russia in the post-2014
scenario in Afghanistan, where the Western powers
would have withdrawn the bulk of their troops but
are nonetheless establishing an open-ended,
sizeable military presence of tens of thousands of
combat troops.
Russia and Pakistan are
joined in their opposition to the long-term
occupation of Afghanistan by the West; Russia
hopes to influence Pakistani policies with regard
to Afghanistan's future and, in turn, cooperation
with Pakistan enhances the overall Russian
resilience to play an effective role in the
stabilization of Afghanistan and in providing
security to Central Asia; and, equally, a strong
relationship with Pakistan - in the field of
energy security, in particular - can provide yet
another underpinning for Russia's strategic ties
with other key regional powers, especially China,
India, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Last but not
the least, Pakistan is a valuable interlocutor for
Russia with regard to the activities and movements
of the militants operating in North Caucasus.
Having said that, Russia weighs its
options carefully and is averse to embarking on
Soviet-era adventures that might be a drain on its
resources. The priority of the Russian leadership
lies in regenerating and innovating the economy
and building the national strength, and in the
case of Pakistan, Moscow estimates there could be
an interesting partnership of much economic value
to Russia and of mutual benefit.
All in
all, Moscow's strategy is to develop new sinews of
cooperation with Pakistan that are sustainable,
durable, and which dovetail with Russia's vibrant
strategic partnerships with China, India and Iran.
Put differently, the Russian approach
becomes a necessary regional-policy "adjustment"
or even a pre-requisite to the impending admission
of Pakistan and India into the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) as full members.
Putin is an action-oriented statesman and the
unhappy part is that six long years have passed
since he first proposed at the SCO summit in
Shanghai in June 2006 the setting up of an energy
club within the regional grouping comprising the
energy producing countries of Russia, Iran and the
Central Asian countries and the three big energy
consuming countries of China, India and Pakistan.
It was at the very same Shanghai summit of
the SCO that Putin came out openly for the first
time to say that Russia's energy leviathan Gazprom
was willing to take part in the construction of
the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Putin said
in his address, "Gazprom is ready to take part and
provide technological and, if necessary, financial
assistance, and we are willing to provide an
unlimited amount of it, especially for a project
that is certain to take off."
Putin's idea
is that the oil and gas exporters within the SCO
have been competing for promising markets (such as
China or India), and to coordinate the moves SCO
needs an energy club, which will act as a
coordination center uniting both energy producers
and the three key consumers.
One major
Central Asian player who has stayed out of the SCO
so far has been Turkmenistan, and it is a bit
awkward to speak of an energy club in the region
that doesn't include such a large-scale gas
producer. Russia also has some gas disputes with
Turkmenistan - with which, however China has a
warm relationship built around energy cooperation.
A little-noticed development of great
significance was that Chinese President Hu Jintao
invited the Turkmen president to visit Beijing at
the time of the SCO summit last month - and the
latter accepted. Suffice to say, China is keen to
harmonize its regional policies with Russia and
would even lend a hand to Moscow's efforts to
coordinate the impulses of energy security amongst
and within the SCO member countries and observer
countries.
A stunning thing is that the
proposals brought by the Russian experts in the
past week to Islamabad essentially pick up the
threads of Putin's 2006 proposal. According to the
details available so far, Moscow has made the
following proposals to Islamabad:
Russia can offer financial and technical
assistance for Pakistan's multi-billion dollar gas
and power import projects that are in the
pipeline.
Specifically, Russia is interested in
participating in the two big gas pipeline projects
on the anvil, namely, the TAPI
(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) and the
IP [Iran-Pakistan].
Russia prefers that the cooperation is
negotiated at the governmental level through
direct negotiations rather than through bidding.
Russia is also keen on participation in the
Central Asia and South Asia (CASA) project, which
was originally floated in 2006, to bring to
Pakistan via transmission lines across eastern
Afghanistan 1,000-1,300 megawatts of surplus
energy during the summer months from Tajikistan
and Kyrgyzstan. (The project has the backing of
the World Bank and the Islamic Development Bank.)
Russia will be willing to cooperate in the
exploration of oil, gas and minerals in Pakistan.
Unsurprisingly, Islamabad has eagerly
responded to the Russian proposals. The following
understanding seems to have been reached at the
talks, which concluded in Islamabad on Wednesday:
Pakistan welcomes the Russian proposals;
Specifically, Pakistan is agreeable to
negotiate the contracts with the state-owned
Russian energy companies on a
government-to-government basis and will be willing
to amend its public procurement rules accordingly;
Steps will be taken to conclude a memorandum
of understanding to move ahead with the identified
projects during Putin's visit;
As regards the IP, Pakistan has already floated the
tenders for awarding contracts for the pipeline procurement
and construction work for the US$1.5 billion
project. Russia's Gazprom may also participate.
Pakistan proposes to give weight to bids that have
a financial package attached. (China and Iran have
also shown interest in the project.)
Meanwhile, Pakistan will hand over to Russia
by mid-July a draft agreement for financial and
technical assistance from the latter for the IP
project.
Russia has agreed to finance the
rehabilitation of the Guddu and Muzaffargarh power
plants.
... which infuriates the
overlord These
developments constitute a daunting challenge to
the US' regional strategies in Asia and the Middle
East. The ramifications are quite far-reaching.
First and foremost, Pakistan's "defection" from
the Western camp all but amounts to a crippling
blow to the US' New Silk Road Initiative aimed at
rolling back the Russian and Chinese influence in
Central Asia. Along with that, the US' dreams of
getting access to the vast mineral resources of
Central Asia and Afghanistan would also suffer
setback.
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