Not Many Misses on Japanese Hitters

Last week, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's Pacific League said they'd make star shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka available to Major League teams through an auction process known as posting. As a middle infielder who led the league in hitting, the fee to acquire his rights could be quite pricey—Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka commanded $51 million in 2006—but there appears to still be skepticism over how well Japanese hitters can translate their skills into the majors.

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Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Evidence shows that fear to be unfounded. Since Ichiro Suzuki and Tsuyoshi Shinjo became the first position players to come to the U.S. in 2001, more often than not Japanese position players have produced a positive return on investment.

FanGraphs, a baseball-statistics website, calculates a player's value in terms of dollars based on his Wins Above Replacement and the amount that teams spend in free agency each year. Based on this value, most of the Japanese position players have been paid less than their major-league performance was worth during their initial contract. Mr. Suzuki was the biggest bargain, producing $37.9 million in value while being paid $14 million in salary. Infielders Tadahito Iguchi and Akinori Iwamura also played at a level far above their pay grade.

While Kaz Matsui struggled and Kosuke Fukudome looks unlikely to justify the Cubs' investment, the successes far outweigh the failures. Whichever team wins the bidding for Mr. Nishioka may get a bargain.