Now we will continue our talk about the mathematical mechanisms that you can use to get the advantage while playing poker online. We carry on from the place where we stopped in the last post and continue with calculations of the expected value.
Calculating call EV: well now what we know basic terms it’s easy to calculate the call EV. EV(Call)=EV(Call and win) + EV(Call and loose =0.15 x 150 – 0.85 x 50= -20. this means in average every time you call you would lose twenty in average. This is bad, therefore making fold a better choice in this option.
Calculating the margin. For example if your opponents raise was 21.40, EV would be zero. While at first it might seem it’s the same what you do it is not, if you are playing defensively folding is better option, while if you are behind calling and hoping for some luck might be better.
Adjusting to complications. Above example is pretty simple, a real life game is very rarely so, you cannot factor in all the necessary data, not to mention you probably don’t have all the time in the world to calculate the exact EV.
On the other hand, this can be used to your advantage. For example even the option of betting further can be a huge advantage, and motivation to stay in the game as much as you can afford to, you never know when a possible monster hand (a very strong hand) might suddenly appear, and one card can make all the difference in the game. In this case you can easily go from having a low starting chance of winning the pot, and only following the game because it wasn’t too expensive, to taking precious chips from the player who had the advantage the whole time, and were counting on wining, and in the process putting a lot of money in the pot, even after it was obvious that you would take that round.
Therefore, as said before if you can afford it try to stay in every game as long as you can, when you drop out of many games because you are cheap on paying the initial bet, you lose on the chance to eventually win a much larger bet. Also every decision you make should reflect the current situation at the table, and what you expect of the game itself. As said before there are mathematical rules you can follow, which will of course raise the chance of winning, but there is something to be said about anticipating opponents moves and figuring out their patterns, without revealing your own, this is something not everyone has the feel for, but nevertheless it is something that is trained and honed through time and can be perfected with enough willpower and self-control.