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TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda heads to Beijing on Sunday as the first foreign leader to meet the Chinese leadership after the death of North Korean strongman Kim Jong-Il.
President Hu Jintao could use the occasion to assure the international community that Beijing was working to ensure a stable transition of power in its reclusive and impoverished partner, Japanese experts said.
"It is unlikely that China will reveal everything it knows. It is more likely that Chinese leaders will give assurances that they are calling on Pyongyang to ensure stability and order," said Shin Kawashima, associate professor at the University of Tokyo.
Noda's overnight visit was set for December 12 and 13 but rescheduled to Sunday and Monday at China's request, apparently for domestic reasons, which some suggested were to do with its falling on the Nanjing Massacre anniversary.
Noda, who came to power in September, will welcome the chance of more face time with Chinese leaders, as Beijing readies to promote younger leaders, with Vice President Xi Jinping seen as the most likely replacement for Hu.
Noda met with Hu in November on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Honolulu and agreed to make "reciprocal efforts" to enhance ties, often dogged by economic and territorial disputes.
But Kim's death has shifted the agenda from bilateral issues to global worries about nuclear-armed North Korea, where Kim's untested young son Kim Jong-Un appears to be taking the reins of the Stalinist state.
Almost nothing is known about him, including his grasp on the North's military and how he might respond to global calls to open up the country.
"China holds the key for assuring stability in North Korea," said Takehiko Yamamoto, professor at Waseda University.
Japan, having no ties with the North, can do little other than support China's engagement with Pyongyang, he said.
"You might call it an achievement if Japan and China only confirm their joint resolve to work together to protect peace and stability in northeast Asia including on the Korean peninsula," he said.
On the bilateral front, the two Asian giants will go over a list of touchy issues, including territorial and energy field disputes in the East China Sea as well as China's increasingly assertive naval posture in the region.
Japan will urge China towards a framework dialogue to set rules for the development of gas fields in the East China Sea, near disputed islands called Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese.
The two are still trying to heal diplomatic wounds inflicted a year ago when China reacted in fury over the arrest of one of its fishermen near the islands after he rammed his ship into Japanese coastguard vessels.
An irate Beijing cut or seriously reduced trade, diplomatic and cultural exchanges until Japan climbed down and released the trawlerman.
The leaders are expected to agree to hold periodic meetings of senior diplomats and defence officials in a bid to avoid similar confrontations.
China is expected to be fairly placatory ahead of the 40th anniversary of the normalisation of diplomatic ties in September, an event it wants to pass off smoothly.
"China wants the celebration to end with no troubles. Perhaps China will not offer anything new, but it should be seen as a reflection of their caution," Kawashima said.
Noda and Hu will likely agree on a plan for Japan to purchase Chinese government bonds, a first for an industrial power, in a move that would strengthen financial ties and diversify Tokyo's forex holdings.
From Tokyo's point of view, this will help hedge against exposure to the dollar at a time the yen has remained stubbornly high.
It will also mark a victory for Beijing as it seeks to internationalise its currency.
Noda is also expected to outline his decision to join negotiations on the US-led trans-Pacific partnership (TPP), a potential rival to China's push for a trade pact with ASEAN states and their neighbors, including Japan.
Japan, whose biggest trade partners are China followed by the US, is trying to keep its feet in both camps and maintain access to all key markets in the greater Asia-Pacific region.
Among diplomatic niceties, Noda is also expected to thank China for its assistance in the aftermath of the march earthquake and tsunami, and to ask that Beijing send a pair of pandas to hard-hit Sendai to boost morale.
-AFP/ac
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