Global Economic Outlook 2011
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2011 provides projections of economic growth, measured as changes in Gross Domestic Product, for 2011, 2011-2015, and 2015-2020 for the global economy, the economies of 11 major regions, aggregated advanced economies, and aggregated emerging and developing economies. Taking into account macroeconomic as well as business dynamics such as changes in consumer and labor markets and relative costs, the Outlook is built via a wide range of instruments including The Conference Board Total Economy Database for 100-plus countries, Leading Economic Indexes (LEIs) for 11 countries/regions, the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Database, and exclusive input about the business environment from executives in The Conference Board member companies.
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Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product, 2000-2011 (November 2010)
| 2000-2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||||||
| Distribution of World Output 2010 | GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | |
| US | 18.3% | 2.1 | 0.4 | -2.6 | -0.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| EU-15 | 17.7% | 1.8 | 0.4 | -4.3 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Japan | 5.6% | 1.2 | 0.1 | -5.3 | -0.3 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| Other* | 8.2% | 3.3 | 0.3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| Advanced Economies | 49.8% | 2.1 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| China | 16.3% | 11.9 | 1.2 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 1.5 |
| India | 5.3% | 7.6 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 8.4 | 0.4 |
| Other developing Asia | 5.1% | 5.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 0.3 |
| Latin America | 8.0% | 3.5 | 0.3 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Middle East | 4.2% | 5.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| Africa | 2.9% | 5.6 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 0.1 |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 4.1% | 4.7 | 0.2 | -4.0 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| Other, incl. Russia** | 4.4% | 6.8 | 0.3 | -7.7 | -0.4 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
| Emerging Market and Developing Economies | 50.2% | 6.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 3.2 |
| World | 100.0% | 4.1 | -0.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | ||||
* Other advanced economies include Canada, Switzerland, Norway, Israel, Iceland, Cyprus, Korea, Australia, Taiwan Province of China, Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand
** The percentage contributions to global growth are computed as log differences and therefore do not exactly add up to the percentage growth rate for the world economy
Source: The Conference Board
Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product, 2000-2020 (November 2010)
| 2000-2010 | 2010-2015 | 2015-2020 | 2010-2020 | ||||||
| GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth** | Distribution of World Output 2020 | |
| US | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 14.8% |
| EU-15 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 13.4% |
| Japan | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 4.2% |
| Other* | 3.0 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 7.0% |
| Advanced Economies | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 39.4% |
| China | 11.4 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 1.6 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 24.1% |
| India | 7.6 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 0.6 | 8.0% |
| Other developing Asia | 5.1 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 5.7% |
| Latin America | 3.2 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 7.7% |
| Middle East | 4.8 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 4.4% |
| Africa | 5.1 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 3.1% |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 3.5 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 3.7% |
| Russia and other CIS | 4.9 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 3.9% |
| Emerging Market and Developing Economies | 6.4 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 60.6% |
| World | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 100.0% | ||||
* Other advanced economies include Canada, Switzerland, Norway, Israel, Iceland, Cyprus, Korea, Australia, Taiwan Province of China, Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand
** The percentage contributions to global growth are computed as log differences and therefore do not exactly add up to the percentage growth rate for the world economy
Source: The Conference Board
Methodological Notes
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook combines various time frames and related methods to provide projections for the next two quarters, the next three-to-four years, and the next decade. For the 2011 edition:
- Short-term (2011) projections are based on The Conference Board U.S. Economic Forecast and The Conference Board Leading Economic Indexes (LEIs) for 11 countries/regions.
- Medium-term (2011-2015) projections are based on measures of output gaps, trends in unemployment, and capacity utilization, primarily from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International Monetary Fund, European Commission and Congressional Budget Office.
- Long-term (2011-2020) views are based on projections of working-age population, total factor production, and related trends in capital growth.
All projections are further informed by business outlooks and assessments of political-institutional issues that may impact growth.